Ruffneck Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 -10.1 Billion -8.5 Billion forecast http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1339286400&do=displayweek&month=6&year=2012#chart=40248 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trampa501 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 -10.1 Billion -8.5 Billion forecast http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1339286400&do=displayweek&month=6&year=2012#chart=40248 But, but We've been persuing a low value pound strategy! It can't be this way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buccaneer Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 But, but We've been persuing a low value pound strategy! It can't be this way! Anyone else think that the UK economy has gone off the cliff and is accelerating rapidly downwards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruffneck Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 Anyone else think that the UK economy has gone off the cliff and is accelerating rapidly downwards? As late as 2000/2001 it was possible for UK to turn the ship around and become a strong economy and start paying off the debt. It is impossible now , default is the inevitable outcome, the only question is when? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmf Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 As late as 2000/2001 it was possible for UK to turn the ship around and become a strong economy and start paying off the debt. It is impossible now , default is the inevitable outcome, the only question is when? Agreed. The tories were simply taking over an oil tanker 10 foot from the rocks. Turn the wheel if you like - it's going to make no difference. Let's hope this utterly screws people who have smugly been living off the debt of the next generation. Most will be too old to work, employment prospects will be dire. Sorry pops, I don't want a big issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Any link to the fact that it's the worst on record? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 (edited) Any link to the fact that it's the worst on record? Looks like only FX news feeds onto it at the moment, the main stream media will most likely just ignore it, I thought this was good http://www.forexpros.com/news/economic-indicators/u.k.-trade-balance-falls-more-than-expected-234871 Forexpros - The U.K.’s trade balance fell more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Friday. FX Pros? WTF Strangely Sterling rallied on the back of this news, so maybe it doesn't matter Edited June 15, 2012 by neil324 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Looks like only FX news feeds onto it at the moment, the main stream media will most likely just ignore it, I thought this was good http://www.forexpros...expected-234871 FX Pros? WTF Couldn't find any reference in there to these being the worst figures on record??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Couldn't find any reference in there to these being the worst figures on record??? Some of the FX feeds state it as a record. Anyway looks a mute point, Sterling rallied when it printed at 9.30am. Maybe some more experienced can comment on that though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Any link to the fact that it's the worst on record? You can find the excel records sheet here. This is the 2nd-highest monthly goods deficit, but the highest 3-monthly aggregate. [bTW, this is the April 2012 trade balance, not May as stated in the OP.] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 You can find the excel records sheet here. This is the 2nd-highest monthly goods deficit, but the highest 3-monthly aggregate. [bTW, this is the April 2012 trade balance, not May as stated in the OP.] Hence the latest round of "stealth QE" to devalue Sterling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Clearly, the notion of exporting our way to success is little more than a pipedream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Clearly, the notion of exporting our way to success is little more than a pipedream. If we could export unemployment, despair, crap weather or debt, we'd be fine. Otherwise... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nationalist Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 As late as 2000/2001 it was possible for UK to turn the ship around and become a strong economy and start paying off the debt. It is impossible now , default is the inevitable outcome, the only question is when? The debt is manageable. It would be a good idea to stop borrowing more right now, but the £1 trillion we owe can be coped with - it would be like someone having a mortgage of less than one year's salary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 But, but We've been persuing a low value pound strategy! It can't be this way! Ah, you see clearly we're not doing enough printing and 0.5% base rates are simply punishingly high! Let's monetise another few hundred billion quid of our debt and cut rates to zero. When something isn't working, it always makes sense to do more of it, after all ... In view of the rather obvious fact that the British economy is totally shagged, I wonder how long before markets twig that the UK is not some sort of safe haven just because it's superficially less ugly that the neighbouring Eurozone thanks to the authorities willingness to monetise debt to paper over the cracks in the short term? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lewis Gordon Pugh Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I don't think the debt or the economy is the real problem. I think the real problem is the fact that we have corrupt idiot politicians, who are controlled by banking elite psychopaths, and a moronic mainstream media. Plus the majority of the population is ignorant, selfish and stupid. However, there is enough talent and drive in the rest of the population to sort this out, given a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Clearly, the notion of exporting our way to success is little more than a pipedream. I don't think you can say that based on one month's figures. Growth by exporting is a 10-20 year game. China and Germany didn't spring up their manufacturing bases overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeFall Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Sorry pops, I don't want a big issue. Ungrateful young whipper-snapper.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I don't think you can say that based on one month's figures. Growth by exporting is a 10-20 year game. China and Germany didn't spring up their manufacturing bases overnight. True enough. But I was reminded of something Kyle Bass said when he approched the 'macro guys' at the Fed and pointed out that US sovereign debt was going to blow up unless they changed course. "We'll export our way out, like Japan." Bass expressed incredulity. Everybody in the world is in the same game, there's simply not enough demand to go round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Clearly, the notion of exporting our way to success is little more than a pipedream. We just need to devalue further.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I don't think you can say that based on one month's figures. Growth by exporting is a 10-20 year game. China and Germany didn't spring up their manufacturing bases overnight. No, but there is going in the right direction, and going in the wrong direction... Stimulating debt-consumption, which labour want to do, and now Osbourne seems to have capitulated into doing is the one way not to rectify the trade imbalance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 No, but there is going in the right direction, and going in the wrong direction... Stimulating debt-consumption, which labour want to do, and now Osbourne seems to have capitulated into doing is the one way not to rectify the trade imbalance. People have human rights you know. And debt based consumption is one of those rights Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porca misèria Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 The debt is manageable. It would be a good idea to stop borrowing more right now, but the £1 trillion we owe can be coped with - it would be like someone having a mortgage of less than one year's salary. Spain's debt was a whole lot less than that. Indeed, very comfortably manageable on the 'salary' it used to have when GDP was inflated by HPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Hence the latest round of "stealth QE" to devalue Sterling? I think so. They will keep QEing until sterling is low enough to curb imports (and perhaps even help exports a bit - though this is not strictly necessary to re-balance. Curbing imports is much easier). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tired of Waiting Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Clearly, the notion of exporting our way to success is little more than a pipedream. We have no other option but to rebalance. Nobody and no country can live beyond its means indefinitely. And we don't have to increase exports (too difficult), we can just reduce imports (much easier). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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