Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 Oh what was I saying, again. Bond Traders Are Preparing for a 5% Yield, No Rate Cut World https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/bond-traders-shift-thinking-to-a-5-yield-no-rate-cut-world?srnd=homepage-uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 On 18/01/2024 at 20:54, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: Food inflation is going to get very interesting between now and June... it slipped in the run up to Xmas... now... not so much. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/02/uk-grocery-inflation-food-price-rises-brexit-costs Thought I'd bump this post from January. I'm not sure interesting is the right word any more though. I also think we might start to see shortages soon, particularly in vegetables and possibly milk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 26 minutes ago, Timm said: I also think we might start to see shortages soon, particularly in vegetables and possibly milk. Vegetables - yes with this bad wet weather Why milk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 7 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Vegetables - yes with this bad wet weather Why milk? https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/milk-shortage-ukraine-brexit-farmers_uk_624ad6c4e4b0587dee6c4175 Who knows....lots of stories about....nothing will be getting any cheaper.....except perhaps house prices?.....all those that do actually produce will want more, more mouths to feed....we prefer to plant wild flowers.... Very pretty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 (edited) 44 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Vegetables - yes with this bad wet weather Why milk? It's a bit tenuous, which is why I said possibly. But milk yields, production and deliveries have been falling for years and are expected to fall further this year. https://ahdb.org.uk/news/dairy-march-forecast-update-marginal-decline-expected-in-gb-milk-production-for-2024-25 Quote GB milk production is forecast to reach 12.25bn litres for the 2024/25 season, which is back by 0.6% compared to the previous milk year. The current milk year’s (2023/24) production is estimated to end the year at 0.6% down compared to 2022/23 at 12.32bn litres. Reduced yield has been one of the driving factors, which will contribute to lower production with herd size only seeing very minimal change. Wet weather during the last few months is likely to delay in turning out of the cows on the ground and will limit grass utilisation to an extent. (...) Quote Our baseline assumptions for the coming year are of yields falling whilst the rate of decline will be less in the first half of the year compared to second half. Yield through the summer and winter months are likely to slow down to between -0.5% to -2.5%. But the reason for me including it as a possibility is because of its high visibility as a staple. I think one or two scary stories might be enough to trigger shelf clearing on the lines that we have previously seen with salad, hand sanitiser and, y'know, bog roll. Because it is difficult to hoard, I am aware that such a shortage may not last for very long, which would of course be A Good Thing. On reflection, perhaps I should have gone with chips. Edited April 16 by Timm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 On 16/04/2024 at 14:15, Timm said: It's a bit tenuous, which is why I said possibly. But milk yields, production and deliveries have been falling for years and are expected to fall further this year. https://ahdb.org.uk/news/dairy-march-forecast-update-marginal-decline-expected-in-gb-milk-production-for-2024-25 But the reason for me including it as a possibility is because of its high visibility as a staple. I think one or two scary stories might be enough to trigger shelf clearing on the lines that we have previously seen with salad, hand sanitiser and, y'know, bog roll. Because it is difficult to hoard, I am aware that such a shortage may not last for very long, which would of course be A Good Thing. On reflection, perhaps I should have gone with chips. milk production is shifting so much - due to economic pressures - could easily end up with major problems. was speaking to local baker today and he said flour costs had shot up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 9 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: milk production is shifting so much - due to economic pressures - could easily end up with major problems. was speaking to local baker today and he said flour costs had shot up. Wheat prices have collapsed since January 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 2 minutes ago, Stewy said: Wheat prices have collapsed since January 🤔 that was my understanding - he'd marked up all his products by around 10-20% this week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 6 minutes ago, Stewy said: Wheat prices have collapsed since January 🤔 And absolutely cratered since 2022. But to be fair to the baker, they are up about 10% in the last month or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 Oh dear - inflation is no longer going down. What a mess. As I warned back in January - the data suggested this, then! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-04-17/what-s-moving-uk-markets-right-now-markets-today?srnd=homepage-uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 4 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: Oh dear - inflation is no longer going down. What a mess. As I warned back in January - the data suggested this, then! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-04-17/what-s-moving-uk-markets-right-now-markets-today?srnd=homepage-uk Fell this month, will crumble next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 7 minutes ago, Stewy said: Fell this month, will crumble next. Sadly It won't. There's been some food discounting (no doubt supported by profits at the multiples) - other than that... no. Abysmal forecasting once again by the usual suspects. Heaven knows where my forecasting ends up (I think my bosses keep it under wraps for their own competitive advantage lol!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 I don't hold much GBP but I'm still happy to receive 5% interest for a bit longer. Thankfully no mortgage 😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joris Bohnson Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 1 hour ago, Stewy said: Fell this month, will crumble next. Just like yields are you mean? 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 On 16/04/2024 at 14:15, Timm said: It's a bit tenuous, which is why I said possibly. But milk yields, production and deliveries have been falling for years and are expected to fall further this year. https://ahdb.org.uk/news/dairy-march-forecast-update-marginal-decline-expected-in-gb-milk-production-for-2024-25 But the reason for me including it as a possibility is because of its high visibility as a staple. I think one or two scary stories might be enough to trigger shelf clearing on the lines that we have previously seen with salad, hand sanitiser and, y'know, bog roll. Because it is difficult to hoard, I am aware that such a shortage may not last for very long, which would of course be A Good Thing. On reflection, perhaps I should have gone with chips. Looks like I was wrong. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/23/grocery-price-inflation-prices-retailers-easter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Petrol prices on UK forecourts hit 150p a litre. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68881429 What punters save on gas and leccy they pay extra to fill their tanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 23 Author Share Posted April 23 On 17/04/2024 at 16:22, Stewy said: Fell this month, will crumble next. Interest rate hike beginning to be priced in - in the USA: https://www.ft.com/content/8c5da64b-766e-4993-86f5-aac95342432a Economic activity data on the upside here in the UK... Too much stimulus, basically - the politicians and central banks are at fault. Inflation will come down - next reading - but after that all bets are off... may even follow the US up again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted Thursday at 17:06 Author Share Posted Thursday at 17:06 On 17/04/2024 at 16:22, Stewy said: Fell this month, will crumble next. After a weaker than expected GDP reading but stronger than expected PCE Price Index, another rate cut was just priced-out. < the USA. The data will continue moving in this direction partly due to Ukraine... higher oil prices coming through right now... stimulus from defence sector, here (war rather than defence but hey...) The inflation data here in the UK will look OK at the next reading, then worsen steeply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted Thursday at 17:18 Share Posted Thursday at 17:18 10 minutes ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said: The inflation data here in the UK will look OK at the next reading, then worsen steeply. I keep seeing this hopium now - the acceptance that I was right about us hitting target BUT BUT BUT "just you wait, it's going higher again". It's pure copium because this wasn't the message the same people were saying six months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted Thursday at 17:23 Share Posted Thursday at 17:23 5 minutes ago, Stewy said: I keep seeing this hopium now - the acceptance that I was right about us hitting target BUT BUT BUT "just you wait, it's going higher again". It's pure copium because this wasn't the message the same people were saying six months ago. You said base rate cuts nailed on 6 months ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted Thursday at 17:36 Author Share Posted Thursday at 17:36 (edited) 15 hours ago, Stewy said: I keep seeing this hopium now - the acceptance that I was right about us hitting target BUT BUT BUT "just you wait, it's going higher again". It's pure copium because this wasn't the message the same people were saying six months ago. Sadly it's just the data - I don't really care one way or the other as have a house and no mortgage. I work for a bank doing forward forecasting and so on. The data told us all that numerous IR cuts were unlikely this year - that has been proven to be correct. The problem is every analyst I know was suggesting the same back in January - the media screaming the opposite... now we move into reality the media changes its tune but doesn't apologise for its misleading nonsense. Edited Friday at 09:17 by Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted Thursday at 17:59 Share Posted Thursday at 17:59 On 23/04/2024 at 15:26, Frankie Teardrop said: Petrol prices on UK forecourts hit 150p a litre. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68881429 What punters save on gas and leccy they pay extra to fill their tanks. Said punters need to get one of these and save themselves thousands every year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted Thursday at 18:05 Share Posted Thursday at 18:05 5 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Said punters need to get one of these and save themselves thousands every year! Spend less time on the internet and also keep fit. It's a win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted Thursday at 18:08 Share Posted Thursday at 18:08 1 minute ago, Dreamcasting said: Spend less time on the internet and also keep fit. It's a win. A win-win. Day after day after day. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted Thursday at 19:17 Share Posted Thursday at 19:17 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/interest-rate-cut-less-likely-after-global-commodity-prices-level-off-6mz9c0dl3 Delays to rate cuts likely as commodity prices level off The World Bank says energy and food prices are unlikely to push down inflation this year as they did over the previous 12 months Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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