Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[shortbread]

19 hours ago, jimmy2x3 said:

 

aberdeen will go the same way if i owned a house there i would take any offer that came my way becuase the price is going to be half in 10 years town, id love for someone to tell me it will be different, it wont. another place thats in for the big shock is inverness, lots there work in the oil industry too, and inverness has had probably the biggest housing boom in all of the uk, for many years it has been the uks fastest growing city, the whole eonomy has been based near on building more and more houses, the city has doubled in size in 20 years feeding on its own expansion. they have tourism though and inverness is also the hub for the largest council area in the uk stretching over half the area of scotland. so i can see inverness being ok in the long run. but aberdeen needs to find a reason to exist and soon 

The issue is when a certain sector/industry is dominant, people fail to think outside the box. Aberdeen is still clinching in hope of a major O&G resurgence and any news is celebration worthy at this point! The majors are offloading assets and will most likely continue to do so into the future. Nothing else matters to this city until the inevitable hits people on the head one day.

2018, It will be interesting to see where oil prices go from here. 2017 saw multiple outages including Libya, Iraq, Canada, North Sea and the biggest one in the US. This was followed by a harsher winter in US/Canada and bigger fuel draws. It will be interesting to see how 2018 pans out. There will be no stopping the surging US production especially with Trump removing roadblocks for american drillers, but opec/Russia will be the one to watch, how patient will they be in curbing production to maintain price? Supply will continue to rise from Brazil and Canada, plus even Russia is thinking about shale. Theres a lot of bullish hedging on oil atm, but I predict a correction in the coming months post winter.

Another year of subdued prices will not do the Aberdeen O&G sector any favours.

The biggest developments in the local property market will be the continued build-up of inventory and the falling rents. Sellers will hold on in hope while prices will keep inching lower. The saving grace will continue to be the low interest rates.

[EME]

Great post CGS, don't disagree with any of that.

There are certainly many more positive signs than negative for the Aberdeen market in 2018

The real proof that the Aberdeen market is  recovering will be when this thread goes quiet for many months as it has in the past.

[Diver Dan]

I don't think anybody would be so unwise

1 hour ago, EME said:

Great post CGS, don't disagree with any of that.

There are certainly many more positive signs than negative for the Aberdeen market in 2018

The real proof that the Aberdeen market is  recovering will be when this thread goes quiet for many months as it has in the past.

You appear to conflate the "Aberdeen [housing] market" with the wider economy.

Even if there is an improvement in the oil industry, be it a mild uptick or a massive price boom, it does not follow necessarily that house prices will rise due to many factors external to Aberdeen: MMR; S24; expected interest rate rises etc. which in my opinion are more likely to affect house prices in the city and region than a few day-rate guys finding they'll get a bit more money for working in an office in Kingswells than one in Westhill.

[Haddie]

Chuckle, chuckle.?not someone  on the same page as me?

Just to remind ,,AWPR is going to start kicking in soon,cheaper options for 200k buyers.I think that the housebuilders are going to review there trade in values(again).

Happy New Year to all............

 

 

[CGS]

Iran has many people worried ref. uprising type activity with oil hitting an intra-day $67 p.b - massive storms in the US causing a surge in gas prices. Bet the Saudi's are watching the Iran situation with great interest....Shortbread made a nice inference on this very topic above. Libya suffered some more major outages over the festive period. 2018 will be intriguing. 

Interest rates - unless we have a massive inflation issue or some extensive economic growth they'll surely crawl upwards at a glacial pace. Suppose it's anyone's guess. Brexit will trigger most of the swings I suppose ?? They may be a Corbyn effect too if his popularity continues..

Ref. new car sales - seemingly the cost of materials/exchange rates etc is meaning the discounts offered in the past have come down massively. A discount on a new car of 15% in 2016 will now look more like 5% in 2018. Gleaned this recently from a dealer. Used cars sales are going pretty well with many reviewing their outgoings and downsizing. Obvious really

This is worth a glance.....

https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2017/press-release-uoc-report-2016/

Dan has made a great point ref. S24 and landlord influences. Not quite sure what MMR is ?

[ccc]

On 08/12/2017 at 12:22 AM, shortbread said:

This is a new one

poor chappie...

Just read that. Had a laugh. 

Took cocaine to cope with stress 

If he had been caught dealing weed he may have got away with that as an excuse.

[maffo in oxford]

22 minutes ago, CGS said:

Not quite sure what MMR is ?

Mortgage market review :  https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/guides/mortgage-market-review/

[regprentice]

1 hour ago, CGS said:

Not quite sure what MMR is ?

MMR is very interesting. Like s24 it is a slow burn change that will slowly impact people over time as opposed to havibg a 'big bang' effect. It came in 3 years ago and is effectively a tightening of the credit criteria used by banks and building societies to assess mortgage affordability. It affects people looking for a first mortgage, people moving mortgages from one bank to another but it doesnt nescesarily impact people remortgaging with their existing bank.

I read a very interesting example on MSE forums shortly after MMR came in. A young guy earning circa £18k would be considered to be able to afford a mortgage of £80k. If that young guy also has dependants (in this example a non working girlfriend and have a baby together) then that guys mortgage offer will drop from £80k to less than £1k. This wouldnt have happened before MMR when his affordability wouldnt have been materially impacted by his dependants.

[spyguy]

20 minutes ago, regprentice said:

MMR is very interesting. Like s24 it is a slow burn change that will slowly impact people over time as opposed to havibg a 'big bang' effect. It came in 3 years ago and is effectively a tightening of the credit criteria used by banks and building societies to assess mortgage affordability. It affects people looking for a first mortgage, people moving mortgages from one bank to another but it doesnt nescesarily impact people remortgaging with their existing bank.

I read a very interesting example on MSE forums shortly after MMR came in. A young guy earning circa £18k would be considered to be able to afford a mortgage of £80k. If that young guy also has dependants (in this example a non working girlfriend and have a baby together) then that guys mortgage offer will drop from £80k to less than £1k. This wouldnt have happened before MMR when his affordability wouldnt have been materially impacted by his dependants.

Not a slow  burn, now.

Bank have to comply as soon as it came in.

Its been tweaked a bit too, making the hurdle a bit higher.

Itll have a slowish affect on house prices - basically, mortgages are limited to 4 x household income minus any  recurrent expense and other debt.

Due to the stress testing with mortgage rates at 6%, you have an effective tightening.

And it bans consumer IO lending.

In the North, the market was already bouncing along the bottom for 15 years. MMR has resulted in a new, lower bottom being found.

If/when IRs turn - and I think theyll rise faster and higher than people are expecting, people with mortgages post MMR are going to get into trouble and find the window of liquidity very very small.

MMR will hammer the South - ground zero of liar + IO loans.

[spyguy]

59 minutes ago, regprentice said:

MMR is very interesting. Like s24 it is a slow burn change that will slowly impact people over time as opposed to havibg a 'big bang' effect. It came in 3 years ago and is effectively a tightening of the credit criteria used by banks and building societies to assess mortgage affordability. It affects people looking for a first mortgage, people moving mortgages from one bank to another but it doesnt nescesarily impact people remortgaging with their existing bank.

I read a very interesting example on MSE forums shortly after MMR came in. A young guy earning circa £18k would be considered to be able to afford a mortgage of £80k. If that young guy also has dependants (in this example a non working girlfriend and have a baby together) then that guys mortgage offer will drop from £80k to less than £1k. This wouldnt have happened before MMR when his affordability wouldnt have been materially impacted by his dependants.

Well, in your case - lets do an example - Joe 24YO.

Car on loan - payments will be discounted.

15k bank loan for year out/holiday.because he's worth it -  payment discounted.

Student loan repayments for BSc in American studies   (if he actually earns enough) - repayments discounted.

Credit cards - well you  cant take it with you - repayments discounted.

Basically, if the person has a job, his income has already been spent before he earns it.

I saw a couple of 55+ people looking in the EAs windows the other day. I only remember it as its so rare - anyone buying a house uses the internet.

Anyhow I thought, theyd be better off looking in a one of the few remaining banks and working out how much one of the few people under 50 working FT could borrow first.

 

 

 

 

[shortbread]

HALIFAX: Aberdeen average house prices sees 1.1% Fall, YoY

Quote

According to Halifax, Perth has seen a drop of 5.3% – the biggest fall of its kind in Britain. The city’s average house price for 2017 has come down by £10,126 to £180,687.

The study seems to conflict with a recent report compiled by Aberdein Considine.

The company’s Property Monitor analysis for Scotland found that property prices across the whole Perth and Kinross region had actually soared, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase.

Aberdein Considine said that a shortage of stock coming onto the market was inflating selling prices, with the average cost of a home at £203,398.

Halifax’s survey is based on individual towns and cities, rather than regions.

It lists Perth as the weakest for price rises, followed by Stoke-on-Trent (at -4%) and then former UK City of Culture rival Paisley at -3.6%, where the average house price has fallen to £123,665.

Halifax managing director Russell Galley said: “The majority of towns in which house prices have dropped in the last year are situated within Scotland or Yorkshire and the Humber.”

No other place in Courier Country makes it onto the list of 20 weakest price increases, although Aberdeen has seen a decline by 1.1%.

The results
The 20 places which have recorded the weakest year-on-year growth in average house prices. List shows the average house price in 2017, followed by the change in cash and percentage terms.

1. Perth, Scotland, £180,687, minus £10,126, minus 5.3%

3. Paisley, Scotland, £123,665, minus £4,593, minus 3.6%

8. Aberdeen, Scotland, £201,270, minus £2,155, minus 1.1%

The study seems to conflict with a recent report compiled by Aberdein Considine. (ouch!)

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/perth-kinross/572559/survey-reveals-massive-house-price-slump-in-perth/

Edited January 3, 2018 by shortbread

[Diver Dan]

31 minutes ago, shortbread said:

HALIFAX: Aberdeen average house prices sees 1.1% Fall, YoY

The study seems to conflict with a recent report compiled by Aberdein Considine. (ouch!)

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/perth-kinross/572559/survey-reveals-massive-house-price-slump-in-perth/

As I recall, that A&C report was +0.1% so not a million miles away from -1.1%. There's little point in comparing different surveys which use different methodologies and samples though.

The corresponding Halifax Report for 2016 showed a 6.9% decline for Aberdeen. Arguably, a fall of just 1.1% could be seen as an improvement. 

[shortbread]

3 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

As I recall, that A&C report was +0.1% so not a million miles away from -1.1%. There's little point in comparing different surveys which use different methodologies and samples though.

The corresponding Halifax Report for 2016 showed a 6.9% decline for Aberdeen. Arguably, a fall of just 1.1% could be seen as an improvement. 

True, albeit Halifax has been the most positive report in relation to Aberdeen house prices at 1.1%. Nonetheless, any decline only compounds to the previous falls, questioning the use of words like 'recovery'. 

The RoS report for November'17 should be out soon.

[regprentice]

9 hours ago, spyguy said:

Well, in your case - lets do an example - Joe 24YO.

Car on loan - payments will be discounted.

15k bank loan for year out/holiday.because he's worth it -  payment discounted.

Student loan repayments for BSc in American studies   (if he actually earns enough) - repayments discounted.

Credit cards - well you  cant take it with you - repayments discounted.

Basically, if the person has a job, his income has already been spent before he earns it.

Agree 100%. BY slow burn i meant that, Like S24, it doesn't penalise people the day it was introduced but but will soon get many at some point in the near future when their short term rate fix comes to an end. Hammond seems to allow everything to 'taper' into the future so there is jam today but he can work the full effects into his modelling and budgeting for the future (5yrs +)

The biggest single impact of MMR is on families paying for childcare which wasn't previously taken into account when calculating mortgage affordability. My wife and i paid £50 quid a day for childcare, for 2 kids thats £26k a year. My wife needed to be earning £33.5k to 'break even' after tax. Under MMR that £33.5k comes straight off the annual income, potentially halving the amount the bank will lend.

Lots of threads on MSE recently along the lines of 'do i tell the bank i'm pregnant/not going back after maternity leave/thinking of having a child'.

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, regprentice said:

Agree 100%. BY slow burn i meant that, Like S24, it doesn't penalise people the day it was introduced but but will soon get many at some point in the near future when their short term rate fix comes to an end. Hammond seems to allow everything to 'taper' into the future so there is jam today but he can work the full effects into his modelling and budgeting for the future (5yrs +)

The biggest single impact of MMR is on families paying for childcare which wasn't previously taken into account when calculating mortgage affordability. My wife and i paid £50 quid a day for childcare, for 2 kids thats £26k a year. My wife needed to be earning £33.5k to 'break even' after tax. Under MMR that £33.5k comes straight off the annual income, potentially halving the amount the bank will lend.

Lots of threads on MSE recently along the lines of 'do i tell the bank i'm pregnant/not going back after maternity leave/thinking of having a child'.

As MMR currently stands, you need an household income of 30k before you can think about a mortgage. With no other commitments or debts.

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, regprentice said:

Agree 100%. BY slow burn i meant that, Like S24, it doesn't penalise people the day it was introduced but but will soon get many at some point in the near future when their short term rate fix comes to an end. Hammond seems to allow everything to 'taper' into the future so there is jam today but he can work the full effects into his modelling and budgeting for the future (5yrs +)

The biggest single impact of MMR is on families paying for childcare which wasn't previously taken into account when calculating mortgage affordability. My wife and i paid £50 quid a day for childcare, for 2 kids thats £26k a year. My wife needed to be earning £33.5k to 'break even' after tax. Under MMR that £33.5k comes straight off the annual income, potentially halving the amount the bank will lend.

Lots of threads on MSE recently along the lines of 'do i tell the bank i'm pregnant/not going back after maternity leave/thinking of having a child'.

On your points.

MMR basically knackers the Live in sticks, big country house, commute to London.

Pre mmr,  youd just give your London salary and get that big house in Hants, Sussex, up to 90mins out.

Looking at the rail whinging, these places now cost 6k for season ticket, so 12k pre tax earning. 

London average wage is 29k.

[spyguy]

And, no you dont tell bnk if youre knocked up.

Whether she can afford the morgage is another thing - youve a good 15 years out of one earning.

[cashinmattress]

Don't let your optimism get the way of reality?

 

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/160594/aberdeen-suffer-5500-oil-job-losses-report-says/

Quote

Aberdeen will feel the effects of the oil sector downturn for years to come, with another 5,500 energy sector jobs expected to be lost by 2027, a new report says.

...

In September, OGUK said the oil sector supported 300,000 jobs in the UK, down from 460,000 in 2014.

...

Colin Clark, Scottish Conservative MP for Gordon, said: “The headline figure that a further 5,500 jobs could be lost over the next 10 years is alarming, but the assessment also states those losses will be offset by strong growth in other areas of the north-east economy.

'other areas' means low wage

[Haddie]

Good to read that you are back with a bang, Cash!

[Oily]

Normal service has been resumed!

 

[Ignorantbliss]

On 1/10/2018 at 9:51 AM, cashinmattress said:

Don't let your optimism get the way of reality?

 

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/160594/aberdeen-suffer-5500-oil-job-losses-report-says/

'other areas' means low wage

Activity is rising going by what I am hearing from contacts in O&G (definitely more tenders). 

Conversely though, there is no boom coming - heard of at least one person that was laid off in 2015 and got re-hired at end of 2017.  Effectively same job as before, but this time the salary half of what it was plus big cut in benefits (pension especially).

[ccc]

54 minutes ago, Ignorantbliss said:

Activity is rising going by what I am hearing from contacts in O&G (definitely more tenders). 

Conversely though, there is no boom coming - heard of at least one person that was laid off in 2015 and got re-hired at end of 2017.  Effectively same job as before, but this time the salary half of what it was plus big cut in benefits (pension especially).

Interesting. On the Scottish sub forum [IIRC] years ago I had a debate with a number of people saying this sort of thing wouldn't happen. If they 'wanted the best' they would still pay top dollar etc. etc..

I pointed out that's all fine until 'The best' numbers triple and many of them are out of work and desperate.

What's happened to contract day rates ? Similar ?

[cashinmattress]

57 minutes ago, Ignorantbliss said:

Activity is rising going by what I am hearing from contacts in O&G (definitely more tenders). 

Conversely though, there is no boom coming - heard of at least one person that was laid off in 2015 and got re-hired at end of 2017.  Effectively same job as before, but this time the salary half of what it was plus big cut in benefits (pension especially).

That's pretty much the way of things. M&A activity has seen to it that many key personnel are earning less in wages and perks.

Also...tenders to not necessarily equate to work.

Futher... on any future boom....especially in DECOM...there won't be any.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/removing-north-sea-oil-platforms-could-do-more-harm-than-good-1-4657782

This fella is correct in that DECOM is a massive burden to the taxpayer. I'm not really buying the environmental argument as it ignores all other other wasteful and un-green practices which Britain continues on with.

http://www.osjonline.com/news/view,more-than-300-fields-in-north-sea-will-see-decommissioning-activity-by-2025_50385.htm

And the cupboard is bare. Oil interests have no money to DECOM with and no UK government will want to go hat in hand to the electorate and ask for mega £billions to clean up the remnants of a mostly bygone era.

Expect 'green' taxation to cover the gap.

There are stirring elsewhere.

https://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-shale-oil-industry-swindling-stealing-energy-stay-alive/

Quote

Thus, the U.S. E&P companies tapped into an additional $212 billion worth of funding over the last six years to produce uneconomical shale oil and gas.

...dis-invest from shale and into 'green'?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/29/uk-takes-first-shipment-sanction-hit-russian-gas-plant/

Quote

The first shipment of liquified natural gas from Russia’s sanction-hit £20bn Yamal project has arrived in the UK.

..ie: cheaper elsewhere. Some 'conspiracy' on this story of course. See for yourself.

https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3024054/uk-downgrades-forecasts-for-new-gas-power-capacity-amid-renewables-surge

Quote

The government has downgraded its forecasts for new gas power capacity coming online between now and 2035, and is predicting renewables and nuclear power will increase their dominance of the electricity mix, a new analysis has found.

Thing is with wind, tidal, et al... it is cheap....requiring cheap engineering, services, etc... Especially wind...where 50% of life-cycle cost can be absorbed from the OPEX budget. Eeek. Does't bode well for the Aberdeen 'at any cost' being acceptable (former) state of play.

Get used to thinner margins.

[sfr]

I’m hearing lots of tendering going on and should come to fruition end Q1 and in Q2 for the big EPCs. Lots of short term ‘bed hopping’ work for contractors. But not the big numbers as seen before and now deign long termed coming back into the fold.

interestingly. An EPC which sounds like it rivals Ikea have given a juicy 3-4% pay rise for staff in already overpriced and overpaid Melbourne office...  

[EME]

Brent hit $70 a barrel late this afternoon, a 3 year high ?