Snugglybear Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Online article here http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/jul/22/pwc-report-generation-rent-to-grow-over-next-decade Based on a PricewaterhouseCooper report. PwC press release here http://pwc.blogs.com/press_room/2015/07/almost-a-quarter-of-all-uk-households-renting-privately-by-2025-and-over-half-of-20-39-year-olds.html Torygraph story on the report here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11754122/Most-20-to-39-year-olds-will-be-in-private-rented-homes-by-2025-warns-PwC.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geezer466 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 From the Telegraph report.... Are there now more homes in the UK owned outright rather than mortgaged? If so that line was only crossed in the last couple of years. Significantly is gives the chancellor a fair bit of breathing room to act in cooling the market and lessens the chances of damage when interest rates start to rise.. George has moved a bit of a way toward BTL we should expect more of it going forward!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 From the Telegraph report.... Are there now more homes in the UK owned outright rather than mortgaged? If so that line was only crossed in the last couple of years. Significantly is gives the chancellor a fair bit of breathing room to act in cooling the market and lessens the chances of damage when interest rates start to rise.. George has moved a bit of a way toward BTL we should expect more of it going forward!! Tories are crapping themselves over this one. Every BTL takes one potential OO out of the Tory vote. On the other hand if the Tories crash the market the core vote isn't going to be too happy. Hard place meet rock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exiled Canadian Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 This graph shows that is the current status quo remains intact there are some interesting issues coming down the pipe for the political parties. As previously pointed out by many posters the "renting privately" vote is set to grow significantly - my guess is that this part of the electorate will be made up of young working people and families, the sort of voters that both parties would like to cosy up to. I guess that there are two possible policy avenues to take (which are not mutually exclusive and which might work in tandem): 1. The Renters Friend - basically tenant friendly intervention in the private rental sector. Better security of tenure, rent controls (?), steps aimed at professionalising the sector through increased institutional involvement and regulation to drive out the cowboys. (Not so palatable for the Tories as seems to contradict their free market principles.) 2. Reverse the trend - steps to help FTB's (HTB - being a flawed example), tax measures to discourage BTL landlordism (already started), restriction of credit to BTL sector (Banning IO mortgages, BoE supervision of BTLmortgage market, enthusiastic embrace for Basle III). Risks upsetting boomer voters and crashing house prices, so from a political perspective needs careful handling. Maybe the "independant" BOE will need to be requested to do some heavy lifting here. It seems to me that Labour had started down the road (albeit tentatively) of option 1, while the Tories are focussing their efforts on option 2. It will be a very interesting few years...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skomer Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Tories are crapping themselves over this one. Every BTL takes one potential OO out of the Tory vote. On the other hand if the Tories crash the market the core vote isn't going to be too happy. Hard place meet rock. George Osborne is a highly political chancellor... Tory high command and Osborne's political advisors have read the runes and can see that their core vote is going to get squeezed. as electors are forced into/choose the privately rented sector. Its already being squeezed in London....They are going to cap BTL for electoral reasons.... I expect to see more tax measures against BTL and landlords in future .... One test will be next years London Mayoral election where housing will be the No 1 issue.... we dont know who the candidates are yet but it is Labours to loose given the demographics....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 It's enough to ruin your yoga retreat - http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/22/george-osborne-ruined-yoga-retreat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_northshore_* Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 It's enough to ruin your yoga retreat - http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/22/george-osborne-ruined-yoga-retreat Parody? Or to be filed next to ice cream headaches in the library of rich world problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 (edited) That graph looks pretty suspect. The projected rate of increase in the % of households who are private renters is much slower 2015-2025 than the current rate. Same for the rate of decline in % mortgaged. Why would things slow down? Houses are still ludicrously expensive so the rate of renter->mortgaged conversion will continue to be very low. If current trends continue we could see the % of private renters overtake the % of people with mortgages in the current Parliament, never mind before 2025. The crossover point looks like being about 2018. Basically every person they fail to turn from a private renter into a mortgage slave counts double because not only have you failed to create 1 person who wants house prices to rise, you've created 1 person who actively wants them to fall. Edited July 22, 2015 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 The elephant in the room is how is gen X going to pay their rent when they retire? As a late boomer that has been castigated on these boards I would find it quite funny if gen x is more hated than the boomers. At least with the boomers you only had to pay their pension gen x you have to pay their rent as well. I think most of the MP's are gen x now so here's the controls your in charge now see if you can do any better than we did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frugal Git Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 (edited) The elephant in the room is how is gen X going to pay their rent when they retire? As a late boomer that has been castigated on these boards I would find it quite funny if gen x is more hated than the boomers. At least with the boomers you only had to pay their pension gen x you have to pay their rent as well. I think most of the MP's are gen x now so here's the controls your in charge now see if you can do any better than we did. I've said for a while that early Gen X (1964-1974) are the real golden ones. * They were old enough to get well priced housing if they acted fast enough * They had free university education * A lot will still have managed to scrape into final salary pension schemes. And - crucially - the b*stards still have their relative youth too. This is also the group most likely to get into borrow to let in my experience. It will be late gen x and early gen y who end up stuffed one way or another. Millenials will simply opt out altogether probably if nothing changes! (edited to remove the word cheap and replace with well priced). Edited July 22, 2015 by Frugal Git Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olde guto Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Huffington Post's take on this report http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/07/22/pwc-under-40s-private-rented-houses_n_7846140.html?utm_hp_ref=uk Also some examples from them of how f'd-up the rental market is in London http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/07/22/renting-in-london-ridiculous-prices_n_7847352.html?utm_hp_ref=uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 I've said for a while that early Gen X (1964-1974) are the real golden ones. * They were old enough to get well priced housing if they acted fast enough * They had free university education * A lot will still have managed to scrape into final salary pension schemes. And - crucially - the b*stards still have their relative youth too. This is also the group most likely to get into borrow to let in my experience. It will be late gen x and early gen y who end up stuffed one way or another. Millenials will simply opt out altogether probably if nothing changes! (edited to remove the word cheap and replace with well priced). Opt out? Comply and rent? Something has to break vs these horror valuations for house prices. Maybe it will be the sanity of younger workers first. US version of Funny Games. (but mixed with Leon; no women no kids rule) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_growlers_* Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Opt out? Comply and rent? Something has to break vs these horror valuations for house prices. Maybe it will be the sanity of younger workers first. US version of Funny Games. (but mixed with Leon; no women no kids rule) Yes, agree. Posted a thread about mental health and house prices while back. We need a correction or I believe we shall start to see really negative social issues. Back 2011, saw rioting in my area london. Thought this is bad, young criminal hooligans. If I saw same young people doing a London wide repeat riot again I would be much more sympathetic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Yes, agree. Posted a thread about mental health and house prices while back. We need a correction or I believe we shall start to see really negative social issues. I'm feeling it and seeing it in others. I would be sympathetic to action against targeted VI (best way to hurt rich people; make them poor - or at least give them a shakeup). Scary to even look at houses now with their monstrous valuations; it's trippy just to walk past houses. What is the point working in UK, for younger productive workers, vs these house prices? Little opportunity vs older generations, and the spiv lending/borrowing boom years, tiny crunch, with reflated measures to protect and push values back up. As a result, a generation of private renters have emerged and this will increasingly be the norm for the 20-39 age group. “There is also a rising dichotomy in the market between those (mostly older) households who own outright and those (mostly younger) households who still have a mortgage or rent to pay. “Overall, we project that the proportion of owner occupiers, with or without a mortgage, will decline from its peak of around 70% in the mid-2000s to only around 60% in 2025. The long rise in the UK owner occupation rate in the post-war years seems to have gone into reverse.” John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, added: And today FTBs more likely to be overextending to a small box of a house at near max affordability, rather than larger homes of earlier decades... and today forecast includes very low mortgage-interest rates; which could tick up into the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Yesterday's Guardian leader has generated 2,757 comments so far. Next up: Country's worst landlord blames tenants for property convictions [Warning to Venger: The word 'victim' appears more than once in the article.] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 (edited) Yesterday's Guardian leader has generated 2,757 comments so far. Next up: Country's worst landlord blames tenants for property convictions [Warning to Venger: The word 'victim' appears more than once in the article.] .as I pointed out in the thread below ..the BofE could be about to change all this.... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/205733-bof-e-could-crack-down-on-risky-buy-to-let-mortgages/?p=1102759397 Edited July 23, 2015 by South Lorne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNACR Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 TPTB will never let Joe/Joeleen Average cash out of his/her BTL empire in a big way. Eventually they'll realise they've not joined the true land owning classes and have, in fact, been duped into being badly underpaid social housing maintenance workers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 (edited) I liked the other headline - everyone is a hipster these days. Look at the clothes - they don't care about increasing inequality. There are more billionaires than ever - but are they richer? No because of low yields, billionaires have to acquire more assets to receive the same level of income as before. Housing ladder broken? Yes but it's fine we have beards and our own opinions and iphones to express those opinionated voices on social media. Fat as hell? Hell yeah! Edited July 23, 2015 by 200p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 (edited) Housing ladder broken? Yes but it's fine we have beards and our own opinions and iphones to express those opinionated voices on social media ...said no Millennial ever. In my experience most younger people are fully aware they've been shafted economically relative to older generations and are not happy about it, but they still do whatever fun/nice things they can afford to do to bring a bit of joy to their lives. Refusing to grow a beard and buy a smartphone is not going to price anybody back in to home ownership and defined benefit pensions. Edited July 23, 2015 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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