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House Price Crash Forum


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About mclihah2

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  1. WTF? Has this site not moved on at all? I was reading these type of remarks in 2004, all warning us that the tipping point had come, and the housing market was going to crash VERY SOON. Yet here we are 2007, and we are still hearing that the housing market is going to crash VERY SOON. Fool of a Took
  2. Scooter It's not gunno happen!! Certainly not in the way that some of the people here think.. Like many people, I used to take this forum and website very seriously, but then years passed, and things carried on regardless. The problem... is that if you look at the non-inflation-adjusted version of the graph from the front page, you will see that in the previous 'crashes', in general house prices didn't actually drop, instead they just slowed down. Certainly there was no plummet (in general). If you show the not-inflation-adjusted picture to people, I am sure that the overwhelming majority would use the old axiom "house prices never fall"... and they would have good reason to use that. If this time things are the same as before... what we will find is that house prices slow down, and then when inflation catches up, house prices shoot up again. There are too many people that are prepared to jump-on, if house prices were to drop even slightly. If I had listened to the opinions on this forum, I would have STR a couple of years ago and lost out on the gained capital of my house. Instead, I sold and bought a step-up the ladder 4 months ago.. when it was convenient for me. Meanwhile the housing market in my area has continued unabaited. In conclusion. Most of the really vocal people on this forum are as vested in their interests as the likes of Kirsty Allsop. They just come from the opposite end of the spectrum, and both sides are equally blind to the true middle-picture. I think you should just get on with your life. If you need to upgrade your house (for real life reasons.. like having a child)... then do it If you need to sell (for real life reasons like taking a 3 year round-world trip)... then do it If you need to buy, then buy If you cannot afford to buy... then saver. and so on..
  3. Have to say, that I'm (clearly) being a bit cheeky. My situation is similar, in that I have taken measures to minimise the impact of interest rates on my mortgage...and selling my old house. But I have been following HPC for enough time, and was initially taken in by the 30% drop in proces nonsense. Although I am still a bear, I got fed up with the mentaility here. I mean most of the hardcore bears, are really bulls by another name, zealots that want to catch the trough, and make a load of money. I would have thought bears, just want to buy a house, in a way that reduces their risk. Well the truth is, a lot of bears here have had that opportunity (as I have had), but the problem is that there are too many greedy bears that want to make money off the suffereing of others. Be it Eonomic breakdown, bird flu or nuclear armageddon... whatever it takes for prices to drop 30%! Remember the Monkey? he had the right idea, and got on with his life (probably affordably too) Anyway, my thesis is that the 0.5% move will make little to no difference. Especially with talk that rates will only ever go up once more before peaking. This is not a 5% to 15% overnight situation (like the last crash). I think Stagflation is the order of the day. Enjoy, however, this perceived victory of the rate rise if you want... or just figure out a way to get on the next rung of the ladder (in a reasonably unrisky way...it can be done), and get on with you God-given blessed life. That's what I have done. My sentiments exactly
  4. Interest Rates 5%, and I completed yesterday (purchased) Do I look worried? Not really
  5. Like I said in my post "if you want/need to buy and can afford the house, with a bit of leeway" It's what I have done, and have also been very fortunate (Thank God) to have found something that needs a bit of work, and thus sold to me at 30% less than others on the same street. There still exist opportunities like that. In such a case, I say.. just get on with life. I certainly would not condone getting a mortgage that stretches oneself, with a risk incase of higher interest rates etc. The distinction that I am making is between buying a house because you want/need to move, and can afford it..... and the alternative, as suggested by meany bears here, which is to sit on your cash, and wait for a 30% drop. I just don't think that it's very likely to happen anymore. Ironically, this site is proving that it is different this time... The graph on the frontpage is showing that we are in uncharted waters.
  6. I think it should stay. It's there to prove a point and watching it plateau is teaching us all something new.... Dunno what yet! We are in uncharted territory here. The graph hasn't carried on going up, it hasn't plummeted down... it's just done that thing that we thought was impossible.... plateaued at a very high level. Removing it would only undermine this website and remove whatever credibility it has left. FYI, I am a bear, but as a scientist I have to say... the numbers speak for themselves.
  7. The sad thing is that I have been reading this kind of thing for the last X years on this website. It seems now that there is a flurry of bears posting, desperately hoping for the bubble to burst under its own weight. Unfortunately, there are too many stupid people out there who the banks will lend money to. As a consequence, this bubble just is not bursting. You know, it's entirely possible for this bubble to carry on and, then rest, then to carry on.... and never deflate. Whilst this kind of opinion is usually meant with smug derision, the fact is that the same smug-derision has been going on for the last 2 years, with no bubble bursting. I say to people, if you want/need to buy and can afford the house, with a bit of leeway, then get on with your life and buy. That's what I did, and although I feel like a fool for believing the hype on this website over the last years... I was never really in a position that I needed to move, until now. Hence the housepricecrash mentality didn't affect my actions. This bubble has plenty of life left in it. There are plenty of sheeple who are out there that will be more than happy to overstretch themselves.
  8. I got as far as the David Dickenson Audio Clip, before I stopped myself from wasting any more time. Euggghghhg. I feel all dirty.
  9. What a load of nonesense! I remeber, about this time last year, there was some prediction about how it was going to be one of the coldest winters for xxx years. It turned out to be nice and mild. It was quite widely reported. This happens every year!!
  10. I've got a feeling that this oil price rise is going to start freaking people out...Only .when it's too late. I remember last year when we hot the $50 per barrell mark. There was abit of a scare, but it all calmed down, because it wasn't necessarily ALL that significant. I also remember listening to some expert on radio, that when oil hit's the $60 mark, there won't be as big of a deal, because $50 is more of a rounded number than $60. Now it's at $66?, this is now a 30%+ increase from the $50 mark. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if we see the $100 mark in the next year or so... That's the point when people will start panicking.
  11. BECAUSE: For the vast majority of people, there is no crash, there is going to be no crash, and things are slowing down... ...but not reversing. I've been a bigh HPC.co.uk fan for a long time, and even I'm not convinced that prices are going to come a tumbling. Fortunately for me, I don;t have to move for another year, and only then do I have to seriously decide whether to buy or rent. But the thing is that the vast majority of people will get their information from their usual 'trusted' sources, and these sources are still saying that everything is fine. I think that the general allusion out there is that house prices will always be this expensive, and if they DO drop, then it will only be small. I think there will only be a massive change in sentiment ONLY when we are a good way down the slope... but of course then it would be a classic bubble collapse, accellerating towards the trough.
  12. Well this is a funny little predicament isn't it? I don't think a year ago that people on this site were looking at a possible recession. It was all about house prices... It seems that that game has turned bigger than house prices, and that the whole economy is in danger. For my part, I knew something was up when I saw the article about B&Q having trouble. The thing about B&Q is that everybody uses it.. The rich, and the not-so rich. It's a big business, and very much tied into the housing market - feelgood factor. Interesting times ahead...I hope I don't get bitten by the (possible) slump.
  13. I would agree, but the way I think we would like to approach the next buy would be to buy a new house, and THEN sell our current house... No chain issues as far as we are concerned. Initial mortgage payment would be high, but once we sell our house, then we can make a MASSIVE overpayment, and cut our interest payments down drastically. .. . Well that's the plan!!
  14. Thanks for the replies guys. I think where I am standing (and after reading the replies with my wife). I reckon we are gunno stay putt for a year. We will probably buy then, and sell this house. As long as the house stays somewhere above £60k, then we haven't lost out (we brought at £60k, it's probably now worth £120k)... And if it DOES drop substantially, then hopefully the house bracket we are looking at will have dropped by a larger amount. (same percentage, but larger cash amount) Certainly, it looks like House prices aren't going up any more (even in Manchester), and we DO certainly want to move next year to a nicer area. So precis.. Staying putt. Saving our wages. Going on Holiday next month. No financial stress (thank God). Buy next year, and then sell this house. Probably the least stressfull way.
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