Rebound in economic data - inflation will follow shortly

[Pebbles]

7 hours ago, Stewy said:

Out of recession (if we ever had one)...cost-push deflation...vroom vroom what a year this will be 🏎️

Indeed I said as much it was over before the recession was announced yet people here failed to believe outside of their usual doom mongering.

[Tony_Teacake]

8 hours ago, Stewy said:

Out of recession (if we ever had one)...cost-push deflation...vroom vroom what a year this will be 🏎️

We still have Feb & March data to come yet as one months data doesn't tell us we are out of a recession.

I thought you had a degree in economics 

[Stewy]

4 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said:

We still have Feb & March data to come yet as one months data doesn't tell us we are out of a recession.

I thought you had a degree in economics 

Are you expecting a -0.2% in one of the months, if so why? 

[winkie]

1 hour ago, Stewy said:

Are you expecting a -0.2% in one of the months, if so why? 

A question for you since you know everything.....where is this growth going to come from?....what jobs will be providing all this growth and productivity, when many already are in jobs that provide no productivity......how many people will be employed in these growth productive jobs?

[Stewy]

3 minutes ago, winkie said:

A question for you since you know everything.....where is this growth going to come from?....what jobs will be providing all this growth and productivity, when many already are in jobs that provide no productivity......how many people will be employed in these growth productive jobs?

Cost-push deflation will put more money in people's pockets, and confidence in the future to invest...we can already see it with the first energy price hemorrhages...I have seen the green shoots and so too shall you... 🌱

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

37 minutes ago, Stewy said:

Cost-push deflation will put more money in people's pockets, and confidence in the future to invest...we can already see it with the first energy price hemorrhages...I have seen the green shoots and so too shall you... 🌱

I can see green shoots of heaven knows what... volatility and stagnation. 

[Stewy]

4 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said:

I can see green shoots of heaven knows what... volatility and stagnation. 

2.4% growth on the latest stats  📈

[Blobsy]

Thank heavens for drugs and prostitution! (and imputed rent of course).

[winkie]

2 hours ago, Stewy said:

Cost-push deflation will put more money in people's pockets, and confidence in the future to invest...we can already see it with the first energy price hemorrhages...I have seen the green shoots and so too shall you... 🌱

Invest in what?.......energy is the economy, no energy we won't be going anywhere, no steam......seeing green shoots on the fig trees.

[cdd]

Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, oil prices rising with shock potential.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2024-03-14/

[cdd]

Hot inflation data from the U.S today:

Thursday morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) for February was yet another data point that perky inflation is proving far stickier than most expected. The government report said PPI was higher by 0.6% last month, doubling the pace in January and also double economist forecasts. The so-called core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in February, a slowdown from 0.5% in January, but ahead of forecasts for 0.2%.

Edited March 14 by cdd

[bartelbe]

Yep, I have no idea why everyone seems so sure interest rates are going to down to rick bottom levels again.

Everybody from consumers, to house buyer, to bankers seems to be basing their decisions on this delusion.

I think they are all in for a nasty shock.

[zugzwang]

27 minutes ago, bartelbe said:

Yep, I have no idea why everyone seems so sure interest rates are going to down to rick bottom levels again.

Everybody from consumers, to house buyer, to bankers seems to be basing their decisions on this delusion.

I think they are all in for a nasty shock.

 

Because they're all super-leveraged with debt and on the brink of defaulting!

An almighty shock. The Fed's 'five or six' in '24 looks increasingly like one and done.

[zugzwang]

Janet Yellen regrets pretending to be a scientist.

 

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen walks back transitory inflation claims: 'I regret saying it'

Story by Kristen Altus

As Americans have continued to sound off over sticker shock on retail and grocery shelves, the U.S. Treasury secretary admitted Wednesday that her public predictions were wrong.

"I regret saying it was transitory [inflation]. It has come down, but I think transitory means a few weeks or months to most people. And it's lasted longer than that," Janet Yellen told FOX Business’ Edward Lawrence in an exclusive interview.

In early June 2021, Yellen had tamped down inflationary concerns, claiming rising costs and the contributing factors were "transitory," a term used to describe temporary market conditions.

"We have in recent months seen some inflation, and we – at least on a year-over-year basis – will continue, I believe through the rest of the year, to see higher inflation rates, maybe around 3 percent," Yellen said that June. "But I personally believe that this represents transitory factors."

Just one year after her comments, inflation surged to 9.1%, which had not been seen in four decades. Fast-forward to this week, when Labor Department data indicated inflation unexpectedly ticked higher in February thanks to a jump in the cost of gasoline and rent, climbing to 3.2% year-over-year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-walks-back-transitory-inflation-claims-i-regret-saying-it/ar-BB1jT60n

[Dreamcasting]

They've lost control. Get those rates up to the correct level. NOW.

[Frankie Teardrop]

Higher highs, higher lows.

[fellow]

On 13/03/2024 at 15:35, Stewy said:

Are you expecting a -0.2% in one of the months, if so why? 

There's still time for January's GDP to be revised down from the provisional estimate.

I think Jan was boosted by strong retail sales due to prices being slashed in the January sales following a terrible December, and this boost is unlikely to be repeated and will likely go into reverse in Feb. I also think the economy (and house prices) are being temporarily propped up to some extent by redundancy payments from all the job losses we have seen in the last quarter.

We still have tens of thousands of low fixed rate mortgages moving to higher rates each month causing an incremental drag on the economy. Mortgage rates have also been ticking up in Feb & March so I can't see where any growth will come from for the rest of the quarter.

We might see some growth from April due to the NI cut and the minimum wage, pension & benefit increases but this will likely be inflationary so will keep rates high for longer. However, the minimum wage rise might also end up being a jobs killer so could actually lower GDP.

Edited March 14 by fellow

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

On 13/03/2024 at 17:28, Stewy said:

2.4% growth on the latest stats  📈

I doubt it very much looking at the geopolitical hellscape. Macron talking about troops to Ukraine... heaven knows what in the ME. 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

9 hours ago, cdd said:

Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, oil prices rising with shock potential.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2024-03-14/

Backs up my earlier point... and this will likely get worse, and worse. Escalation. 

[Stewy]

9 hours ago, fellow said:

There's still time for January's GDP to be revised down from the provisional estimate.

I think Jan was boosted by strong retail sales due to prices being slashed in the January sales following a terrible December, and this boost is unlikely to be repeated and will likely go into reverse in Feb. I also think the economy (and house prices) are being temporarily propped up to some extent by redundancy payments from all the job losses we have seen in the last quarter.

We still have tens of thousands of low fixed rate mortgages moving to higher rates each month causing an incremental drag on the economy. Mortgage rates have also been ticking up in Feb & March so I can't see where any growth will come from for the rest of the quarter.

We might see some growth from April due to the NI cut and the minimum wage, pension & benefit increases but this will likely be inflationary so will keep rates high for longer. However, the minimum wage rise might also end up being a jobs killer so could actually lower GDP.

A lot of redundancy payments are peanuts really unless it's a juicy contract from the previous century.

Remember people used to talk about the "pink pound" and the gays' impact on the economy. A lot of disposable income.

We will see a similar effect from the current (white) under 40s who aren't having kids in any meaningful amounts... A lot of disposable income, once the initial tricky few post-uni years have passed.

You already see this in quite a few satellite towns of big cities where they move to late-20s when city centres and partying get a bit too much for them. 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

under 40s don't have much disposable income - there lies the issue - they are not having kids because they don't have the spare cash! Don't even have enough cash to buy a home. Housing is hitting economic activity and demographics. 

Was just speaking to someone during a business meeting - someone who had moved out of London as needed an income of £80,000 just to pay rent and other basic housing costs (on a non homeshare) in their homeplace. So they are out of London but with a much lower salary... 

[winkie]

7 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said:

under 40s don't have much disposable income - there lies the issue - they are not having kids because they don't have the spare cash! Don't even have enough cash to buy a home. Housing is hitting economic activity and demographics. 

Was just speaking to someone during a business meeting - someone who had moved out of London as needed an income of £80,000 just to pay rent and other basic housing costs (on a non homeshare) in their homeplace. So they are out of London but with a much lower salary... 

London no longer pays for very many Londoners.....there are other places still with much more room for growth.

[scottbeard]

33 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said:

under 40s don't have much disposable income - there lies the issue - they are not having kids because they don't have the spare cash! Don't even have enough cash to buy a home. Housing is hitting economic activity and demographics. 

Was just speaking to someone during a business meeting - someone who had moved out of London as needed an income of £80,000 just to pay rent and other basic housing costs (on a non homeshare) in their homeplace. So they are out of London but with a much lower salary... 

I don't think that's true, or at least I think it's only a part of the picture and not even necessarily a big part.

There are plenty of people in my circles who are couples of two professionals, total income >£200k, massive house, who only have 1 child.  I think that there a lot more reasons behind it, to do with lifestyle in part and also the fact that in Western socierty people dont rely on children to look after them in old age.   

[Stewy]

Just now, scottbeard said:

I don't think that's true, or at least I think it's only a part of the picture and not even necessarily a big part.

There are plenty of people in my circles who are couples of two professionals, total income >£200k, massive house, who only have 1 child.  I think that there a lot more reasons behind it, to do with lifestyle in part and also the fact that in Western socierty people dont rely on children to look after them in old age.   

People staying as "kids" until it's too late.

Noone has any harsh realities to make them grow up nowadays...everything is easy and life is luxurious...living like Princes...  👑

[winkie]

4 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I don't think that's true, or at least I think it's only a part of the picture and not even necessarily a big part.

There are plenty of people in my circles who are couples of two professionals, total income >£200k, massive house, who only have 1 child.  I think that there a lot more reasons behind it, to do with lifestyle in part and also the fact that in Western socierty people dont rely on children to look after them in old age.   

True, they will rely on the private sector instead.......renting later in life, renting housing and renting care needs......in one hand out the other........got no children, all have is self to look after.