What A Terrible News Day.......

[Bullish Bear]

I have never ever known anything like it. I spend 1 - 2 hours per day looking at property related news and I have been doing this for the past 18 months. Today is the day when the media have thrown in the towel - the boom is over, the bust is here.

So will the bears, the STRs and the FTBs please raise your glasses and say "I told you so!!!"

Summary of news stories from the blog:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...1692904,00.html

http://www.sundayherald.com/50811

http://timworstall.typepad.com/timworstall...use_prices.html

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/st...1530095,00.html

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j.../17/ixcity.html

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/com...ticle299574.ece

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/st...1530061,00.html

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/st...1530059,00.html

[Badlad1967]

Ooooh don't tell Perplexed... she'll get her knickers in a twist

Seeing the blog today I think I'm going to open that bottle of Bolli I got for my birthday! Anyone like to join me???

[mbga9pgf]

Get the news over to singing pig!!!

I got banned over there a while ago; sure Property Guru could come out with some absolute classics as to what is actually happening!

[Waiting Patiently]

Get the news over to singing pig!!!........

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes its a great news day for the bears and some of it is being discussed on the pig too ..................

singing pig discussion forum

[deano]

The medias pushed the panic button. I was expecting this along with a backlash, some media outlets will be pulling older articles saying we told you so, blah, blah.

The uninformed public are going to get really confused, there faith in the Halifax, Nationwide etc will be shattered.

See you next week in the aftermath.

deano

[MarkG]

Maybe this is Brown's plan to try to force the BoE to cut rates?

[Jason]

I agree, the number of articles today is surprising!

Do you think there's any significance that they are al released on a Sunday? I doubt the masses would read a sunday paper!

[mbga9pgf]

The medias pushed the panic button.  I was expecting this along with a backlash, some media outlets will be pulling older articles saying we told you so, blah, blah.

The uninformed public are going to get really confused, there faith in the Halifax, Nationwide etc will be shattered.

See you next week in the aftermath.

deano

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dean, good to see you around. Given up on the BBC forum recently? Think most of the sellers have!

[laurejon]

Yep it sure is looking very bad.

And why would they want that.

Oh Yes they want a reduction in interest rates.

You people should really think alot harder before you jump for joy.

The message in todays rags is.

If you dont drop rates like we asked you to, property will crash and so will the economy.

[deano]

I agree, the number of articles today is surprising!

Do you think there's any significance that they are al released on a Sunday? I doubt the masses would read a sunday paper!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Um yeah, thats a bit odd isn't it they've all moved on the same day together, it's like they all had a meeting and said lets go.

[Red Baron]

I spend 1 - 2 hours per day looking at property related news and I have been doing this for the past 18 months.

I think we all owe you a big 'thankyou' for the solid work you have quietly been doing over this time. HPC, via the Blog, has become a truly valuable resource for anyone researching the market.

[mbga9pgf]

Merv and the rest of the MPC arent that dumb. The media can winge all it wants, together with all the goon VIs pulling the strings in the background; it wont make the slightest difference. The MPC is there for one purpose alone; control inflation. Not look after individual sectors of the UK economy.

All this is going to do is put the fear of god in the last remaining Bulls... and require a change of underwear. Check this out from the pig; if this isnt a bull smacking of desperation, fear and anger rolled into one than I dont know what is:

I still dont see a crash coming, and im not terribly bothered if it does. Ive got about 25% equity over 4 houses, and maybe the same in the bank, with healthy cashflow and tenants that are very unlikely to move out. And an enjoyable fairly well paid day job, so i have no big fears for my own future. Hopefully other investors will be as well protected from a crash as i feel.

What happens if his tennants are made unemployed?

What happens if prices drop over 25% (looking more and more likely)

Thing is, someone pointed out we dont want anyone to get stung, thats not what we are wishing for, it seems as if some of the Bulls are convinced our rantings and wishes are purely meant for their harm... Which it certainly is not.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Gudz]

The message in todays rags is.

If you dont drop rates like we asked you to, property will crash and so will the economy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If they do drop rates - it still won't change matters.

Other than they'll devalue the pound further.

A good news day today, I'm cracking open a beer!

[libitina]

Dropping the interest rates won't mean I can magically afford to buy a house.

The prices need to be drastically reduced first, then I can worry about the interest rates.

[MarkG]

If they do drop rates - it still won't change matters.

Indeed, that's what the bulls seem to ignore. To make a difference we'd need rates to drop at least as low as laurejon's 3% rate or Perplexed's 2% rate... a 0.25% cut would do bugger all.

So unless you think the BoE will cut rates at least 1.5% in the next few months, the house market is screwed. And I'm sure the BoE themselves are well aware that a 0.25% cut would be pissing in the wind.

[cgnao]

Got gold?

[justanewbie]

Interesting that they bring out all the bad news on a Sunday

and on the very day that the media publishes the first dramatic

picture of the four bombers together.

If I were a complete cynic, I would think they were trying to

hide the news.

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

Get the news over to singing pig!!!

I got banned over there a while ago; sure Property Guru could come out with some absolute classics as to what is actually happening!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have posted the articles on Singing Pig. Lets see how Property Guru rips them apart tomorrow when he returns to his Luton EA office.

[TWT]

Indeed, that's what the bulls seem to ignore. To make a difference we'd need rates to drop at least as low as laurejon's 3% rate or Perplexed's 2% rate... a 0.25% cut would do bugger all.

So unless you think the BoE will cut rates at least 1.5% in the next few months, the house market is screwed. And I'm sure the BoE themselves are well aware that a 0.25% cut would be pissing in the wind.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In France they say pissing in a violon, it does matter, same effect!

Start to smell the crash in France as well.

[Tim M]

Actually, the number of people claouring for a rate cut is proof that the crash is starting to bite.

What they don't realise is that the BoE is now between a rock and a hard place. Cut interest rates and the pound sinks into the toilet, raising the cost of imports and setting of a nasty bout of imported inflation. Interest rates would have to go back up eventually, but the eventual recession would be worse than if the BoE just bit the bullet and did things properly now.

There is no way out of this now, there is a recession and property crash coming, and nothing the BoE can do is going to stop it.

[mclihah2]

Actually, the number of people claouring for a rate cut is proof that the crash is starting to bite.

What they don't realise is that the BoE is now between a rock and a hard place. Cut interest rates and the pound sinks into the toilet, raising the cost of imports and setting of a nasty bout of imported inflation. Interest rates would have to go back up eventually, but the eventual recession would be worse than if the BoE just bit the bullet and did things properly now.

There is no way out of this now, there is a recession and property crash coming, and nothing the BoE can do is going to stop it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well this is a funny little predicament isn't it? I don't think a year ago that people on this site were looking at a possible recession. It was all about house prices... It seems that that game has turned bigger than house prices, and that the whole economy is in danger.

For my part, I knew something was up when I saw the article about B&Q having trouble. The thing about B&Q is that everybody uses it.. The rich, and the not-so rich. It's a big business, and very much tied into the housing market - feelgood factor.

Interesting times ahead...I hope I don't get bitten by the (possible) slump.

[RichM]

Well this is a funny little predicament isn't it? I don't think a year ago that people on this site were looking at a possible recession. It was all about house prices... It seems that that game has turned bigger than house prices, and that the whole economy is in danger.

For my part, I knew something was up when I saw the article about B&Q having trouble. The thing about B&Q is that everybody uses it.. The rich, and the not-so rich. It's a big business, and very much tied into the housing market - feelgood factor.

Interesting times ahead...I hope I don't get bitten by the (possible) slump.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you'd be surprised. There were gold pundits on here a year ago; as personal debt passed a trillion pounds it was clear the debt binge couldn't o on forever.

Bullish bear - as the poster above said, thanks! You've really made the site "gert lush" as they say back in the west country. While people elsehwere think many of the posters on here are nutters (and I suppose in our own, gentle way, we are) but that as a resource the blog is dead helpful, hence the Economist plug.

All that bearish news - perfect first wedding anniversary for me and the Mrs! Cheers, broadsheet newspapers!

[FTB]

Yep it sure is looking very bad.

And why would they want that.

Oh Yes they want a reduction in interest rates.

You people should really think alot harder before you jump for joy.

The message in todays rags is.

If you dont drop rates like we asked you to, property will crash and so will the economy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You really think that they'd choose that method of doing so? Even if this was some secret message to the BoE then any "good" that'd do the property market [for the bulls] would be more than compensated by changing everyones' sentiment about which way the market is heading! Even with a .5% cut the damage to sentiment will have been made.

[Dames]

The Rics guy said

'A lot of people expected some sort of pick-up after the election, but I never really bought that argument.'

Ahhh , isnt hindsight a wonderful thing.

D

[AnotherSTR]

For my part, I knew something was up when I saw the article about B&Q having trouble. The thing about B&Q is that everybody uses it.. The rich, and the not-so rich. It's a big business, and very much tied into the housing market - feelgood factor.

Interesting times ahead...I hope I don't get bitten by the (possible) slump.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This were exactly my thoughts today on reading "Scores of jobs to go at troubled B&Q". Go back to this time last year and B&Q was riding on the crest of the house bubble wave and could do no wrong. Who'd have thought they could be 'troubled'? It's a fantastic indicator of where things are going!