fellow Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 51 minutes ago, Stewy said: No, it was energy, which has now completely crumbled...sending us back into deflation mode. But what caused energy to rise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 8 minutes ago, fellow said: But what caused energy to rise? A combination of unusual disparate factors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 19 minutes ago, Stewy said: A combination of unusual disparate factors. Most of which are still in play i.e supply side constraints, war in the Ukraine + ME, soaring global demand. WTI: +2.20% Brent: +1.57% https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Morgan-Stanley-Says-to-Buy-Energy-Stocks-Right-Now.html Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have noted that energy markets kicked off the new year with an overly pessimistic view of oil demand, and sees an oil price rally unfolding in the coming months. StanChart estimates that January oil demand clocked in at 100.24 million barrels per day (mb/d), good for a 2.67 mb/d year-over-year increase and 0.25 mb/d higher than StanChart’s latest forecast. StanChart has now revised its earlier 2024 demand growth forecast to 1.69 mb/d from 1.64 mb/d previously. The analysts have also predicted a sustained period of inventory draws in H1-2024, with the cumulative draw coming in at 185 mb compared with a H1-2023 build of 230 mb. StanChart has predicted that global demand will hit a new all-time high of 103.01 mb/d in May, with June setting a new record at 103.62 mb/d while August demand is expected to be even higher at 104.31 mb/d. StanChart says tightening oil markets will continue to power the oil price rally and has predicted Brent to average $94/bbl in Q2-2024. Supply growth is likely to remain constrained, with StanChart predicting that U.S. crude supply will not grow significantly higher than November 2023’s all-time high of 13.319 mb/d. Meanwhile, Russia is intent on keeping supply tight in a bid to support higher prices. A few days ago, Moscow ordered oil companies to lower their output in the second quarter so that the country can meet its OPEC+ production target of 9 million barrels per day (bpd). Private sources have told Reuters that Moscow has given specific targets to each oil company, an indication of Moscow’s commitment to keep its OPEC+ pledge. Russian oil and gas condensate production has declined to 10.8 million currently from an annual peak of 11.7 million bpd in 2019 due to production cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbleturbo Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 On 26/03/2024 at 22:44, cdd said: Nobody cares what you "predict". Your predictions have been proven worthless. 😂😂😂😂😂😂 Well said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted March 28 Author Share Posted March 28 3 hours ago, Quid Game said: Don’t be too hard on @cdd. Not the first time this forum has had a boat related black swan. That thread was nearly exactly three years ago. Wonder what it is with the month of March and large boats. A few thoughts. I should have wrote "possible" black swan in the title, not probable. I should have specified why it could matter. The U.S has been having data lately that doesn't bode so well for rate cut seekers. The last thing they need is an unforeseen disaster, such as this one, that could put further upwards pressure on inflation. I don't know if it will, some say it will have an impact, others say it won't. Life isn't so simple as it appears. One thing leads to another, the butterfly effect can be quite powerful. Regardless of if this leads to much impact, it highlights that anything could happen. I personally think that anyone gambling big on rates coming down much in the near future are being extremely reckless, and deserve any negative consequence it should lead to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 6 minutes ago, cdd said: I personally think that anyone gambling big on rates coming down much in the near future are being extremely reckless, and deserve any negative consequence it should lead to. I personally don't disagree with that. Gambling is a mugs game. The name of the game should be diversification, hedging, and let's not forget common sense! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 2 hours ago, fellow said: But what caused energy to rise? More importantly what caused it to come down? The US selling huge amounts from the SPR and exporting the most oil ever maybe? Sounds legit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 2 hours ago, nero120 said: More importantly what caused it to come down? The US selling huge amounts from the SPR and exporting the most oil ever maybe? Sounds legit... Are they beginning to lose control of the price? The U.S. Breaks Its Self-Imposed Oil Price Ceiling of $79 to Refill the SPR https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-US-Breaks-Its-Self-Imposed-Oil-Price-Ceiling-of-79-to-Refill-the-SPR.html 28/03/24 "The latest crude oil purchase that the Department of Energy made as part of refill plans for the strategic petroleum reserve cost an average of over $81 per barrel, exceeding the $79 ceiling set by the federal government. The replenishing effort has been going on slowly, with three million barrels bought there and another three bought here as the very news of a planned purchase led to an uptick in prices." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 15 hours ago, scottbeard said: But those falls are already priced into today's fixed rates, hence why a 5 year fix is now about 4.1% ie well below base rate That would be more than double what some people are coming off though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 16 hours ago, hotblack42 said: I wish there was a way to short those headlines. Of course it will - the cost of re-routing and delays. There are also some technicalities around regulated warehousing for controlled materials but I'm sure the U.S. government will quickly issues new licences - business is business. "It is one of the smallest container ports on the Northeastern seaboard, handling 265,000 containers in the fourth quarter of last year, according to container shipping expert Lars Jensen. The Port of New York and New Jersey handled around 2 million containers in that same period, and Norfolk Port in Virginia handled 850,000, so the flow of containers to Baltimore can likely be redistributed to bigger ports, Jensen said." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/baltimore-port-coal-cars-cruise-lines-2024-03-26/ Don't waste time reading and watching mainstream news media. The straight dope is on business and trade sites. A Lloyd's exec on the BBC this morning noted that both the ship and bridge are fully insured. I guess some people prefer selective, doomster coverage - reinforces their echo chamber world view. Waste of life IMHO. This event will inconvience wealthy/faux wealthy Americans who have ordered brand new European cars and the folk who make a living from that line of business. Personally I dont give an S. about either of those constituencies. Market reaction: Of course the bridge was insured, would be very strange if it wasn`t? The "market reaction" is meaningless, markets lost touch with economic reality long ago, this is a euphoric market phase IMO, based on FOMO and Greed, it is too early to say that some of those headlines are not accurate IMO, and as someone else said it is a great excuse for infrastructure spending which is surely inflationary? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 8 hours ago, dances with sheeple said: Of course the bridge was insured, would be very strange if it wasn`t? The "market reaction" is meaningless, markets lost touch with economic reality long ago, this is a euphoric market phase IMO, based on FOMO and Greed, it is too early to say that some of those headlines are not accurate IMO, and as someone else said it is a great excuse for infrastructure spending which is surely inflationary? The insurance payout for this will be enormous and will likely push up insurance costs for the shipping industry so that's more inflation baked in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 15 minutes ago, fellow said: The insurance payout for this will be enormous and will likely push up insurance costs for the shipping industry so that's more inflation baked in. 💯✅ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 31 minutes ago, fellow said: The insurance payout for this will be enormous and will likely push up insurance costs for the shipping industry so that's more inflation baked in. What %age of shipping costs are insurance? 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 31 minutes ago, Stewy said: What %age of shipping costs are insurance? 😆 A lot more now after this and the Red Sea attacks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, fellow said: A lot more now after this and the Red Sea attacks. How has this increased the bridge strike risk? 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 6 minutes ago, Stewy said: How has this increased the bridge strike risk? 🤔 The payout could run into the tens of billions of dollars when all costs of rebuilding, loss of business and loss of life are taken into account. The insurance company(s) will need to claw this back by raising premiums for the rest of their customers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, fellow said: The payout could run into the tens of billions of dollars when all costs of rebuilding, loss of business and loss of life are taken into account. The insurance company(s) will need to claw this back by raising premiums for the rest of their customers. How much is "tens of billions of dollars" as a percentage of American or World GDP? You're just clutching at straws to get your Doom Porn Nothingburger filled... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 10 minutes ago, Stewy said: How much is "tens of billions of dollars" as a percentage of American or World GDP? You're just clutching at straws to get your Doom Porn Nothingburger filled... What on earth is a 'doom porn nothing burger'?.....no pictures please, you make it up in your mind?....now thinking rubbish and well as speaking it.....are you a politician? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 On 26/03/2024 at 18:44, cdd said: Nobody cares what you "predict". Your predictions have been proven worthless. To be fair, probably a good 90% of the predictions on here are worthless. Notable exceptions on here are the interest rate predictor which because it is crowd sourced appears to work pretty well and the bitcoin proponents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, Stewy said: How much is "tens of billions of dollars" as a percentage of American or World GDP? You're just clutching at straws to get your Doom Porn Nothingburger filled... It's a nothingburger on its own but burgers are made of many constituent parts and this has added a bit more sauce to the Bear Mac we are already feasting on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 On 29/03/2024 at 10:01, fellow said: The insurance payout for this will be enormous and will likely push up insurance costs for the shipping industry so that's more inflation baked in. And costs to insure structures that could collapse and cause multiple claims, all inflationary as you say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 5 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said: And costs to insure structures that could collapse and cause multiple claims, all inflationary as you say. Maybe...it will certainly be used to INFORM premiums that's certainly true. But the insurance industry does expect claims from time to time! That's what the premium is all about. And catastrophe claims like this in particular are expected to be very infrequent but then very large when they do happen. So this event is not necessarily unexpected. However, because of their rarity catastrophes are quite rare, so each one adds a lot of new data. This will certainly have an impact, but not necessarily just a big rise, unless analysis of the situation reveals (for example) that actually such events are a lot more likely than previously realised, or a lot more expensive than priced for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 On 29/03/2024 at 11:07, Stewy said: How has this increased the bridge strike risk? 🤔 It hasn`t, but it has shown that outcomes could be a lot more catastrophic than previously thought, therefore the risk premium will increase, and as pointed out already this is all inflationary. The FED are looking for any excuse not to cut, incidents like this just give backing to that excuse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 1 minute ago, scottbeard said: Maybe...it will certainly be used to INFORM premiums that's certainly true. But the insurance industry does expect claims from time to time! That's what the premium is all about. And catastrophe claims like this in particular are expected to be very infrequent but then very large when they do happen. So this event is not necessarily unexpected. However, because of their rarity catastrophes are quite rare, so each one adds a lot of new data. This will certainly have an impact, but not necessarily just a big rise, unless analysis of the situation reveals (for example) that actually such events are a lot more likely than previously realised, or a lot more expensive than priced for. Any structure that even looks like it could collapse in ways not previously expected will have it`s insurance costs jacked up at the earliest opportunity IMO, they are not pricing the likelihood of the event they are pricing the size of the payout if the event happens? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 2 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said: Any structure that even looks like it could collapse in ways not previously expected will have it`s insurance costs jacked up at the earliest opportunity IMO, they are not pricing the likelihood of the event they are pricing the size of the payout if the event happens? The cost of an insurance premium though by and large is: Likelihood of event happening x Cost of event happening + insurance company expenses + profit margin For example, take something more mundane - the cost of mobile phone insurance is almost exactly likelihood of phone being lost/stolen/damaged x cost of a new phone + expenses + profit The impact on the premium of a new phone costing double or the likelihood of losing the phone doubling are the same! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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