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Aberdeen, Aspc Stats


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HOLA441

A friend of mine was viewing a flat today and he got a look at the solicitor's stock list. Looks like that have a lot of unsold places, some on the market since 2015.

 

Registers of Scotland Monthly House Price Report Released today

Aberdeen City sold prices are down 4% on average since this time last year and is the joint largest reduction alongside Inverclyde. Not as big an annual decrease as earlier in the year admittedly but it is steadily improving the purchasing power of my savings even if the financial institutions who are holding them aren't.

Edited by Diver Dan
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HOLA442
On 07/12/2017 at 12:58 PM, delboypass said:

Why go North .. the worst thing about going north is the long drive to go south... May be better when AWPR is completed

I was up in Aberdeen recently and saw a bit of the new road. I thought “ah looks good, wonder what it cost” - thinking maybe £100 million for a 36 mile stretch of road. But no, it’s £745 million!!! What’s it made of? Gold plated tarmac?

https://www.transport.gov.scot/projects/aberdeen-western-peripheral-route-balmedie-to-tipperty/aberdeen-western-peripheral-route-balmedie-to-tipperty/#10100

 

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HOLA443
13 minutes ago, Warwick-Watcher said:

I was up in Aberdeen recently and saw a bit of the new road. I thought “ah looks good, wonder what it cost” - thinking maybe £100 million for a 36 mile stretch of road. But no, it’s £745 million!!! What’s it made of? Gold plated tarmac?

https://www.transport.gov.scot/projects/aberdeen-western-peripheral-route-balmedie-to-tipperty/aberdeen-western-peripheral-route-balmedie-to-tipperty/#10100

 

Road length statistics for Great Britain. The total road length for 2016 was estimated to be: 246,500 miles

Total worth of our roads (£m) = 745 / 36 x 246,500 = 5,101,181 ~£5 trillion.  We are so rich! 

Edited by Bear Hug
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HOLA444
2 hours ago, Warwick-Watcher said:

I was up in Aberdeen recently and saw a bit of the new road. I thought “ah looks good, wonder what it cost” - thinking maybe £100 million for a 36 mile stretch of road. But no, it’s £745 million!!! What’s it made of? Gold plated tarmac?

https://www.transport.gov.scot/projects/aberdeen-western-peripheral-route-balmedie-to-tipperty/aberdeen-western-peripheral-route-balmedie-to-tipperty/#10100

 

Just had a look at the map - it is a massive new road with heavy engineering works, no wonder the cost.

Might have been useful 40 years ago, but now it goes nowhere. Another vanity project.

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HOLA445
3 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Road length statistics for Great Britain. The total road length for 2016 was estimated to be: 246,500 miles

Total worth of our roads (£m) = 745 / 36 x 246,500 = 5,101,181 ~£5 trillion.  We are so rich! 

They had to pay off a lot of wealthy landowners and pay a lot of lawyers before they could even touch a single blade of grass along the route.

I'd like to see a marathon along it the weekend before it opens and/or some sort of motorsport event, but highly unlikely.

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HOLA446

So according to local radio house prices on the up.

New aspc report says prices increasing - not available online yet but local paper link below 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/tentative-signs-of-recovery-in-n-east-property-market/amp/

Apparently average property now 200k when in November 164k?

https://www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/business/uk-house-price-trends-how-bucks-compares-with-the-rest-of-the-country-1-8254363

 

Really!?

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HOLA447
18 minutes ago, babo456 said:

So according to local radio house prices on the up.

New aspc report says prices increasing - not available online yet but local paper link below 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/tentative-signs-of-recovery-in-n-east-property-market/amp/

Apparently average property now 200k when in November 164k?

https://www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/business/uk-house-price-trends-how-bucks-compares-with-the-rest-of-the-country-1-8254363

 

Really!?

My guess is that the Evening Sexpest's story is taken from the Aberdein & Condsidine agency's own cherry-picked internal stats that show this increase. Their blurb in the stories speaks of increases in sales of £500k and above properties. This probably indicates that they are focusing their attention as a company on the upper and of the market and doing quite well at it.

There is no mention in the EE story about recent ASPC and RofS reports which show continuing falls.

Meanwhile, ASPC has many sub-£200k non-newbuilds sitting for months.

Edited by Diver Dan
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HOLA448
1 minute ago, Diver Dan said:

My guess is that it is the Aberdein & Condsidine agency's own cherry-picked internal stats that show this increase. Their blurb in the stories speaks of increases in sales of £500k and above properties. This probably indicates that they are focusing their attention as a company on the upper and of the market and doing quite well at it.

There is no mention in the articles about recent ASPC and RofS reports which show continuing falls.

Meanwhile, ASPC has many sub-£200k non-newbuilds sitting for months.

I agree, seems like a numerical fudge! A convenient number '+0.1%', which was good enough for Evening Express to report a 'rise' whereas most credible journos would have gone with a flat/stagnant headline.

I would rather wait for the likes of RoS, Hometrack etc for more honest November numbers. 

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HOLA449
On 13/12/2017 at 11:50 PM, onlooker said:

Just had a look at the map - it is a massive new road with heavy engineering works, no wonder the cost.

Might have been useful 40 years ago, but now it goes nowhere. Another vanity project.

Pretty much what the taxi driver said - the new road is 30 years too late.

typical government project - dodgy economics used to justify the enormous expense.

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HOLA4410

Aberdeen average house prices fall 3.7% YoY

Contrary to the claims made by the Aberdein Considine/P&J nexus, Hometrack Nov 2017 report shows that Aberdeen average house prices continue to drop!

- Scottish cities top growth league table; Housing market activity across rest of Scotland has picked up over 2017 and this has resulted in Glasgow recording the highest rate of house price growth (7.9%), followed by Edinburgh (7.6%).

- Aberdeen continues to register price falls with average values down 3.7% over the last 12 months. 

5a38e5069f58f_AberdeenaveragevaluechartNov17.JPG.e4956d3455129c96b377d68defd32dd3.JPG

source: https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/november-2017-cities-index/

 

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HOLA4411
2 hours ago, shortbread said:

Aberdeen average house prices fall 3.7% YoY

Contrary to the claims made by the Aberdein Considine/P&J nexus, Hometrack Nov 2017 report shows that Aberdeen average house prices continue to drop!

- Scottish cities top growth league table; Housing market activity across rest of Scotland has picked up over 2017 and this has resulted in Glasgow recording the highest rate of house price growth (7.9%), followed by Edinburgh (7.6%).

- Aberdeen continues to register price falls with average values down 3.7% over the last 12 months. 

5a38e5069f58f_AberdeenaveragevaluechartNov17.JPG.e4956d3455129c96b377d68defd32dd3.JPG

source: https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/november-2017-cities-index/

 

Look at London, Oxford, Camb. & Bristol!  Although the highest at least globalisation provides at least some basis for London's rise, Bristol was already largely an overpriced dump in 2007 and nothing's changed.  Before any locals say "but Redland, but Clifton.." they're ridiculously overpriced and both still part dump.  Like many places (Fulham, Wimbledon, Ealing, I could go on) they're perceived as posh because wealthy people live there, but when you look more closely at them you see the peeling paint and graffiti,  rubbish in some gardens, cheap furniture in "£800k" houses and hear the pathetic boy "racers" in their worthless 15 year old Honda money pits. 

Its going to be hilarious when this baby blows.  Both my boys are working abroad now so not feeding the beast.  I still feed it, but I don't want to give up a mostly pleasant job in the City and flat in a green and friendly London suburb (albeit at a higher rent than it should be) just yet.

In a year or 2 I'll hopefully be working 5 days a month for the Tax free allowance thus starving the beast further.  With a bit of luck if 1 or both of my lads return then, they'll pick up a fixer upper from an overleveraged numpty and pay little or no SDLT.  Or maybe the whole family will jump ship abroad & leave this mismanaged, bankrupt country to fester..?

Back on topic: a good friend used to live near Aberdeen and in the last 2 years has changed from a 100% ramper to being really worried about his overborrowed friends up there (he hasn't directly admitted that I was right, but you can't expect the moon on a stick).

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HOLA4413

Those are some spicy meatballs, Shortbread. You should apply for a job at DC Thomson!

What I think will possibly happen now is that an economic shock will cause a lot of these "sellers" will find themselves needing to cut their losses over a short period of time. I can't see how else the overinflated prices and inventories will unravel themselves.

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HOLA4416
1 hour ago, Haddie said:

Kind of makes A/C s interpretation  of the market look stupid.I wonder how many folks are holding back until  the market picks up.I predicted 6000 by December....got that one completely wrong....

A/C are anything but stupid, they know exactly what they're doing.

I predict that a lot of the houses that have disappeared from ASPC recently will reappear in a few months perhaps with a fresh lick of paint and maybe some new curtains, in time for the Spring bounce.

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HOLA4421
16 hours ago, shackleford said:

28% in three years?  Ouch!

I do not think the real fall in Aberdeen house prices is 28%, I feel that is too drastic a number. The statistic is only for 'advertised' prices and the fall must be attributed to thousands of 1 and 2 bed properties put up for sale right across Aberdeen post the oil price fall! Everywhere in the city right now one can see property agency signs outside terraced properties and flat windows.

The real story is the crash in Aberdeen rents and consecutively  BTL landlords trying to get rid of their properties. The influx of these 1 and 2 beds into the property market must have had an adverse affect on the 'average asking price' figure.

The Reason: Average rent for a 2 bed property in Scotland is £643. Right now on ASPC alone there are more than 30 2-bed properties in Aberdeen city available for rent at £550/month or lower! That too in nice parts of the city, I haven't included the likes of Torry real-estate in that list or it would have been many more. That again is the advertised rent, both agencies and landlords are willing to reduce rents further for long term tenants in Aberdeen right now. In real terms, Aberdeen must be among the cheapest cities to rent in the UK right now. 

Every year rents in Aberdeen keep falling by 10%, as per the gov.scot report.

Quote
  • Rents for 2 bedroom properties in Aberdeen and Shire fell by 9.6%, the THIRD consecutive annual decrease.

Aberdeen Rent changes from 2016 to 2017

1 Bed property:   -11.5%
2 Bed property:   -9.6%
3 Bed property:   -6.9%
4 Bed property:   -9.5%

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0052/00527494.pdf

This is not necessarily a bad thing.

If Aberdeen has to re-ignite its withering economy it needs to bring in more people and businesses. The best way to do it is through competitive private and commercial properties available to rent. The private rents have crashed and will continue to fall, no doubt. Looking at Union Street, Albyn place etc... commercial properties look to be struggling as well. The city-center desperately needs new retail businesses or any outsider entering Union Street will get a very poor idea about the city's fortunes.

The flip side is fortunes for BTL land lords have turned on its head. In the span of two quarters it turned from a sellers to a buyers market. So coming back to the topic I think there are thousands of former BTL properties now up for sale because its no where as lucrative as it once was. 

 

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HOLA4422
  • 2 weeks later...
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HOLA4423

Aberdeen sees -41% annual drop in property demand

Quote

Emoov's 'National Demand Index' is the longest running index of its kind, based on property demand levels, rather than house price growth. The index looks at demand for property across the UK, based on the balance of stock listed for sale on all of the major property portals compared to the stock that has already been sold. In short, the areas that have the largest number of properties sold compared to those for sale are the most in demand amongst UK buyers.

The latest and last index for Q4 2017, shows that property demand in the UK is currently at 34%, down 6% after a tough year for UK property. Rochdale (+56%) and Stoke-on-Trent (+53%) have seen the largest increase over the course of the year, while Aberdeen (-41%) has seen the biggest drop.

Scotland

Across Scotland, buyer demand is currently at 34%, down 6% since the start of the year. The Scottish capital tops the table for current demand at 56% in Edinburgh, followed by West Lothian (55%), East Renfrewshire (53%) and Glasgow (52%).

Aberdeen continues to have a rough ride where buyer demand is concerned at just 8%, with the area also seeing the third largest decline over the year down 41%, beaten only by the Orkney Isles (-45%) and South Ayrshire (-43%).

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https://www.emoov.co.uk/news/2017/12/28/emoovs-national-hotspots-demand-index-q4-2017/

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HOLA4424

drive 30 minutes out from aberdeen in any direction and the price of property halfs or even more, drive 50 miles and its practically a quarter the price. places like forfar or arbroath or huntly or fraserbutgh or macduff or bechin. you can get a typical scottish tenement flat in dundee for 30k or less in a decent area like strathmartine rd or parts of lochee, greaat for the city centre. or you can get yourself a house in brechin for 50k. 

 

the sole thing that made aberdeen diffrent from all these other places around it was the oil industry, that industry even if prices rise is in decline and its going to come back down with a huge bang like happened in places like port glasgow and greenock and inverclyde when the shipyards disapeared off the clyde. or dundee which was once the richest area of the uk, yes thats right the uk when it had more millionaires than anywhere else per head of population, the houses they built still stand today on the lawthe law hill and out to clepington and across the bridge to newport and along the coast to brougty ferry.. when the jute industry moved to bangledesh and elsewhere the money left and dundee became the sick man of scotland. it took years to change but never did and never will reach they lofty hieghts again.

 

aberdeen will go the same way if i owned a house there i would take any offer that came my way becuase the price is going to be half in 10 years town, id love for someone to tell me it will be different, it wont. another place thats in for the big shock is inverness, lots there work in the oil industry too, and inverness has had probably the biggest housing boom in all of the uk, for many years it has been the uks fastest growing city, the whole eonomy has been based near on building more and more houses, the city has doubled in size in 20 years feeding on its own expansion. they have tourism though and inverness is also the hub for the largest council area in the uk stretching over half the area of scotland. so i can see inverness being ok in the long run. but aberdeen needs to find a reason to exist and soon 

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HOLA4425

Some festive news below that should bring all stakeholders some interest or at least prompt debate / thoughts…….views are based on observations, what I have read, what I feel, and what I have heard talking to industry, shop owners, businesses, councillors etc.

Observations & Anecdotes

- The Oil Majors Unit Developments costs are being hailed as an extremely positive sign that the UKCS basin is no longer the laughing stock it was once. This makes a monumental difference to investment and returns….

- An oil price around 50-60 keeps investors happy with the UKCS - anything higher is a bonus but makes them nervous too. Stability is sought ; not wild fluctuations that no-one can plan for (but keeps oil traders happy)

- The OGA are really driving collaboration now and also forcing innovation and synergies it would appear. Technology stewardship and managing hubs and export lines can only be a good thing for all.

- Commitment to the North Sea seems far, far more positive at the moment - a fair few Investment Decisions ought to roll in soon that should keep the supply chain busier or at least provide some confidence that the recovery is accelerating. 

- Have heard that some of the big EPIC Co's order books, whilst not saturated, are filling in a very promising fashion.

- Already heard of one company having contractors leave due to chasing day rates. 

- Most Majors and some Indy's are looking at the attractive low cost of semi subs / jack up's - rates potentially picking up accordingly ? It’s complicating investment strategies and creating some churn/flux as plans change as a consequence of envisaged rate rises / dynamic economics.

( & yes rampant inflation isn't always a good thing - Aberdeen does not need a wild boom, it's need some steady growth that benefits all the inhabitants of Aberdeen right down to nurses, school teachers etc)

- In a $140 world many companies were losing money due to costs getting out of control - it would appear that corner is being turned for most. Decent profits now being reported across the board. Many companies still run close to the wire or will go under. As a consequence, there is lots of M&A activity in the basin.

( the supply chain is still hurting in many areas - will the new pain be a lack of decent staff and new blood to cope with an upcycle ?)

- I heard of one chap working on 1 or 2 tenders one specific week only to be hit with 15+ the next week (Dec. 17) & yes tenders need to translate into work......there is a lag involved. There has certainly been lots of tendering activity across the board from Drilling to Decomm.

- There is some reasonable Windfarm and Cable related work on the horizon e.g Hornsea, East Anglia and some large power connectors from Scandinavia - good to diversify and keep the related O&G supply chain active.

- Many majors and their share prices have recovered along with the price of oil - the shale investors are still licking their wounds and now far more interested in value and as opposed to growth at any cost. They will help keep a ceiling on prices - the rest is down to Trump to an extent.

- It looks like the Saudis and Russians are still chums for now - consumer demand is picking up. Electric cars look promising but it will take time to come to mass market.

- Electrification in general - is driving the energy transition and the quest for gas - already a depressed market but when Putin helps deliver some sanctioned (?) LNG to the UK (& he even witnesses it leave Russia) when the Forties pipeline goes down for a prolonged period I would imagine Theresa May takes keen note? Again, the UKCS is still a powerful contributor to our national energy security – the Forties shutdown highlighted this quite clearly.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other observations & some bewilderment - 

- House prices themselves - far more palatable for buyers than 2014 ? Yes you can will them lower but there is a balance with economic growth which is the key underlying driver to a City’s health. House prices have taken a hard, hard knock but have fallen slowly and steadily in most cases. I see no signs of a * major * crash other than some obscure examples cited in here. I do see signs of a major correction – that’s undeniable. So for some people I suppose……do you keep renting or try and wait for / second guess the bottom of the market ?

- New houses - how are they still selling / building ? Trade-in’s from the major builders seem to drive the buying and that leads to house price falling as they dump stock. Is that a bad thing aside from lining their pockets ? From what I hear the trade in prices aren’t too bad & you get stamp duty / carpets etc. Yes, you’re still buying a new build but there are many pro’s and cons. Anyway, plenty of people are still happy to buy new builds - I know at least 5+ myself that have bought in the last 18 months. The marketing men from Cala, Milne etc want you to buy bigger, better, more.

 - Decomm - will accelerate but it won’t be the cash cow that everyone thought.

 - Christmas Parties - I sense that budgets / people’s pockets have been relaxed to an extent & that collective mojo is returning. The town has certainly felt busier again of late.

  - The AWPR Bypass - bring it on in 2018 -  that should create some new twists in the housing market as people potentially consider a house away from the ‘burbs ? I will certainly travel further a field to access small business, recreation, tourist type events, venues etc as a consequence.

 - Local hotels - from those whom I have spoke to there is far less doom and gloom and more talk of positive vibes, more spending (certainly w.r.t to food and drink in hotels nearer town) and green shoots. Room rates depressed still but let’s face it they hit London prices at one point without the London benefits.

 - New Range Rover & Porsche Garages - how were they ever conceived in a post oil crash world ? I assume the building/investment was planned and funded long before the crash ? Someone, somewhere knows something we don’t about the longevity of Aberdeen and the ‘shire ? Or are they getting stung in the short term ?

 - Still lots of new car 17/67 plates around - doesn’t matter that they are leased, bought etc it matters that people are confident to buy/procure them. Yes, sales are down big time in ABZ but sales are down across the UK as a whole as people hold off due to Brexit plus rate rises etc.

 - Interest Rates - well they had to rise. They will likely go up 0.25 in 2018. Either way, there is still attractive deals to be had. A good LTV of course helps secure a good rate and that’s not an option for many.

 - Brexit …dragging onto too long and because there is no short sharp shock we seem to be adjusting to it. Consumer spending has not suffered too much although that may change.

 - Also seeing some new shops come in (JK Fine Foods & Mr Dun’s) / decent cafe’s / ventures (Food Story) / bars such as Grain and Grape (high end) and a new cafe in Peterculter. Two new trampoline parks too. That M&S at Dyce also.

- New Puregym at Cove and Rubislaw - positive signs again. Ikea - wonder how they are doing w.r.t sales and footfall. It’s a weird set up where you can only really collect or deliver after ordering online.

All signs from the retail sector that people are willing to invest long term. I will never understand the new Hampton hotel at Westhill and the newer hotels at ABZ airport though. Union Street is still grim though but we are all partly to blame as we spend elsewhere. Perhaps we shall see more independent shops coming in.

 - Then we have the new AECC coming - let’s hope they nail it right this time as a venue with decent transport links…

 - I noticed the traffic is heavier again in Aberdeen - another sign of an accelerating recovery ?

 Lastly …our man CashintheMattress hasn’t posted for a long time. I always valued his posts despite them being heavily biased but he always had a good insight (too good ?) into Aberdeen. He’s been a relative ghost in here lately which I found odd. Perhaps he’s on a monster renovation / DIY project. Perhaps he’s lost interest in ABZ ? I would like to understand his motivation for always having an apparent downer on Aberdeen though ? Equally his posts were pretty informative.

 I reckon ABZ is more resilient than people think - both in terms of people realising that Aberdeenshire is a bloody great place to live and also underestimating the fact that the O&G Co’s and the Gov. have woken up to the fact that the UKCS is still a very, very valuable resource with a stable fiscal regime & a favourable investment climate. ABZ has been hit hard by the crash but the upturn is kicking in. 2018 seems to be warming up nicely and 2019 should lead too far more activity, development and investment. Of course non O&G diversification has to happen far faster than it is already.

 Anyway, regardless of your views, political stance, lifestyle, commute, angle, perspective, income, etc - I hope you all have a productive 2018 & whatever plans you may have come to fruition. All the stats, charts & posts in here are all very well received so many thanks. Hopefully my more upbeat post will bring some balance and help people embrace ABZ further and even invest in it by buying, renting, upsizing, etc.

 

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