What's London's Future?

[silver surfer]

Can anyone point to objective evidence from past busts, or from overseas, that gives a clue as to what London could expect if the rest of the country sees falling property prices?

[Casual Observer]

Can anyone point to objective evidence from past busts, or from overseas, that gives a clue as to what London could expect if the rest of the country sees falling property prices?

Dopn't forget that London prices didn't rise hardly at all between 2001 and 2005. They're just catching up - they can stop rising again.

[cells]

Remember the majority of people will be unaffected by house prices crashing.

those that rent, those that own their property outright, those on fixed rate mortgages, those that don’t MEW are unaffected! which is probably at lest 80% of the population

Construction in this country will not suffer much since we did not have a construction boom "thanks" to tight planning permission

Those people that MEW in the past and hope to do so in the future more than likely spent the money on another home, or cars (not uk made), or foreign holidays. none of those things benefit the uk economy to any significant degree.

i dont think it will be that bad tbh

[Sinking Feeling]

Can anyone point to objective evidence from past busts, or from overseas, that gives a clue as to what London could expect if the rest of the country sees falling property prices?

Ricardo's Law!

Although really it only explains why average prices are higher in London and decrease with distance.

I personally think it would be highly unlikely because markets have a habit of pulling everything else in proximity down with them!

[PropertyGuru]

I think that we have all basically agreed that London is far from immune, and will probably crash WORSE than the rest of the UK, EXCEPT for a 20 yard stretch either side of 'Clitoris Van Dongs' house.

[since the beginning]

Dopn't forget that London prices didn't rise hardly at all between 2001 and 2005. They're just catching up - they can stop rising again.

Not true.

[Fancypants]

I think that we have all basically agreed that London is far from immune, and will probably crash WORSE than the rest of the UK, EXCEPT for a 20 yard stretch either side of 'Clitoris Van Dongs' house.

Prime London baby, Prime London. To know it is to love it

[DabHand]

Can anyone point to objective evidence from past busts, or from overseas, that gives a clue as to what London could expect if the rest of the country sees falling property prices?

We build a damn round it and blow up the thames barrier.

[bear call spread]

I think that we have all basically agreed that London is far from immune, and will probably crash WORSE than the rest of the UK

lol - speak for yourself.

London will be fine

[silver surfer]

London will be fine

Why? What unique forces would sustain London prices if the rest of the UK was in decline?

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

Why? What unique forces would sustain London prices if the rest of the UK was in decline?

I dunno, could be something to do with it being the world's financial centre or something

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

I think that we have all basically agreed that London is far from immune, and will probably crash WORSE than the rest of the UK

That's right, that 115K 1-bed Glasgow crack den someone posted here the other day will drop to, what, maybe 90K, whereas the 175K garden flat in leafy North London will fall to 75K.

You're so out of touch it's hilarious.

[REP013]

Cletus VanDamme Posted Today, 04:58 PM

QUOTE(silver surfer @ Apr 29 2007, 04:30 PM) *

Why? What unique forces would sustain London prices if the rest of the UK was in decline?

I dunno, could be something to do with it being the world's financial centre or something

Thought that was moving to India?

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

Thought that was moving to India?

No that's just all our banking details.

Had a call from someone from an Indian call centre the other day. I asked him to give me evidence that we was in fact a representative of the credit card company. He started to reel off a whole bunch of my personal and financial information as confirmation.

Rather than reassure me, it actually made me very nervous.

[thecrashingisles]

That's right, that 115K 1-bed Glasgow crack den someone posted here the other day will drop to, what, maybe 90K, whereas the 175K garden flat in leafy North London will fall to 75K.

You're so out of touch it's hilarious.

You're calling someone out of touch and your example garden flat in leafy North London is 175k pre-crash!! 400k would be more realistic...

[Guest Cletus VanDamme]

You're calling someone out of touch and your example garden flat in leafy North London is 175k pre-crash!! 400k would be more realistic...

Funny, my sister in law has just bought such a flat at that price near Palmers Green. They're there if you look for them.

[Bearfacts]

Speaking as someone who owned a flat in London in the 80's 90's if history repeats itself then prices in London will tank - probably worse than the rest of the UK. Then as now the city saw itself as the financial centre of the world. Then as now there was rampant greed and a belief that London was special and immune from problems in the rest of the world. The trouble with London is that it has sod all to offer except finanacial services which do well in times of boom but when the cycle turns as it always has done then its the first to be hit and it gets hit hard. afterall who needs investment analysts when you dont have a job or are struggling just to pay the mortgage ? Who will need all those bankers when the borrowing has to stop ?

City people are arrogant and out of touch - remember pride comes before a fall.

[Ash4781]

What's the London economy dominated by?

Tourism, finance and banking?

[b0rk]

Construction in this country will not suffer much since we did not have a construction boom "thanks" to tight planning permission

Your joking right? the construction industry has absolutely boomed in the last 5 years primarily driven by commercial construction (including commercial home buillding), rather than basic house building. Much of the commercial construction boom is fuelled by an unholy trinity of commercial property values (and rents), BTL demand and PFI. The PFI crutch will dramatically reduce over the next few years as the government run out of schools & hospitals to replace, flat/apartment building will also reduce should the housing market turn bear. That would just leave commercial property inflation.. well I'll leave the rest to your imagination...

[Fairies Wear Boots]

Your joking right? the construction industry has absolutely boomed in the last 5 years primarily driven by commercial construction (including commercial home buillding), rather than basic house building. Much of the commercial construction boom is fuelled by an unholy trinity of commercial property values (and rents), BTL demand and PFI. The PFI crutch will dramatically reduce over the next few years as the government run out of schools & hospitals to replace, flat/apartment building will also reduce should the housing market turn bear. That would just leave commercial property inflation.. well I'll leave the rest to your imagination...

Maybe, there has been a lot of houses built, but hasn't there also been a greater increase in people wanting them? With net immigration?

[cells]

Your joking right? the construction industry has absolutely boomed in the last 5 years primarily driven by commercial construction (including commercial home buillding), rather than basic house building. Much of the commercial construction boom is fuelled by an unholy trinity of commercial property values (and rents), BTL demand and PFI. The PFI crutch will dramatically reduce over the next few years as the government run out of schools & hospitals to replace, flat/apartment building will also reduce should the housing market turn bear. That would just leave commercial property inflation.. well I'll leave the rest to your imagination...

http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/stats/tot...C08DD4C3FBF2FED

we built more new homes in 1995 (apparently the bottom of our current boom) than we did in 2005!

builders will build homes as long as the cost of the final product is equal to or greater than cost of labour + materials. the land prices change not the bricks and mortar

[MarkG]

we built more new homes in 1995 (apparently the bottom of our current boom) than we did in 2005!

Strange if it's true, because many people I know who work in construction were either out of work or only working part-time in 1995, but they're working all hours today. At least one of them was out of work for most of the last crash, and he was highly skilled, not some bloke lugging bricks around for low wages.

Does the 'new homes' number include all the people buying up old houses and turning them into flats, for example?

Edited April 30, 2007 by MarkG

[b0rk]

I wasn't arguing that the construction of dwellings had boomed it hasn't rather that the general construction industry has boomed driven by commercial property and PFI. e.g. retail, leisure, offices, industrial & warehouse, hospitals and schools.

In ten years the typical value of commercial property has doubled with larger gains seen out of commercial property in prime locations, yet rents haven't kept pace.

FYI in 95/96 private enterprise completed 156,696 new dwellings yet in 04/05 183,925 where completed, data btw is from the same source as the in2perspective graph.

However the construction type shifted from a 85/15 split between houses and flats to a 55/45 split.

http://www.communities.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1505221

Edited April 30, 2007 by b0rk

[cells]

Strange if it's true, because many people I know who work in construction were either out of work or only working part-time in 1995, but they're working all hours today. At least one of them was out of work for most of the last crash, and he was highly skilled, not some bloke lugging bricks around for low wages.

Does the 'new homes' number include all the people buying up old houses and turning them into flats, for example?

I think those figures include all new builds. So if you destroy a 3bed family home to build 2x one bed flats that will be +2 homes added in that graph rather than one

but http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ has all the info you need, just the site is shit to find exactly what your looking for

builders might be getting more work for extensions / retiling / flooring / commercial sectors / new kitchens ect as people can MEW to pay for these things

interestingly enough we build about 200k homes pear year but destroy more than 100k!

Spanish are able to build some 800k homes a year, guess the British are retarded :angry:

[hankdd]

Remember the majority of people will be unaffected by house prices crashing.

those that rent, those that own their property outright, those on fixed rate mortgages, those that don’t MEW are unaffected! which is probably at lest 80% of the population

I can see a strong argument but what % have not MEWed? less than 80% I suspect -a lot of the paper gains have been cashed in, converting opinion to debt to -loosely paraphrasing someones Avatar

Edited April 30, 2007 by hankdd