Oily

I don't blame you for thinking that but it's important to understand the bigger picture. I'm aware of the fanfare in the media about the new approvals but, as with most headlines, the reporting lacks perspective and conveys a poor understanding of the real situation. Much as I dislike the MSM and Reuters (and their sponsored fact checkers) the following link helps put the story into perspective. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uk-tax-sweetener-wont-stop-plummeting-north-sea-oil-gas-output-2023-06-09/

I suspect the Countesswells development is dead in the water (much like the Chapelton of Elsick village beside Newtonhill, which I really like but it arrived too late)

Spot on Reg. Property prices have effectively halved in real terms over the past 10 years. The decline in the oil industry ramps on as exploration and production fall, although I never anticipated the demonisation of the industry as it's sacrificed by the climate change zealots. A few years ago at the time of the independence referendum much of the SNP case was based on the tax revenues from the industry they now wish to close down. There are other factors..... supply of new builds continues to grow as builders are keen to capitalise on their land-banks. To maintain the headline prices of their new builds they offer unrealistic trade-in prices for the older properties then dump them at massive discounts. Sky high energy prices also mean older granite buildings are unattractive vs modern insulated properties. The fabric of many older granite buildings is in poor condition and there doesn't seem to be the will or resources to maintain them. Trees grow out of chimney stacks and >100 year old roofs are desperate for renewal. Aberdeen will become increasingly attractive to low income incomers as it will be seen as a low cost housing area. And we are nowhere near the bottom of the decline yet. Who saw this crash coming to Aberdeen? Well many of us on this thread did as it was inevitable .... nothing was ever going to replace the high employment, high earnings of the oil industry...not even a Trump golf course and a few cruise ships. Those of us who predicted this outcome were roundly criticised by those afflicted by the modern disease of blind positive 'thinking'.

It looks like well presented houses are generating interest. A semi near me recently attracted over 10 noted interests in just over a week and sold for £50k over valuation. It had great modern extension and was close to perfect elsewhere. Less attractive properties still seem to be sticking.

Recent posts make sad reading for Aberdeen. It's the perfect storm of oil industry decline (and rates/wages and therefore spending power), the anti-oil green lobby, WFH and insane levels of new building as builders off-load their land banks before they become worthless. It was always going to happen but it's come a few years early. I've been banging on about this for a long time but more positive thinking 'visionaries' always used to reassure me with phrases like "oil will still be here in 50 years time" and or "something always comes along to take its place". Unfortunately the city is now in a race to the bottom. I was fortunate before I retired to tap into a rich seam of high day rates in the drilling sector and latterly litigation and claims and had the foresight to build up reserves by avoiding the Audi/Range Rover and executive mansion/box trap that so many have bought in to and still need a strong cash flow to sustain. Renewables and decommissioning were never going to fill the void left by the fall in operations, maintenance and exploration activities. Union Street and the city centre is in terminal decline and many buildings are in a serious state of disrepair. M&S was virtually empty last week and its future must be in serious doubt. Without the footfall generated by John Lewis and M&S and all the other large stores that have shut in the past few years the viability of other businesses will probably not be be sustainable. Although the cooncil is clearly incompetent it's hard to know what anyone could do about it other than try to mitigate the impact. I hope I'm wrong but suspect I'm not.

This doesn't accord with my limited and unscientific research - in my experience the asking prices of houses recently appearing on ASPC that were previously sold around the 2015/2017 period generally show significant (i.e. eye-watering) falls, especially if they were new builds.

"severe but plausible downside scenario" ..... who does their forecasting - Imperial College?! “material uncertainty” over the ability of the group to continue as a going concern .... reading between the lines I wonder if there's going to be a major problem refinancing the loan in March. I played golf with one of SM's ex-directors a few years ago and he intimated the Countesswells development was a serious error.

What am I like? I normally believe everything I read in the P&J obvs and Bob Fraser is a visionary in predicting house market trends. Let's play 'talk the market up" bingo next time there's an ASPC article ----- <Green Shoots> <Energy Hub> <Decommissioning>....HOUSE!

A bit lengthy, but I thought it was worth revisiting one of my old posts from over 5 years ago in light of today's articles regarding out-of-work oil workers. If you factor in the relentless green movement and the global covid measures I don't think it'll be long before there's a general realisation the good times are gone for good in Aberdeen. In the meantime housebuilders will continue to add two to three thousand new properties to the overall housing stock every year - it's now or never if they're ever going to recover the 'sunk cost' of their land banks. One major concern is the poor state of the traditional housing stock in the city - I can see granite tenements becoming unsellable as their condition continually deteriorates and repair costs being unaffordable (if you've ever tried to organise payment for shared repairs you'll know what I mean!). Good example in this recent news story but a quick walk around the city centre with reveal many similar properties in an extremely poor state of repair. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-55750240 Aberdeen is the new Dundee (or rather the old Dundee as it's actually done rather well to diversify its economy and reinvent itself over the past few decades).

I agree with Diver D .... no one really knows. WWIW my view is the Aberdeen market is in terminal decline aided and abetted by a council giving permission to build on every piece of remaining green space on the deluded assumption that the local population is on a sustained upward trend. Also be careful about buying a flat in a traditional granite property as many are in poor state of repair (esp rooves and chimneys) and getting other tenants to agree to pay for essential repairs can be a serious nightmare eg scaffolding requirements now mean that a simple roof repair can cost thousands of pounds, which means they often don't get done.

I don't know who 'owned' at the end as it's quite difficult to disentangle corporate and personal stakes. A well known property and mortgage company was associated with it and one of the company's owners was involved in an insolvency a year or so ago. so can only speculate. The latest oil price plunge won't be helping Aberdeen so I expect more house price drops, especially as the new builds continue unabated. All supported by the council and it's erroneous assumption that Aberdeen population will rise over the next decade.

".....losing approximately £9,200/month" PLUS financing of £1.4m for 65 months PLUS stamp duty and it still looks overpriced! Bought by a property "expert" as an investment.

On a positive note the Council's up for a big award!

This is very sad, not to say worrying. Who'd be a teacher nowadays? I recently heard from a teacher at a primary school whose intake is mainly from an newish affluent 'executive' estate on the outskirts of Aberdeen who described the pupils as a friggin nightmare. There's a shock coming for a lot of people (unfortunately*/fortunately*) * Delete as appropriate!

We're going to have to find a new favourite. Was £1.415m when new in 2014, now sold for circa £875k. This property has been removed from your wishlist as it has been sold. ASPC ref. 361153 10 Oakhill Grange, AB15 5EB"