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Bearfacts

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  1. Basically because consumers who have depended on HPI to fund their spending will no longer be able to do so, I believe a large chunck of spending has been funded this way in recent years.
  2. Latest from Mrs BF - the EA she works for is very busy - with valuations - buyers have gone a bit quiet apparently. Looks like the next leg down is inevitable to me and I speak as a home owner. The only doubt I have, and its the doubt the caused me to buy a year ago, is that the banks and government know full well how disasterous any further falls in house prices would be for the wider economy and will do anything to prevent it, including allowing inflation to eat away at the national debt rather than see the market correct. You can already see the articles attempting to justify keeping IRs at almost zero inspite of high and persistent inflation ( Kaletsky has written two only this week ).
  3. Well - it's been nearly a year since I managed to beat my addiction to HPC and stopped posting so I thought it might be time to see if I can handle another short 'dose' with an update from the frontline. Mrs BF works in an EAs in the S.E so keeps me advised of activty as she sees it. For what it's worth Mrs BF reports that they are currently very busy with properties being sold quickly and at very close to the asking price. It may be worth mentioning that we live in an area that has just been linked to London by high speed trains so this may not be representative of the rest of the UK. I know this is not what you will want to hear but that is the situation as she reports it. Even though I bought this time last year, I share your dismay at the turn the market has taken - I have children who I want to be able to buy a home at a sensible price one day - I have no desire or interest in 'building' unearnt equity in my home and I fully expect in the fullness of time the market will correct and my home will be worth less than I paid for it but that correction looks like being 'kicked down the road' by the powers that be. It seems that the government / banks are prepared to do whatever it takes to keep the bubble inflated no matter what the costs or long term consequences. The UK economy is dependant on HPI as a vehicle for passing the costs of our living onto future generations and no politician has the cojones to admit this or take the action neccessary to change things. It has been my experience ( sometimes costly ) that people who have power - be they politicians , bankers or business men will do whatever it takes to protect their own interests regardless of rights or wrongs, the effects on others or long term consequences. This government in collusion with the banks has robbed the prudent to rescue the reckless and amazingly been applauded by some for doing so. As I have already said I still expect the correction to come but god knows when and I wouldn't discount the possibilty of the goverment and BOE letting inflation rip to get them out of the abyss.
  4. What really gets my goat is that this all happens without any debate in the house of commons or any debate even in the media. Darling just borrows 40BN more of our and our childrens future earnings and then chucks it to the bankers with barely a whimper of protest from the Great British people - un frickin believable. I truly hate the government they have commited the crime of the century - we have all been fleeced.
  5. You must be refering to the CPI / RPI figures ? Let me guess - they have bounced and are now heading up not the least because the price of oil has bounced and also due to QE. SO much for all that deflation bull shit. Bet the BOE will not up IRs though - they'll sit on their hands and let inflation rip claiming it would be irresponsible to increase rates during a recession. I think we're about to discover the next leg down.
  6. You must be refering to the CPI / RPI figures ? Let me guess - they have bounced and are now heading up not the least because the price of oil has bounced and also due to QE. SO much for all that deflation bull shit. Bet the BOE will not up IRs though - they'll sit on their hands and let inflation rip claiming it would be irresponsible to increase rates during a recession. I think we're about to discover the next leg down.
  7. Much to my amazement the government and BOE have proved themselves only too ready to debase our currency via zero interest rates and the printing of money in a desperate attempt to prop up the property market and by extension the banks and UK economy. They seem to have achieved their aim for now at least but I suspect they have merely succeeded in putting the day of reckoning off for a year or two at most. When the Tories take over next year I expect them to impose strict fiscal discipline, stop debasing the currency and start repaying debt. At this point life is going to get very uncomfortable for the over indebted who have been thrown a lifeline by Brown. HPC to resume next autumn. I say this as a property owner ( I bought in April - more a building site than a house ). I still want property prices to fall - I want my own children to be able to buy a property one day at a sensible price not at the insane inflated values we still have. I want speculators / bankers and all the scum who have profited out of ramping the housing market and ruining the UK economy to be wiped out. As a good illustration of how over inflated the UK market still is there is an ad in todays Times property supplement for a property in France in a nice region asking £500k, the same as my neighbours house ( 4 beds - no garden to speak of ). The French propery is a Chateau, set in 15 acres with its own chapel , stables and a seperate cottage. The chateau needs a bit of work but seems to have a floor space in excess of 6000 sq ft.
  8. You have hit the nail on the head. I had always factored into my considerations that the central banks and government would behave in a logical, responsible and moral manner with a view to long term economic stability whilst maintaining a policy of 'sound money'. They have of course done the complete opposite with a policy of printing money and slashing rates to zero and then throwing large piles of borrowed cash at the housing market, this unnerved me as I realised I had no idea what impact this might have on the economy/ housing market. Brown and Darling seem absolutley determined to do whatever it takes , however reckless, however immoral, however damaging to long term stabilty, however unfair to prop up the housing market and therby get re-elected. I hate the bastards more than ever. I may now be a homeowner ( well building site really ) but I want to see prices come down to sensible, fair and sustainable levels. I dont want my children treated as slave labour to pay for the un-earnt lifestyle of the boomer generation ( of which I am one - albeit a relatively young one !).
  9. See, I just can't give it up ! It occured to me belatedly that stating that we might lose a six figure sum might sound dramatic and might make it sound like we are buying in Mayfair but if you consider that according to the Halifax the average property was 'worth' approx £200k at the peak, then a 50% fall would mean that the average property would have 'lost' a six figure sum i.e £100,000. Now that I have cleared that up I really am going.
  10. Thanks for all your good wishes. I knew some of you would think I am being stupid buying now ( I have doubts myself ) but as I said there are factors other than money to be considered here. My personal circumstances are such that I have the time to work on this project -that might not be the case in 1 or 2 years time. House is, of course, not in Mayfair - it's on the Kent coast. 'Losing' a six figure sum would require falls at the extreme end of the scale - although I acknowledge it is entirely possible. The property is really very modest, perhaps this just indicates how absurd the property market is when you can lose or gain such huge sums on very ordinary properties. One thing I'm sure we can all agree on ( Ok perhaps not the speculators ) is that buying a property should not be such a huge gamble. The difference between buying at peak and / or at the bottom is enormous and can have a huge impact on people's lives i.e not having children because you can't afford the space / divorce because of the stress of paying a mortgage etc etc. We need to put an end to the boom and bust of the property market - including house prices in the CPI measure would probablty do it but I expect the politicians and bankers will never let it happen as they all get filthy rich during the boom years. As I said I will pop back occasionally with updates as and when I have anything useful to add to the debate. This site is fantastic - educational and a little rebellious / revolutionary - allowing the masses to get to the real facts and fight the media VI spin machine but it is also more than a little addictive ( hell - I am back on today ! ) - I need to go 'cold turkey' for a while but as Arnie said - I will be back. Good luck to you all.
  11. Just in case anyone is interested I was persuaded to buy a house yesterday by Mrs BF. Now before you start giving me a hard time let me explain that: 1. We have just purchased ( well offer accepted ) a dilapidated two bed bungalow. This is, for us, a self build project. I really wanted a virgin site but even now a good one where you want it, is hard to come by so we've settled for sticking another floor on a bungalow. Building yourself works out a whole lot cheaper than buying 'ready made.' The site is almost ideal for our needs / wants - they don't come up very often. 2. We did negotiate 16% off the asking. 3. We are lucky enough that we can afford it without any borrowing. 4. Our children are growing up fast and I wanted to them to have bedrooms that they can decorate themselves and a dog. 5. I want to stay married to Mrs BF ! 6. I accept that we will probably loose money on this ( possibly a six figure sum ) but somethings are more important than money. 7. I have been biding my time for 5 years now and I'm not getting any younger. 8. For what its worth I am still convinced prices have a way to go - probably another 20-30%. I accept/ expect that we will take a hit. What's happening now is a suckers rally - I have no doubt about that. 9. Mrs BF ( works in local EAs) tells me that they are begining to put deals together and sales are being made albeit at much reduced prices. Buyers are almost exclusively cash buyers. 10. Where we are prices have come down 20-30% - no question. Some vendors are in denial but their properties stick out like sore thumbs and just sit in the agents windows gathering dust. Thank you to all I have had the pleasure of 'conversing' with over the years. I have learnt a huge amount from the posters on this site and you all ( well the bears anyway ) have been vindicated. To the speculators and rampers I say get a life / real job - do something worthwhile and productive , stop sponging off the young and generations to come. To young potential FTBs I say hang on in there - although we might experience a bit of a pause due to freakishly low interest rates, printing of money and a suckers rally - your time will come - interest rates are going one way only, so too taxes and unemployment. Moving sharply in the opposite direction will be disposasble incomes and house prices. Although I post infrequently I have read this site virtually every day for the last 5 years, so now I think I need to give it a break. I will be back with updates from Mrs BF when / if I have anything interesting to report. Good luck to you all .............
  12. You should remember that the posters on this site were just about the only ones predicting the crash against all popular conceptions and media spin. We were right. One months figures from NW make stuff all difference - prices 'rose' 18 times in the last crash but fell overall significantly. I find the Nationwide figures literally unbelievable - how can prices possibly rise in a recession - with transactions significantly lower than last years when prices were tanking ? I'll put this down to a statistical blip + pressure from DowningSt to show something 'positive' + bull trap. Normal service to be resumed next month and probably next week when the Halifax data comes out. I see you are a speculator - may you roast in hell you parasitical scumbag. I will dance with joy as you sink in negative equity. Rememebr interest rates are going only one way - up along with taxes and unemployment - property prices have only started the long overedue correction.
  13. Seems the city has learnt nothing - how depressing. No wonder you all get paid so well !
  14. Was it £35K ? - what would that buy in the UK ? A lock up garage ? Assuming its outside of London of course. Yet more evidence of how insane UK property prices still are. Good on yer 'มร หล
  15. Like others on this thread I am lucky enough to have the cash. Would I buy now ? Yes - but only if I can get at least 20% off the asking price and a good 30% off peak prices. Even then I would expect to take a hit. I believe prices may well fall by 50% from peak. I am prepared to take the hit because I have young children who want a home where they can have a dog and can decorate their rooms the way they want. We've been in rented for 5 years now. I also want to remain married. So there are bigger issues than cold hard cash to consider. I am also intending/ hoping to place a bet on further price falls in a bid to offset some potential losses. We have actually started looking at a few places - even put an offer in one one - we offered 20% below the asking, they said they would accept 15% off - so we said thanks but no thanks and goodbye. Looked at another today - they've dropped the price by 15% from peak. We're seeing plenty of properties where reality has set in and the asking prices are coming down - still a long way to go though. Mrs BF ( works in an EAs ) says vensdors are becoming more realistic and accepting offers 20-30% below peak.
  16. Just a thought and I'm probably stating the bleedin obvious but we are just 9 days away from elections - I would expect Brown and his posse to be using their influence to the max to try and generate some 'positive' headlines about the economy. Infact I suspect they have already started - IMF report could have been written by Labour spinners. Yesterdays ludicrous piece in the NOTW and Kaletsky on the radio today. Expect 9 days of ill researched and illogical opinion and dodgy stats to grind your teeth to.
  17. The question you have to ask yourself is ' why would any business give money away ?'. If they honestly believe their own figures they would do it themselves. How stupid can people be ? -- ooh look this builder wants to give me money - yes of course they do - now be a good boy and take the medicine.
  18. You're too kind - its good to know ones efforts are not entirely wasted. Do I get a prize ? What should it be ? A subscription to Assetz in house magazine ? Shares in Phil Spencer's property company ? A night out with Rosie Millard / Krusty ? A free seminar with Inside Track ? A night out with Merryn the HPC pin up girl - now there's a prize worth having ! Seriously though the stupdidity out there is begining to scare me - if we, as a nation, are not prepared to see that debt and inflation do not equal real prosperity and that we need to repay the debt instead of robbing our children and the generations to come, that we need to build a productive economy, then we are very seriously screwed. It really could be time to retreat to the hills with a loaded shotgun and tins on beans. P.S I am aware that inside Track and Mr Spencer's co went bust.
  19. The single most depressing aspect of this article is that the first and almost only element of our economy that is mentioned to suggest that we are coming out of a recession is the housing market. How seriously f**cked is our economy and our way of thinking when we honestly believe that the housing market is the economy ? No mention of any increases in productivity or big orders won for our goods or services. No innovations , no new products, no jobs created - just more people taking on more debt and the hope of house price inflation. It does truly seem that some people, and sadly I include our politicians and financiers in this, have learnt nothing in the last 18 months. They seem to believe we had a perfectly functioning business model until those beastly and reckless Americans messed things up for us with their sub prime. They honestly seem to belive that if we can just kick another burst of HPI off everything will be alright - I dont know whether to laugh or cry. As to the comment that rates wont rise until the bank / government decides - I think you'll find that those decisions will be taken out of their incompetent and crooked hands by market forces.
  20. I think this article clears up the confusion http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/prope...fall-14677.aspx - if you take out the last mega bubble the av house price has been about 4.1 x the AVERAGE SALARY ( not the average full time male salary ) so av house price should be more like £100K. Just another 33% to go then.
  21. I think you are rather missing the point - the long term trend average house price to average income was 3.5 before the latest mega bubble skewed the trend upwards to about 4. Whether people rent or not and where pensioners live is neither here nor there.
  22. It was 3.5 x avergae income before the latest insane mega bubble. Currently, I think the trend is about 4 x av income - it's been skewed by said bubble.
  23. Please be more carful - I nevre mistopye ! It's six of the best for you.
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