Waiting Patiently Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I think maybe we've hit a bottom but we will be hitting that bottom for quite some time. I remember the recessions of the seventies, eighties, and nineties. On a regular basis some professional liar or deluded idiot would pop up in the media to announce that the worst was over but the recession and it's consequences just went on and on and from bad to worse. This is the mother of all of them and isn't even a quarter of the way through yet. The same thing happened in the house price crash of the nineties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRMX9 Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 CEBR change their predictions every 5 minutes - weren't they saying there was no chance of any house price falls back in 2007. In the end house prices will be affected by the economic situation and credit availability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loginandtonic Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I think maybe we've hit a bottom but we will be hitting that bottom for quite some time. or The Spanking Recession as it will come to be known Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonBrownSpentMyFuture Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 The CEBR? What... this CEBR? UK houses now worth trillions Monday, 25 March, 2002, 01:46 GMT http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1891360.stm Homeowners in the UK together have houses worth a total of more than £2.1 trillion, an economic think-tank has said.But the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) says there is little evidence that people are overborrowed. ... Annual house price inflation - 3% during 2002 - could rise faster because of the low ratio of mortgage payments to income and unused borrowing capacity. But the CEBR believes the housing boom will not continue in the short-term because mortgage rates are likely to go up in the second half of the year and people's disposable income is likely to be stretched. Homes 'to cost £300,000 by 2020' Monday, 22 April, 2002, 02:49 GMT 03:49 UK http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1942084.stm The average price of a home in the UK could hit £300,000 by 2020, a new study suggests.If the figures prove true, the rise could destroy any chance of ensuring affordable housing for those on low pay without major policy changes. ... The snail's pace of reform in the planning laws means that there is no way housebuilding can possibly keep up with demand, according to the CEBR's Housing Futures 2012 study. The result: house prices growing, on average, by 6.24% a year between 2002 and 2020, meaning the price of the typical home will rise from £101,164 to £300,643. House prices 'set to double' Sunday, 20 April, 2003, 07:31 GMT 08:31 UK http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2961549.stm House prices will more than double during the next two decades, according to a report to be published later this month.The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) study says homeowners are assured a substantial second income from the value of their properties. ... The CEBR said the average homeowner today has an outstanding mortgage of £55,000 on a property worth £114,500, meaning their mortgage is worth around 48% of their property's value. But by 2020, the average home will have risen in value to £279,900 and the average outstanding mortgage will have increased much more slowly to only £99,000 or 35% of the property's value. Forgive me if I don't go out and panic buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otters Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...R-declares.htmlIs it time to wind this all up then, I think not! There seems to be too many "experts" shooting from the hip, making very rash, and profound statements. It is so obvious, that we are now being force fed too much hype. The fact that this is done so blatantly, shows to me what a desperate state of affairs we're in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 (edited) CEBR Feb 2008 I am reasonably comfortable with the idea that the UK economy is unlikely to go into recession in the near future. Although consumer growth has slowed, the housing sector is looking pretty sick and the city has slowed down to walking pace, it looks as though growth this year will be in the 1 - 2 per cent range rather than negative. But that is not the end of the story. The fiscal surpluses developed in the mid 1990s meant that the dot com slowdown could be offset in the UK by fiscal expansion. Government spending was grown rapidly while taxes were raised much more slowly. However the continued deterioration of the underlying fiscal position in the UK means that this is not possible now …quot; au contraire fiscal consolidation will be necessary in the coming years, probably on a scale of £10 - 15 billion looking out three years. At the same time, the Monetary Policy Committee was able to respond to temporary slowing in growth by cutting interest rates to boost the housing sector, stock markets and consumer borrowing. This was done at a time when demand for sterling was high and interest rates elsewhere were low and so UK interest rates could be cut with little risk of a collapse in sterling that would place inflation objectives at risk. Today, the Bank of England, perhaps over pessimistically, fears both rising inflation and a run on the pound if it cuts interest rates too fast or by too much. So it warns us not to expect as much as had been priced in by the market before last week... Summary (from Feb 2008): - UK to avoid recession in 2008/09. - UK fiscal consolidation of £10-15Bn over years 2008 -2010. - Not much in the way of interest rate cuts. - Watch out for inflation. Genius. edit: formatting Edited August 10, 2009 by Timm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest An Bearin Bui Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 There seems to be too many "experts" shooting from the hip, making very rash, and profound statements. It is so obvious, that we are now being force fed too much hype. The fact that this is done so blatantly, shows to me what a desperate state of affairs we're in. All this hype is getting a bit much right now. CEBR pumping up the market back in 2007 was one thing but hyping the market now is just damaging the economy and will end up costing us all money. The more headlines that appear like this, the more sellers will hang on and the more supply becomes choked up. Now bulls might think this is a good thing as it will prop up prices but it's actually a bad thing for everyone. Buyers simply can't afford 2007 prices with the prop of easy lending gone. If sellers don't accept this then their properties will just sit on the market. Having a housing market in a state of catatonia with nothing selling and no-one buying isn't good news for anyone. Where I am, nothing has been selling or is being reduced in price or coming up for sale for months now. It's just the same old properties, all on at the same old prices (some realistic, some not) and I've never seen any of them marked 'sold' yet. This is just prolonging the pain to cause damage in the long-term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
judas Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I think maybe we've hit a bottom but we will be hitting that bottom for quite some time. I don't think we have hit the bottom. But the bottom will not be nearly as far of peak as some on here expected it to be. Lets all laugh at the 80-90% peak to trough merchants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilroy Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I don't think we have hit the bottom.But the bottom will not be nearly as far of peak as some on here expected it to be. Lets all laugh at the 80-90% peak to trough merchants. Difficult, as they have not been proven wrong. Time will tell, but to laugh at them now is a little premature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadman Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Confused + Evidently Bloody Retards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...R-declares.htmlIs it time to wind this all up then, I think not! http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090810/tuk-fu...ed-dba1618.html .../ "The key question now is the extent to which rising unemployment and weak wage growth will lead to a second wave of house price falls, or whether this has already been built in to existing expectations. IMO, the falls have a long way to go. Affordabilty in an environment of high unemployment, tight credit and incipient deflation all bode well for buyers in a year or so's time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 CEBR change their predictions every 5 minutes - weren't they saying there was no chance of any house price falls back in 2007.In the end house prices will be affected by the economic situation and credit availability. To be more precise, LIAR LOAN availability, until we get back to 3 x annual income. Then it will be credit availability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazuya Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 QE and a bit of sun and short skirts Don't forget the skin cancer topping? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcojo Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Everyone in the know has been saying it's over for a while now. Only the tinfoil hat brigade who congregate on this site don't want to believe it as they want something for nothing. Still, at least it keeps them in one place. Like a zoo that we can all come a look at and point and laugh from time to time. Priceless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Everyone in the know has been saying it's over for a while now. Only the tinfoil hat brigade who congregate on this site don't want to believe it as they want something for nothing. Still, at least it keeps them in one place. Like a zoo that we can all come a look at and point and laugh from time to time. Priceless. – Contrarian Warning Sign Number Two: Constant references to the forummembership as monolithic. "You guys are all just [descriptor]." "You're a lynch mob." "You all just want to ridicule anyone who disagrees with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kazuya Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I'm off to buy a 10x10ft flat for £500,000 in Croyden with a Northern Rock intergenerational 225% mortgage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eric pebble Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Still, at least it keeps them in one place. Like a zoo that we can all come a look at and point and laugh from time to time. Priceless. Were you laughing when prices declined 20%? [Officially]; 35% Unofficially]. Or did you agree that was going to happen? I bet the honest answer to the last question is "no". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bagsos Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Everyone in the know has been saying it's over for a while now. Only the tinfoil hat brigade who congregate on this site don't want to believe it as they want something for nothing. Still, at least it keeps them in one place. Like a zoo that we can all come a look at and point and laugh from time to time. Priceless. The people I know who are "in the know" say that for good stuff in sensible locations in London and the southeast, you are correct; HPC hardly happening at all now, and peak to trough 10% -15%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
expatowner Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Everyone in the know has been saying it's over for a while now. Only the tinfoil hat brigade who congregate on this site don't want to believe it as they want something for nothing. Still, at least it keeps them in one place. Like a zoo that we can all come a look at and point and laugh from time to time. Priceless. I'm with you on this one. Many people on here wouldn't recognise the market bottom if it farted at them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imminent_plunge Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I'm off to buy a 10x10ft flat for £500,000 in Croyden with a Northern Rock intergenerational 225% mortgage. Why not two? They'll be worth over a million within a couple of years with 'canny buyers' 'snapping them up' Sorry, two of my most hated media ramping phrases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewBuildBuyer Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 I'm with you on this one.Many people on here wouldn't recognise the market bottom if it farted at them. hahaha! classic and so true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imminent_plunge Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Everyone in the know has been saying it's over for a while now. Only the tinfoil hat brigade who congregate on this site don't want to believe it as they want something for nothing. Still, at least it keeps them in one place. Like a zoo that we can all come a look at and point and laugh from time to time. Priceless. Likewise, I find it quite amazing how many bulls are out there as regular readers and posters. Surely you wouldn't all be wasting your time arguing the toss on HPC unless you saw a real possibility of dramatic price falls in the future? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewBuildBuyer Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Were you laughing when prices declined 20%? [Officially]; 35% Unofficially]. Or did you agree that was going to happen? I bet the honest answer to the last question is "no". Did you tell people to get out of the market in 2006 saying a crash was imminent? To sum up most on here:- Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 The people I know who are "in the know" say that for good stuff in sensible locations in London and the southeast, you are correct; HPC hardly happening at all now, and peak to trough 10% -15%. For now on ultra low transaction volumes. What happens next year when we get massive public spending cuts; massive tax rises and big jumps in interest rates is another matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mammon Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 A quick look on rightmove shows most properties being offered at or above peak prices. No signs of any panic sellers. All the weak hands (forced sellers) have already been shaken out of the market over the last two years. Sure you still get the odd death/divorce type sale, but most of these get snapped up quickly if priced realistically 10 to 15% below peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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