It's Been A Good Month

[The Masked Tulip]

The Halifax started it all off - I doubt we will see such another massive downward swing in the coming month - but the Halifax got things going.

Declining amounts and numbers of mortgages loaned, reports that the September bounce did not happen as the EAs - ha ha - had been claiming would happen since about last June.

Land Registry down, Nationwide down, the MSM turning - especially the Daily Mail - against the madness of HPI and begining to realise that falling house prices is better for the economy, changes in housing benefit.

But perhaps most importantly, and it would not have happened without all of the above, is the change in sentiment I am now hearing by Joe Public - only an idiot would buy a house now. Speaking of which, I heard yesterday of a numpty who has offered 279K full asking price on a house which sold for 220K in 2007 - such people continue the delusion for some EAs.

I almost do not want October to end. Let's hope that November is not an anti-climax.

[southeast]

In theory it certainly has and lets hope that it continues, but also that some property that I actually want to buy comes on the market at the same time.....at the bottom of course lol.............so not just yet..

I am not sure as joe public are quite 'up to speed' yet, and coversations about house prices don't seem to go down well, with the usual comments about high prices being good....well I sure know i'd preffer a smaller gap between upsizing, better for me in the long run!

The one thing that makes me aprehensive though is the external influences, such as low rates, less forced repos,government hand outs etc.....which make it hard to decide for certain if it will crash or just tail off a bit. Like most people I want a house to LIVE in so won't wait forever, maybe another year or so max....

Looking forward to Halifax and the next RICS report though!

[silver surfer]

But perhaps most importantly, and it would not have happened without all of the above, is the change in sentiment I am now hearing by Joe Public - only an idiot would buy a house now.

The problem is that Joe Public is also saying "only an idiot would sell a house now". A fully fledged HPC needs forced sales. Will 600,000 axed civil servants do the trick? Maybe, maybe not.

[athom]

But perhaps most importantly, and it would not have happened without all of the above, is the change in sentiment I am now hearing by Joe Public - only an idiot would buy a house now.

a friend who seemed to have a blind obsession with buying has now changed his mind, there does seem to be a critical mass of bear food in the MSM these days. Happy days

[Pent Up]

We need a 1.7% fall to put Halifax quarterly annual YoY negative next week. Looks doubtful but any fall from Halifax would start us off well.

Spoke to someone yesterday who mention about how hard it is for her 23 year old son to buy. He's saving for a deposit and will be "for years at this rate" she said. "they need to do something to help first time buyers, they need to bring back 100% mortgages they have their whole lives to pay it off"

I resisted the urge to punch her face in and just said that 100% mortgage just mean sky high unaffordable repayments!

Luckily the conversation quickly moved on before it became heated.

Joe public are thick and always will be..

Edited October 31, 2010 by Pent Up

[Tyler]

The problem is that Joe Public is also saying "only an idiot would sell a house now". A fully fledged HPC needs forced sales. Will 600,000 axed civil servants do the trick? Maybe, maybe not.

If by forced sales you mean ''snatch backs', let's hope there aren't many of these as to lose your home as well as your job is not something any right minded person would wish on anyone.

[Guest_James Toney_*]

it has been a great month, i think halifax will show more good falls again, i am going for 2% fall

[Pick It Down]

We could have the perfect scenario of healthy economy and falling house prices at this rate..

[headrow]

she said. "they need to do something to help first time buyers, they need to bring back 100% mortgages they have their whole lives to pay it off"

That is what will happen.

I can see a 40 year fix at 2.5% for a FTB at 100% LTV. The bank wins as it gets the FTB back in the market and at the same time puts a floor at a decent level (to them) under the market.

[rantnrave]

The Halifax figures are indeed keenly awaited... While the last figure was a whopper, those preceding it had been pretty bullish. If this month's news is a positive figure, or less than 0.5% down then I think we are going to have a gradual correction. More than 0.5% and I think the crash is on!

[The Masked Tulip]

The problem with the Halifax 3.6% fall is that it only now needs a handful of houses to go for asking price or thereabouts to actually push up the Halifax figures.

[silver surfer]

If by forced sales you mean ''snatch backs', let's hope there aren't many of these as to lose your home as well as your job is not something any right minded person would wish on anyone.

It's a ghastly prospect. But there's no evading the fact that to see big falls in nominal house prices over the next few years will require tens of thousands of forced sales. There just isn't any comfortable alternative.

[goldbug9999]

If by forced sales you mean ''snatch backs', let's hope there aren't many of these as to lose your home as well as your job is not something any right minded person would wish on anyone.

Houses dont sit empty just because people have to sell or get respossed - they just change hands between people who cant afford them and people who can. I dont have even a glimmer of moral reservation about that. People shouldn't buy houses they cant afford, and by "afford" I mean where a mortgage is a maximum of 1/3rd your net income calculated at a rate of 5%.

[goldbug9999]

It's a ghastly prospect.

Yes I agree is positively "ghastly" that wreckless greedy ignorant people should be forced to move out of houses they cant afford in order to provide a badly needed reasonable priced home for someone who has taken responsibility for their own life and well being.

[Liquid Goldfish]

The Housng Benefit rumpus also seems to be feeding the debate on affordabiltiy of housing. So many people are talking about it on TV.

[The Masked Tulip]

The Housng Benefit rumpus also seems to be feeding the debate on affordabiltiy of housing. So many people are talking about it on TV.

It has been an eye-opener for millions I suspect - myself included. We see the occasional story of people, on housing benefits, living in houses worth a million or immigrants getting a house, rent paid, in some posh part of our cities and think - well I did - that it was the exception and not the rule.

Landlords have been making their fortunes off the back off the working tax-payers. When I think of all those people commuting long distances into London, and paying a hefty cost to do so, because they can't afford to live closer to their jobs... and now finding out that there are tens of thousands of people on benefits who are effectively pricing them out of those houses... there must be a lot of anger amongst thousands of those commuters this week.

Housing benefits of 20, 30 and even 40 thousand a year is truly staggering. It is almost impossible to believe.

[Timm]

And there are the Tories, trying to reduce the burden of rent, and there is Labour, screaming blue murder at them to stop.

Very strange.

[newbonic]

...... there must be a lot of anger amongst thousands of those commuters this week.

Housing benefits of 20, 30 and even 40 thousand a year is truly staggering. It is almost impossible to believe.

If you're stuck on a packed train in cricklewood because of points failure or some such, having already been up 2 hours, then the idea of a family on benefits living a 20 minute walk from work must indeed be galling.

Before the insanity of the Brown years, I'd have been spluttering into my cornflakes at hearing of someone getting £5k a year in taxpayers money for rent, never mind £20k+.

[silver surfer]

It has been an eye-opener for millions I suspect - myself included. We see the occasional story of people, on housing benefits, living in houses worth a million or immigrants getting a house, rent paid, in some posh part of our cities and think - well I did - that it was the exception and not the rule.

Landlords have been making their fortunes off the back off the working tax-payers. When I think of all those people commuting long distances into London, and paying a hefty cost to do so, because they can't afford to live closer to their jobs... and now finding out that there are tens of thousands of people on benefits who are effectively pricing them out of those houses... there must be a lot of anger amongst thousands of those commuters this week.

Housing benefits of 20, 30 and even 40 thousand a year is truly staggering. It is almost impossible to believe.

Well put.

[The Masked Tulip]

If you're stuck on a packed train in cricklewood because of points failure or some such, having already been up 2 hours, then the idea of a family on benefits living a 20 minute walk from work must indeed be galling.

Before the insanity of the Brown years, I'd have been spluttering into my cornflakes at hearing of someone getting £5k a year in taxpayers money for rent, never mind £20k+.

Yep.

Btw, Brown is going to make a speech in Parliament this week arguing that the new aircraft carriers need to be serviced in his constituency.

[mattyfc]

the MSM turning - especially the Daily Mail - against the madness of HPI and begining to realise that falling house prices is better for the economy, changes in housing benefit.

Key point here. The government housing minister coming out against HPI was good as well (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1319943/Homes-pensions-Tory-mnister-Grant-Shapps-vows-end-house-price-booms.html)

[newbonic]

Yep.

Btw, Brown is going to make a speech in Parliament this week arguing that the new aircraft carriers need to be serviced in his constituency.

Maybe it'll be putting fake skid marks on the flight deck so that the Ruskies think we can afford planes to land on them (after Brown's scorched earth retreat from the no 10 bunker).

[Si1]

Maybe it'll be putting fake skid marks on the flight deck so that the Ruskies think we can afford planes to land on them (after Brown's scorched earth retreat from the no 10 bunker).

maybe if they deliberatly break it it will be good for the economy because of all the jobhs it creates in repairing it

[1888]

I think the Tories know they have to collapse the market

1st to prove how outta control its got under Labor

and 2nd to get a recovery underway before the next election

It seems like higher rates will achieve this altho it will also

put big strains on the economy

A £200k loan at 4% over 25 yrs is - £1055

A £150k loan at 6% - £966

we may have to borrow less capital but we will end up

paying the banks roughly the same in repayments

only the cash rich will benefit from snapping up cheaper homes

which is the 3rd reason the Tories will go for it

[erranta]

a friend who seemed to have a blind obsession with buying has now changed his mind, there does seem to be a critical mass of bear food in the MSM these days. Happy days

When they see far more than £12,000 of imaginary wealth disappear in one quarter putting them nearer over mewed negative equity - they sit transfixed like a wabbit in the headlights!