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THE GREAT BIG FAT GREEK THREAD


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HOLA441
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HOLA443

It cracks me up that everyone has such a distinct position: pro-austerity versus anti-austerity, blaming Greece or EU, etc. For me there is no clear position of blame, ALL parties were to blame.

The fact is both Greek and EU have always had their own selfish agendas, its just that those selfish agenda are no-longer compatible. The Greeks wanted easy money, the EU wanted more power and an artificially weakened currency.

Austerity is appropriate AT the right point of the debt curve, but austerity shouldn't be a shock to the economy (otherwise it defeats the object), it was always too late for the Greeks, the debt was unsustainable no matter what economic medicine was thrown at the issue.

In summary:

- the public have been ripped over because so called "Greek bailouts" were just private bank bailouts.

- the Greeks should never have been allowed into the Eurozone, they have a history of not paying their debts.

- the EU leaders should have accepted the inevitable several years ago and let Greece go bump.

- the Greek people faced deep austerity no matter what.

We can't keep creating fiat without destroying some of it, lets pray for a bit of debt destruction and economic cleansing.

Interesting times!

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HOLA446

Amazing. Even the interviewer is struggling to come to terms with the facts. I suppose if you are told to repeat government propaganda everyday for 5 years eventually it just becomes true in your own mind.

I would say he reflects 90% of the British public in his belief. Expect a lot of blame being thrown around by the media as they try to keep people ignorant.

Everything was going so well for this country until reality ruined everything!

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Still can't agree that Osbo is an austerian. Doubling the national debt to achieve the fastest aggregate growth of any large EU country 2010-2015 and full employment says otherwise. We've cheated our way to growth.

Double the debt, but play it down (and the MSM play it down too), say "austerity" every 8th word in your speeches, "GDP growth" every other sentence - mix for a while...let it settle, and voila....a Potemkin economy.

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It cracks me up that everyone has such a distinct position: pro-austerity versus anti-austerity, blaming Greece or EU, etc. For me there is no clear position of blame, ALL parties were to blame.

The fact is both Greek and EU have always had their own selfish agendas, its just that those selfish agenda are no-longer compatible. The Greeks wanted easy money, the EU wanted more power and an artificially weakened currency.

Austerity is appropriate AT the right point of the debt curve, but austerity shouldn't be a shock to the economy (otherwise it defeats the object), it was always too late for the Greeks, the debt was unsustainable no matter what economic medicine was thrown at the issue.

In summary:

- the public have been ripped over because so called "Greek bailouts" were just private bank bailouts.

- the Greeks should never have been allowed into the Eurozone, they have a history of not paying their debts.

- the EU leaders should have accepted the inevitable several years ago and let Greece go bump.

- the Greek people faced deep austerity no matter what.

We can't keep creating fiat without destroying some of it, lets pray for a bit of debt destruction and economic cleansing.

Interesting times!

They will certainly know the meaning of austerity if the Eurozone let them go. They are not an exporting Nation, unlike Iceland, and they have an ageing welfare dependent populace. There main export, tourism, may be compromised by anarchy, outweighing the benefit of drachma. Unpaid welfare, at present propped up by a relatively strong euro, will lead to a humanitarian disaster.

My thoughts is that it will be politically unacceptable to let them go. Greek Society implosion is a far greater risk than any financial considerations for the remaining Eurozone.

Edited by crashmonitor
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They will certainly know the meaning of austerity if the Eurozone let them go. They are not an exporting Nation, unlike Iceland, and they have an ageing welfare dependent populace. There main export, tourism, may be compromised by anarchy, outweighing the benefit of drachma. Unpaid welfare, at present propped up by a relatively strong euro, will lead to a humanitarian disaster.

My thoughts is that it will be politically unacceptable to let them go. Greek Society implosion is a far greater risk than any financial considerations for the remaining Eurozone.

+1

Exactly.... only so many dodgy package holidays one can sell, I for one won't be going on holiday to Greece again anytime soon! :)

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I don't think the UK debt is as big a problem as people on here think.

If rich savers decide to save 10 billion a month and lend it to the banks the banks can use that money to buy government bonds.

If the savers stop saving and start spending instead they will stimulate the economy the government can stop borrowing money.

if the savers stop saving and start spending their savings as well this will over simulate the economy the government can combat this buy using tax's to pay down it's debt.

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HOLA4414

Greece out of EU ???

Slovak finance minister, Peter Kazimir, who tweeted: "The nightmare of the "euro-architects" that a country could leave the club seems like a realistic scenario after Greece voted No today."

The Slovaks really want shut of the Greeks don't they, tough you joined the club show some collective responsibility. OK the Greeks personified are an obese 56 year old woman who loads up on Wonga debt to pay for her grandkids, Keegan and Tyler's, Xmas presents and spunks the rest on Foxy bingo.

Sure she will always be back for more, she is not like Iceland or Ireland, two yuppies that leveraged up on the global banking casino, but could always start again. Get your wallets out, Greece is here to stay.

Edited by crashmonitor
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Keeno: .. if they actually wrote their debts off, a complete default - which is quite feasible - that would be a tremendous strengthening of them to give them a chance to get through the downturn and then have a devalued currency which they can then devalued against the Germans, which they should have been able to do..

BBC guy: Wouldn't they then be locked out of the capital markets?

Keeno: No its actually about 3 weeks - because if you have 180% debt to GDP ratio, and then you've got zero, lenders know you've certainly got capacity to handle the debt straight away. So you don't get locked out.

How do some people get paid to function in the real world with this ?!?!?!?! Trippy economics.

And why should Greece get such hero-treatment when others carrying worse debt to GDP. Wipe away the debt owed to one group of creditors, and then same/new lenders know you can then handle fresh debt?

Also the taxes just on the poor? Not the Merc driving, 2 house, swimming pools, yachts lazing locals, oldie British (and Germans - re TMT) with their rented out holiday homes/villas.

There needs to be some restructuring, creditors eating some dirt, but with reforms.

The lesson of September 1992 is a re-affirmation of a central theme: markets are more powerful than governments. The European Exchange Rate Mechanism cracked apart because the Bank of England was no match for George Soros. Even with tens of billions of Deutsch marks to spend defending an artificially high value of the pound, the British Government was obliged by the market to beat a humiliating retreat. Given similar circumstances it would happen again.

The major economic drama will be the struggle between the market and government over the liquidation of debt. To inflate away bad debts also means inflating away good credits. Market participants will seek to preserve the value of their assets denominated in money. To the extent they succeed, they will make it harder to repay excessive debt in cheap money, and thus make the system more vulnerable to overt default and deflation. As monetary policy is loosened, in increasingly desperate efforts to reliquify the economy, the market may force a deflationary response.

Crash asset values, and make the place attractive to new investment/borrowing (same for UK) / cheap holidays / villas.

Debts are retired by paying them off, " restructuring" or default. In the first case, no value is lost; in the second, some value; in the third, all value. In desperately trying to raise cash to pay off loans, borrowers bring all kinds of assets to market, including stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate, causing their prices to plummet.

The process ends after the supply of credit falls to a level at which it is collateralised acceptably to the surviving creditors. Financial assets, and all other asset-classes of value, will be selectively repudiated by default.

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HOLA4418

I don't think the UK debt is as big a problem as people on here think.

If rich savers decide to save 10 billion a month and lend it to the banks the banks can use that money to buy government bonds.

If the savers stop saving and start spending instead they will stimulate the economy the government can stop borrowing money.

if the savers stop saving and start spending their savings as well this will over simulate the economy the government can combat this buy using tax's to pay down it's debt.

Rich savers. Got to love them eh.

The one thing I'm saving for is not any value at all (massively overvalued). Don't need Gov to keep borrowing money/spending to keep it out of reach.

I'll spend when it's lower value. Same for other opportunities in market, when lower values shake out those who've acquired big chunks via over-expansion... warehouses, shopping centres, planes, Serpico style types looking down at the paupers from decades at the top as No.1.

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+1

Exactly.... only so many dodgy package holidays one can sell, I for one won't be going on holiday to Greece again anytime soon! :)

Cutting your nose off to spite your face.... Once all this has settled down there will be some deals to be had even if they are back to the Drachma and inflation is taking hold.

Add that in with Tunisia and other sandy places with an Islamic leaning being not such a great idea these days and Greece becomes even more attractive...

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HOLA4425

Ah, right - must be part of some chemical which makes up the biggest lump of Irish exports which are chemicals.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/export-boom-likely-to-show-annual-growth-rate-of-21-to-63-2-billion-1.267877

Obviously a old story, but presumably they still export a lot of it.

Edited by StainlessSteelCat
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