three pint princess Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 I don't like to go through predictions too much because we all make bad ones. But they seem to be lagging a long way back and constantly updating their predictions usually way too optimistic. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7214777.stmTuesday, 29 January 2008 The latest group to make such a prediction, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), forecast that average property prices will drop by 2.5%, or £11,000, during 2008. But the CEBR said it expected prices to recover during 2009, boosted by the likelihood of further interest rate cuts this year combined with supply shortages. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/au...ion.housepricesThe Observer, Sunday 3 August 2008 House prices, already falling in most areas of the UK, will decline by 15 per cent peak-to-trough from the end of 2007 to the middle of 2009. Ben Read, the CEBR's senior economist, said that the fundamentals of the housing market were still relatively tight. He added: 'Whilst the short-term prospects for the housing market look bleak ... the sharp drop in building completions will mean higher prices if and when the credit markets sort themselves out. They quickly change and probably honeslty try to predict but what a poor reading, 2.5% decline for for 2008? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spivT Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 Expect another load of crud from the Scotsman who has an imaginary property portfolio and a job that takes him round the world (rent boy) he works from home, dammit. and he has no understanding of how the public and private sectors function and interact. he's a sheep. baaah!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonnybegood Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 (edited) I think their report is one of the most open and honest I have seen, with a realistic prediction. On the BBC website they are quoting falls of 28% from peak with a number of years of very slow HPI, sounds quite reasonable, we have had some positive market data the last couple of months and the stock market is staying above 4000 with a bit more stability, that I think is the key word stability. It just seems that all the bad news and write downs are all priced in and now the air has cleared many financial institutions are seeing their books are a bit healthier than they first thought. By the end of this year we should see the worst of the job losses out of the way, with a further 2-3 years of public sector job cuts, what must be remembered is large percentage of these job cuts have been through natural wastage, migrant workers and even contract jobs that have pulled the plug early. Its been mentioned on here before that many people in this country have never been in a position to buy their own home, these are normally the kinds of people who get hit worst when the job cull comes along, so buying power of homeowners is not reduced by the amount the media like people to think. During our last large round of job cuts in the company in 1996, out of the 2320 losing their jobs only 600 went through compulsory and that made the local headlines for weeks, it was only when you scratched the surface you could see that only a quarter were forced out. Add to all this the billions pumped into the system that takes months to take affect, the historic low IR (that will stay low at least till the next election), massive amounts of debt being cleared by households daily due to the small savings rates and ability to overpay on mortgages, the attractions of bricks and mortar over fiat money and the impact of inflation its quite hard to see where the 50% falls across the board that some have predicted here will come from. We have seen the low point for the British financial institutions, manufacturing still in decline but slowing and could turn by the end of year helped along by the exchange rate. Like I say job losses still to bottom and that is why a further 10-12% decline in house prices as they predict sounds quite reasonable. Only bit I disagree with is the 2013 date, I think we are looking at 5-10 years of very little HPI from the bottom of this market. Edited May 4, 2009 by Jonnybegood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pindar Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 January Friday 04 JAN 1991 - The Times - House prices;London House prices in London could rise by 3 per cent in the next six months, the estate agent Barnard Marcus predicted in its quarterly survey of prices. Saturday 05 JAN 1991 - The Times - Record fall in house prices House prices fell by a record 10.7 per cent last year, the Nationwide Anglia building society reported yesterday in its end-of-year survey. The figures showing the biggest recorded annual fall and, for the last three months of 1990, the biggest quart... Thursday 10 JAN 1991 - The Times - House price rises suggest a recovery House prices in London and southwest England showed a small increase during the last quarter of 1990, the first rise since the slump in the property market began in the summer of 1988, the Halifax building society said yesterday. The society's latest... Wednesday 16 JAN 1991 - The Times - Agent fined over house price claim An estate agent was fined £800 yesterday over a "grossly misleading" advertisement claiming that the price of a house had been cut by £30,000. The case is believed to be the first brought under section three of the Consumer Protection February Monday 04 FEB 1991 - The Times - House prices in the late 1980s are not to blame for the recession The increase in house prices in the late 1980s was not to blame for the present recession, according to an article in Housing Finance, the journal of the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The article, by Jarlath Costello and Adrian Coles, also rejects the... Sunday 10 FEB 1991 - The Sunday Times - House prices 'may not recover this year' Time could be running out for any significant increase in house prices this year. The Abbey National, whose house-price forecast has been developed with the London Business School, is expected to halve its previous estimate for growth. The figures wi... March Wednesday 06 MAR 1991 - The Times - House price rises predicted this year House prices remained almost static between January and February, indicating that the market has finally bottomed out, the Nationwide Anglia Building Society reported yesterday. The society's price survey found that at the end of last month the avera... Wednesday 13 MAR 1991 - The Times - House prices predicted to rise 66% over five years House prices in the UK are predicted to rise by an average of 66 per cent over the next five years as the housing market recovers from the slump through falling inflation and interest rates. The Housing Mortgage Corporation, in its latest house price... Saturday 30 MAR 1991 - The Times - London house prices 'up 0.5%' House prices in greater London have increased in the past three months for the first time since September 1988, the estate agent Barnard Marcus reports in a survey to be published on Tuesday. The agent, which has 50 offices in the region, also report... April Monday 08 APR 1991 - The Times - House prices are not the problem The cult of the "property owning democracy" seems to be following its high-priestess into oblivion, especially since the Chancellor smashed the Golden Calf by abolishing higher rate tax relief on mortgages in last month's Budget. These days, the p... Sunday 21 APR 1991 - The Sunday Times - Country houses fall 15% in price The biggest casualties of the property slump were country houses in the home counties and "other southern regions", according to Savills, the estate agency that buys and sells houses for the rich, writes Andrew Yates. In a research document publish... May Wednesday 01 MAY 1991 - The Times - The price is right in the housing basement A repossessed home's worth is measured, not by estate agents' hype, but by the price it fetches at auction, reports Michael Horsnell The bargain basement of Britain's property market is in the grip of a new phenomenon as thousands of repossessed home... Thursday 02 MAY 1991 - The Times - Residents fear fall in house prices BR's choice of the south London route for the Channel tunnel link has stirred strong protests from those in its path. Residents in Peckham, southeast London reacted angrily last night to British Rail's final decision to endorse a southerly route for ... Monday 20 MAY 1991 - The Times - House prices 'to rise by 2% at most' Some 80,000 repossessed homes will be on the market during 1991, according to the economics team of UBS Phillips & Drew, the securities group. It says that the properties, equivalent to a medium-sized town, will soak up demand and, with rising unemp... Friday 24 MAY 1991 - The Times - Bank set to act on house prices The Governor of the Bank of England warned the Building Societies Association conference in Glasgow that a resurgence of house price inflation would be firmly countered by the authorities. Robin Leigh-Pemberton, who said earlier this year he was prep... June Saturday 01 JUN 1991 - The Times - House price inflation From Mr M. R. Darke Sir, Who is kidding whom? I find Robin Leigh-Pemberton's reported remark ("Bank set to act on house prices", May 24) to the Building Societies Association conference commenting on house price inflation that "with hindsight, th... Saturday 01 JUN 1991 - The Times - House price inflation From Mr Richard Wardrop Sir, Following Mr Leigh-Pemberton's comments on house price inflation, I am prompted to ask what plans he has to bring bank employees' mortgage rates into line with the rest of us poor (sic) mortals? He might also care to comm... Saturday 01 JUN 1991 - The Times - Georgian furniture attracts top prices in house sale Good examples of Georgian furniture prompted keen bidding when the contents of a cliff top house at Mevagissey, Cornwall, were sold for Pounds 224,269. The sale at the home of the late Ronald Strauss, a retired City financier, was expected by Phillip... Tuesday 04 JUN 1991 - The Times - 2% house price rise is biggest for year House prices increased by 2 per cent last month compared with the previous month, the largest monthly rise since March 1990, the Nationwide Building Society reported yesterday in its latest ouse price index. Nationwide said the increase followed the ... Sunday 30 JUN 1991 - The Sunday Times - House price rises boost hopes in London, but recovery to be slow London's housing market is emerging slowly from the slump, according to two reports to be published this week. The recovery is fragile and dogged by economic uncertainty, but prices in some areas are beginning to rise and the number of sales has inc... July Monday 08 JUL 1991 - The Times - House prices 'to stay static' House prices are forecast to remain static over the next two years despite the expected 1 per cent drop in mortgage rates before the end of the year. Schroders, the merchant bank, estimates in its latest Economic Perspective that on top of an expecte... August Thursday 08 AUG 1991 - The Times - Halifax building society revises its forecast on house prices The Halifax building society yesterday revised its forecast of a 5 per cent increase in house prices this year. Britain's biggest building society said it now expected prices to rise by less than 3 per cent this year due to the recession and soaring... Thursday 22 AUG 1991 - The Times - House slump narrows North-South price gap The housing market slump has had a savage effect in the south of the country while leaving the north relatively unscathed, narrowing the gap in prices between the two, the Council of Mortgage Lenders reports today. Its study of the market shows that ... September Sunday 08 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - Weekly watch on UK house prices The most comprehensive weekly information service on home ownership in the United Kingdom starts today with the launch of The Sunday Times House Price Index, compiled with Morgan Grenfell, the merchant bank. The index combines data from the two bigge... Wednesday 11 SEP 1991 - The Times - House prices From Mrs Eileen Scott Sir, You report (September 3) that council-tax bills may be higher than predicted because of an apparent miscalculation of average house prices. The environment department is quoted as saying: "We stand by our figures. They t... Sunday 29 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - House-price surge is on the way, but wait for it Plummeting prices, higher earnings and mortgage rates of less than 10% have set the stage for a housing market revival next year, when prices are expected to rise by more than inflation. A report due to be published next month by UBS Phillips & Drew,... Sunday 29 SEP 1991 - The Sunday Times - Sunday Times House Price Index;Property The Sunday Times House Price Index this week publishes figures from the Halifax building society, comparing price movements since October 1988 in the north and southeast of England. While the southeast has suffered falls, prices have risen in the nor... October Thursday 10 OCT 1991 - The Time - Fall in house prices dashes market hopes House prices fell by 0.8 per cent last month and by 1.1 per cent in the quarter to the end of September, dashing hopes that the market might show signs of recovery by the end of the year, according to figures from the Halifax Building Society yesterd... Sunday 20 OCT 1991 - The Sunday Times - House prices fall by 2% despite interest rate cut If statistics are to be believed, the Scottish property market is still some way from showing signs of recovery, writes Wendy Travis. A house price index, compiled by GA Property Services, shows a decrease of over 2% in Scottish house prices between ... November Tuesday 05 NOV 1991 - The Times - Maverick pays price for loans that were not safe as houses;Building societies As the Town & Country Building Society sees its future `with the Woolwich', Lindsay Cook reports on the background to the merger and assesses the outlook for the societies The Building Societies Commission has had to steady the nerves of building soc... Thursday 21 NOV 1991 - The Times - Falling house prices House prices remain static in much of England and Wales and are still falling in parts of the South-East, according to the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, published today. Seven out of ten estate agents in the South-E... December Thursday 05 DEC 1991 - The Times - Market weak House prices fell by almost 1 per cent last month, confirming that the market remains "very weak", the Halifax Building Society said yesterday, publishing its latest figures. For the year ending in November prices declined by 2.4 per cent and are l... Wednesday 18 DEC 1991 - The Times - Builders hit by fear of more house price falls;Stock Market The growing number of house repossessions and the government's attempts to halt these depressed the construction industry. The prospect of house prices continuing to fall for the foreseeable future caused the shares of the big contractors, already k... Thursday 19 DEC 1991 - The Times - Record repossessions are keeping down house prices The property market is being held back as repossessed houses are resold in some areas at up to 30 per cent below their true value. Ray Clancy reports repossessions are having a significant impact on the housing market, keeping prices low in many par... Monday 30 DEC 1991 - The Times - House prices stuck 'till 1993' The housing market should begin to recover in the spring, but house prices are unlikely to show real gains until 1993, the Halifax Building Society says in its annual review published today. The review, prepared before the announcement of a rescue pa... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 This is all rubbish. Expect this kind of ramping every spring for the next three years. In the end, everyone will realise we are the new Japan and prices are not going to rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endofcrash2 Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 'Positive figures' - a few more people entering EA's and house prices only fell 0.4% House prices actually went up this month. Just that the seasonal adjustment factor brings it back to a negative. Wait till latter in the year when the seasonal adjustment goes the other way and we will start to see some big rises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 House prices actually went up this month. Just that the seasonal adjustment factor brings it back to a negative. Wait till latter in the year when the seasonal adjustment goes the other way and we will start to see some big rises. endofcrash2 Group: Members Posts: 101 Joined: 2-January 09 Member No.: 18,317 Bull or Bear? Neither See below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 extra tax to cover the interest due on the extra £175bn needed each and every year for the next 3 years, and thats optimistic, says no. Money will be too tight to mention. still, a shortage of housing?....thats an interesting idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
righttoleech Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 Will we never be free of this psychopathic ramping.........its doing my head in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 Will we never be free of this psychopathic ramping.........its doing my head in and who is paying the CEBR to publish these thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pindar Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 and who is paying the CEBR to publish these thoughts? Gordon's shrink? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spivT Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 i'd be more interested in what RICs actually predict for prices by 2012/2013.....in the past they've been more accurate than most, although clearly calling a rise for much of the noughties wasn't exactly rocket science. i don't think they'd be daft enough to put % predictions on rise in 2011. unlike the cebr, who let's face it are clearly trying to make a name for themselves by being one of the first in to call and date the recovery.....risky strategy if this business were about being right 3 times out of 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE BALD MAN Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 Sybil. Do you really think the CEBR revised their forecasts just because you have been spamming every message board and forum you can find quoting their previous worst case scenario?WOW. When CEBR predict 40% falls: Yaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy, CEBR is the best!!!!!!!! When CEBR change their forecast to only 28% falls: CEBR sucks, bunch of muppets!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Stupid think tank!!!!!!! CEBR are just economists working for their vested interest clients. What credibility do they have??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mal Volio Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 House prices actually went up this month. Just that the seasonal adjustment factor brings it back to a negative. Wait till latter in the year when the seasonal adjustment goes the other way and we will start to see some big rises. Youmean, exactly like what didn't happen last autumn/winter ? The point is that now is spring bounce time - and it's not happening. It's the death of hope for deluded sellers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spivT Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 Will we never be free of this psychopathic ramping.........its doing my head in let history and the fundamentals be your consolation from the incessant ramping. It really isn't that different this time, most fallouts from asset bubbles bursting follow a similar pattern to what we're seeing. in my area, in one year alone between 2002 and 2003 i believe, prices went up by over 25% YoY . that's in one year !!! that was followed by more, albeit less spectacular rises. IF the late 90's was the market correcting from an overcorrection on the downside that preceded, how do we describe rises of up to 25% YoY....it just continued to rise when it should have corrected. to think even with the most bullish of predcitoins, many properties will have seen those astronomical gains reversed by the time the tide goes out on this one. Where are we now supposedly ? 2004 prices ? we're not even close to being done yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneyfornothing Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 endofcrash2Group: Members Posts: 101 Joined: 2-January 09 Member No.: 18,317 Bull or Bear? Neither So do these guys get paid per post or is it more likely they have to make a minimum number of posts per day .. with overtime on the weekends.. ? See below. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 i'd be more interested in what RICs actually predict for prices by 2012/2013.....in the past they've been more accurate than most, although clearly calling a rise for much of the noughties wasn't exactly rocket science.i don't think they'd be daft enough to put % predictions on rise in 2011. unlike the cebr, who let's face it are clearly trying to make a name for themselves by being one of the first in to call and date the recovery.....risky strategy if this business were about being right 3 times out of 10. In March 2009 : Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said: Most of the house price indices suggest prices have fallen by up to 20pc from the peak. However, many of our members [surveyors and estate agents] cast doubt on this and calculate independently that the scale of price falls has been even greater − 30pc or more already. They suspect the Nationwide and Halifax figures are underestimating scale of the peak-to-trough fall to date. Looking at the surveys you have to come to the conclusion that we aren't at the bottom by any stretch yet. Our members are still expecting further falls in prices, according to our survey, and if there's anyone you might expect to be talking up the market it is them. There are some glimmers of hope. Our measure of the sales to stock ratio − a key indication of market activity, is stabilising, bouncing along the bottom, but it could easily lurch lower. We are also seeing more signs of buyer interest. But how that feeds into demand is another question. Much of this may actually be window-shopping. Some may be putting offers in for homes but failing to get a mortgage agreed. Either way this demand isn't yet feeding into prices. All of our analytical work comes to the conclusion that prices will continue to weaken, and we still expect them to fall by another 10pc or so, which would take the total drop in prices to around 30pc. There are some people talking about falls of 50pc or so. Mmm wondered at the time what EA's he spoke to or do they say something completely different behind closed doors? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smiffy1967 Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 That is not it at all. I question why CEBR would have changed their minds as per my reply to you here: HPC Link Why would someone who has a nice home, good life, money etc and believes that people who can't earn good money should go an live in tents be spending a Bank Holiday on HPC? Hamish and sybil live in a land that can only be described as fantasy land, thre never factor in other economic circumstances. for instance, Britain in the early 1980's had just become a swing state when it came to oil production, we became an energy rich state and our currency was known as a petro pound, we relied unlike our european friends with large amounts of our debt based money going out of our country for energy or the be all and end all of economic activity - wealth creation. Instead we were importing debt free money. Today the table has turned, our inherited wealth in the form of hydro carbons is diminishing whilst we still have an energy hungry country, our debt or government debt is sky high, our individual personal debt is un=payable. If house prices dont drop another 40% over the next 3 years, i will eat my hat. There is nothing left to save us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
othello Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 Is the headline good news or bad news? Did economists fear that the market would recover quickly? Now that it is predicted to recover more quickly are they even more fearful? Is the Telegraph saying that the best thing is for a long, drawn-out recovery? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
othello Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 CEBR are just economists working for their vested interest clients. What credibility do they have??? On a par with Mystic Meg? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the anti krust Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 On a par with Mystic Meg? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE BALD MAN Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 On a par with Mystic Meg? I have more belief in Russell Grant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sikejsudjek Posted May 4, 2009 Share Posted May 4, 2009 (edited) More credit will lead to a temporary 'recovery'. Longer term trends of higher unemployment, higher tax, decreasing wages and rising living costs will lead to a further crash in house prices. Once the election is over, expect all hell to break loose in the economy as who ever wins is forced into massive cuts and tax hikes. The flaw in the article is they fail to mention that debt has to be repaid to maintain a sustainable rise in house prices. Those debts are getting much harder to service. Edited May 4, 2009 by sikejsudjek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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