Inflation falls less than expected in blow to hopes for summer rate cuts

[cdd]

3 hours ago, Stewy said:

There was a Q1 dip prices...back to where we were five months ago...and now you're screaming inflation? 😆 

Ridiculous.

U.S keeping rates where they are or raising them further = pound weakening vs dollar

U.K dropping rates = pound weakening vs dollar

Weak pound vs dollar = petrol prices going up, causing inflation

That's before you even get into the ongoing wars as well as the risks they bring, to make this so much worse.

Perhaps you should try taking this all into account. Oh wait, you do, but in a 'Stewy nonsense kind of way'.

Edited April 24 by cdd

[Dreamcasting]

9 hours ago, nero120 said:

You might think so, but sadly that would be stunningly ignorant. You see, if the price of an asset has been bid up far beyond it's residual value due to abundant cheap credit, when the cost of credit rises it has the effect of removing liquidity from the market, this prices fall.

High inflation = higher interest rates = property prices continue to tumble until they find their residual value, or perhaps even lower for the real bilge that most wouldn't be caught dead in.

So sorry.

I'm not sorry. I already own my property and could care less if prices go up or down. I'm not going to move, have no debt and have wealth in a wide range of asset classes. None of what I say changes the fundamentals of the direction of travel for house prices though as the market doesn't convey any traditional rules like how it once did.

[Frankie Teardrop]

Aussie inflation coming in hotter than expected.
Bank Indonesia raises interest rates.

The data is now suggesting base rates going up further is a real possibility rather than plateauing forever.

 

[frederico]

2 minutes ago, Frankie Teardrop said:

Aussie inflation coming in hotter than expected.
Bank Indonesia raises interest rates.

The data is now suggesting base rates going up further is a real possibility rather than plateauing forever.

 

That really would be a killer 

[mrpleasant]

On 17/04/2024 at 09:57, scottbeard said:

Yes - except to note that interest rates are actually in more of a "normal" range than high.

👍

[mrpleasant]

19 hours ago, Orb said:

This "oh yes we will.... oh no we wont" theatre on rate cuts is some supreme level gas-lighting. 

 

Remember Mark Carney? Highest paid user of the word 'might' in the history of the Bank of England.

[cdd]

Inflation heating up in other economies, as well as rate cut expectations fading, rate rise expectations gaining.

Meanwhile clown Bailey is talking about U.K rate cuts 🤔🤡 

U.K inflation is going to have a one off dip in inflation next month, due to energy prices, we get it.

After that, all bets are off.

Edited April 24 by cdd

[fellow]

Aussie inflation rises, adding further upward pressure to interest rates.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13343171/Inflation-shock-cost-living-spikes-heres-means-you.html

Quote

Australian home borrowers may have to wait for an interest rate cut with inflation climbing again - putting it further above the Reserve Bank's target as petrol prices soar. In March, the consumer price index rose to 3.5 per cent, up from 3.4 per cent in February. 

 

[cdd]

1 minute ago, fellow said:

Aussie inflation rises, adding further upward pressure to interest rates.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13343171/Inflation-shock-cost-living-spikes-heres-means-you.html

 

I wonder what excuses Stewy shall concuct, when this doesn't go the way he expected, and has been preaching about.

[fellow]

Indonesia preempts the Fed's next move?

Bank Indonesia Surprises With Rate Hike, Expects Rupiah Gain

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/indonesia-raises-key-rate-to-lift-rupiah-from-pandemic-era-lows

Quote

BI-Rate raised by quarter-point to 6.25% in ‘preemptive’ move.

Bank Indonesia defied expectations and raised its benchmark interest rate to a record high to help guide the rupiah below the psychological level of 16,000 against the dollar by year-end.

The central bank increased the BI-Rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% on Wednesday, a move predicted by only 11 of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest had expected no change. Global uncertainty has flared up with the dollar’s resurgence and co

 

Edited April 24 by fellow

[Stewy]

1 hour ago, cdd said:

I wonder what excuses Stewy shall concuct, when this doesn't go the way he expected, and has been preaching about.

 

1 hour ago, cdd said:

Inflation heating up in other economies, as well as rate cut expectations fading, rate rise expectations gaining.

Meanwhile clown Bailey is talking about U.K rate cuts 🤔🤡 

U.K inflation is going to have a one off dip in inflation next month, due to energy prices, we get it.

After that, all bets are off.

 

I won't be the one making excuses - yet you already are. You know inflation is back on target and will be reported so in four weeks, so are taking one huge line of copium. Here's a bar you must visit

 

[cdd]

7 hours ago, Stewy said:

 

 

I won't be the one making excuses - yet you already are. You know inflation is back on target and will be reported so in four weeks, so are taking one huge line of copium. Here's a bar you must visit

 

We've known for months that this inflation dip was coming.

Seems you're the only one ignoring that inflation is likely to rise again after that for most of the year.

[staintunerider]

On 23/04/2024 at 23:44, nero120 said:

You might think so, but sadly that would be stunningly ignorant. You see, if the price of an asset has been bid up far beyond it's residual value due to abundant cheap credit, when the cost of credit rises it has the effect of removing liquidity from the market, this prices fall.

High inflation = higher interest rates = property prices continue to tumble until they find their residual value, or perhaps even lower for the real bilge that most wouldn't be caught dead in.

So sorry.

This price increase phenomenon isn't unique to the UK. Prices are going up just about everywhere.

Regards house prices, if everything else is going up due to debased currency, it is almost guaranteed that house prices go up with them.

Yes, it is stunning in it's ignorance!

And yes stunningly lacking in understanding of the points you made.

In addition real wages have not grown enough regardless of what that ONS obessed loon on here says, many roles are paying what they paid 20 years ago not inflation adjusted but in actual number terms....inflation is and has been rampant....how far does this rubber band holding houses prices up in the face of real interest rates and deflated wages(inflation adjusted) and rampant inflation...

Rubber bands tend to let go all of a sudden when there literally is no more elasticity ....

House prices in the UK in particular the south and London are wiley coyote standing way above where they should be to avoid taking a swift dive down to where they should be....

and that is a long way down, they should never have gotten to where they did...

When it happens we probably will see multiple decades of property suddenly not being the darling it has been.....i'm sure there will be some other mania that will come along....

 

 

Edited April 25 by staintunerider

[Dreamcasting]

25 minutes ago, staintunerider said:

Yes, it is stunning in it's ignorance!

It's not. The currency has been debased each and every year and house prices have gone along for the ride the entire time. It's also exactly why this forum has been pretty much 100% wrong the entire time, and why 20 years later people are still complaining about high house prices!

[scottbeard]

35 minutes ago, staintunerider said:

In addition real wages have not grown enough regardless of what that ONS obessed loon on here says, many roles are paying what they paid 20 years ago not inflation adjusted but in actual number terms....

Real wages have not grown enough, I'd agree.  

However, cherry-picking some jobs that have not increased at all in nominal terms is not helpful: yes indeed, whilst other jobs have had big increases and the overall mix of jobs in the UK has changed completely.  This is why we look at averages compiled by ... yes, sources like the ONS! 

[Stewy]

7 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

, and why 20 years later people are still complaining about high house prices!

"This time it's going to be different, bro!"

🤔 

[Dreamcasting]

3 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

It's not. The currency has been debased each and every year and house prices have gone along for the ride the entire time. It's also exactly why this forum has been pretty much 100% wrong the entire time, and why 20 years later people are still complaining about high house prices!

And as for the whole "cheap credit" line, nope. In England, the average price of property was £75k in December 1999 and £173k in October 2008. Interest rates were 5.5% in December 1999 and 4.5% in October 2008. Interest rates for the entire period were consistently within range.

People on this forum really need to start looking at facts instead of just making crap up.

[winkie]

21 hours ago, cdd said:

Inflation heating up in other economies, as well as rate cut expectations fading, rate rise expectations gaining.

Meanwhile clown Bailey is talking about U.K rate cuts 🤔🤡 

U.K inflation is going to have a one off dip in inflation next month, due to energy prices, we get it.

After that, all bets are off.

Talk the talk, need to avoid falls in stock market....then there is the strength of the pound, importing more inflation.......or British goods and services becoming cheaper for other places to purchase......bit of a fine balance, all decisions have both good and bad consequences, both winners and losers......talk can move markets.....

[Timm]

1 hour ago, Dreamcasting said:

It's not. The currency has been debased each and every year and house prices have gone along for the ride the entire time. It's also exactly why this forum has been pretty much 100% wrong the entire time, and why 20 years later people are still complaining about high house prices!

I agree.

But I would unpack the word "debased" to say "cheap and easy credit"

52 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

And as for the whole "cheap credit" line, nope. In England, the average price of property was £75k in December 1999 and £173k in October 2008. Interest rates were 5.5% in December 1999 and 4.5% in October 2008. Interest rates for the entire period were consistently within range.

People on this forum really need to start looking at facts instead of just making crap up.

An interesting choice of months!

In Oct 1998, bank rate was at 7.25%.

But some of the millennial bubble was a reduction in rates, some was increasingly lax regulation. (Securitisation, Lie To Buy, etc etc etc. Cheap and Easy Credit.

[staintunerider]

1 hour ago, Dreamcasting said:

It's not. The currency has been debased each and every year and house prices have gone along for the ride the entire time. It's also exactly why this forum has been pretty much 100% wrong the entire time, and why 20 years later people are still complaining about high house prices!

Yes it is and now it's time for you accept something other than house price inflation.

You've had 20 years of HPI brought about by every trick in the book to achieve and maintain this. This time is over and now you're looking at inflation to support it and fuel it even more as now all the other tricks are now gone or impotent....that's a pretty desperate straw you're clutching there....

House prices need to revert to the proper market fundamentals that have now gate crashed the party, inflation is not going to do what you want it to do, in fact inflation is the reason your fantasy fundamentals of low rates and props have been blown out of the water.

Inflation is your enemy if you want continued lunancy in the UK RE market but your touting it as your new backer, WRONG, WRONG and WRONG....

Inflation is never easy to put back in the bag history has shown....if the RE market in the UK had not been blow to ludicrous highs yes it may well be your HPI friend starting from 2002/2004 prices but you've had your party and the party is over, inflation is certainly not going to give you what you want and it's going to give you the complete opposite. Not just on higher costs of credit to buy Real Estate but the cost of lving taking away money to pay for that credit.

Inflation is going to attack property prices and HPI on all fronts, it's a slow ar of attrition and it will have it's way one way or the other.

We have a govt that has fiscally bankupted this country and their main concern now is the pound or else rates will have to go even higher to protect the pound..

You HPI madness is over, accept it.

They say the market is at first a voting machine then a weighing machine, they have kept it in the voting stage artifically for far too long now it's the weighing machine and the market based on new fundamentals will adjust one way or the other.

There will probably be a black swan or multiple black swans that will kick the market where it hurts and shake it out of its delusion and really send it a leg down then multiple legs down...once folk realise its a losing bet they get very very cautious and as I have said you're going to get at some point before the end of this decade probably 2 decades of what we had in the 90's but much much worse than the 90's because the numbers are so insane now....

[staintunerider]

6 minutes ago, Timm said:

I agree.

But I would unpack the word "debased" to say "cheap and easy credit"

An interesting choice of months!

In Oct 1998, bank rate was at 7.25%.

But some of the millennial bubble was a reduction in rates, some was increasingly lax regulation. (Securitisation, Lie To Buy, etc etc etc. Cheap and Easy Credit.

What he doesnt seem to get is rates in the 89 bubble were quite high in the double digits, when the crash hit, rates fell and still couldnt stop the real estate slump of the 90's.

This time around rates have been after 08 at 300 year lows and have now risen and are likely to rise further...property prices are beyond insane and rates are going higher and he thinks his new pal inflation will keep and push property prices higher when its his new chum inflation that's spolied his party....bizarre!

[nero120]

15 minutes ago, staintunerider said:

Yes it is and now it's time for you accept something other than house price inflation.

You've had 20 years of HPI brought about by every trick in the book to achieve and maintain this. This time is over and now you're looking at inflation to support it and fuel it even more as now all the other tricks are now gone or impotent....that's a pretty desperate straw you're clutching there....

House prices need to revert to the proper market fundamentals that have now gate crashed the party, inflation is not going to do what you want it to do, in fact inflation is the reason your fantasy fundamentals of low rates and props have been blown out of the water.

Inflation is your enemy if you want continued lunancy in the UK RE market but your touting it as your new backer, WRONG, WRONG and WRONG....

Inflation is never easy to put back in the bag history has shown....if the RE market in the UK had not been blow to ludicrous highs yes it may well be your HPI friend starting from 2002/2004 prices but you've had your party and the party is over, inflation is certainly not going to give you what you want and it's going to give you the complete opposite. Not just on higher costs of credit to buy Real Estate but the cost of lving taking away money to pay for that credit.

Inflation is going to attack property prices and HPI on all fronts, it's a slow ar of attrition and it will have it's way one way or the other.

We have a govt that has fiscally bankupted this country and their main concern now is the pound or else rates will have to go even higher to protect the pound..

You HPI madness is over, accept it.

They say the market is at first a voting machine then a weighing machine, they have kept it in the voting stage artifically for far too long now it's the weighing machine and the market based on new fundamentals will adjust one way or the other.

There will probably be a black swan or multiple black swans that will kick the market where it hurts and shake it out of its delusion and really send it a leg down then multiple legs down...once folk realise its a losing bet they get very very cautious and as I have said you're going to get at some point before the end of this decade probably 2 decades of what we had in the 90's but much much worse than the 90's because the numbers are so insane now....

Great post.

[nero120]

9 minutes ago, staintunerider said:

What he doesnt seem to get is rates in the 89 bubble were quite high in the double digits, when the crash hit, rates fell and still couldnt stop the real estate slump of the 90's.

This time around rates have been after 08 at 300 year lows and have now risen and are likely to rise further...property prices are beyond insane and rates are going higher and he thinks his new pal inflation will keep and push property prices higher when its his new chum inflation that's spolied his party....bizarre!

He's also confusing HPI as a result of "inflation" when actually it's classic speculation driving increased asset prices as a result of the declining cost of credit.

He's just clutching at whatever straw he can grab hold of, just like some of the other VIs/trolls on this forum. And to be honest, this crap has gone on so long that you can't really blame them! However, it doesn't change the fact that they will be dragged down to oblivion as they have tied themselves to the mast (physically and emotionally) of a rapidly sinking ship.

[Dreamcasting]

21 minutes ago, Timm said:

I agree.

But I would unpack the word "debased" to say "cheap and easy credit"

An interesting choice of months!

In Oct 1998, bank rate was at 7.25%.

But some of the millennial bubble was a reduction in rates, some was increasingly lax regulation. (Securitisation, Lie To Buy, etc etc etc. Cheap and Easy Credit.

Sure. But when HPC simply comes out and says HPI is all caused by cheap and easy credit, that is well wide off the mark. Most posters on this forum don't consider the bigger picture and then wonder why they've always been on the losing side.

[Dreamcasting]

22 minutes ago, staintunerider said:

You HPI madness is over, accept it.

My HPI madness lol 😂

I don't personally consider myself to have gained through HPI so I don't know where you're getting that from? I've also said on several occasions that I could care less whether house prices in the UK go upwards, downwards or sideways.