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House Price Crash Forum

cells

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  1. Interestingly back in 2007 you would pay about 6% on a 15 year fixed and say $300,000 for a house. Now you pay 3.14% and $200,000 for the same house. So if you bought in 2007 you will be paying $2575 every month for 15 years And if you bought today you would be paying $1410 So you are more than a thousand dollars in pocket better off after the crash PER MONTH for 15 years.
  2. Why would that mean they have cheaper mortgages? If anything that risk would make them more expensive
  3. Average rate on 30-year fixed mortgage down to record 3.87 pct.; 15-year falls to 3.14 pct http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/average-rate-on-30-year-fixed-mortgage-down-to-record-387-pct-15-year-falls-to-314-pct/2012/02/02/gIQAgaYOkQ_story.html http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2012/0208/Mortgage-rates-How-low-can-they-go Why are we paying so much more when both UK and USA government debt is trading at similar levels? 3.14% fixed for 15 years sounds very good and I suspect would make the biggest bear think about buying. Closest we have is 4.99% fixed for 10 years (whi
  4. Firstly there is plenty of space very close to London which would be very suitable for building homes and the related infrastructure. Within a 3 minute drive of London there is enough land to build 6.4 million homes at 20 an acre which is enough to house 15 to 20 million people. Remember that is JUST WITHIN A THREE MINUTE DRIVE OF THE M25!!! So everyone, PLEASE please please stop saying there isn’t enough space or land!! As for all the other problems you state they come around EXACTLY BECUASE of planning rules. You put an artificial limit on the size of a city and allow the population to i
  5. Housing has become a financial instrument, an investment with a yield Most parts of the country are yielding around 5-6% with prime central London a lot less but everywhere else that rule holds So if you want housing prices to be cheaper you either need other investments to yeild more than housing (another way of saying interest rates need to rise) or you need rents to fall. To that end, everywhere but especially in London the discussion should no longer be prices but rent. What rents do is what prices will do And im sad to say, with 470,000 extra people in the country (last years increase
  6. Lots of people never get on the merry go round In a very simplistic world gandma dies aged 75 and passes the house onto grandson aged 25. The house has been paid off generations ago and neither grandma ever paid a mortgage nor will grandson aged 25. Very simplistic but property wealth is distributed amounts living airs at death. More than half the houses in the country are either owned outright or with a very small mortgage. So more than half the population never joined the ponzi and never will. About a quarter are in council homes or on housing benefits and never feel the market forces S
  7. They probably don't see this new demand that would warrant investing billions Plus were did they get this figure of 750B in cash savings at companies. Near enough all the company accounts I have gone through show big debts.
  8. They may be more concerned about a country converting their euro holdings to some new currency which would be worth much less and they couldn't do anything about it If they put it into the UK there is no risk of that. Plus you would much rather have your cash in a big bank with lots of depositors as in the event that the shit hit the fan the government is more likely to back it up What would be fun is if a big cash generating company like say Apple or Microsoft or Google says that they are getting rid of their cash and buying physical gold and putting it in a safe they own in various nation
  9. IMO prices are now linked to the rent you can extract from the house for the vast majority of the country. So increasing the deposit required or salery multiple caps will not have a huge impact. There are lots of pension funds, rich companies, rich individuals, and other entities who would love to purchase houses at £100k becuase then the yeild would be over 10% inflation linked! which is FAR larger yeild than the other big assets of government debt and stocks. IMO just charge 2% of the pricec of the house per year as a tax payable by the owner. Scrap council tax and put the 0% income tax
  10. It was a general response you cheer leader you dont need to use veg oil directly, you could for instance displace heating oil in homes with veg oil and use the heating oil for diesel. And there are lots of homes heated with oil in the world. Also lots of power stations around the world but esp Japan and Saudi were oil is burnt which could be displaced by coal/gas/nuclear/wood/veg oil whatever
  11. the government needs to build 200,000 council homes like it did for decaades Each council house built saves the government over £400,000 in rent payments to private landlords (its actually over £3m over 50 years but that works out to about £400k in todays money)
  12. Manufacturing can pay very good wages because wages are a tiny fraction of the final goods price. It of course depends on what you are making but the 3 manufacturers I have worked for all had labour costs of around 10% and they all also had fairly good pay and terms like final salary pensions and retirement at 60 So the same company located in a country with one third the wages could only cut costs 6% and that is assuming that all else is equal. If that said 3rd or 2nd world country has shit infrastructure or more costly energy/transport/security whatever you will quickly eat into that modes
  13. I can’t say I am that concerned about oil there are many things which kick in to add supply and many things which kick in to reduce demand as prices increase. Also many things will happen no matter what the oil price is such as older cars getting scrapped and replaced by the new very efficient diesels/petrol. Also the west could take a very logical view and ban or heavily tax polluting cars at the point of manufacture. For instance it would be very easy for the west and china to only allow the most efficient cars to be produced. Say 80g/km or less And since we scrap about 50 million cars a
  14. It is all ******** my friend You grow an apple in the UK and it shows up as $1 to your manufacturing base You grow an apple in china and it shows up as 10 cents to your manufacturing base the same apple, same size, same taste, same everything but we "manufactured" 10x more The UK maybe is not declining much in manufacturing (IMO it is) but what concerns most is what they see looking down the line. That is relative to other countries we are sinking more and more. And TRUST ME in manufacturing once you lose the base it is VERY hard to get it back. Even if you become just as competitive as ch
  15. I am not sure that France or Italy manufacture much more than us but vs Germany we suck because we are greedy I used to work for one company who had a view that it was a bad idea if it didn’t pay back in less than 2 years. So got a great idea that pays back in 3 years? ****** off Of course that might be ok for software or the service sector but its not how you maintain a manufacturing business were you might need to invest for 10-20 years payback times. The SAME company operating in Germany had a rule that was closer to 10 year payback for investments. Plus having manufacturers helps your
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