jiltedjen Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 So bubble burst and the end of American outperformance for the next decade. historically America switches place between outperforming the rest of the world, then for the next decade the rest out the world out performs America. S&P500 has been running white hot as the end stage bubble rolls over into collapse, dragging overpriced P/E ratio American stocks down with it. too long everyone has been betting on S&P500 and the magnificent seven. It’s been a heck of a study into horrendous recency bias, and momentum investing. People have changed investment tactics recently to gain exposure to the S&P500 super late into the game, pensions have been moved. and now finally the bubble is bursting. removing the tech stocks and world markets have been stagnant, reflecting the stagnant economy. Now people will be nursing horrible 30-40% losses without any growth to recoup them. we have even had UK companies talking about moving indices to America to get some of that tasty overpriced hype, just as the arse falls out of it. Flight to safety will happen soon, and into safer shares and safer asset classes. Fun few weeks to see it unfold. It’s very very predicable. So thought I better start a thread to address those making horrible losses who go on to say ‘no one would see it was coming’ when it was soo blindingly obvious it was a bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 @jiltedjen Do you think the bubble is going to burst, do you think this is the start of the tech unwinding? I remember Henry Ford saying wall street is a casino Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 It’s already started! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 31 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: It’s already started! Pump and dump and now on the dump stage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 Let's hope people unwinding their stock don't plough it into property. The noughties property boom seemed to take off when the dot.com bubble burst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 6 days in a row of falls, probably due some slight bounce for a day or so until it gains speed rapidly. have seen many YouTubers with portfolios who have been determined to stick to UK stocks finally in the last month or so start to buy S&P500 right as it peaks. each time I shout at the screen “morons!” it’s all basic human phycology. Most gains are just betting on the greater mass of fools doing something silly for a few years, ignoring fundamentals, and buying with momentum. which is fine, but unless you actually exit, then the whole thing is just taking wealth from you, it’s just transferring money from the thick emotional investors to the smart. when all that’s left of emotional investors, (smart money already left) the falls can be rapid indeed and fast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 Not sure of the relevance of AI here? The US stockmarket is overvalued and many of us have been saying that for months. But AI is probably the major area of growth worldwide at the moment. Overlook it at your peril. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 1 hour ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said: Let's hope people unwinding their stock don't plough it into property. The noughties property boom seemed to take off when the dot.com bubble burst. Yes that is a worry. Housing does feel quite tapped out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KGear Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 Theoretically this is good timing for the cryptocurrency market, but only if Bitcoin can finally break free of following stock market trends Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 America's finished. All America is and has been since 1972 is a fiat printing machine. Worthless dollars pretending to be world leaders. Embarrassing.....and now the whole world has woken up to a really poor playground slight of hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 a drastic stock market fall may trigger an interest rate cut. its going to take a fairly drastic cut or many cuts to continue this bubble. given the underlying stagnation of the economy the valuations just don’t make sense. we have already had a few big falls like Tesla, which will remind people that you can actually lose money. the big 7 have been sucking money from other areas of the economy and other world markets, for years now. when there is new tech people always assume it will change the world, and completely go mad with outsized expectations of what it can do, from the 1920’s with new tech, to the dot.com bubble, this has all the hallmarks. Not to mention all the inevitable leverage being deployed expecting this to be a blip, which only accelerates the falls. The week coming should be interesting. it’s typical miss-allocation of capital. in times of stagnation and poor conditions safety stocks should do well, stocks where people can’t choose to avoid spending, like energy shares, food shares, utilities. just a lot of funny money sloshing around. it’s been chasing growth which will be a horrible mistake for those who don’t get out while they can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 4 hours ago, scottbeard said: Not sure of the relevance of AI here? The US stockmarket is overvalued and many of us have been saying that for months. But AI is probably the major area of growth worldwide at the moment. Overlook it at your peril. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 I "Sort of" said so at the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 28 minutes ago, Maghull Mike said: I "Sort of" said so at the time Yep seen plenty of people on here who have noticed the bubble. it’s very strange seeing people try and justify it, or claim it’s not a bubble, like it’s odd, I guess people said the same with with the dot-com bubble also. looks like it might of begun its collapse now. seems humans cannot have new tech without going balls-out mental about it, far and above it’s actual impact on the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sell2rent Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 The market hasn’t confirmed it is a bubble by bursting it yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 6 hours ago, scottbeard said: Not sure of the relevance of AI here? Heresy! Haven't you read the circular? AI is always relevant, especially in contexts where proper understanding eludes. AMD and NVidia have bet big on AI - and they're a substantial portion of the US stock market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 Nvidia up 60% YTD, anyone who bought and sold in under 3 months is basically day trading. So no investors are making horrible losses on this stock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 10 hours ago, jiltedjen said: looks like it might of begun its collapse now. Writing like a 10 year old doesn't help any point you are trying to make. "To of" is not a verb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotblack42 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Topic should be AI hype bubble burst. AI, like the Internet & Web which many non technical people conflated with "dot.com" and "e-commerce", has been entrenched in our society and economy for a few years now. Its just getting much more attention since the popularisation of ChatGPT and similar. Get the definitions and distinctions clear in your mind and plan accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 46 minutes ago, hotblack42 said: Topic should be AI hype bubble burst. AI, like the Internet & Web which many non technical people conflated with "dot.com" and "e-commerce", has been entrenched in our society and economy for a few years now. Its just getting much more attention since the popularisation of ChatGPT and similar. Get the definitions and distinctions clear in your mind and plan accordingly. That’s what I was trying to say above and you said it much better! @nero120 gave me a laugh emoji because I think he thought I was trying to say “buy AI stocks” I wasn’t what I was trying to say is that AI today is like the internet in 1998 - been here for a while, but in the next 15 years about to blow your minds with what it will do and how much it will change life Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 1 minute ago, scottbeard said: That’s what I was trying to say above and you said it much better! @nero120 gave me a laugh emoji because I think he thought I was trying to say “buy AI stocks” I wasn’t what I was trying to say is that AI today is like the internet in 1998 - been here for a while, but in the next 15 years about to blow your minds with what it will do and how much it will change life I was having the same chat yesterday. At the moment, AI is pretty rubbish. But so was AskJeeves.com. At the moment it is a solution looking for a problem, but with time it will find hte problem for which it is the right solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 24 minutes ago, scottbeard said: That’s what I was trying to say above and you said it much better! @nero120 gave me a laugh emoji because I think he thought I was trying to say “buy AI stocks” I wasn’t what I was trying to say is that AI today is like the internet in 1998 - been here for a while, but in the next 15 years about to blow your minds with what it will do and how much it will change life Sorry that deserves another one of these: I work in tech, it's my bread and butter, and whenever I hear any layman talk about how life changing LLMs are I'm just . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrincessNutNut Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 1 hour ago, hotblack42 said: Topic should be AI hype bubble burst. AI, like the Internet & Web which many non technical people conflated with "dot.com" and "e-commerce", has been entrenched in our society and economy for a few years now. Its just getting much more attention since the popularisation of ChatGPT and similar. Get the definitions and distinctions clear in your mind and plan accordingly. Ah, but no one has considered the energy required again... 18 minutes ago, nero120 said: Sorry that deserves another one of these: I work in tech, it's my bread and butter, and whenever I hear any layman talk about how life changing LLMs are I'm just . Unfortunately. The worst of them appear to be "learning" their expertise by use of ChatGPT - which is tantamount to learning to read books backwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 53 minutes ago, nero120 said: Sorry that deserves another one of these: I work in tech, it's my bread and butter, and whenever I hear any layman talk about how life changing LLMs are I'm just . 24 minutes ago, PrincessNutNut said: Ah, but no one has considered the energy required again... Unfortunately. The worst of them appear to be "learning" their expertise by use of ChatGPT - which is tantamount to learning to read books backwards. I've never used ChatGPT AI and tech is not my bread and butter I am however on several AI steering groups at work I can see where this is going I didn't say LLMs are life changing, I said over the next 15 years AI will be life changing and I stick by that. If you don't think that you probably just dont realise how much simple stuff is currently done, and not well, by humans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrincessNutNut Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 11 minutes ago, scottbeard said: I've never used ChatGPT AI and tech is not my bread and butter I am however on several AI steering groups at work I can see where this is going I didn't say LLMs are life changing, I said over the next 15 years AI will be life changing and I stick by that. If you don't think that you probably just dont realise how much simple stuff is currently done, and not well, by humans. I don't think AI is on track to enabling much you couldn't have automated anyway in the past 20 years. We have simple stuff done by humans, because some humans aren't capable of complex stuff. If you replace them with a machine that has 100x their energy draw to do the same thing (and transferring from chemical to electrical energy), how does that fit in with climate goals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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