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About skomer

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  1. Going to be interesting to see how Pakistan fits into USA’s reconfigured geo-political world view going forward. Pakistan’s secret services have been pretty consistent in undermining US interests. My guess is the US will now strongly align with India … both countries have mutual enemies in China and Pakistan. Pakistan will be left to become a Chinese satellite with their expansion of the port of Gwador and all other belt and road investments
  2. It was reported yesterday by UK Health Minister that the rate of infection is doubling every 4 days (last week new reports suggested every 3 days) but the figures are open to interpretation. By yesterday (February 3rd) the reported infection rate was circa 20,000 so based on current rates (and with R0 of 4) then in weeks time it will be 80,000 by Feb 29th over 1.5 million. By March its a global pandemic ... even my booked trip to Spain might be in doubt by then. I'm starting to watch reported figures very closely hopefully infection rates will slow but there is no guarantee...
  3. There is probably a deal to be done with the small scale artisan fishermen from Normandy & Northern France & Ireland but the Dutch super trawlers the length of football fields can go elsewhere... https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-03/the-super-trawler-just-14-miles-off-brighton-capable-of-landing-6-000-tonnes-of-fish/
  4. Didn't expect to see this... but IKEA confirmed today that it is closings its Coventry store... something about a poor location and the store has never made a profit..... https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/04/ikea-close-store-jobs-coventry-city-centre
  5. Just out via the Land Registry London house prices suffer biggest slump since 2009, as pound keeps dropping - business live https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jul/17/brexit-fears-pound-lows-uk-inflation-house-prices-business-live
  6. Berlin City state is buying back privatized flats... Berlin’s mayor said the move was indicative of a wider strategy to reacquire housing stock sold to private investors in the 1990s, following rapid rises in rental costs in the city in recent years. “Berliners should be able to continue to afford living in the city,” said Michael Müller. “That is why it was and continues to be our intention to buy up apartments wherever we can, so that Berlin can regain control of its property market.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/16/berlin-buys-670-flats-on-karl-marx-allee-from-private-owner Price tag of £80m - £100m for 670 flats works out £119402 - £149,000 per flat... not sure if that is reasonable price for Berlin but Berlin often ahead on social trends so perhaps UK cities could follow (?)
  7. Article from Todays Guardian re San Francisco and impact of Tech..... SFC has a unique geography but my impression is London is heading the same way....... https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/jul/01/san-francisco-big-tech-workers-industry Some choice quotes... "The arguments against San Francisco are manifold: it’s too expensive even for people making six-figure salaries, it’s dangerous and depressingly unequal, and, increasingly, it’s kind of boring" "“The housing crisis has a huge negative impact on quality of life because of who it excludes from living near you,” said Simon Willison, a software developer who moved to San Francisco from London five years ago. “When I visit other cities I’m always jealous of their income diversity: that people who have jobs that don’t provide a six-digit salary can afford to live and work and be happy.” "“Tech salaries allow you to get by for now, but there’s no future for anyone under 40 in this city who’s not rich.” "“It’s just not sustainable for a couple to live here,” he said. “A million-plus for a home with $300,000 down? Then when we have kids, $30,000 a year for private school? Who can afford that even making $300,000 a year? …
  8. Emergency measures for Australia and its property market?.... https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/21/australian-interest-rates-head-for-1-as-emergency-measures-loom-for-economy "..........An independent economist, Lindsay David, of LD Economics, said he would favour a move to QE before any rate cuts because it would have more impact on the economy, which was suffering under the strain of falling property prices. He said the RBA governor’s remarks betrayed serious concerns. “Something severe must be happening for the RBA to be firing the few bullets they have left. Australia is facing recessional headwinds........... ............At what level of rates do we start saying that housing is a great investment? With very low rates, owning a home could be lower than renting. The dynamic could shift in favour of housing.”
  9. This was his dismal record in London and he will try to apply it across whole of UK.... was great for overseas capital but dire for ordinary Londoners and housing...... basically Londoners pushed out and replaced by global (laundered) money no questions asked ..... How long Scotland will put up with it I don't know (I'm in SE England) ... but I know he is really unpopular there and a great rallying call for Nicola .... I'm more convinced now that I will see an independent Scotland within 5 years if he becomes PM..... Then those that still identify as British will have to make some choices.....
  10. Labour reveal future plans for property sector https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/104337/labour-could-stop-renters-paying-council-tax https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/03/labour-could-speed-up-plans-to-reveal-details-of-uk-property-owners How this will go down in the country I'm not sure but I can predict what the Conservatives and Lib Dems reaction will be....
  11. Caught this article in techregister (think it is from the FT)... https://www.techregister.co.uk/the-squeezed-one-percenters-are-they-right-to-feel-worried/ Some choice quotes "A consequence of the UK property market, most notably in London and the south-east, and the above-inflation rise in school fees is that individuals who 15 years ago would have felt they could afford most things within reason now find themselves significantly stretched,” says Caroline Burkart, a director of Scorpio Partnership, a strategy consultancy to the wealth management industry...." “Perhaps when people like teachers were first being priced out of London, we should have realised that a decade or so later these forces would affect us too.” But he questions whether the 1980s and 1990s, when his cohort had it so good, really were a golden past whose norms can be recaptured...." "But is the squeeze on the 1 per cent making them change their behaviour? Only to a certain extent. Catherine, another squeezed one-percenter in south-east England, says: “If we couldn’t afford boarding, we’d trim in other areas, or go flexi-boarding, or find a good day school.” If her family couldn’t afford to do that? “We’d move to the catchment area of a good state school. A grammar, perhaps.”
  12. Hot off the press... http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1551348846908867800/foxtons-group-swings-to-annual-loss-on-weak-london-property-market.aspx LONDON (Alliance News) - Foxtons Group PLC on Thursday said it swung to an annual loss due to the continued deterioration in the UK property sales market. For 2018, the estate agent posted a pretax loss of GBP17.2 million compared to a GBP6.5 million profit a year ago. This decline was mainly driven by lower revenue and investment in people, brand and technology, Foxtons explained. Revenue fell 5% year-on-year to GBP111.5 million, from GBP117.6 million, as a "resilient lettings performance" was offset by weakness in the London sales market, the company explained. Lettings revenue rose 1% year-on-year to GBP67.0 million while sales revenue dropped 15% to GBP36.2 million. "Our performance in 2018 was impacted by a further deterioration in the sales market, with transaction levels falling for another year from their already low levels. We are pleased with the lettings business and the investment we made earlier in the year helped to drive a good second half performance," Chief Executive Nic Budden said. Looking ahead, the company said its sales outlook remains unchanged while it expects momentum in the lettings business to progress. Foxtons did not propose a dividend for the year. Last year it had proposed to shareholders a payout of 0.70 pence per share held. Foxtons shares were trading down 1.1% at 60.53 pence each on Thursday morning.
  13. Based on recent polling after the emergence of the 'Independent Group' last week the anti-Conservative vote would be split resulting in May (or successor) with biggest number of seats, possibly a majority on a reduced Conservative vote percentage ..... It would be a rerun of 1983 election again when Thatcher wins a landslide on 42% of the vote..... LibDems/TIG & Labour fighting it out in a FPTP election... not a good outcome... http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/MoS-Deltapoll190223_pdf.pdf
  14. Finland's recent universal basic income experiment will be coming to an end.... mixed results https://www.wired.co.uk/article/universal-basic-income-policy-universal-credit ".....What the researchers found was that the income people received made an negligible difference in employment rates, but it did make a difference to people’s wellbeing...."
  15. Another take on the wolfstreet article... its gaining traction... Let the Bloodbath begin........ https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/let-the-bloodbath-begin-house-prices-in-sydney-and-melbourne-could-halve-in-worst-crash-since-1890s/news-story/5918ea13042d5f819cb13c77629f060a#.y0wyv If this proves to be correct I expect the first London Pret to have a majority of Australian Servers in 18 to 24months time..
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