Where Are We At....

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2007 - Bubble collapses

2009 - Government sets 0.5 Interest rates and prints money. Prices stop collapsing and rebound slightly then continue their fall.

2013 - Government opens the tap of free sub prime money and prices rebound sharply ( in london mainly ) Savings rates plunge to around 1%

2014 - Media hype surrounding housing market sees insane 2007+20% asking prices.

2004-2014 - No/low wage rises

2010-2014 - Government cuts see's more debt/borrowing

Where do they think the money will come from to pay for these silly prices/debts ?

There seems no difference now between 2007 and 2014 except we are al on the hook for the debt this time.

Everyone can see for themselves the problems caused by the 2007 bubble...who actually believes what the government are trying to do is beneficial in any way to the country ?

[Eddie_George]

The politicians have never done anything for the benefit of the country, only themselves - short term policies to keep them in power and on the gravy train, and for their old school/university chums in the City.

[swissy_fit]

The politicians have never done anything for the benefit of the country, only themselves - short term policies to keep them in power and on the gravy train, and for their old school/university chums in the City.

Major and co let the crash happen to some extent, they didn't sell out to anything like the degree that Blair and the Condems have done, and they must have known it meant electoral defeat especially when faced by the newly-bought(by the banks) Labour Party led by Blair.

Not saying they were great, mind, just that the degree of corruption at the top seems to have greatly increased.

[swissy_fit]

2007 - Bubble collapses

2009 - Government sets 0.5 Interest rates and prints money. Prices stop collapsing and rebound slightly then continue their fall.

2013 - Government opens the tap of free sub prime money and prices rebound sharply ( in london mainly ) Savings rates plunge to around 1%

2014 - Media hype surrounding housing market sees insane 2007+20% asking prices.

2004-2014 - No/low wage rises

2010-2014 - Government cuts see's more debt/borrowing

Where do they think the money will come from to pay for these silly prices/debts ?

There seems no difference now between 2007 and 2014 except we are al on the hook for the debt this time.

Everyone can see for themselves the problems caused by the 2007 bubble...who actually believes what the government are trying to do is beneficial in any way to the country ?

It's beneficial to the banks (i e keeps them in existence) and the rentier class.

The country? An outdated concept now.

[Dweller]

2007 - Bubble collapses

2009 - Government sets 0.5 Interest rates and prints money. Prices stop collapsing and rebound slightly then continue their fall.

2013 - Government opens the tap of free sub prime money and prices rebound sharply ( in london mainly ) Savings rates plunge to around 1%

2014 - Media hype surrounding housing market sees insane 2007+20% asking prices.

2004-2014 - No/low wage rises

2010-2014 - Government cuts see's more debt/borrowing

Where do they think the money will come from to pay for these silly prices/debts ?

There seems no difference now between 2007 and 2014 except we are al on the hook for the debt this time.

Everyone can see for themselves the problems caused by the 2007 bubble...who actually believes what the government are trying to do is beneficial in any way to the country ?

Will this have ANY impact on the most recent bubble madness ?

You have to be able to afford your mortgage

But then one hell of a lot of people can't afford their rent : 104% increase in employed people claiming housing benefit

With 301 people added every day at a total cost of £1.7 million a day . (How many council homes could have been built with that money, homes which might last longer than the usual new builds!)

But hey, we are not in bubble territory...are we ?

[Billy soy]

Surely the cost of mass producing social housing and its upkeep is less than it would be to continue increasing housing/landlord welfare indefinitely.

The state used to be responsible for 40% of all house building in the country. That's a lot of supply.

[Democorruptcy]

2007 - Bubble collapses

2009 - Government sets 0.5 Interest rates and prints money. Prices stop collapsing and rebound slightly then continue their fall.

2013 - Government opens the tap of free sub prime money and prices rebound sharply ( in london mainly ) Savings rates plunge to around 1%

2014 - Media hype surrounding housing market sees insane 2007+20% asking prices.

2004-2014 - No/low wage rises

2010-2014 - Government cuts see's more debt/borrowing

Where do they think the money will come from to pay for these silly prices/debts ?

There seems no difference now between 2007 and 2014 except we are al on the hook for the debt this time.

Everyone can see for themselves the problems caused by the 2007 bubble...who actually believes what the government are trying to do is beneficial in any way to the country ?

What are you going to do about it? What's your plan for you and your family?

[rh2409]

The politicians have never done anything for the benefit of the country, only themselves - short term policies to keep them in power and on the gravy train, and for their old school/university chums in the City.

They're not politicians, they are "puppeticians." Democracy has become a farce, elections are nothing more than a reshuffling of pig snouts around the trough as the political/puppet class jockey for position to best serve, and be rewarded by their corporate paymasters. Democracy is dead. Welcome to the Plutocracy.

People tell me that I'm slightly Odd...

The Grisly end of The Greedy One Percent, a modern Fairytale (or is it?)

[Errol]

Where are we at?

In Wonderland, that's where.

[slacker]

I seem to be turning in to devil advocate role here but ...

Outside of London commute distance and holiday villages I'm not seeing a boom yet (on transactions, I am seeing high pricing).

Prices in non-Hale Manchester are still 'cheap' - flats in city centre look stupid cheap compared to salaries in centre.

There are some daft priced properties listed in other areas, but they are not selling. Searching locally there are stacks of 500K+ properties this year but only a handful of STC. One house came on this week for 400K which looked odd as 1 acre, 5 bed, it's STC already - but that's first for a long time.

London could just top-out where it is now and everywhere else could take 3 years to catch up to same multiples London is on.

The next move will be to calm London (maybe withdraw HTB2 inside M25) but I can't see BOE doing anything outside M25 right now.

Even if BOE do - I don't see higher IR being a threat, a minority of properties have debt against them and most of that debt is fixed IR.

HPC (website) is quiet these days, a lot of old faces have gone, I suspect sheepishly as they've just HTB2'd.

The hard core will still be here in 3 years - waiting for our stopped clocks to be right.

[tomandlu]

I seem to be turning in to devil advocate role here but ...

Everything does seem to be fairly, well, boring at the moment. The chocks are vaguely in place, but it's all a bit precarious to the discerning. I wouldn't say it's the eye of the storm, or even the calm before the storm - more, "well, one strong gust, and that's going to fall right over, mate."

I do sometimes wonder if Osborne was hoping for a black swan on which to blame 'events' - something external to their policies so that they can say "see, it wasn't our fault - now, this is going to hurt..."

Edited April 11, 2014 by tomandlu

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Outside of London commute distance and holiday villages I'm not seeing a boom yet (on transactions, I am seeing high pricing).

Yet....not will we....it's a mirage, some peopl ein london ( the people in th know will be selling off now to some egyt...cue the music....

[slacker]

I think a lot of us are still thinking things are like 80s/90s when IR mattered as few people had equity and everyone had massive (relative) mortgages.

That's not case now - boomers have paid a lot of that off - few 20 / 30yr olds have IR dependant property debt.

BTL is a thing now - people don't have to sell property like they did (for inheritance, divorce etc.) they can just BTL it ... so what if you've got NE - rent it out until prices rise again.

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

2007 - Bubble collapses

2009 - Government sets 0.5 Interest rates and prints money. Prices stop collapsing and rebound slightly then continue their fall.

2013 - Government opens the tap of free sub prime money and prices rebound sharply ( in london mainly ) Savings rates plunge to around 1%

2014 - Media hype surrounding housing market sees insane 2007+20% asking prices.

2004-2014 - No/low wage rises

2010-2014 - Government cuts see's more debt/borrowing

Where do they think the money will come from to pay for these silly prices/debts ?

There seems no difference now between 2007 and 2014 except we are al on the hook for the debt this time.

Everyone can see for themselves the problems caused by the 2007 bubble...who actually believes what the government are trying to do is beneficial in any way to the country ?

From my perspective [as a systems engineer] the system has not changed / been reformed, so expect more of the same.

The problem the government faces is that the system has a limit which is 0% interest rates. They will have to overcome this hurdle to continue like they have been for the last 30 years.

Using my back of envelope calculations, house prices 'could' rise 30% to 50% from their 2007 highs before everything blows up again. I base the calculation purely on mortgage repayment affordability and low interest rates.

At that point they will hit a wall where rates cannot be lowered any more. The only rely way around it is for government subsidy via MIR and interest free loans, but I don't believe that that will last long supporting prices.

At the inflection point I would expect the printing presses to really start up. We are talking hundreds of trillions of printing to keep the global system alive. If the system does not undergo radical reform then do not expect a different outcome from last time.

The two main forced changes to the system I can identify are interest rates reaching 0% and demographics pushing the have-not's into power. It will 'only' be 6 years before the number of have-not's outnumber the boomer.

My money is on greed blowing up the system, leading to global money printing and massive global inflation. Today will look like the good old days to most.

UK population 2014

UK population 2020

Interest rates

[slacker]

I do sometimes wonder if Osborne was hoping for a black swan on which to blame 'events' - something external to their policies so that they can say "see, it wasn't our fault - now, this is going to hurt..."

This was my one of my previous views, but I just hadn't calculated how much scaffolding the government was willing to put up - or the fact that scaffolding would be an electoral win as it supports the biggest voting demographic right now.

Yet....not will we....it's a mirage, some peopl ein london ( the people in th know will be selling off now to some egyt...cue the music....

Again this was my view too - but my wife works for a BTL baron, who has made me look daft for arguing at dinner parties it was all going t*ts soon, he is minting it right now - he's got massive elasticity if there is some correction - they have longterm investors funding 30% of property costs with cash, borrowing balance fixed for 5 years at 1.5% IR, yielding 10%+ and their asset values have doubled since 2009. In the unlikely event it corrects they'll just buy the dip.

[tomandlu]

but my wife works for a BTL baron, who has made me look daft for arguing at dinner parties it was all going t*ts soon

Ouch - that must hurt...

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

I think a lot of us are still thinking things are like 80s/90s when IR mattered as few people had equity and everyone had massive (relative) mortgages.

That's not case now - boomers have paid a lot of that off - few 20 / 30yr olds have IR dependant property debt.

BTL is a thing now - people don't have to sell property like they did (for inheritance, divorce etc.) they can just BTL it ... so what if you've got NE - rent it out until prices rise again.

Back in the early 1900's rentiers ruled the UK until the haven-not't got into power and built millions of low cost council houses. It looks like what we see today is a reversal of the trend.

[slacker]

Ouch - that must hurt...

Not so much as regretting working my **** off for 20 years creating real things that generate real money, which the tax system squeezes every drop of blood from ... when all the not-broke people I meet seem to have done something 'in property'.

[dances with sheeple]

What are you going to do about it? What's your plan for you and your family?

Judge wealth as - How many months/years can you survive without working, not how big your mortgage is, that is plan 1, and all I have at the moment. The main job I do is not going away any time soon, and in theory I could do it with the same clients when I/They are 80, if the state still exists to fund it that is.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

it sounds just like 2007 again...except...its not. the tills are empty..Joe public is skint and...rents or house prices the system is at breaking point...look at the graph on the front page...loo at the historic interest rate graph...look at the land registry graph...wholey unnatural and without precedence....the banks might think they are saved but the rest of us are in a mess...they need us more than they think.

this madness has some way to go...the get out the country is still the only sensible route.

Edited April 11, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Judge wealth as - How many months/years can you survive without working, not how big your mortgage is, that is plan 1, and all I have at the moment. The main job I do is not going away any time soon, and in theory I could do it with the same clients when I/They are 80, if the state still exists to fund it that is.

+1

i can like for ages if i loose my job, not so sure this is the case for all the debt holders.

[dances with sheeple]

it sounds just like 2007 again...except...its not. the tills are empty..Joe public is skint and...rents or house prices the system is at breaking point...look at the graph on the front page...loo at the historic interest rate graph...loo at the psychiatry graph...wholey unnatural and without precedence....the banks lmight think they are saved but the rest of us are in a mess...

this madness has some way to go...the get out the country is still the only sensible route.

Nah, just chill, get popcorn and beer. I must admit that around commute time the vibe from pedestrians and drivers is pretty nasty, mucho people very stressed about bills/mortgages I think, but overall the UK isn`t too bad? We just need the housing bubble to be popped once and for all to get back to some kind of economic and social normality?

[gf3]

From my perspective [as a systems engineer] the system has not changed / been reformed, so expect more of the same.

The problem the government faces is that the system has a limit which is 0% interest rates. They will have to overcome this hurdle to continue like they have been for the last 30 years.

Using my back of envelope calculations, house prices 'could' rise 30% to 50% from their 2007 highs before everything blows up again. I base the calculation purely on mortgage repayment affordability and low interest rates.

At that point they will hit a wall where rates cannot be lowered any more. The only rely way around it is for government subsidy via MIR and interest free loans, but I don't believe that that will last long supporting prices.

At the inflection point I would expect the printing presses to really start up. We are talking hundreds of trillions of printing to keep the global system alive. If the system does not undergo radical reform then do not expect a different outcome from last time.

The two main forced changes to the system I can identify are interest rates reaching 0% and demographics pushing the have-not's into power. It will 'only' be 6 years before the number of have-not's outnumber the boomer.

My money is on greed blowing up the system, leading to global money printing and massive global inflation. Today will look like the good old days to most.

UK population 2014

UK population 2020

Interest rates

The thing I take away from this is 64.3 million in 2014 67.2 million in 2020

So about half a million extra people a year. How many more houses do we need to house them and how many are we building.

We drastically need to cut immigration in my view we cant out build the population growth.

[winkie]

Where are we at?

In Wonderland, that's where.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Major and co let the crash happen to some extent, they didn't sell out to anything like the degree that Blair and the Condems have done, and they must have known it meant electoral defeat especially when faced by the newly-bought(by the banks) Labour Party led by Blair.

Not saying they were great, mind, just that the degree of corruption at the top seems to have greatly increased.

behave, any politician inthe developed world saw a spike in interest rates in the early 90s, which saw a number of countries struggling and dealing with it, in 2008 there was a regression in interest rates, its laughable ignoring the macroeconomic picture. Its that retarded micro myopic nature of people that guarantees why we are where we are

For some reason people think the tories today are not the tories at any other time, Labourites today think the same. Everyones cut from the same cloth and they have the same time based rara arguments as each other

I guess the answer is people fundamentally want to be ruled and theyll grab hold of any chuff to justify their team

i guess this is why the popn are carbon copying their indignation of expenses that they had a few years ago, whilst in reality not giving a sh@t about it or theyd have sorted it out the first time

Edited April 11, 2014 by Georgia O'Keeffe