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House Price Crash Forum

Oily

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About Oily

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  1. I agree with the other posters that this is an unattractive house inside and out. The internal layout is confusing and awkward and the garden is a joke. One reason they can't hand the keys back to the mortgage company is that the property was bought by a mortgage company as an 'investment" property! It's been a slow crash in Aberdeen but it's a crash all the same. Bob at ASPC has done a sterling job trying to talk up the market over the past few years with his relentless 'signs of recovery' articles. In reality the year-on-year fall in house prices is accelerating as folks become increasingly aware that Aberdeen's near-total reliance on a single non-sustainable industry wasn't a good long term strategy.
  2. 27 Garthdee Farm Gardens https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/376893/27-Garthdee-Farm-Gardens/Aberdeen/ This house has gone under offer relatively quickly. Price drop of almost £170k=33% in 4 years. A good test of the size of reduction required to shift a property of this type. It will be interesting to see if this affects the survey valuations of houses in this development.
  3. ....and where neither the title nor the content match reality
  4. Agree - the rampant property boom was foreseeable and avoidable . The Bank of England's task was to set interest rates to control inflation but for some reason house inflation was excluded from their consideration. Rampant house inflation (and asset inflation generally) was seen as a good thing but in reality it contributed to the overheating of the economy in the UK as property owners felt more prosperous and many borrowed against their overpriced assets. Property prices are now now kept high by historically low interest rates and it will be very difficult to increase them without backrupting thousands of borrowers. Savers have lost wealth through steady inflation. Borrowers would appear to have gained by enjoying kow interest rates, but will lose big time if their properties fall in value as is now happening. So who has gained from the last ten years of low interest rates??? I suspect it will be the financial services industry.
  5. Interesting post and sad to see the loss of indigenous industry and its impact on the local community. It's particularly worrying to see the loss of existing non-oil jobs given that Aberdeen's future is dependent on its ability to diversify away from oil and gas.
  6. My first thought is any article that quotes Aberdein Considine or Bob Fraser isn't worth reading. However at least the author acknowledges the potential bias of the contributors: "However, it is worth pointing out that it has a vested interest in ramping up the market in the local area." (BTW the article is dated 19 Ocober 2018) Nonetheless a quick skim reveals the true extent of the ******** contained therein: "The company is predicting that, as there is a current skills shortage for the labour that is required in Aberdeen - Europe's oil capital - the recent surge in the price of oil will bring an influx of staff to the city shortly, subsequently raising housing costs." What??!! "As oil production is increasing and new labourers are expected to return to Aberdeen, Aberdein Considine says this might be a great chance to snap up property." Eh??! "Labourers"......are they digging the wells by hand nowadays!? "However, with oil now sitting above $80 again – and suggestions that global events could push it higher – savvy buyers and investors are returning to the market in Aberdeen." Three months on and Brent Crude is sitting aroung the $60 mark so I guess 'savvy buyers and investors' are leaving the market in Aberdeen. The readers' comments at the end of the article are generally derisory e.g. Rebelof52: "In a word "No". Aberdeen's has had its day for oil. there will be peaks and troughs for a few more years, but basically it is over. All the platforms are well beyond their design life and the theme now is for renewable energy. Property prices in Aberdeen will continue to fall, unless another industry comes along where there is a high demand for property."
  7. I can't find much to disagree with here. I often walk about Aberdeen and am struck by the poor state of repair of many of the older properties, especially in the tenement areas and centre of town buildings. You can often see weeds growing in guttering, small trees growing out of chimney stacks etc. Having lived in tenements and shared properties I would not want to face the hassle again of trying to organise multiple owners to agree to a schedule of repairs and can easily see the attraction of a new build property. That said I'm surprised at the number of new build flats (eg Hammerman that include cheap pine cladding that quickly starts to age badly and blacken - whilst it would be relatively easy to re-treat pine at ground level it is often fitted 3 or 4 stories up which would mean extensive/expensive scaffolding to maintain. A quick example of scruffy pine cladding at Hammerman Avenue: https://www.martinco.com/property/for-sale/316200 Wood at this level should really by larch or cedar that improves and silvers with age - pine just starts to look like sh1t.
  8. On a POSITIVE note.......the price drop is not in 10 Oakhill Grange freefall category, which is now approaching a half million pound reduction and still not selling. Now there's an uninspiring house with a horrible internal layout and a joke garden. Hard to believe someone paid almost one and a half mill for a gaff with a garden like this! Note the minimal planting scheme and clever use of a meandering path to give the impression of width. https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/361153/10-Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/
  9. If anyone's looking for positivity they'll have to join another forum! Two disturbing anecdotal reports I heard a few years ago from experts close to (but not working on) the AWPR project: 1. It was recognised some of the junctions would be undercapacity by the time it was completed and would lead to bottlenecks. This would appear to be the case for example with traffic travelling between Kingswells and Westhill at peak times. 2. The technical specification of the road surface was reckoned to be inappropriate, which resulted in the unnecessary importation of granite hardcore from Ireland and too low a bitumen content on the final road surface. My contact reckoned this could reduce the anticipated life of the road surface from 15 years to 5 years, with some problems possibly emerging within 12 months. Let's see. Getting back to the subject of the house price crash ....... here's an example that's been on the market for over 7 months and has dropped in price by £90k in just over 4 years (from £365k to £275k). This would be potentially ruinous for many people and must be getting close to 'crash' territory. https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/368677/30-Garthdee-Farm-Gardens/Aberdeen/
  10. I wouldn't read too much into the fall in the absolute number of properties on the ASPC register .... it always falls over the dormant winter period as people take their houses off the market, probably with the intention of re-listing them when the market picks up in the springtime. I get a daily report which lists changes i.e. newly listed properties, properties newly under offer (or 'no longer under offer') and prices updates. It doesn't list withdrawls but it's quite easy to exprapolate by simple arithmetic (unless I'm missing something). Typically there are a greater number of new properties than those coming under offer, for example, on 12th December there were 18 new listings and 17 property updates: NEW = 18; UNDER OFFER = 8; NO LONGER UNDER OFFER = 2; PRICE UPDATE = 7. I can only recall one day recently where the number under offer exceeded the number of new listings. If there were no seasonal withdrawals I reckon the total number on the register would be rising, not falling. Another aspect to bear in mind is that the ASPC register generally does not include new builds and it's anyone's guess as to what the numbers or trends are with those.
  11. I reckon Cash's posts are usually spot on. I've got decades of experience in the oil industry at ALL levels, from junior clerical to general manager. I don't loathe the industry but it's hard not to be extremely cynical about the general standard of competence and attitude of employees and contractors alike. There are notable exceptions but they often don't get adequate recognition. My early career was as a University research economist, including a position in early 80's at Glasgow University working for renowned housing economist (Duncan MacLennan) but my negative views regarding the long term outlook for Aberdeen are not based on any data, reports or studies. It's simply a case of the inevitable decline in the oil industry and the belief that nothing can come close to replacing it as a high value employer. Add in the unbridled levels of house building and an incompetent council and I believe the long term outlook is bleak.
  12. Bloomin disgrace....saw a number of comments on Facebook yesterday from people who clearly believed the hype because it was written by an 'expert'. The naivety of folks beggers belief. And I saw another solicitor backing up this article today. It is misleading to compare the current situation with the 1980's as ALL the circumstances are different, not least in 1985 nearly all the NS oil and gas was yet to be produced whereas now only the hard/expensive to exploit opportunities remain. Also with regard economic diversification - well that's a lot easier to say than do - you only have to look at Dundee (lost Timex, NCR, jute, publishing); the central belt (lost coal, shipbuilding, car manufacturing); north of England (lost textiles and manufacturing) to see how well they're doing. Aberdeen has lost papermaking, fishing, granite quarrying and farming (as a major employer) but the slack was more than taken up by the oil industry, whose days/years are numbered. The chances of Aberdeen becoming a major employer as a result of becoming a centre of excellence for the oil and gas industry are zero.
  13. My daily aspc report consistently shows a greater number of 'new' properties vs prooerties being tagged as 'under offer' which leads me to believe the drop in total numbers on the register is mainly as a result of people withdrawing their properties as we approach the end of the summer season. I reckon the total number will continue to fall until spring 2019.
  14. It could actually be a lot worse than £600k - add in poss mortgage costs plus stamp duty and utilities and removal costs ......you could easily be looking at a total cost of ownership for 4 yrs of more than £800k which is almost £17k/mth. And it's not sold yet. The internal layout of the house is not great and the garden is a bad joke. Disaster.
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