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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Fancypants

  1. That's not the point though - we are importing humans to try and compensate for our own declining fertility. When those humans settle here, their own native-born children behave just like the rest of us, and have children at a low rate. Meanwhile, fertility is coming down quite quickly all over the world, even in Bangladesh, Nigeria etc, and the pools of cheap labour start to shrink. Yes, there will be some disruption and more migration due to climate change - but its certain than global population will start to shrink much sooner than most people think. It's already baked in. And, in spite of the recent parochial trend in Western politics, capital is still global - money markets are international, even with Brexit we're a very very long way from autarchy. The course of future interest rates is largely a response to inflationary pressures worldwide, or - as we're starting to see - colossal deflationary pressures...
  2. Interest rates will never go up? I do wonder. Given that we are much closer to "peak human" than most people imagine, it might be that markets are just reacting to this demographic reality. Rates do seem to have some sort of relationship with demographics, being highest in recent times when the boomers were booming all over the world: starting their own families, supporting relatively few old people, paying tax, buying houses, developing careers etc etc. Inflation was the problem then. But for the foreseeable future, it's deflation. Once low birth rates set in (as they are all across the world) it's much harder to see where the prospects for "growth" (at least as we used to understand it) are. And so the value of the world's primary form of debt (i.e. money) turns down. The debt bubble is imploding - it began in 2008, when the aggregated wisdom of financial markets first clocked what I'm describing here: that was the tipping point. Now we have central banks shovelling ever-increasing quantities of fiat into the vortex, but none of that can turn round the underlying driver: demographics.
  3. Has he still not sold up to those wealthy overseas investors?
  4. went for a butcher's at three 4/5 bed family homes nearby (pretty grubby area of North London with lots of stuff rented out to immigrant families) last week, and all three were landlords scaling back. A small sample size, sure - but it felt a bit significant. And this seemed like the most obvious thread to share it on.
  5. Hey Bruce Good question. I fancy that we'll see some selling, for sure. In fact, given that so much of the money blowing the London bubble has come from the BRICS or petro-nations, I'd be astounded if there wasn't a significant downward pressure exerted by recent market moves. The Chinese share index is just one part of that - falling commodity prices will squash interest from Russia, Arabia and SE Asia too. In fact, I'm looking out of my office window at the moment wondering how much longer these cranes will be active.
  6. We're buying in zone 4, after years of resisting. But having just produced our third child, the lure of the extra bedroom and a garden got too much. I'm not desperate to leave London, but I'd do it tomorrow if a good job opportunity came up. The main thing that's stopping me is my wife, who is London born and bred, hence simply cannot contemplate leaving. So I have to play the long game there...
  7. Spurs also threatened to move to Enfield too, didn't they?
  8. Pardon me, I have been getting my postcodes mixed up. Mind you, I'm more interested in N9 these days.
  9. Spurs got some sweeteners to stay and to help them with the redevelopment though, didn't they? They were ready to bail on N15 and move to Stratford, which wouldn't have looked good post-riots and Olympics, especially as they planned to flatten the white elephant stadium that was already there. I agree that their remaining won't have massively uplifting effects on Tottenham (see also Beswick), but if they'd left it would probably have had negative effects
  10. Not too far away there is the Meridian Water development just getting underway, with the attendant improvement in rail services from Angel Road southwards. What with TfL taking over some of the other lines nearby, Crossrail2 in the offing, and even Ponders End in line for "regeneration" I'd say there is a clear direction of travel for the Lee Valley. Of course, that's not to say that global macroeconomic conditions or political upheaval might not get in the way.
  11. Thanks. Most of the coverage I have seen so far has been pretty vague, with just a generic reference to "the Overground". I suppose there's still a bit to be done on getting the oribital routes up to scratch, never mind the ones they haven't even taken over yet.
  12. I wonder if the overground will include the lines that tfl are about to take over (from Liverpool Street out to Chingford, Enfield Town etc)
  13. Maybe. We have 6 years to figure that one out though, and a fair bit can change in that time.
  14. Interesting. I've recently bid on a place near Edmonton Green (two rejections). I used to fancy Leyton (and still do some of the stuff up by Whipps) but the 2013-14 Indian Summer Bubble, the creeping gentrification, and the fact that I now have 3 kids under 5 (so we're on one salary) means it's quickly become too dull and expensive.
  15. started looking in a shabby bit of outer North London just before Christmas. Family is growing exponentially quickly, so having to take the plunge Very little of quality on around Christmas, only the autumn dregs that hadn't sold. This week has seen new stock start to come on in numbers, but priced optimistically by and large. Plenty of sales seem to be falling through, stuff coming back to the market, and sellers reacting to a lack of interest by going multi-agent and sometimes sticking their prices up... I'm beginning to think that we might need to wait a little while before some of them cotton on to what's going on.
  16. And it's the latter group who will have much more influence over the outcome of the next election. (my original remark is facetious, of course - I was predicting much the same a couple of years back)
  17. How's the Labour "cost of living crisis" strategy shaping up?
  18. this just in: credibility or UK govt bonds and Bank of England both downgraded from LMAO to LOL
  19. GDP up, living standards still falling. So the former measure is really quite unimportant except in revealing the growing detachment across UK society
  20. I spent the whole of last week on holiday in South Cornwall. We often go at the end of September, but it had been 2 years since our last visit. OK, the weather wasn't great this time, but there was a real (and to me, surprising) sense of gloom about the area - and this includes some of the hoity-toity coastal places that attract media luvvies and folk with dosh. I saw more empty units than before (well, there never used to be any at all), banks closing branches and the local independent retailers really struggling. OK, they'd suffered from a rotten summer after two mediocre ones, but obviously there's not a lot of skin in the game if a few weeks of rain can put a raft of businesses in trouble. I also heard stories of landlords jacking up rents, driving the occupants of many decades out, and then failing to fill the unit at the higher prices. Throw in the continued collapse of fish stocks and the moribund state of the traditional non-tourism economy and the sense of depression was all-pervasive. But it could just have been the weather. What a shame the correction is being drawn out so slowly, I'll be a retiree myself before I can finally afford a gaff down there at this rate.
  21. I'm a big fan of Owen Hatherley, although I'm sure his politics won't appeal to many on here. Any road, enjoy this:
  22. well, that would be one thing. But the suggestion here is that the traders took up the pitches on the basis of a "pledge" by the local council. If that is true, then our ire should be reserved for the latter (and the whole LOCOG/govt hype machine that stands behind them)
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