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reverand_cat

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About reverand_cat

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  1. I think, though can't say for sure that sometimes transactions get lost in listing on zoopla and I think some people also request for them to be removed? Failing zoopla you can usually search on Registers of Scotland. ros.gov.uk Go to the search houses prices. You'll then be able to find it by searching based on the street address and month of purchase (which you can work out from the questionnaire you mentioned) The ros site gives you a maximum return of 6 months at a time. So whittle it down from there.
  2. Latest ASPC report Q4 2016 out. https://www.aspc.co.uk/media/2541/Fourth Quarter.pdf
  3. What are we talking here? Two bed? 60m²? Outskirts of Aberdeen?
  4. Yes they need to sell anyway possible. Just the way it is advertised will p*** off customers. Not good for business built on trust. Anyway, yes prices are gonna go down. And loads more will get stung.
  5. Aberdeen now has "black friday" sales on property... http://banconhomes.com Was £230k now... £185k for 65m² Don't all go rushing at once tomorrow. What f***ing idiot thought up this promotion? Think how many customers that just bought they are going to p*** off. (Not that the prices won't go down anyway though but advertising it like this is stupid). Surely people getting stung like this will make them think twice about these new builds?
  6. Here is an example of how f***ed up the market is right now. 49 Cranford Road (around 170m²) http://www.andersonbain.co.uk/874-49-cranford-road-aberdeen-ab10-7nj-offers-over-434-995.html Bought Jun 2011 £469,073. (~£2740/m²) Cala exchange bought Sept 2016 £465,000 (~£2720/m²) Bought Nov 2016 £405,000 (~£2370/m²) 8 Annfield Terrace (around 120m²) http://www.blackadders.co.uk/property-details?mode=Details&propertyID=20036 Bought Sept 2013 £367,500 (~£3062/m²) Bought Nov 2016 £375,168 (~£3126/m²) This sort of thing is repeated right across the sale value listings. The spread in exchange values is pretty huge. The Cranford Road house would have been going for £3000/m² plus from 2013 onwards. And yet look at that spread in values. Something isn't right, some are buying in at bad values. There is so little transaction in this market that we are not getting efficient and proper pricing.
  7. IMO yes, the value of a house out with a bubble is intrinsically linked to its rental values and taxes etc. So not entirely straightforward, however the real "value" of an Aberdeen property is probably 30-40% down on peak depending on area and condition etc. Some round here will probably say 50%, 60% and more. But I think looking at reasonable rental yield etc buying a house at 30% below peak would be reasonable. You might lose money, but you probably won't lose your shirt at that value and you'll have a house or flat you can be happy with. Around and under £2000 per sqm is probably what would be the fair value.
  8. But with rental values dropping by over 30% and an increased risk of vacancy periods why would they buy in at current values? If they want that pension yield they will look to other cities. I bet there are very few landlords buying in right now.
  9. Been looking at general rental prices again. Looks like they are sliding further into new lows. £500 for a reasonable two bed flat in a decent area isn't uncommon now. Comparing this to Glasgow's current rental market, it looks like Aberdeen is now drfinitely cheaper (apart from the really bad areas of Glasgow, but that's a bit different...) How long now till house prices reflect this??? Aberdeen lower average house price now would be the 'rational' value. Something many people have forgotten and bears repeating, Aberdeen was on average cheaper than Glasgow until around 2004. This is just a reversion, 30%+ down is ENTIRELY rational. People up here don't believe it, I keep on hearing "it's bottoming out", "green shoots of recovery". Look at the rental market FFS.
  10. There seems to be very few properties coming onto ASPC every day now. The ones that do come on a lot seem to be from the estates of deceased. This is entirely expected I guess, many people simply do not want to sell now as they know they won't get "what it's worth". They could be waiting a very long time of course... Otherwise, looking at what IS selling. Volumes are getting worse every month. October was bad... November seems even worse. If your house is over £300k (3bed detached and more category) it seems very few are selling. What is selling is either stuff that was bought over a decade ago, and the occasional recent buy, thought they are selling at a loss. The prices they are selling at in this category look to vary from about 2006 prices to 2008 prices. And yes a lot selling don't have a prior listing on RoS which implies they are old family homes bought pre 90s. With regards to sub £300k category this is where it gets weirder. Some are still selling at close to what would be 2014 prices (mad I know... But there you go), it would seem some people as long as they can get the mortgage are still willing to pay the sticker value. The vast majority are probably averaging around 2011/2012 prices which is before Aberdeen really went crazy again. Some are going below, again some above. I suspect that eventually this collapse of the upper end of housing market will filter down more noticeably in the statistics. Whether you can sell your sub £300k flat / house at the values above though seems to be luck. There are lots sitting that don't get nibbles but I've also heard of people in this category selling for offers over within a week. Madness but then there you go... Also it looks like new build sales are collapsing too around end of Q3 this year. Overall btw Q4 statistics this year will be dire and grim and I suspect will put an end to some of the continued madness in the sub £300k bracket. Repossessions coming online in greater numbers now too.
  11. ASPC Q3 out... -9.8% annualised drop... Looks like the bubble has finally burst, and that graph doesn't look like "froth off the top", it looks like the start of a full on crash. Don't you think? https://www.aspc.co.uk/media/77219/third-quarter-2016.pdf This is going to be painful.
  12. Another local estate agent... Don't sell now! http://www.stonehouseproperty.co.uk/news/thinking-of-selling-5-reasons-why-you-shouldn-t (...wait till the value drops even further!)
  13. I think it was with regards to pricing. Most people don't give much thought to the volumes traded, they only care about the ££££.
  14. Absolutely, this is the crux of it. Aberdeen will never be what it was based just on maintaining current platforms and extracting oil. That's not how the money flowed to the people who lived her during the last boom. The only thing that will cause boom is if there is expenditure on new projects. And as we see the budget for that is now in the low millions... As opposed to the billions it was. It's over, it's a new reality. People are burying their heads in the sand.
  15. Read in the local magazine "Trend Magazine", there was article from agent from local estate agent Simpson & Marwick. Not exact quote but he basically said "the market has been challenging, but I am convinced it has bottomed out and should pick up in 2017". Criminal misinformation. Will the job situation get any better? It probably won't in 2017. Are rents increasing? No. Is there a likelihood that foreclosures may start to filter through in greater numbers? Yes, probably. So why the ******, will it have bottomed out? Famous last words.
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