Tim M

We sponsor a child in Zambia through Worldvision. The key point to remember is that your money contribute to the wellbeing of the entire village as well as to the individual child by helping to provide clean water, school facilities. Contrary to what Dog says, I don't believe it is the sort of charity that promotes dependency, rather it is a small amount of money that can have a major impact on the quality of life and future for a large number of children.

Definitely keep it. It's the first thing I look at when I come to the site and find it incredibly valuable.

Just a minute, get your facts straight. Depleted uranium projectiles are not dirty bombs, they are just projectiles made of something denser than lead so that they go further and penetrate armour better. The levels of radiation generated by them are quite low so the biggest danger from them is if you happen to have one aimed at you. I do not agree with their use despite the claims the U.S. make for their saftey, but please don't make hysterical claims that are not justified.

BHP Billiton, but you are a bit late, they have almost doubled in price in the past 12 months

To be fair, the first article you quoted was from September 2003. The second article was from 3 weeks ago, and the correction "Brian" was predicting for the "next few weeks" hasn't happened yet. Brian sounds like a bullsh1tter to me!

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/hou...1701507041.html HOUSE prices will remain flat in Melbourne over the next few years as the lack of affordability continues to hurt the property market, according to forecasts by BIS Shrapnel. It tips Melbourne house prices will rise by just 1 per cent until June 2008. That compares with a 43.6 per cent rise in median prices to $359,800 between 2000 and last year. "Affordability in Melbourne is not that different to what it was a couple of years ago," BIS Shrapnel senior project manager Jason Anderson told the Building Industry Prospects conference in Melbourne yesterday. "We are looking at a modest 2 per cent gain over the year to June 2006, a flat outcome in 2007 and a further 1 per cent decline in 2008. And that's predicated on some interest rate rises coming through in 2006-07." According to BIS Shrapnel, Melbourne has the second most-expensive housing market in Australia, after Sydney. A separate survey released yesterday by the Real Estate Institute of Australia ranks Victoria third, behind NSW and Queensland. The REIA called for Government action across Australia to make housing more affordable. BIS Shrapnel director Robert Mellor said affordability, not the threat of higher interest rates, was the No.1 issue facing the industry. He said the quickest way to improve affordability would be a 15 per cent drop in prices but this was unlikely due to the strong economy. "The only way we see an improvement in affordability is waiting and waiting and waiting," he said. That would require wages to continue to grow and house prices to remain stable. Mr Mellor said the situation was especially dire in NSW and was affecting the building industry. The level of new home starts is 10 per cent lower than during the 1990-91 recession in that state. "That's the magnitude of it. In NSW we are talking about recessionary-type conditions." In Victoria, the BIS Shrapnel report forecast a 10 per cent fall in new home starts in 2005-06 and a 6 per cent fall the following year. It said the outlook had been complicated by the introduction of new environmental standards last year and the reduction of a State Government grant at the end of the year that caused "a pull forward" in activity. Meanwhile, the REIA Home Loan Affordability Report found a slight improvement in Victoria in the last quarter of last year, although it still would require 30.6 per cent of family income to meet the average loan repayment. In the March quarter of 1998, that figure was 20.1 per cent in Victoria. Across Australia, affordability worsened in most states. In NSW, 36.5 per cent of family income is needed to meet average loan repayments. REIA president Tony Brasier said the situation was critical. He called for the abolition of "ineffective and inequitable state property taxes" and further exemptions for first home buyers. He also said governments should consider allowing access to superannuation funds for home ownership while the first home owners grant should be indexed. "Effective, affordable land development policies, including supporting infrastructure development, are required to ensure adequate supplies of land for housing so land costs do not become an inhibiting factor for home ownership," he said.

Australian property 'over-valued' From: AAP By Shane Wright November 29, 2005 AUSTRALIA has beaten the world in over-valuing its homes – and property owners should prepare for price falls until late next year. A special Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report into housing markets in the world's richest nations has found Australia is the most over-valued property market. The report was prompted by sharp spikes in property prices in developed nations in recent years. The OECD found the estimated over-valuation of Australian homes in 2004 was 51.8 per cent. The next highest over-valuation was in Britain at 32.8 per cent. That over-valuation was coupled with the second highest mortgage rates in the developed world, at an average of 7.1 per cent – only eclipsed by New Zealand where they were eight per cent. There have been plenty of signs of the slowing property and housing market since prices peaked early last year. But the OECD believes prices are likely to fall for some time. Since 1970, Australia has had six upturns in the property market – the highest number of the developed world. Those upturns have averaged 14.3 quarters, or about 43 months. During those upturns, average prices have increased 31.6 per cent. But between the first quarter of 1996 and the first quarter of 2004 Australian real house prices climbed 84.7 per cent. Downturns in the Australian house market have averaged around 10 quarters, or 30 months, with an average price fall of 10.1 per cent. The current downturn started in Sydney and Melbourne early last year, which means on the OECD's figures, prices are likely to fall – or not rise – until the fourth quarter of 2006. The OECD said the strong growth in house prices in developed nations was unprecedented, partly because of how it has not mirrored the global economy. "The current house price boom is strikingly out of step with the business cycle," it found. The OECD pins down several factors for the way people had bid up the price of houses across the developed world. It suggests a lack of housing stock, higher migration levels, low interest rates and more competition from lenders have all contributed to the strong rises in prices. "A combination of generalised low interest rates across OECD economies, coupled with the development of new and innovative financial products, have no doubt played an important role," it said. "In Australia, increased competition among credit providers has contributed to the doubling of the number of products provided by lenders." Another factor with special importance to Australia is the growth in people investing in property specifically to rent. Buy-to-let mortgages, as they are called internationally, have grown in most nations. Around seven per cent of loans in Britain are for investment, while in the US 15 per cent of home sales last year were for investment. But in Australia, around 30 per cent of mortgages (by late 2003) were for investment. In NSW the rate was 42 per cent of all mortgages, and in Victoria it was 35 per cent. The OECD said even a small rise in interest rates could prove problematic for the housing sector. "If house prices were to adjust downward, possibly in response to an increase in interest rates or for other reasons, the historical record suggests that the drops might be large and the process could be protracted," it found.

I don't know, would you believe me if I said the same?

If you really want to find out how smart you are, do the Hoeflin Power Test. No time limit, although the author says that about 1 day per question (36 questions) is reasonable. Someone with an IQ of 120 or less should get no questions right. If you get 36 right you will have an IQ of 197+

All this talk that oil and oil stocks will fall significantly because of fears of demand destruction is complete tosh. Demand is going to have to drop off a lot just to keep up with the supply destruction that the U.S. has seen over the past two months. see - 108 rigs destroyed in gulf of Mexico Just because the yanks can get oil out of the Strategic Reserve or import refined petroleum from Europe doesn't solve the problem. It doesn't increase global production one drop. This winter people in the U.S. still have to heat their homes and drive their cars, and that side of demand is not particularly flexible. Personally, I am with Matthew Simmons on his outlook for the oil price over the next few years - very pessimistic, see- Are we now in an energy hole? I totally agree with Dr. Bubb that world stock markets may drop substantially over the next few weeks/months, however I'll be holding on to my oil stocks as tightly as my gold stocks.

What I can't believe is that analysts such as this get paid big money and they come out with such obvious b*llsh!t

On this point I am in complete agreement with you

Katrina knocked out the refining capacity, and Rita knocked out a bit more. What is not widely appreciated is that Rita had a far bigger effect on the oil production rigs in the gulf. It may have been downgraded to a cat 3 hurricane by the time it reached shore, but it was a real cat 4 when it was out over the water. From a current Bloomberg story - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=ema...id=aYEzYnzPC1pw

Ahh! So peak oil is a big-oil conspiracy to drive the price up. Funny, in the last couple of days, several key players in the oil industry have come out denying peak oil. The boss of Exxon says there is plenty of oil. The Saudi Oil Minister says there is plenty of oil. Vladimir Putin says there is plenty of oil. On the other hand the peak oil lobby tends to be a bunch of academics and ex-oil industry people with no apparent profit motive. I know who I would prefer to trust.

I disagree, the bull market in gold is just getting started. The fact that this is a 17 year high in gold is simply a testament to the extent that gold has beaten back by central bank selling evry time it has rallied. Eventually the central banks are going to realise that selling all their gold is not a good idea. Maybe that time is now.

Following article is from http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=24992 It contains details of actual rig losses and damage. Note that Chevron, the largest Gulf of Mexico operator had not reported at that point. Special Report: Hurricane Katrina Damage Assessment Rigzone Friday, September 02, 2005 Offshore Damage Overview and Perspective Thus far, the effects of Hurricane Katrina on the upstream industry in the Gulf of Mexico have seemed light compared with the problems inflicted on onshore refining and transport facilities. But when put in perspective with the problems caused by last year's Hurricane Ivan, Katrina proves to have packed quite a punch. According to the MMS, Ivan destroyed 7 offshore platforms and did damage to 100 underwater pipelines. Ivan also damaged a total of 7 offshore rigs (4 semisubs, 2 platform rigs, 1 jackup) and completely destroyed 2 rigs (1 jackup, 1 platform rig). Katrina damaged a total of 12 rigs, including at least 5 that are likely to be scrapped. Discounting the 3 semisubs that only suffered loss of ballast and listing, Katrina still damaged 9 offshore rigs. Additionally, damage to at least 30 offshore platforms has been confirmed, with 18 platforms a total loss. And that number may increase, as a recent MMS report indicated a total of 58 damaged platforms and rigs in the Gulf. The only major area of uncertainty is how badly the underwater pipelines connecting the offshore platforms to shore have been damaged. It will be at least several more days before those damages can be fully assessed. Download the overview of rig and platform damage (PDF) Offshore Rig Damage Assessment Hurricane Damage Map When Hurricane Katrina blew through the Gulf, 62 rigs stood in its direct path, while another 55 rigs were within the reach of its tropical storm force winds. No damage has been reported on any of the rigs outside of its direct path, but many of the rigs in its path were damaged. According to rig manager reports as of Friday, Sept 2nd, a total of 12 rigs had endured notable damage; nearly 20% of the rigs in the path of the storm. The most severe damage was dealt to the Rowan New Orleans (250' IS jackup), which appears to have been sunk, and Diamond's Ocean Warwick (300' IC jackup), which was carried 66 miles by the storm and washed up on Dauphin Island. In addition to these jackup losses, 4 platform rigs suffered serious damages, so much so that all 4 may be scrapped. The most valuable rig damaged by Katrina was Transocean's $330 million semisub, the Deepwater Nautilus, which was moved 80 miles off of its pre-storm position and experienced significant damage to its risers and subsea systems. Download the full report on rigs affected by Katrina (PDF) Offshore Platform Damage Assessment Based on information provided by operators owning platforms and leases in the Gulf of Mexico, there are at least 30 offshore platforms that have been damaged to varying degrees by Hurricane Katrina. Of those 30 platforms, reports show that 18 platforms appear to have been completely lost, while another 12 platforms have been damaged. The majority of damage has occurred on shallow water platforms, but there are a few notable exceptions. Shell's $550 million Mars tension leg platform (TLP) was handling 147,000 barrels of oil and 157mmcfe per day from its location on Mississippi Canyon 807 before Katrina hit on Sunday. Now the platform is entirely shut-in and has experienced major damages due to the destruction of the H&P 201 platform rig that was located on its top sides. The extent of the damages to the Mars platform has yet to be ascertained, but the H&P 201 is almost certainly a total loss. Download the full report on operator platforms damaged by Katrina (PDF)

Here's two that aren't missing - edited: plus one more that isn't lost, although the bridge it hit is a bit the worse for wear.

Sold January 2004. House was 1/3 equity, 2/3 mortgage. Main reason for selling was unsuitability of house for our family circumstances (i.e. we decided to sell when my wife got pregnant with our second child), but felt that although it was an excellent time to sell our place, it was a terrible time to buy back in. So far, positives are - + Not paying an oppresive mortgage + Getting good return on the portion of the equity we released and put into fixed interest at 5.7% + Getting excellent return on the remainder of our equity we placed in mining, oil and gold stocks. + Renting a house that is literally twice the size (and value) of the one we owned. This includes double garage and large separate workshop for my DIY kit. + Rent is a bit less than our old mortgage. + The peace of mind that comes from knowing you have a chunk of money in the bank, your rent paid in advance for the year and absolutely zero debt. I do not wish to go back to the days when I lost sleep at nights thinking about how we were going to service a horrendous mortgage when interest rates went up. + Lack of financial stress means that my wife is not pressured to go back to work and instead she can stay home and take care of our 2 young children. + Not having to do the garden or mow the lawns (it's included in the rent) Negatives are - Local property market has stayed stronger than expected, although most other parts of the country (Australia) are in decline. - We have moved twice in less than two years and it is a pain. If you STR make sure you find a good place to rent and lock in an option to rent for more than 1 year. - Having to have rental inspections every few months - not being able to have a dog

Very funny article. Unfortunately it bears a horrible similarity to the way some people in power actually think. Last year, John Howard, Australias's Prime Minister and former treasurer was asked about his response to the housing bubble in Australia. His reply was that "he didn't hear many homeowners complaining about their increased wealth". It set me thinking about why he didn't just drop interest rates to zero. That way everybody could afford whatever house they liked and the value of everybody's house would go up dramatically. Surely by John Howard's logic we would all benefit from increased wealth and the country would be better off.

No picking on Clapham. Any place that can claim to have 5 different train stations deserves respect.

Very naive article. Car sales only jumped 10% in the U.S. last month because General Motors extended their employee price (i.e. close to wholesale) to all customers. They lost bags of money in the process but at least they got rid of their inventory. Trouble is car sales are going to be crap for the next few months as a result. Manufacturers can only pass on higher material costs up to a point before they go broke. As I write, Nymex Crude Oil is up $1.44 to $63.75. The oil companies may be happy, but not many in the rest of the economy.

Yeah, STR sucks. I bought my last house in 2000 for $Aus650k, sold in 2003 for $Aus920k. Since then I have rented a couple of places one of which I paid 1.8% of its value p.a. in rent, and the latest one 2% of its value p.a. in rent. These houses by the way are much better than the house I sold, but I am still paying less in rent per month than my last mortgage. Meanwhile the money I got from the sale of my house has been invested, about 75% in fixed interest at 5.7%, and the rest invested in oil and resources shares (BHP,Hardman and Woodside) which have gone up 30%, 25% and 50% respectively since I bought them 6 months ago. The Australian property market has stagnated since we sold, with falls in some cities and little of no growth in others, and the property crash has yet to really bite. So there is no way we are behind by being out of the market. So a term for STRs like me? What about HAPIS (Happy As a Pig In Sh*t)

Actually, the number of people claouring for a rate cut is proof that the crash is starting to bite. What they don't realise is that the BoE is now between a rock and a hard place. Cut interest rates and the pound sinks into the toilet, raising the cost of imports and setting of a nasty bout of imported inflation. Interest rates would have to go back up eventually, but the eventual recession would be worse than if the BoE just bit the bullet and did things properly now. There is no way out of this now, there is a recession and property crash coming, and nothing the BoE can do is going to stop it.

Excellent article. I was wondering whether the prevalence of fixed rate mortgages is actually making the bubble worse in the U.S. With the long term rates falling even as Greenspan raises short term rates, I think it has given a lot of buyers in the U.S. the oportunity to buy property with confidence that their interest payments are not going to go up in the life of the mortgage. Unfortunately, the effect of this confidence has been to exagerate the resulting buying mania, resulting in a rapidly inflating bubble. Although it may be true that their interest payments will not rise, this does not protect them from long term drops in the value of the property they have purchased, nor from the threat of negative equity. It looks like it has gone up at a more dramatic rate in the past 12 months than the U.K or Australia ever experienced, and is likely to stop even more rapidly. The U.S. bubble will come to a grinding halt soon, and it is not going to be pretty.

My feeling is that the market has paused due to there not being an interest rate rise for a few months, but another interest rate rise or two will start the decline again. ABN AMRO seems to agree, see this article That said, Perth property still seems to be rising, albeit at a slower rate. The Western Australian economy is buoyant due to a strong oil and mining sector, so it is taking time for reality to hit home. It does mean that there has been a very large number of big homes built recently and some of their owners seem to be getting nervous. Witness the number of $1million plus homes for sale in my suburb, many of these have been for sale for 3-6 months - link here