Will Greece Be The Pin That Pops The Bubble?

[ChumpusRex]

Hmm, I wonder how much of Greece's deficit is interest, if they default is their economy remotely sustainable , I suspect not.

Alternatively will they black mail the ecb and IMF in some way. I suspect yes and hence we will end up bailing them out only charging them less. That is until we need bailing out.At that point they will bail us out with the money we lent them.

The forecast figures for 2015 are roughly:

debt interest: €3.3 billion

Total deficit: €3.0 billion

Budget surplus pre-interest: €300 million

Their budget is just about getting sustainable now, but the debt interest is a huge drag. They potentially could get away with a hard default (if they defaulted on everything).

[Mrs Bear]

This must mean you've taken your travel advice from the daily mail and clearly not spent any considerable time in USA / Canada, Greece or russia to realise how much More European the norms and values here are compared to the usa . Don't base your opinion on hear say and imagination. And to compare russia to greece....

+1, although I think there are huge variations within the US. Democrats e.g. where my sister lives on East Coast, or niece in Berkeley in California, are a massively different species from the redneck Bible Belt.

[Guest TheBlueCat]

Governments love to describe their positions in markets as belonging to "taxpayers" but this is propaganda and is contractually false. The government is a separate legal entity from the people who live in that country. Other eurozone governments may have decided to take a position in the Greek government bond market but this is their own stupid decision, not taxpayers'. If Greece defaults there is no need for other eurozone governments to pass the loss on to taxpayers in their countries, they can pass it on to their own bondholders instead.

Right, so the German government should make holders of bunds take a haircut if the Greek's default? If they did that, they'd then have to have insane interest on their own new issued debt and who'd pay for that exactly? Any more bright ideas?

[Venger]

Most UK sheeple are quite well off, once debt servicing is excluded. Why not just have a big default and everyone would be better off?

Many people would be alive and well and happy, if they weren't already dead.

Why not just take renters savings towards, and give it direct to landlords/mortgage holders, and double or treble house prices overnight?

There is debt in the system, that people chose to take on, which could help be a cause of hpc, forcing owners to sell for lower prices, bringing all house prices down. Without debt in the system, under this new monetary system we'd be earning less and house prices would still cost a lot more.

[Dorkins]

Right, so the German government should make holders of bunds take a haircut if the Greek's default? If they did that, they'd then have to have insane interest on their own new issued debt and who'd pay for that exactly? Any more bright ideas?

What's the alternative? A German Chancellor standing up and telling the German electorate that they're going to suffer decades of tax hikes so that holders of Greek/Spanish/Italian/French bonds can be made whole?

[Roman Roady]

What's the alternative? A German Chancellor standing up and telling the German electorate that they're going to suffer decades of tax hikes so that holders of Greek/Spanish/Italian/French bonds can be made whole?

Or a German Chancellor not telling the German electorate the truth...but hiking taxes anyway?

[spyguy]

Hmm, yes. Greece's problems can be solved by just leaving the Euro.

Good luck if all its debt remain denominated in Euros.

They might be able to default on all or some of the debt but that would involve defaulting on a lot of state pensions and massive reduction in state employment.

Look, Greece is a corrupt, p1sspot country. The restructuring so far has just been about getting rid of all the state employees who don't turn up for work.

I would guess Greece have been making a big thing about being mates with Uncle Vlad. That has probably backfired now.

[Killer Bunny]

The EU/Euro/ECB is a major impediment to economic prosperity but those who say it is the the be all and end all are in cloud cuckoo land. Bring back capitalism / let mkt set rates / ban qe / liberalise employment laws / slash spending are the routes to prosperity not communism and getting out of euro (which would bring temporary uplift and they would all say 'told you')

[Damik]

Hmm, yes. Greece's problems can be solved by just leaving the Euro.

How, by printing it's own toilet paper? With Euros at least you know you have to cut here and there. With Drachna or Lira you just print the deficit every year so you end up with the toilet paper like Lira before Euro.

Who exactly would like this? How this exectly help?

It is not the Euro problem. It is the problem of left wingers spending money they do not have at the first place to win the elections ...

Edited December 30, 2014 by Damik

[oracle]

This must mean you've taken your travel advice from the daily mail and clearly not spent any considerable time in USA / Canada, Greece or russia to realise how much More European the norms and values here are compared to the usa . Don't base your opinion on hear say and imagination. And to compare russia to greece....

hahahaha!

wait until the chips fall and the real economic and civic nasty stuff gets going.

we only "act" european because we've had a 40 year brainwash-fest telling us that we are,

unfortunately now, we are seeing the resurfacing of the "old" europe that does fascist dictatorships(absolute rule by despot is the default position on the continent), and inquisitions....something that we as a country(scotland included) have been opposed to and fought against for over 700 years.

this is why,despite all odds, we are the same as the USA in that respect...they still remember at heart the reasons their forefathers go on the mayfower to flee the old world,and now they have to contend with the same political infiltration as we do.

when the crap hits the fan,we will stand as one.

and as for greece and russia, well they both are under just as much threat from this faction that consider them to be "heretic" as well.(which in a way works to our favour because we will eventually need russian help to rid the northern hemishpere of this problem)

that is also why the PTB ar working so feverishly to forment the most deadly conflict between ourelves and russia( if you've not seen it, the james bond "siamese fighting fish" clip is a very good analogy of what's presently going on)

the only hope now for europe is a true breakaway "northern" faction that stays well out of any expansionist tendencies their southern bosses are demanding...and that would include being prepared to attack them if they do not take no for an answer.

Edited December 30, 2014 by oracle

[spyguy]

How, by printing it's own toilet paper? With Euros at least you know you have to cut here and there. With Drachna or Lira you just print the deficit every year so you end up with the toilet paper like Lira before Euro.

Who exactly would like this? How this exectly help?

It is not the Euro problem. It is the problem of left wingers spending money they do not have at the first place to win the elections ...

I was being sarky!

It would not matter if Greece used Euros, Drama, Conch shells.

The attitude of the Greeks means that they'd destroy + debase any currency.

[oracle]

Look on the bright side, no Russians next summer.

i beg to differ.

if russia plays its cards right then it can become quite a vibrant place once again.

the russians aren't stupid, they recognise they have a falling brith rate, and the mad mullahs on the southern flank of their country will be giving them problems too( they are just as infidel as everybody else).

wrt the middle east stuff I think they may actually come out fighting on isreals side( about 1/3 of present isreal population originate from russia anyway).

the saudis have already pissed putin off, and he wants a mediterranean warm water port(which he won't get in syria because that will be blown to bits),

so greece/cyprus would look like quite a good substitute...especially so if the EU continue with their thievery.

they also want to take back constantinople at some stage to fulfill their new byzantine empire-so they have to find a suitable way to antagonise turkey....I suggest parking a couple of aircraft carriers on cyprus in the thick of this hamas/hezbollah/saudi/iranian etc war and claiming it back as greek territory via a russian protectorate would be a suitable catalyst.

I think a political deal with putin or medvedev is achievable

if it was zhirinovsky then it would be all out war.

Edited December 30, 2014 by oracle

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

They might be able to default on all or some of the debt but that would involve defaulting on a lot of state pensions and massive reduction in state employment.

They've already done both of those to a reasonable extent. The Greek public have had more haircut than the bondholders which is why i) austerity hasn't worked and ii) the anti-austerity left look like they could win the next election.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

i beg to differ.

if russia plays its cards right then it can become quite a vibrant place once again.

wrt the middle east stuff I think they may actually come out fighting on isreals side( about 1/3 of present isreal originate from russia anyway).

the saudis have already pissed putin off, and he wants a mediterranean warm water port(which he won't get in syria because that will be blown to bits),

so greece/cyprus would look like quite a good substitute.

they also want to take back constantinople at some stage to fulfill their new byzantine empire-so they have to find a suitable way to antagonise turkey....I suggest parking a couple of aircraft carriers on cyprus in the thick of this hamas/hezbollah/saudi/iranian etc war and claiming it back as greek territory via a russian protectorate would be a suitable catalyst.

I think a political deal with putin or medvedev is achievable

if it was zhirinovsky then it would be all out war.

I was talking about rude, obnoxious, sour faced Russian tourists now that their currency has been been trashed.

As for comparing the Russians to the Greeks, I have met many Greeks and few Russians but I have never got the impression the Russians are anything like the Greeks. Just because I am Orthodox Christian doesn't make Russian either.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

Greece will be held up as an example why austerity doesn't work but it's no different from deficit spending stimulus in the UK. The young and the not wealthy are getting nothing either way.

[oracle]

I was talking about rude, obnoxious, sour faced Russian tourists now that their currency has been been trashed.

As for comparing the Russians to the Greeks, I have met many Greeks and few Russians but I have never got the impression the Russians are anything like the Greeks. Just because I am Orthodox Christian doesn't make Russian either.

it does when pope kyril has something to do with russian foreign policy.

[R K]

The EU/Euro/ECB is a major impediment to economic prosperity but those who say it is the the be all and end all are in cloud cuckoo land. Bring back capitalism / let mkt set rates / ban qe / liberalise employment laws / slash spending are the routes to prosperity not communism and getting out of euro (which would bring temporary uplift and they would all say 'told you')

What QE? germany have banned it in case you hadnt noticed.

Spending has been slashed in greece

Real rate in greece is insanely high - hence the ongoing depression/mass unemployment caused by your "route to prosperity"

greek output has been slashed by around 30%

So your "theory" has been implemented and we know the result. Youve had an empirical real life test. It hasnt brought prosperity it as brought economic collapse, high unemployment, lowered living standards and increased debt.

Why would anyone carry out an experiment that proves they are wrong yet continue to insist they are right and even worse propose extendin it to ruin more economies! Bonkers.

[RentingForever]

Why not just take renters savings towards, and give it direct to landlords/mortgage holders, and double or treble house prices overnight?

That's pretty much what's been happening, just stretched over the past 15 years.

[silver surfer]

What QE? germany have banned it in case you hadnt noticed.

Spending has been slashed in greece

Real rate in greece is insanely high - hence the ongoing depression/mass unemployment caused by your "route to prosperity"

greek output has been slashed by around 30%

So your "theory" has been implemented and we know the result. Youve had an empirical real life test. It hasnt brought prosperity it as brought economic collapse, high unemployment, lowered living standards and increased debt.

Why would anyone carry out an experiment that proves they are wrong yet continue to insist they are right and even worse propose extendin it to ruin more economies! Bonkers.

+1

Greece is an austerity driven basket case,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11283931/Nine-charts-showing-why-Greece-has-to-leave-the-euro.html

[Bill D'arblay]

Look, Greece is a corrupt, p1sspot country. The restructuring so far has just been about getting rid of all the state employees who don't turn up for work.

So is the U.K. - although in our case you can add State endorsed kiddy fiddling on an industrial scale to the long list.

[thejaksie]

hahahaha!

wait until the chips fall and the real economic and civic nasty stuff gets going.

we only "act" european because we've had a 40 year brainwash-fest telling us that we are,

unfortunately now, we are seeing the resurfacing of the "old" europe that does fascist dictatorships(absolute rule by despot is the default position on the continent), and inquisitions....something that we as a country(scotland included) have been opposed to and fought against for over 700 years.

this is why,despite all odds, we are the same as the USA in that respect...they still remember at heart the reasons their forefathers go on the mayfower to flee the old world,and now they have to contend with the same political infiltration as we do.

when the crap hits the fan,we will stand as one.

and as for greece and russia, well they both are under just as much threat from this faction that consider them to be "heretic" as well.(which in a way works to our favour because we will eventually need russian help to rid the northern hemishpere of this problem)

that is also why the PTB ar working so feverishly to forment the most deadly conflict between ourelves and russia( if you've not seen it, the james bond "siamese fighting fish" clip is a very good analogy of what's presently going on)

the only hope now for europe is a true breakaway "northern" faction that stays well out of any expansionist tendencies their southern bosses are demanding...and that would include being prepared to attack them if they do not take no for an answer.

You make many points some of which certainly valid but don't forget your original statement made a quite different point.

On reflection perhaps you do share similarities with American survivalists. But I still believe that most brits - adjusted for language barrier - would feel significantly more at home in a for instance French society with shared healthcare, schooling, economic, and secular values compared to it's usa equivalent of brutaly unequal healthcare, winner takes all tax system, , patriot ridden defense mentality, and where 6 out 10 believe Jesus will return before 2050. Of course they do speak English but they did fight to break free from the imperial rule of the brits (wait is that a European 'rule')?

Celebrate differences but also celebrate steps that have been madein the past 60 yyears exactly to stop a repeat of European war history

[Damik]

I was being sarky!

It would not matter if Greece used Euros, Drama, Conch shells.

The attitude of the Greeks means that they'd destroy + debase any currency.

Indeed and sorry!

Well the Greeks will vote for left wing government, which will not be given any more money. And if they do not like it they should go.

Plus Portugees and Spanish with their tough austerity policy will push for the Greek exit as well. There is nothing like a free lunch and there is no point to add fuel to the fire ...

[dances with sheeple]

Many people would be alive and well and happy, if they weren't already dead.

Why not just take renters savings towards, and give it direct to landlords/mortgage holders, and double or treble house prices overnight?

There is debt in the system, that people chose to take on, which could help be a cause of hpc, forcing owners to sell for lower prices, bringing all house prices down. Without debt in the system, under this new monetary system we'd be earning less and house prices would still cost a lot more.

I was making a sarcastic observation on the notion that Greece is in great shape....if we take their debt out of the equation! They are not in great shape, and neither is the average sheep, but if there was debt forgiveness in the UK then there would be a very big HPC, because people could afford to drop the price to shift property they need to sell. IMO. I don`t expect that the PTB will want large scale debt forgiveness though, because a fair few of the precious banks would simply blow up?

Edited December 30, 2014 by dances with sheeple

[winkie]

...most who get the stuff they want handed on a plate would take it, much money is made from others indebtedness and consumption.....should Greece have joined in the first place, did they pass the test?

[Steppenpig]

greek output has been slashed by around 30%

Measured Greek output during credit bubble 30%+ higher than sustainable on economic fundamentals.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Steppenpig