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Dopamine

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Everything posted by Dopamine

  1. I've said it before, but I think that BOE will QE2 and the govt will legislate to force the state controlled banks to provide mortgages at 90% LTV at very low premiums over base rate (e.g 90% LTV on tracker rate of 1.5%), rather than allow a huge crash. Of course, this will just limit the extent of the fall rather than prevent it, and even then may not work, but does anyone believe they won't try to pump the market up again if it does look like falling massively?! Falls around here are mainly happening in first time buyer and less desirable areas where buyers don't have a large equity cushion or deposit to put into the deal. Areas where people can get low tracker rates (higher value properties where buyers have big deposits, in good catchment areas), are falling at a slower pace. I think that the above is why we'll see a maximum 15% off from current prices, nominal, rather than a full on 40-60% collapse. Anyone have an argument why this won't happen or is unlikely to happen?
  2. They will definitely QE and may even go as far as to legislate to force banks to lend money gained from QE based asset sales as residential mortgages, with a 10% deposit, at a low margin over base rate. Mortgages for FTBs at, say, 1.5% will be adequate support. Won't stop prices falling at least 10% more though, in my opinion. It's crazy, of course, and inflationary, but that's what they want.
  3. I bought last year at around 15-20% under peak, shortly after which prices went back to peak. I got sick of renting and given how long the 'dead cat bounce' played out for it was the right decision for me. Where I am, there's no sign of another crash - things are a bit slower, yes, but good quality family houses are selling after a couple of months, at around peak price. I hope they do crash again for my kids' sakes, but after experiencing how hard it was to negotiate a decent reduction in the last crash (2007-2009), I don't hold out much hope for anything more than 10-15% below the 2009 bottom nominally, with perhaps inflation taking more off, but over a longer period.
  4. My severely learning disabled brother would notice if the people who look after him are cut. What fatuous, reactionary, nonsense.
  5. Did you want more than 20%? I made my plans based on this being the mid range of a crash i.e 10-30%. I never thought more than this was likely except perhaps for the odd month or two during those heady days of 2008. As it was I bought back in at this point. In retrospect I'm quite shocked at how much I gambled on the whole thing - it could've easily turned out worse for me. Hope you find somewhere you like - STR is not a nice place to be in my experience.
  6. How unbelievably facile. Next time you're being patched up in A and E, or having your bins cleared, or dropping your child off to school,or one of your loved ones, I dare you to tell the person serving you to 'get a real job'. This place gets more and more loony right every day. Where have all the sensible, thoughtful rightwing posters gone?
  7. I'm already a debt slave with my 3x salary mortgage.
  8. I concur as well, although I've explained it as habituation to a higher price level. A simple behavioural law. In fact, the brief period of falling prices has probably encouraged this - reminiscent of how easy it has been for people to once again pay 2007 prices (or higher) for property.
  9. I'm in same boat- drive around in a 3 year old vauxhall (paid for), on a very good salary yet still struggle to have the holidays and lifestyle that others around me seem to achieve on lower incomes. Save max £500 a month and this is a struggle with high fuel, food, car costs etc.
  10. Dopamine

    Cardiff Prices

    Welcome, and well done on obviously making such a success of your business.
  11. Dopamine

    Cardiff Prices

    Bridgend has a lot of problems and has a complete absence of any cultural life (i.e. it's pretty soulless). I doubt many people actively choose to live there - it's a compromise town for those who can't afford cardiff/the vale.
  12. I would need more if I didn't have a house as my rent would be even higher than the mortgage. My costs are made up of food, fuel,car upkeep, insurance, utilities, and the ongoing costs of children's clothes, shoes, activities.
  13. It depends on your perspective. With a family to support and a house to run, 20K is not a lot of money. Tangibles are cheaper than they've ever been, but the cost of living is extortionate in the UK. We get through 20K in 6 months.
  14. It surprised most people on here. It has never happened before like this in a UK property correction.
  15. Bonnie Greer loves to disapprove. I suspect she makes a lot of people she comes into contact with feel about 5.
  16. So you think we didn't have a crash, and that prices haven't gone back up? The government didn't 'keep them up', prices weren't just supported; they rose from a trough. When is a dead cat bounce the resumption of an upward trend and when is it a blip in a crash? Prices crashed, the crash ended (they rose 12m on 12m) and IMO they will fall again. This 'dead cat bounce' that has now lasted over a year will last a few more months - it doesn't make sense to compare it to a dead cat bounce in other asset markets, where liquidity is so much greater and brief countertrends in an overall downward trend happen all the time. The drivers for the next crash will be different from that of the last (in all likelihood, rising IRs in 2011-2012 rather than sudden credit tightening in 2007-2009). Prices may yet break the 2009 low, but not for quite a while IMO.
  17. We've had a house price crash - it just wasn't as big as many here were anticipating (including me). People are now waiting for the next one.
  18. I'm a lefty. My tax bill is very high. I'd be happy to pay a little more if it resulted in better services, but this government has failed to make the public sector sufficiently accountable. Also, the unions are not truly socialist- they are vested interests disguised as collectivists and are mostly run by politically ignorant thick people.
  19. How long before I see the phrase 'useless eaters' written on this forum?
  20. good parts of cardiff are short on family sized rentals as well - although this may change if prices start falling again as we now have a clear precedent that people in these areas won't put their houses up for sale at low prices (observed in 2007-2009). They rent them out instead. This of course eventually pushes prices back up. Forced selling, on the the other hand will be a different story if it comes. Both rents and prices would fall. I personally wouldn't STR now unless I could get 2007 price for my house. The downside won't be big and/or fast enough to merit the risks IMO. Of course, if I had all the time in the world and I was brave enough to take preemptive action to minimise currency risk, it might be a different story. I speak from experience. While I 'saved money' with my STR strategy, it was stressful and dragged on for longer than I'd have liked. Rental just wasn't for me as my family tend to break / damage things with dependable regularity and worrying about that all the time got on my nerves.
  21. Indeed, neutral rate is probably lower now than it was 3 years ago - in the range 2.5-3.5% as opposed to 4.5-5.5%
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