Uk House Prices Rise In Feb As Unrealistic Sellers Raise Asking Prices

[THE BALD MAN]

Don't you read your own site?

Even the hardcore on here admit there is a spring bounce going on.

It's a bet that nobody could win Harry. Yes, you would be able to show me houses that have dropped a lot but you or I wouldn't want to live in them.

Decent houses near good schools are selling well. Not dropping more than 10% either. When you consider most people don't need to sell it looks like you lot will have to up the dosh if you want to buy.

The only bounce in the Uk is employees being bounced out of jobs.

[Harry Monk]

Decent houses near good schools are selling well. Not dropping more than 10% either. When you consider most people don't need to sell it looks like you lot will have to up the dosh if you want to buy.

Let me ask you one very simple question.

Some people on here say you are an estate agent.

Is that true?

[The XYY Man]

The Spring bounce will last as long I would during a love in with Kelly Brook

Wise words my furious Bolton-resident friend.

Kelly wouldn't even have to get fully naked to turn my spring bounce into an autumnal doldrum, but seeing as easy credit is currently about as rare as a 2010 Jade Goody calendar, then any further discussion is futile...

XYY

[the flying pig]

there is no '"spring bounce" .

it only exists in the mind of a few wishful or paranoid thinkers.

the ENTIRE basis for it is the one month of halifax data, which is almost certainly plain wrong. everything else contradicts the idea that there even might be one.

Edited February 16, 2009 by the flying pig

[Nomadd]

there is no '"pring bounce" .

it only exists in the mind of a few wishful or paranoid thinkers.

the ENTIRE basis for it is the one month of halifax data, which is almost certainly plain wrong. everything else contradicts.

Nah, the jobs market and the economy will all be fixed by Spring. And we'll be looking back at those silly little problems that the Banks had with laughter. The only way is up, baby.

Nomadd

[Harry Monk]

the ENTIRE basis for it is the one month of halifax data, which is almost certainly plain wrong.

Hell, even the Halifax say it is wrong.

Edited February 16, 2009 by Harry Monk

[Bloo Loo]

House prices rise in Feb?

still got half the month to go!

[spline]

This is a weird sort a spring bounce.

We all know that the Rightmove asking price index is not seasonally adjusted, i.e. NSA, so what happens if we do a quick X12-ARIMA on it, say with a 4-year window, to see at what’s actually happening? The Rightmove SA comes out in the fifth column and the MoM-SA looks negative at around -0.6%, i.e. still falling...

Mon Year £-NSA adj-sa £-SA MoM-SA YoY

Jan 2007 222,859 2.4% 228,143 1.2% 13.5%

Feb 2007 224,802 1.2% 227,428 -0.3% 11.5%

Mar 2007 228,183 0.5% 229,237 0.8% 12.2%

Apr 2007 236,490 -1.0% 234,122 2.1% 15.0%

May 2007 237,361 -1.5% 233,721 -0.2% 13.1%

Jun 2007 239,317 -2.0% 234,581 0.4% 13.2%

Jul 2007 240,001 -2.2% 234,763 0.1% 10.3%

Aug 2007 241,474 -0.8% 239,595 2.1% 12.8%

Sep 2007 235,176 0.6% 236,475 -1.3% 9.6%

Oct 2007 241,642 -0.3% 240,816 1.8% 10.4%

Nov 2007 239,986 0.2% 240,489 -0.1% 7.9%

Dec 2007 232,396 1.9% 236,751 -1.6% 4.8%

Jan 2008 230,428 2.4% 235,958 -0.3% 3.4%

Feb 2008 237,865 0.5% 239,090 1.3% 5.8%

Mar 2008 239,655 -0.1% 239,521 0.2% 5.0%

Apr 2008 239,521 -1.2% 236,684 -1.2% 1.3%

May 2008 242,500 -1.8% 238,114 0.6% 2.2%

Jun 2008 239,564 -1.7% 235,598 -1.1% 0.1%

Jul 2008 235,219 -1.5% 231,765 -1.6% -2.0%

Aug 2008 229,816 -0.4% 228,990 -1.2% -4.8%

Sep 2008 227,438 0.6% 228,695 -0.1% -3.3%

Oct 2008 229,691 -0.3% 228,906 0.1% -4.9%

Nov 2008 222,979 0.2% 223,446 -2.4% -7.1%

Dec 2008 217,808 1.9% 221,889 -0.7% -6.3%

Jan 2009 213,570 2.4% 218,695 -1.4% -7.3%

Feb 2009 216,163 0.5% 217,277 -0.6% -9.1%

[workingnomad]

I believe we are at the bottom due to pent up demand, cash rich buyers with no alternative investment and lack of supply.

[Harry Monk]

I believe we are at the bottom due to pent up demand, cash rich buyers with no alternative investment and lack of supply.

Plus of course, all of those employers taking on new staff and begging for people to do overtime etc

[workingnomad]

Doesn't matter that people are being made redundant in terms of HPI, there are still plenty of wealthy folk and small companies who are going to snap up buy to lets etc

[REP013]

Doesn't matter that people are being made redundant in terms of HPI, there are still plenty of wealthy folk and small companies who are going to snap up buy to lets etc

?

Sorry for above ?, not very helpful!

Wealthy people, one would hope, are bright, yes?

Why would bright people buy something which is losing value daily?

Why would bright people buy something today reducing their buying power for something that will be cheaper tomorrow?

Or are these people not bright?

Edited February 16, 2009 by REP013

[Harry Monk]

Doesn't matter that people are being made redundant in terms of HPI, there are still plenty of wealthy folk and small companies who are going to snap up buy to lets etc

So you feel that BTL properties are holding their price?

[jonb]

I believe we are at the bottom due to pent up demand, cash rich buyers with no alternative investment and lack of supply.

No, the pent-up demand is the 39 out of 40 people who would like to buy a house but don't have the money. They will provide support at the levels of money they do have, which is clearly a lot lower than the current market level.

Edited February 16, 2009 by jonb

[endofcrash2]

No, the pent-up demand is the 39 out of 40 people who would like to buy a house but don't have the money. They will provide support at the levels of money they do have, which is clearly a lot lower than the current market level.

As the market stablises (which it seems to be) then the banks / building societies will ease their lending criteria so allowing most of the 39 out of 40 people to buy. This in turn will have the effect of supporting / increasing the price of houses.

[GrillsBears]

As the market stablises (which it seems to be) then the banks / building societies will ease their lending criteria so allowing most of the 39 out of 40 people to buy. This in turn will have the effect of supporting / increasing the price of houses.

Er no they won't the 39 people they lent money to last year are already 20% down and have spent all the bank's money.

[Dopamine]

As the market stablises (which it seems to be) then the banks / building societies will ease their lending criteria so allowing most of the 39 out of 40 people to buy. This in turn will have the effect of supporting / increasing the price of houses.

God help you if you are happy to pronounce on any market (and presumably make financial decisions) on the basis of one month's contrary data, in the face of such an established trend.

You will either end up a millionaire on the basis of pure luck from your rash decision making, or, as is most likely, totally broke.

[TylerDurden]

As the market stablises (which it seems to be) then the banks / building societies will ease their lending criteria so allowing most of the 39 out of 40 people to buy. This in turn will have the effect of supporting / increasing the price of houses.

Hate to say it. I think its allready happening. 2 of my friends have bought houses in last fortnight.

couple 1: buying 3 bed, lovely house in cardiff. both earn under 30k, seem to have borrowed most of the 20% deposit from parents. house purchase of 168k. got a mortgage no probs

couple 2: buying a 2 bed, house in caerphilly, outskirts of cardiff. he's self employed with only 2 years books, the said they couldnt take any more than 5k!!! into account from him. She's in a fairly well paid 28k job, but pregnant! borrowed all of there 15% deposit from parents buying a house price was 109k. also got a mortgage no probs, in fact, got a better deal than couple 1.

i think this goes to show that people are getting mortgages now. you may need a few k in the bank, but they dont care where its come from.

i hope the banks arent just lending again as they know the government will keep bailing them out? im not sure whats happening, but i was getting into the crash, i hope thats not all were going to see?

[Valerius]

Hate to say it. I think its allready happening. 2 of my friends have bought houses in last fortnight.

couple 1: buying 3 bed, lovely house in cardiff. both earn under 30k, seem to have borrowed most of the 20% deposit from parents. house purchase of 168k. got a mortgage no probs

couple 2: buying a 2 bed, house in caerphilly, outskirts of cardiff. he's self employed with only 2 years books, the said they couldnt take any more than 5k!!! into account from him. She's in a fairly well paid 28k job, but pregnant! borrowed all of there 15% deposit from parents buying a house price was 109k. also got a mortgage no probs, in fact, got a better deal than couple 1.

i think this goes to show that people are getting mortgages now. you may need a few k in the bank, but they dont care where its come from.

i hope the banks arent just lending again as they know the government will keep bailing them out? im not sure whats happening, but i was getting into the crash, i hope thats not all were going to see?

There are many signals already confirming the above.

As usual, all sort of economic therories and wikipedia copy/paste stuff from the usual suspects will try and prove the opposite.

[mirage]

This is a weird sort a spring bounce.

We all know that the Rightmove asking price index is not seasonally adjusted, i.e. NSA, so what happens if we do a quick X12-ARIMA on it, say with a 4-year window, to see at what’s actually happening? The Rightmove SA comes out in the fifth column and the MoM-SA looks negative at around -0.6%, i.e. still falling...

........

Oct 2008 229,691 -0.3% 228,906 0.1% -4.9%

Nov 2008 222,979 0.2% 223,446 -2.4% -7.1%

Dec 2008 217,808 1.9% 221,889 -0.7% -6.3%

Jan 2009 213,570 2.4% 218,695 -1.4% -7.3%

Feb 2009 216,163 0.5% 217,277 -0.6% -9.1%[/font]

Quality, thanks. It's nice to have someone around who can whip out a quick X12-ARIMA! And nice to have the ******er working for us rather than against us for a change!

[happy_renting]

Quality, thanks. It's nice to have someone around who can whip out a quick X12-ARIMA! And nice to have the ******er working for us rather than against us for a change!

More to the point, asking prices mean **** all. You might as well publish an index of offered prices which would tell a very different story.

All that counts is actual prices, on completed sales.

Any asking price index is a denial metric at the moment.

[0q0]

The spring bounce is here and it's upwards and onwards from there.

Stop it young Sibley, you made me laugh so much I spilled my tea all over the keyboard, please post a warning at the start of a post (maybe a /\ or some such) that you're doing one of your classic wind-up posts because I'm running out of milk with wasted teas!

[joey]

Speaking with a number of Estate Agents people are looking some for more than a year and looking for the bargains only. Asking Prices beiing unrealistic unlike like last crash early 90s when people were offering 5% to 10% below asking price the norm appears to be 20% to 30% as sellers are still trying hold onto unrealistic 2007 prices. The following reasons for not going ahead with property purchases

1) Uk economy crashing , job insecurity

2) Property prices to fall even more with explosion of job losses

3) Can't get a loan

[porca misèria]

The bubble in house prices meant that a lot of buyers bought much earlier than they would otherwise have done. Buying was brought forward to take advantage of the easy money to be made and the fear of being priced out forever.

The market is now left with the very poorest quality would be buyers. Poor credit histories, low pay, insecure work etc. People like this cannot provide the heavy lifting needed to rescue this doomed market.

Erm, YM like me, who ran away from buying into the bubble, and now have a perfect credit history, £90k deposit, ... ?

Some of us FTBs are in the same market as lower-end STRs, and all the better for not having taken Northern Rock's money in 2005.

[Soldup&movedBKK]

Just did a mortgage search on money supermarket......more or less impossible to get a mortgage and then rates are ridiculously high.....houses have got a long long way to fall yet....