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Everything posted by aliveandkicking

  1. The tax payer could come out of this doing well if inflation is maintained, nominal prices are stabilised inside a few years and losses are kept within historic norms etc etc. I suppose it depends on how negative you are about the future as to what losses and defaults you expect to see. I also dont see a benefitial outcome for young people created by falling house prices large losses in employment and so forth since once the bottom is reached, many young people will be unable to buy anyway. The people who will benefit from that kind of deflation are the cashed up richer folks who made a pile earlier on and then sold to rent and so forth. These are the people who need to be scared into spending money to keep velocity reasonable. I dont know about you but although i am in two minds and dont know the future and can see all manner of scenarios, the inflationary one does sort of scare me and i find it hard to believe my pile of cash is going to get more and more valueable. It just cannot possibly be part of the plan for that to happen.
  2. But he is also saying there is no risk the UK banks can fail and create losses for anybody. Which could well be true if the whole thing is managed well. And part of the management plan is to ensure that the UK continues to be able to borrow at reasonable rates. Vince in opposition seems to be saying that Britain PLC is in good shape and has no chance of failing. He is also saying that it is fine by him if the government spends away to avoid deflation - which is the BOE objective. Seems to me like he is on board and up to speed. The dissapointment might be none of the above is deflationary.
  3. Injin you seem to enjoying hurting people with your dishonest distortions of reality. I dont see i have anything to apologise about. For sure none is going to come while you behave in such a manipulative manner towards people. For the record since we dont have much to do with each other i am no longer waiting for that bus.
  4. Funny how idiots like you like to make out that insulting a person means absolutely nothing. Are you really so lacking in awareness or do you just behave that way I actually dont think you are such an idiot. I think it is more calculated than that and just some form of sadistic fun at another persons expense because you imagine nobody can do anything about it.
  5. When your habit is to treat people who dont agree with you as being delusional or defending some losing position, then courtious is the last word i would use about you. Obnoxious fits better. I try to be accurate about things as best i can
  6. It is not only a virtual world. Perhaps that is why you can be so obnoxious? You dont seem to realise the reality involved.
  7. When people talk about hyperinflation involving cookies costing 6.09 one month before their predicted hyperinflationary event with no mention of their predicted money supply figure and then use graphs of money supply to show they are right when money supply has not changed much in the last month and the price is still 6.09 then we can see that most people use these terms in an interchangeable and confusing manner most of the time and often it suits them to do so. Evidently this is not only done by central banking groups when even individuals can be evasive manipulating and dishonest. Because we are all doing this it makes sense to define what we mean when we use these terms which have very ambiguous meanings. Obviously Friedman at least did not say that inflation was an increase in the money supply only. He just said there was a close linkage and it was wrong to say that high oil prices or wage increases were causing inflation. Obviously he separated out inflation of the money supply and inflation in prices while also using the word inflation without saying what he was referring to - while making it clear there was a relationship..
  8. Funny how you can use a foolish definition of inflation where large amounts of unspent money is sitting in bank accounts to say this is the correct definition of inflation as if anybody pointing out the obvious absurdity needs to go back to school and be taught by you. Obviously any teacher who tells us that inflation is always and everwhere a monetary event and does not also realise that unspent money creates zero inflation needs to be removed from their pedestal asap. For the record i dont think Friedman was quite so stupid to use that one line in total isolation to every thing else he believed to be true. What we can probably say is true is that when inflation is occuring it is always and everwhere a monetary event.
  9. Funny how you can claim it is a misunderstanding while denying you can remember it. But this is not really personal between you and me. What it is about is that you have this habit of thinking you know the absolute truth and when people dont agree with you then you attack them like they are fools or work for the enemy and then when others like Hotairmail believe your version of events you then talk publicly about your innocence and integrity and bewilderment that what is happening is happening. And now you want me to just forget what you are capable of and make out we are friends. I am at this stage not sure if you really are just so confused and forgetful or if is just part of the psychopathic kind of manipulation that you might be capable of
  10. How about you set the record straight rather than taking the blame for something you appear to be blaming on me.
  11. Why do you keep refering to the private post i made to you that asked you if you could let me know more about something you had publicly said about bonds? And where later you had publicly misrepresented what i had said to you when i approached you for that bond information so that i then publicly reproduced this private post to you to set the record straight? And now in some manner you are doing exactly the same thing by bringing up the whole conversation again in this distorted manner where you want me to be seen in a negative light to make you appear in a more favourable one? Why are you suggesting i did something improper?? Had you not replied to my post there would have been no further emails perhaps? As it happens I recall you wanted to tell me how much you knew and how wrong i was to not agree with you. The conversation did not go very far as i recall because we did not agree. But later as i recall it, I got the treatment about how i had some vested interest in bonds, you were obviously right and anybody could see what i was doing. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1915905 And Hotairmail joined in at that point http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1915957 To which you twisted reality by replying http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1915959 I dont have any financial interest in bonds. And you just made the same kind of attack on this other person about his interest in sterling which appears at least to be unjustifiable However i am quite happy to be friendly if people want to be friendly with me.
  12. If you could avoid creating fantasies about people like me, then I for one might see you in a more favourable light.
  13. Bizarre how the patient can destroy conversations with the no groups nonesense and when asked if he is in the groups who get it he says yes and sees no contradiction. We see a group of disconnected people who get it. He argues there is no group of people who are consciously connected or physically linked together. But we see a group and he says there is no group but he is in a group It appears we are not allowed to organise individuals into like groups and say this is a group of like minded people. Only a single mass or single item which is bonded together or melted down together or inside the biggest item can ever be a group. And the patients law requires that atoms cannot be in groups called molecules because there is nothing special about the random atoms forming the group of atoms in that water drop. It is as if the patients brain has a part missing.
  14. If you are owed 100 and have security of 80 the loan asset that is defaulting that is tied to the security of 80 has value of 80.
  15. A debtors willingness and ability to repay their debt obviously has some theoretical value to a person expecting to receive that repayment. In the old days taking security was one way to ensure that the debtor was serious about repaying the debt. the other way to ensure a person repaid was to ensure that loans were only given to people who had the kind of character that meant they were likely to repay the debt. Seems to me to be idiotic to say that a debtors liabilities are not a financial asset of some meaningful amount or probability
  16. Currently CML data suggest lending activity to be at 2000-2001 levels? Interest rates are incredibly low. A minor recovery will mean a minor recovery in interest rates upwards. Yes we are seeing that already but what will happen to all these people on SVR as the rates trundle higher? Mew probably fed the consumer economy that fed the legitimate applications for property and a chunk of the other applications were liar loans. The consumer psychology of living off house price gains is still intact for many but it cannot create a meaningful recovery while the rest of the world is also simultaneously struggling. 'W' comes to mind at the moment. Already these articles from CML and other industry groups are more or less saying 'hey! nothing much is going to happen for a while yet - the fundamentals of lending are getting worse still. Dont even count on a written mortgage advance agreement unless you examine the small print - most can be pulled at the last moment and were only there to attract better customers but the rest will be weeded out once completion looks likely - you face ruin if you exchange contracts before ensuring finance is available beyond what you would have been required to do in recent years' Does that sound positive to you?? Over in the USA i saw today the case of a repossessed house receiving 61 offers from over 50 different buyers because the price was so low. in the end the lender took a cheap cash offer because the money was there and ready to go rather than offers almost 100,000 higher. What does that suggest to you??
  17. Hamish you seem to be the one glossing over the remortgage figures. If fewer are remortgaging it means less money gets released into the economy to support consumer spending. It means fewer jobs and less mechanism to support a service based econonomy that relies on this *income* from property leaking out into the economy. You make some good points and i agree alot of what is said on boards like this can be rubbish but these CML figures dont look good to me. Year 2000 119,798 2001 160,123 2002 220,734 2003 277,338 2004 291,221 2005 287,921 2006 345,332 2007 363,538 2008 259,649 Quarter 2006 Q1 74,024 Q2 85,931 Q3 92,996 Q4 92,371 2007 Q1 83,844 Q2 93,846 Q3 98,631 Q4 87,217 2008 Q1 75,182 Q2 74,893 Q3 62,500 Q4 47,074 2009 Q1 33,294 Month 2008 May 24,696 Jun 23,843 Jul 24,945 Aug 19,868 Sep 17,687 Oct 19,046 Nov 14,342 Dec 13,686 2009 Jan 11,798 Feb 10,004 Mar 11,492 Apr 10,528 Mayest 10,300 I am not sure who publishes this magazine but there take on the data is not good either http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgage...ending_down.htm
  18. Fantastic news for Sweden http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-saab...0,2337254.story http://european-sports-cars.suite101.com/a...lds_fastest_car Christian von Koenigsegg has made the world’s fastest sports car that can be driven on ordinary roads.
  19. Seems this guy bought property in Eastern Germany expecting magical things to happen and it did not, and some of his mortgages were provided by Bear Stearns. Seems like a total disaster but he only started in 2003!! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=atQ...mp;pid=20601109 The 1.5 billion-euro insolvency is the largest in German real estate history The Austrian says he wants to clear his name and return to investing in real estate. “German real estate looks extremely interesting,†he said. “That’s why I have to fight to show that the wrongdoing was all on the other side. I know I’m right.â€
  20. True. Something odd is happening or the fall is delayed. One thing to observe is that NZ is no longer the community it once was where for example people would get together at the local club to fix things and improve the surroundings. An accountant friend suggested to me that instead of wages being based around a common equal amount more or less as it was say in the 1970's now there are higher earners as a group and then there is the poor as a group. So possibly the poor group are renters and the richer group are owners rather than their being a large middle group owning houses as there was a few decades ago. Average income then does not mean what it might mean? This trend is then further distorted by the rich having rental properties which the poor get state benefits to live in.
  21. An insulating factor for Australia NZ and even China is the fact that interest rates were pretty high before this crisis really got going. Importantly China was fairly seriously fighting massive inflationary pressures prior to September 16th. China had rates of 7.47% and bank reserve requirements at a record high level of 17.5% until Sept 16th 2008 *************ind...st&p=448980 NZ had rates at 8.25% http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1625734 Australian Rates were at 7% in september from 7.25% in march 2008. http://www.news.com.au/business/money/stor...5016110,00.html
  22. Falling house prices......Falling rents.....rising unemployment.....firms going bust.....houses being repossessed.......individual bankruptcies. Meanwhile internationrocksuperstar has unlimited faith in governements ability to spend their way out of this mess so that inflation is 100% gauranteed, everybody losing money is saved and any doubters of the governments genius are retarded. I wonder what the recovereh will look like in about 10 years of such lunacy? Who will be producing anything? Or will everybody be buying gold and eating that?
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