Inflation falls less than expected in blow to hopes for summer rate cuts

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, Stewy said:

There is also cost-push deflation (ie, from energy, wheat...).

It's not all about the demand-side. 

 

Bake own bread.......fill the oven, no wasted shelves 30 mins @ 280c can make six good sized loves ......enough for a week.........all strong flour for bread has to be imported more expensive than the cake flour we grow.

[Stewy]

16 minutes ago, winkie said:

Bake own bread.......fill the oven, no wasted shelves 30 mins @ 280c can make six good sized loves ......enough for a week.........all strong flour for bread has to be imported more expensive than the cake flour we grow.

Penny smart and pound foolish is that 🙄

I probably have six slices of bread per week, and a couple of wholemeal pittas. Cheaper to get nice cheap Meal Deals... ✓

[Timm]

20 minutes ago, winkie said:

Bake own bread.......fill the oven, no wasted shelves 30 mins @ 280c can make six good sized loves ......enough for a week.........all strong flour for bread has to be imported more expensive than the cake flour we grow.

That's a lot of bead!

A loaf a day??????????

[winkie]

10 minutes ago, Timm said:

That's a lot of bead!

A loaf a day??????????

800g for a large loaf 400g small loaf.......we used to have regulation on loaf sizes, now they can be made any size and weight so very hard for people to check value.....if freeze all make, except one eating can last as long as you want them to last....bring out night before need but if forget can be toasted from frozen.

https://www.fob.uk.com/about-the-bread-industry/how-bread-is-made/legislation/

[winkie]

26 minutes ago, Stewy said:

Penny smart and pound foolish is that 🙄

I probably have six slices of bread per week, and a couple of wholemeal pittas. Cheaper to get nice cheap Meal Deals... ✓

What is your idea of a Meal Deal never come across that...... except when eating out on the continent menu del dia.......€10 three courses including drink. Excellent home cooked food of exceptional value, plenty of choice.....tapas €2 each very wide variety of meat fish and vegetables.....coffee and churro €2.50......✔️✔️

[Timm]

15 minutes ago, winkie said:

800g for a large loaf 400g small loaf.......we used to have regulation on loaf sizes, now they can be made any size and weight so very hard for people to check value.....if freeze all make, except one eating can last as long as you want them to last....bring out night before need but if forget can be toasted from frozen.

https://www.fob.uk.com/about-the-bread-industry/how-bread-is-made/legislation/

We make our own bread, but we make one at a time in a bread maker.

I would not use a freezer for bread.

Well, maybe one loaf.

[winkie]

11 minutes ago, Timm said:

We make our own bread, but we make one at a time in a bread maker.

I would not use a freezer for bread.

Well, maybe one loaf.

Each to their own......bread machine for one loaf probably not so cost effective, very square with a paddle hole!.......imo best to mix with dough hook in mixer, put in bowl cover to prove till double in size, then shape cover about half hour turn oven on to heat up.......can make different shapes, plaits etc put seeds, sunflower, sesame, poppy etc on top....polenta makes a good covering, score with knife and bake.....happy baking.

[The Angry Capitalist]

3 hours ago, Dreamcasting said:

There's a significant number of people who haven't received a pay raise in proportion despite the headline figures.

Looking ahead, many companies are struggling with higher interest rates which is ultimately going to lead to mass layoffs. @Stewy may actually be right in his inflation calls, but it will only be because of a dire economic position.

Deflation is going to come at some point.

That is guaranteed.

However, it will take more than 5% rates to get there and once we do it then becomes a question of how governments and central banks respond.

[Flat Bear]

12 hours ago, Timm said:

I'm actually surprised it did not fall further.

Will it even fall at all next month before the rebound?

Yes, I thought it might have been even more.

Will we see another fall????????????????? or is this the bottom of the curve????????

12 hours ago, Sackboii said:

It’s reached the bottom of the curve now, turning around to increase again. ✔️

Possibly

12 hours ago, Sackboii said:

NMW, State Pension, bennies, council tax, mobile, broadband, tv packages and possibly a few others kicked in this month too, although won’t be in inflation figures until the next release at the earliest.

Yes, there are many upward inflationary factors. Those deflationary factors have finished their course.

11 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Even there is a month or two when CPI briefly dips below 2% we are not heading for a period of entrenched deflation.

Even if there is a single token 0.25% interest rate cut at some point in 2024 we are not heading back to a period of low interest rates.

 

I think you are right on the short term outlook.

8 hours ago, Timm said:

At the risk of talking to myself, and just for the record:

I actually do expect a further fall in CPI next month. 

Before rebounding later in 2024.

I would guess at just one more fall just below the 3% which in turn MAY get the BOE to make a 0.25% cut in the base rate in MAY. Can not see any reason for any cuts after this and would suggest upward pressure towards the end of the year reversing any cut and possibly starting rising further.

This may all be partially political as this is the only news Sunak can spin to help him in at the ballot box. Futile as it may be.

[Sackboii]

15 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

Possibly

Increasingly likely..

Quote

Petrol prices are soaring - and could soon go well above 150p a litre
 

Petrol prices could go well above 150p a litre, the RAC has warned, as data shows it has already risen by nearly 8p this year. 

The price at the pump has hit a five-month high of 148.5p, according to government figures. 

It was 140.8p at the start of the year.

During this week alone, the cost has gone up by 1.6p - there has not been a sharper weekly rise since August 2023.

Average pump prices for diesel have also increased to 157.5p, the highest since November 2023.

"This year is proving to be another tough one for drivers," RAC fuel price spokesperson Simon Williams said. 

"Both petrol and diesel are now the most expensive they've been since November last year, which is bad for households, businesses and the economy, especially as we know there is a close link between fuel prices and inflation.

"With increased tensions in the Middle East, the cost of oil is only likely to go up, which could push petrol well above 150p a litre."

This was echoed by AA fuel price spokesman Luke Bosdet, who said pump prices were climbing towards the point "drivers fear". 

"It is a psychological shock that shouts out from the price boards each time motorists drive past," he said. 

"The early part of the summer could be a tough time for UK motorists."

Mr Williams also explained that while diesel is edging towards 160p, that is due to retailers taking much bigger margins. 

"There's only been a few pence between the wholesale prices of both fuels since mid-March," he added. 

"We find it hard to believe that a margin of 13p a litre on diesel - compared to the long-term average of 8p - is fair.

"This surely won't go unnoticed by the Competition and Markets Authority, which only two weeks ago expressed its concern about higher retailer margins."

https://news.sky.com/story/money-blog-news-latest-consumer-financial-inflation-employment-rights-maternity-leave-cost-of-living-13040934?postid=7550064#liveblog-body

[cdd]

https://www.ft.com/content/d998d679-7d83-4e47-910e-b49370e0318b

The great bet on rate cuts is off.

The inflation dragon is not slain after all.

 

[Stewy]

1 minute ago, cdd said:

https://www.ft.com/content/d998d679-7d83-4e47-910e-b49370e0318b

The great bet on rate cuts is off.

The inflation dragon is not slain after all.

 

We're savaging rates before the Fed. ✓ 

[Blobsy]

24 minutes ago, cdd said:

https://www.ft.com/content/d998d679-7d83-4e47-910e-b49370e0318b

The great bet on rate cuts is off.

The inflation dragon is not slain after all.

 

When Central banks were jawboning 'Transitory blah blah blah...' they should have been jackeing rates to 8-10%.

History shows that once inflation is entrenched it is a very tricky customer.

We are where we are. Lots of pain for all (but mostly debt holders).

[Dreamcasting]

8 minutes ago, Blobsy said:

When Central banks were jawboning 'Transitory blah blah blah...' they should have been jackeing rates to 8-10%.

History shows that once inflation is entrenched it is a very tricky customer.

We are where we are. Lots of pain for all (but mostly debt holders).

Agreed. Central banks are comprised of a bunch of knackers.

[Huggy]

US rate setter tells BBC 'no hurry' to cut interest rates

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68849498

More haste, less speed.

Only fools rush in.

Slow and steady wins the race.

It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black.

[scottbeard]

4 minutes ago, Huggy said:

It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black.

I've always hated that expression "it's always darkest just before dawn".  No it's not - it's darkest in the middle of the night.

[frederico]

6 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I've always hated that expression "it's always darkest just before dawn".  No it's not - it's darkest in the middle of the night.

It’s not a statement of fact is it, its meant to make people who are in the depths of despair feel better.

It’s always darkest before its pitch black on the other hand, is obviously incorrect.

 

[Huggy]

7 minutes ago, frederico said:

It’s not a statement of fact is it, its meant to make people who are in the depths of despair feel better.

It’s always darkest before its pitch black on the other hand, is obviously incorrect.

 

But that's not a statement of fact either. That's meant to make home"owners" who are in the depths of remortgaging despair (4,000 a day, every day this year) realise that they might not get bailed out like the last lot did

Indeed, interest rates might improve even more....

Edited April 19 by Huggy

[winkie]

Oil up 4%......that is not good.

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, frederico said:

It’s not a statement of fact is it, its meant to make people who are in the depths of despair feel better.

Why would a factually incorrect statement make people feel better though?

I guess "The darkest hour is just before dawn" is trying to say "you'll feel your absolute worst just before it starts to get better" but that still doesn't really provide reassurance that the "absolute worst" is today, and tomorrow will be better.  Tomorrow might be worse still.

I think if I had to try and comfort someone in the depths of despair I'd try to talk to them about their actual situation and not slap out some cliche that isn't even true.

[fellow]

20 hours ago, Stewy said:

We're savaging rates before the Fed. ✓ 

It looks like Andrew Bailey agrees but the question is how soon and by how much? Ironically, this statement alone could delay the rate cuts as markets and banks price the cuts in too quick, causing inflation to come down more slowly. I reckon, if he had kept his comments more hawkish all the way through then the first rate cut may already have happened by now.

Bailey Hints BOE May Be Able to Cut Rates Before Fed

[Dreamcasting]

2 minutes ago, fellow said:

It looks like Andrew Bailey agrees but the question is how soon and by how much? Ironically, this statement alone could delay the rate cuts as markets and banks price the cuts in too quick, causing inflation to come down more slowly. I reckon, if he had kept his comments more hawkish all the way through then the first rate cut may already have happened by now.

Bailey Hints BOE May Be Able to Cut Rates Before Fed

The UK isn't about to savage rates as says @Stewy. They will however be dropping to around 4.25%. Unfortunately, that's not really good news as far as the property market goes, assuming you're wanting lower prices.

[scottbeard]

1 minute ago, Dreamcasting said:

The UK isn't about to savage rates as says @Stewy. They will however be dropping to around 4.25%. Unfortunately, that's not really good news as far as the property market goes, assuming you're wanting lower prices.

By when do you expect 4.25%?  Surely not this year?!

[Dreamcasting]

Just now, scottbeard said:

By when do you expect 4.25%?  Surely not this year?!

My original thought was that rates would be increasing next year, however I've changed my mind on that based on recent data.

My guess is maybe 1 0.25% cut at some point later this year and then chased down to land at 4.25% for the majority of 2025.

[scottbeard]

36 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

My original thought was that rates would be increasing next year, however I've changed my mind on that based on recent data.

My guess is maybe 1 0.25% cut at some point later this year and then chased down to land at 4.25% for the majority of 2025.

OK, interesting.  I don't have strong views on the exact timing and direction of interest rates now, but staying in a 4-6% range for the next 3 years seems very likely, hence why I think that current fixed rate mortgages are good value relative to trackers, as they are pricing in plunges in interest rates that won't happen.