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House Price Crash Forum


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About b0rk

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    HPC Regular
  1. Okay, take a look at J sainsbury plc they generated £320m profit from £17bn in sales or 1.8% margin and have £2bn a CMBS, 25% gearing M&S £821m profit, £9.02bn turnover (9% margin), £3bn debt, £1.9bn assets, 157% gearing JLP £320m profit, £6.05bn turnover (5% margin), £357m debt, 22% gearing Tesco £2.1bn profit , £51bn turnover (4% margin), £6bn debt, 34% gearing The key to survival is in a recession is to be cash generative and lightly geared. M&S I see as being over geared and highly vulnerable to margin erosion or simple sales decline (likely and currently occurring). Sainsbury's to margin erosion (probable i.e tesco vs adsa price war). JLP to complete collapse of the high street (unlikely). They are the lowest geared major department store. Tesco to urm Armageddon? (ain't gonna happen).
  2. The thing about M&S food is they do not actually make any of it in-house everything is subcontracted to the major food product producers, so a dish sold in M&S could just as easily turn up in Asda, Tesco or Aldi... at a lower price. John Lewis Partnership
  3. Coming to gordonomics Britain soon, he too can save the domestic car industry even if it is owned by the Germans, Indians and Japanese.
  4. Did they ever really leave the critical list after nearly going down in 2004? WHSmith where a major customer of EUK (woolworths distribution) for music, games and dvd.
  5. Taking a PCP without a GMFV (Guaranteed Minimum Future Value) is just madness or entering into a one where you can't just hand the keys back at maturity. Dailymail are just upto their usual scaremongering, I wouldn't be at all surprised if their readership predominately use cash or bank loans to pay for cars and do not understand how a PCP works. If the car is worth less than the GMFV just hand it back.
  6. I do not see why SIG would want to allow a small subsidiary to go broke. IMO too many awkward questions would be asked about the financial strength of the parent.
  7. Part of reason we are seeing a "crash" in house prices is exactly because HPI has outstripped general inflation. You can only inflate a debt bubble so far before the populous becomes unwilling or unable to continue blowing.
  8. 2 year recession means brown will have to call an election before his predicted recovery starts. 6th May 2010 it is then. Regarding debt I wouldn't be at all surprised for it to exceed £2T
  9. The retail world doesn't generally buy direct from the manufacturer but via distributors. Zavvi basically fell over because EUK there distributor fell over and manufacturers didn't want to deal directly with them. I don't see the distribution industry wishing to take the pain and IMO retailers will be left holding the baby so to speak. The weak state of retailers ignoring currency movements increases the cost of goods as distributors pay higher premiums for credit insurance or demand increased payment frequencies.
  10. For tracking they do not need to know the content only the urn visited. Static analysis and statefull packet inspection can reveal this, both activities are computationally cheap these days. http://sysd.org/stas/node/220 neatly illustrates the fallacy of https/ssl as a magic bullet solution.
  11. +1, There is I suspect some nugget of truth in that. Interest rates maybe at the lowest they have been in recent history having reached this point in only 6 months, there is no reason why rates could not rise as fast in future.
  12. In the new economy debt is wealth or income and that change in mindset is when it became acceptable. The post 2001 period of artificially low interest rates probably marked the tipping point.
  13. 20k off a 80k house would be 25% which at the time would have been the end of the world. You'd need falls of circa 55k generate 25% off peak prices in that area now.
  14. Dead cat bounce? In almost every market correction there comes a point when prices rise without obvious reason. The previous quarters job losses and jobs still the shed shouldn't logically see an increase in market volumes from normal rather than distressed sellers until at least q4 09 / q1 2010.
  15. yeah I'd guessed you where thinking very short term and I have too seen this, I do still suspect it is a last gasp attempt to appear very successful in the vain hope it will help secure future work. If you where to visit a business where the cars were all older (or low value) and the office full of empty desks would you really want to place a order/contract with them?
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