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House Price Crash Forum


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About Jonnybegood

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    HPC Regular
  1. Just shows how bad it would need to get here for prices to fall 50%, bad really bad. Ireland was built on nothing, Britain is different, property was not built on the same scale and the economy is far far stronger. Just not going to happen here folks..Move on
  2. If you think back to 2005 when we had the halt in the housing the market and the first false dawn of potential house price falls. Soon after the markets picked up again and house prices surged even higher to peak in 2007, since the peak there have been mixed reports of both rises and falls of house prices depending on the papers and reports that you read. However the main indices, Halifax , Nationwide and Land registry seem little unchanged over the past couple of years. (One month up one month down). Having looked at a number of different surveys , reports , trends I am of the opinion that
  3. Agree pain will not be felt until we are at 5% levels, it was not long ago we were at close to these levels and everything ticked along quite nicely. Personally I cannot see the rate going above 1.5% by year end and with a large percentage on fixed deals, discount etc there will be very little effect overall. Even if you have been told 3 rises this year, the BOE can still take action a month or 2 later and drop the rate back down once they have analysed the affect of the rise. Realistically they cannot rise to fast with tax rises coming our way, job losses and benefits being pulled, it need
  4. I have a few friends who once worked at Tesco and done really well out of the free shares they got, obviously the further you were up the food chain the more shares you got. Admiral insurance another good example, their staff have received thousands in shares as the company expanded and made good profit, these people were just call centre type staff.
  5. Also don't forget many self employed will declare less earnings for obvious reasons... Many will do undeclared work on their days off Many claim benefits but also work Others get paid out in company shares and bonuses that are often not included in the figures Lots of variables - But I think a true picture is around £30k and even then people also get money from other sources to top up, stock and shares, BTLs, Ebayer etc etc
  6. If they have been sensible in their borrowing as you say they have been then I do not see any issues. They bought in rural Wales 2005 probably at a higher IR, so should now be paying less than they did when they first took out the mortgage. If they took the standard 25 year repayment mortgage with standard 20% deposit they should by now have around 30% equity, would not of thought that prices in rural Wales have fallen by more than 30% since 2005, so from my quick fag packet calculations they should at worst case be at break even if they were to sell up, i.e owe the bank nothing after the sa
  7. For a number of years on here people have kept going on about average uk house prices and average uk wages, officially average wages are around £26k per annum and uk house price £155k . So with a 20% deposit still leaves a 6 x income mortgage that is unaffordable. What these figures do not take into account are those people with second jobs, i.e Doing work on their days off and not declaring Self employed who do cash jobs and don't declare, these can often amount to extra thousands per annum and tax free. Those with large private pensions and still working Those with BTL and getting regula
  8. If you look at 5-10 years then from peak of 2007 could be anywhere between 2012 - 2017. Take the average price of an house before the real boom took off in 2000 (£80,000) you will see that following the long term inflation average of 2.5% + 1% an average house price today should be in the region of £125,000, a 20-25% correction from current prices would be needed to bring us back in line. Inflation I believe over the next 3 - 5 years is going to be far higher than long term average, however I don't feel house prices will go up any higher in nominal terms over the same period so in real terms
  9. For me inflation is now a real risk to world economies and with the US continuing to flood the markets it just seems they will all do anything just to prop up the markets, be it housing or stocks. The DOW and FTSE have continued to rally since the summer when I thought it was going to fall and all indicators and normal logic would have agreed, but QE2 has lifted the market and recently so are the commodities, precious metals and energy stocks all on the rise (I am not moaning I have made significant profits from this sector) but I am now a believer without listing all articles , speeches and
  10. I must say the shift patterns these guys along with the ambulance service and police work do not make much sense to me, its like for half the year taking into account holidays they are off work. Or over the 5 different shift crews 3 are always off work whilst the other 2 work the day and night shift between them. What I have found over the past number of years is that lots of these guys have secondary jobs on their days off, Plumbing , Building etc. Now times have changed and tightening of the belt all round is needed then I think its fair to question the shift patterns and are we getting v
  11. For all those struggling there are still many with lots of cash. Take Wales for example, probably one of the cheapest places in the uk to buy overall. Take the last 10 years away and before then you could have a nice public sector job in Wales paying upwards of £25k and buy a decent 3 bed home for less than £60k, so for those with a decent job in Wales property was cheap (I know I have lived through those days). So many either had nice lifestyles (Holidays, Nice cars) or large families or bought in additional property for buy to let (A typical buy to let back in late 90s £35k) and if it was
  12. What a load of tripe.... Falling house prices have a negative effect on bank cash flow hence the situation in the US in 2008, its where banks have the majority of the lending tied up and 10 years of excessive lending, 125% mortgages, self cert the banks can not afford to see prices fall to levels where walking away and handing back the keys becomes widespread. They are not concerned with making money out of those who have bought in the last 2 years, the numbers are insignificant, they are making enough money now with low IR, paying savers pennies whilst pulling in ££££ from borrowers. An old
  13. i am fully in support of MIS, as a working couple who have never claimed any kind of benefits (except child benefit) and having paid taxes for over 20 years why should you not have any support if you lose your long term employment.
  14. A similar calculation to what I was making... Average house price £135k minus 20% deposit = £108k Average wage £30k x 3.5 = £105k Plus when you add to this a possible 2 income household etc there is support for an average house to cost £130 - £135k even in a tighter lending environment. I am not a fan of comparing IRs because they can change, but at current rates the percentage of outgoings towards a mortgage will be well below average. I know that often 2 income families become 1 for a period when children come along, but like anything else, if your a single income household chasing a de
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