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House Price Crash Forum


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About Fancypants

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    HPC Militant Loyalist

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    Northern Monkey gone native in London - potential STB
  1. That's not the point though - we are importing humans to try and compensate for our own declining fertility. When those humans settle here, their own native-born children behave just like the rest of us, and have children at a low rate. Meanwhile, fertility is coming down quite quickly all over the world, even in Bangladesh, Nigeria etc, and the pools of cheap labour start to shrink. Yes, there will be some disruption and more migration due to climate change - but its certain than global population will start to shrink much sooner than most people think. It's already baked in. And, in spite of the recent parochial trend in Western politics, capital is still global - money markets are international, even with Brexit we're a very very long way from autarchy. The course of future interest rates is largely a response to inflationary pressures worldwide, or - as we're starting to see - colossal deflationary pressures...
  2. Interest rates will never go up? I do wonder. Given that we are much closer to "peak human" than most people imagine, it might be that markets are just reacting to this demographic reality. Rates do seem to have some sort of relationship with demographics, being highest in recent times when the boomers were booming all over the world: starting their own families, supporting relatively few old people, paying tax, buying houses, developing careers etc etc. Inflation was the problem then. But for the foreseeable future, it's deflation. Once low birth rates set in (as they are all across the world) it's much harder to see where the prospects for "growth" (at least as we used to understand it) are. And so the value of the world's primary form of debt (i.e. money) turns down. The debt bubble is imploding - it began in 2008, when the aggregated wisdom of financial markets first clocked what I'm describing here: that was the tipping point. Now we have central banks shovelling ever-increasing quantities of fiat into the vortex, but none of that can turn round the underlying driver: demographics.
  3. Has he still not sold up to those wealthy overseas investors?
  4. went for a butcher's at three 4/5 bed family homes nearby (pretty grubby area of North London with lots of stuff rented out to immigrant families) last week, and all three were landlords scaling back. A small sample size, sure - but it felt a bit significant. And this seemed like the most obvious thread to share it on.
  5. Hey Bruce Good question. I fancy that we'll see some selling, for sure. In fact, given that so much of the money blowing the London bubble has come from the BRICS or petro-nations, I'd be astounded if there wasn't a significant downward pressure exerted by recent market moves. The Chinese share index is just one part of that - falling commodity prices will squash interest from Russia, Arabia and SE Asia too. In fact, I'm looking out of my office window at the moment wondering how much longer these cranes will be active.
  6. We're buying in zone 4, after years of resisting. But having just produced our third child, the lure of the extra bedroom and a garden got too much. I'm not desperate to leave London, but I'd do it tomorrow if a good job opportunity came up. The main thing that's stopping me is my wife, who is London born and bred, hence simply cannot contemplate leaving. So I have to play the long game there...
  7. Spurs also threatened to move to Enfield too, didn't they?
  8. Pardon me, I have been getting my postcodes mixed up. Mind you, I'm more interested in N9 these days.
  9. Spurs got some sweeteners to stay and to help them with the redevelopment though, didn't they? They were ready to bail on N15 and move to Stratford, which wouldn't have looked good post-riots and Olympics, especially as they planned to flatten the white elephant stadium that was already there. I agree that their remaining won't have massively uplifting effects on Tottenham (see also Beswick), but if they'd left it would probably have had negative effects
  10. Not too far away there is the Meridian Water development just getting underway, with the attendant improvement in rail services from Angel Road southwards. What with TfL taking over some of the other lines nearby, Crossrail2 in the offing, and even Ponders End in line for "regeneration" I'd say there is a clear direction of travel for the Lee Valley. Of course, that's not to say that global macroeconomic conditions or political upheaval might not get in the way.
  11. Thanks. Most of the coverage I have seen so far has been pretty vague, with just a generic reference to "the Overground". I suppose there's still a bit to be done on getting the oribital routes up to scratch, never mind the ones they haven't even taken over yet.
  12. I wonder if the overground will include the lines that tfl are about to take over (from Liverpool Street out to Chingford, Enfield Town etc)
  13. Maybe. We have 6 years to figure that one out though, and a fair bit can change in that time.
  14. Interesting. I've recently bid on a place near Edmonton Green (two rejections). I used to fancy Leyton (and still do some of the stuff up by Whipps) but the 2013-14 Indian Summer Bubble, the creeping gentrification, and the fact that I now have 3 kids under 5 (so we're on one salary) means it's quickly become too dull and expensive.
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