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quantinghome

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About quantinghome

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  1. Well it's finally happened. After 10 years renting we've sold out and bought a place. The timing is mainly due to our dropping another sprog in a few months, and the fact that renting is no longer a particularly attractive option. With the deposit we've saved up over the years we're in a position where our mortgage interest is appreciably lower than the rent. The market round here (NW Leeds) has some way still to fall I believe, judging from P-E ratios. Ex-council houses are seeing quite major falls, however in general houses with asking prices set a little more keenly are going fairly quickl
  2. Watched this today as I'm ill. Made me determined to get better as soon as possible. I liked the ending - they've tripled viewings!!!! but no mention of it being sold...
  3. Can't see any reason for 62,000 having much significance. Approvals were running at around 80,000 to 100,000 when prices started falling. One would expect similar levels of approvals for them to start increasing again. In addition falling prices have an obvious negative effect on sentiment, so you may need higher approval levels just to get back to zero growth. Of course none of us knows the future, and if a recovery does come later this year, this will be seen as the start. However, it's hard to envisage where the recovery is going to come from. Unemployment is only just getting going, overa
  4. I used to be suspicious of seasonal adjustments, but after some research I found Nationwide, HBOS and BoE stats are all adjusted using pretty sensible methods. I do my own seasonal adjustment for the house prices stats and they follow the official numbers closely enough. Mortgage approvals have a very strong seasonal trend, so seasonal adjustment is important. It also takes account of the number of working days in a given month, which is why the adjustment for each month can vary from year to year.
  5. Absolutely! We need to be consistent. I keep track of the major data sources and put them together on a graph. To avoid doubts about the bank's SA methods I use my own SA calculation, but generally I don't have a problem with the banks' SA data. Forecasting the bottom is a tricky business. The last trough was very flat, so difficult to predict when the turnaround was going to happen. Mortgage approvals numbers are a good predictor up to 6 months ahead - any further ahead is difficult. Anyway, I'm not looking for the absolute bottom. I will start serious house-hunting when affordability return
  6. All the data sources will have random noise in them. All that's needed is to look at the trend, rather than one month in isolation.
  7. Exactly, which is why the SA increases the drop. There do seem to be far fewer complaints about seasonal adjustment when it's in our favour.
  8. Who knows? Jan-Apr 2008 were reasonably constant, then look what happened.
  9. NSA -0.4%. It's a good job that we HPCers prefer the seasonally-adjusted figures...
  10. Only when the data's not telling you what you want to hear. Otherwise it's just fine
  11. These are approvals, not prices. Approvals are highly seasonal, much more so than prices, so you need to do a seasonal adjustment to get the true picture. Also they need to adjust for the number of working days in a month, which varies month to month, and year by year for the same month. I hope that makes sense....
  12. My monthly HPI stats only go back to '83; the BoE quarterly approvals data only to '87. I could interpolate the quarterly HPI stats I have for the 70s, but not right now I'm afraid!
  13. Year on year HPI tends to follow 6 months behind mortgage approvals data. I divide the BOE approvals data by total stock which gives a slightly better long term picture - as stock increases, you'd expect the average number of house sales to increase as well. I also use two other factors: 1. the affordability ratio - nationwide average house price / average wage 2. the average house price growth (or decline) over the past 30 months as a measure of future expectation. I then use multipliers on each of the three stats and add them together. Then I cheat and use Excel's solver function to ach
  14. I said on a previous thread I'd get my crash progress charts updated. A bit later than planned, here they are: Nominal price fall from peak: Given that last time round (1989-1995), there was (much) higher inflation, the nominal falls are much greater. However, once adjusted for inflation the Nationwide falls are rather similar. Halifax is different - last time the falls were more gradual, although the eventual drop was similar to Nationwide. The forward prediction on this graph is based on mortgage approvals correlation, with a bit of affordability and future price expectation thrown in
  15. I'm not wanting to trivialise the past. On the contrary, I look at the terrible times we've gone through as a country in order to give current events some context. I think we are in danger of overstating how bad things are at the moment.
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