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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by athom

  1. still 5 on the most read, of course it'll help if you don't read the other stories while you're there but frankly it's out of our hands also on the front page in another place so can't complain Most Popular Shared 1: Explosion at French nuclear site 2: Glowing cats shed light on Aids 3: Why is Christianity booming in China? 4: Spartacus TV actor Whitfield dies 5: Drunk Swedish elk found in tree Read 1: 'Wi-fi refugees' shelter in West Virginia mountains 2: Benefit cheat glamour model fined 3: Top MPs at risk in Commons cull 4: Should Hitler's Wall be preserved? 5: Sellers' housing market 'gloom' 6: Body named as missing boyfriend
  2. Economic fears hit house market I love this second sentence. Just goes to show that people won't normally try to jump back on when prices have tumbled, the market won't look good while it's falling. Once it really starts it'll keep on going all the way to the trend under-shoot baby bring it on
  3. today it seems pretty implausible but if you imagine a time when the fiat currencies have become irrelevant and the global economy has collapsed wouldn't it be the sort of time for national emergency measures that seem unthinkable in normal times? Ironically enough of course it is exactly this sort of extreme time the gold bug expects gold to be their greatest protection Or does it seem implausible because you expect the voting majority (who won't have gotten on the gold wagon) to rise up to protect the gold bugs stashes? I expect they'll be very enthusiastic for the "rich" gold hoarders to shoulder their burden etc. Of course it will be in the form of a like, "loan" to the nation, just until we get ourselves back on our feet. Didn't they cancel a particular high denomination note in Russia which most people used to save under the mattress? That would have seemed pretty unthinkable about 1 second before they announced it. Best to diversify really IMO.
  4. The attitude of EAs on that site and one's i've met remind me of gold bugs in their eye curtained wonderlust for ever higher prices. Gold bugs i understand but for the life of me i can't understand why any EA would get more delight from crowing about one massively over sold house they got through rather than having a nice fat book of houses priced at levels people are willing and able to pay bringing a steady turn over of work and income. What is this psychology that leads them to shoot themselves in the foot? Really bizarre.
  5. Thanks for posting TMT, this is brilliant. that is a classic. "We're at the point of achieving the actual market value for our 3 bed house which is what people are asking for 2 bed flats" phew it's a world gone mad. Is the denial stage supposed to go on this long?
  6. funny you should say that, the house i'm moving out of was also bought in 2007 for £230k and the landlady is putting it on the market for 275k. She has done very little to it, and it is weathering time poorly, so that 20% increase over 4 years she puts down to pure house price inflation. I queried the realism of this and as i've seen before the EA uses one bonkers valued recent house sale to tar the whole market situation. Some how the EAs here are living of one mad sale a month and still ramping the market ever higher. Looking at what else is available here (Bath) she might well get the 275 if the right delusional nutter comes along.
  7. Just about to move to my new rental, house was last sold (to a large long established charity, long irrelevant story) in 2007 for £365,000 and i'll be paying £1,200 a month. So i divided 365k by 25 years by 12 months = £1,216. Interesting i thought. According to the BBC basic mortgage calculator if i took a 365k mortgage with a 5% interest rate i would have to repay £2158 a month or £958 more than the rent. Add the taxes, fees and upkeep to that. So what i want to know is am i missing the boat by not getting on the ladder? At least should i BTL? This situation can't last and i don't think rents can go up much more.
  8. sums up most of this thread. Its a gold ramping thread and anyone a little conservative on gold isn't doing their bit to support the pyramid scheme and gets flamed.
  9. hmm. Yes BUT if you buy it at $2000 and the price suddenly drops to $1000 or $200 because of some fiddling that makes the markets believe stability has resumed you are still just as burned whether someone called it a bubble or not. It was insurance when it was $200 an ounce, at $2000 it's a gamble.
  10. my feelings exactly, as you call it funny GDP (borrow and spend) is the best we're managed to come up with over the last decade or 2 now any slight gains from real growth will go to pay debt interest. We're going down for a long time. I can't imagine where the up will come from if it even does in my lifetime.
  11. i know someone who bartered for some horse manure, would like to see the look on the tax mans face when he sent them their share. But i think you're right, it will be taxable, no way will there be such an obvious loop hole left unclosed.
  12. it's not better than any other form of gambling. People talk about preserving wealth and then once they're into gold it all turns casino with another leg down tomorrow we could approach $1600 in 24 hours, are you really going to buy in then? And nor would many others if it does, what level would look a certain one way bet?
  13. Not sure i can from that, i would need to know how many cows an average man could earn in a year and i don't expect slave labour to be anything near an average mans at those pre-minimum wage times. Interestingly though 1 ounce = 437.5 grains so one cow at 130 grains with gold at say £1100 = £327..... which from what i can google up is a reasonable ball park figure for a reasonable milk cow, perhaps on the cheap side
  14. average annual salary in the UK now, lets be generous and say 30k for a 40 hour week - 14 pounds/hour = 140 per ounce? I was thinking further back in history though, when it was the most common currency.
  15. for one ounce? So say 300 pounds roughly. What does that mean when gold is selling for 3 or 4 times that? Ok so the money it's being bought with is fake money either paper or digital but still to earn this fake money is just as hard and is also linked to the price of bread..... does the fact that bread is not increasing at the same rate as gold prove that gold is very over priced rather than the fake money becoming less valuable? and the big investors could shift over to create a bull market in flour any time they fancy and gold falls back to 300?
  16. you're probably right, the higher it goes the more irrational they will become. What a thing to behold
  17. I'd love to know what the price of gold was at times past in terms of man hours of labour. I'm struggling to get a real terms perspective on it.
  18. not sure myself but i bet the bigger the bug the more likely they'll hold on in disbelief until practically back at what they bought in for. Reading the comments on gold related blogs there is some real mania out there. Unless it reaches 20k and then maybe they'll think it's peaked.
  19. makes sense, traders sell off in the morning and buy back at $100 to $120 less at the end of the day. And the next day either do the same or bet it will rise $100 so buy from the people who get it wrong and sell that day. This ability by others to influence the price by so much in 1 day tells me there are very large trades going on. It tells me if the mood took hold the traders could carry on downward for multiple days despite no other change influencing it in the economy, it tells me that for the big boys it's just a game and if they abandon gold the price will go back to $200 or something, small time survivalist buyers won't sustain these prices. My conclusion is don't go 100% gold despite expecting it will keep averaging up to multiples of now as fiat collapses over the next few years. IMO.
  20. If my father in law went to the shop and said how much will you give me for this and the guy said i'll offer you 85 pounds, i'd say that was fair enough, he can offer what he likes as i might at a car boot offer 5 quid for something i expect to go later that day for 100 on ebay. The crucial difference here is the business is offering valuations and he went there to ask for a professional valuation, he was told "your gold is worth 85 pounds" and was provided reasons why it was. IMO a completely different situation and i would say there was a reason to think that was fraud.
  21. now did you catch the bit where he said 10% bet you're all deaf to that this is why it'll be the little guys that get burnt. At the end of the day it's not sensible to be selling everything to buy more gold. I can imagine you bugs in bare rooms with a single energy saving light bulb throwing light on your tiny piles of incredibly expensive yellow metal, every new penny going to add a wee bit more. I hope you all get it right i really do but i can't help being more cautious myself. Saying that i'll be increasing my own once we seem to be on the way up again, just not to 100%
  22. no they are lying thieving scum, surely it's fraudulent to tell someone that their 3 grands worth of gold is worth 85 quid? Whether there's a law against it or not there is no doubt in my mind that in reality they are lying thieving scum.
  23. problem solved i've offered to buy it myself, cut out the middle man.
  24. http://www.scrapgolduk.co.uk/ offering £2928, significantly better than £85 :angry: what a twit though if he'd offered say £2200 in-law would have been well chuffed and rip off man would have still stiffed him for £800. In-law often clueless unfortunately. I don't think he'll be going to any auction and i'm not local to him but if you know a better easy place to sell it please let me know.
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