Realistbear Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 (edited) Bloomberg about 30 minutes ago. Sorry no link. Points in summary: 1. Ali's confession over the weekend was orchestrated by Brown. 2. The statement was designed to deceive (my word) the public into thinking it was a honest assesment to allow Brown to announce the breaking of all the fiscal rules related to deficits and government spending. 3. The real problem is not the housing market but the banks withdrawing margin (collapsing fractional banking system???). 4. The result will be massive DEflation with the trend in commodity prices picking up to the downside. 5. Gold prices will collapse. Oil will be sub $90 due to falling world demand and hidden overcapacity--especially in relation to Chines reserves. 6. The $ is doing well because Bernanke has a handle on the problem and can afford 2% IR and massive intervention. The sneeze:cold anaology remains in force. 7. Brown is out to save his poltical skin. It was a very interesting program. Edited September 2, 2008 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redgenieuk Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 = Its all a big f*&king mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olebrum Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 = Its all a big f*&king mess. Yes, but, the fundamentals are good!. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weedrea Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Not sure about you, but I have a worrying feeling in the pit of my stomach today. How many more crazy schemes are we going to have to go through before either the Labour Party or (even better) the people say enough is enough? The game is up, there's nothing that GB or his cronies can do....but here we are again talking of p*ssing more money up the wall so that GB can look good. Does he not realise that if he gave everyone in the country £10k....he'd still not be popular enough to win the next election?!?! The Labour Party need to get real and get rid... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Not sure about you, but I have a worrying feeling in the pit of my stomach today. How many more crazy schemes are we going to have to go through before either the Labour Party or (even better) the people say enough is enough? The game is up, there's nothing that GB or his cronies can do....but here we are again talking of p*ssing more money up the wall so that GB can look good. Does he not realise that if he gave everyone in the country £10k....he'd still not be popular enough to win the next election?!?! The Labour Party need to get real and get rid... Zimbabwe's hyper inflation was started by giving the war veterans a lump cash sum at the same time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidhpc Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 watching another bit of the recent interview with darling here http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7589737.stm this looked like a scared, tired man forced by gordenron to go on TV and put right his words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weedrea Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Zimbabwe's hyper inflation was started by giving the war veterans a lump cash sum at the same time. ...maybe I shouldn't be giving the Labour Party any ideas..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carbonoid Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 oil is never going below a $100/brl again. ever. IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_austrian Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 2. The statement was designed to deceive (my word) the public into thinking it was a honest assesment to allow Brown to announce the breaking of all the fiscal rules related to deficits and government spending. When money is made out of paper it's easier to make new ones than earn those existing in circulation. Why Taxes Don't Matter Much Anymore: http://www.mises.org/story/3093 I'm really not sure I understand all this tax talk. The government taxes us to get money to do what it wants to do. But it seems like what they do — whether going to war or funding new projects — is never discussed in terms of money they have or don't have. I mean, Bush cut taxes, right? And the reduced revenue should have restrained him. But he spends on whatever he wants. The tax cuts didn't seem to reduce his power at all. Why is this? The answer here comes down to the monetary regime, a topic that causes eyes to glaze over but which is central to why the government seems completely out of control. It is not difficult to understand if we think of how a criminal with a counterfeiting machine might behave. Would we see fiscal restraint? Of course not. If a person could create all the money he needs or wants with a printing press, we would expect unlimited profligacy. This is precisely what the Federal Reserve does. It not only acts as the guarantor of the liquidity of the banking system but also functions as the guarantor of the entire government financial system. With sound money and no central bank, the debate over our country's future would take on new meaning. Politicians would feel the constraint — the same as all individuals. It would be a more peaceful world, surely, with far less political meddling at home and abroad. And we might actually start taking public affairs seriously again. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...since-1992.html The cuts are not merely embarrassing, but will also have a profound impact on the public finances, since weaker growth implies that the Government's deficit will also be greater. It implies that the Treasury may have to borrow around £50 billion next year, making it almost inevitable that Mr Darling will have to loosen his fiscal rules. http://tutor2u.net/economics/revision-note...-borrowing.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moo Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 oil is never going below a $100/brl again. ever. IMO. It got within a pint of lager of $100 a barrel earlier this morning. Never say never Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no accountant Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 How many more crazy schemes are we going to have to go through before either the Labour Party or (even better) the people say enough is enough? The Labour Party need to get real and get rid... It the worst feeling isn’t it. The people that work hard (and smart) to earn money and save prudently, and don’t buy things they can’t afford, get their cash taken from them by force, to support the reckless and feckless. And all to save the career of a Marxist historian. The only bright spot to think about is that he’ll be out of a job in a year and a bit, and he won’t get any money for after-dinner speeches – “how I ruined the UK economy”? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliveandkicking Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 oil is never going below a $100/brl again. ever. IMO. Dont bet on that one. $100 is like a massive magnet now. It went to 140 plus for reasons related almost certainly to "unusual financial factors" But we are now facing the worst depressionary scenario in my lifetime and less oil will be consumed as a mathematical certainty. Meanwhile the USA is a massive oil producing nation and massive consuming nation. Have you heard of economy? I was looking at houses with oil fired central heating and just went around in disbelief that i would be heating a house with oil fired central heating. There is plenty of wood about and a thing called a woolly jumper and extra blankets when faced with a bill of thousands of Euros to heat a house and **whatever my heat loving partner says about it is irrelevant**. People will economise. End of story. $50 is entirely possible. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...lde-915843.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 It the worst feeling isn’t it. The people that work hard (and smart) to earn money and save prudently, and don’t buy things they can’t afford, get their cash taken from them by force, to support the reckless and feckless. And all to save the career of a Marxist historian. All historians are Marxist now. Are you saying Gordon's a Marxist historian? Where does it say that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Bart' Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Gold prices will collapse. That's a buy gold signal if ever I saw one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLDFTB Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Zimbabwe's hyper inflation was started by giving the war veterans a lump cash sum at the same time. A nice example of giving somebody a big pile of money then quickly ensuring that it's worthless. Well done Mr Mugabe. Gorgon could learn a lot from him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdman Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 I don't understand. Are Bloomberg suggesting the interview was preparing the ground for Brown to break rules on borrowing? Or to disguise that deflation is happening? The announcement has sent sterling into freefall and vapourised confidence. This is far more damaging both politically and also to the economy than breaking some arbitrary rule about borrowing. So if Brown co-ordinated this with Darling, he's shot himself in the foot. OTOH, is the purpose was to disguise deflation, surely dredging up the distant past (even if the GD started closer to 80 than 60 years) will do the precise opposite As this plays out, my feeling is the two at the top are genuinely clueless. Darling has no idea that his pronouncements influence the market and it is in his job description to make such interventions for the benefit of the economy. It's ****-up, and if there is a conspiracy, it's about ousting Brown not gaining some kind of political advantage over the opposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Coma Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Are you saying Gordon's a Marxist historian? Where does it say that? Apparently Brown's Ph.D. was a hagiography of some Scots communist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoami Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 (edited) The only bright spot to think about is that he’ll be out of a job in a year and a bit, and he won’t get any money for after-dinner speeches – “how I ruined the UK economy”? Nope, Dennis Healey's got that market sewn up. Edited September 2, 2008 by whoami Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quantinghome Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Nope, Dennis Healey's got that market sewn up. Nah, it was the Treasury wot dun it. The IMF loan was never actually needed - the Treasury's statistics were faulty and the government had about £5billion more than it thought. No IMF loan would have meant less spending cuts. The winter of discontent would probably never have happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downandout Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 oil is never going below a $100/brl again. ever. IMO. It will. Just long enough for everyone to decide that alternative energy sources aren't necessary after all, then.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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