frederico Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Yep it’s all over hpc cancelled again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Armus said: No, it’s not true. ONS accounts for weight / size of the product not the unit size it’s sold for in the shops. A lot of products have been re-formulated. Lots of tricks going on in the supermarket Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, Warlord said: A lot of products have been re-formulated. Lots of tricks going on in the supermarket Air and water are cheap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, kzb said: Sprouts, broccoli, carrots, parsnips, now all 15p per pack at Tesco. This is cheaper than last Christmas where they were 20p a bag (although admittedly I've not checked the pack sizes. Been on TV this morning that demand for caviar is at a record and they can't keep up with sales. 25% deflation right there. It probably costs more to cook them, unless done in the microwave (actually quite good for sprouts). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 (edited) I noticed Cash ISA Fixed rates have dropped in the last day or two. Looks like we might not even see a year of normal interest rates after all that. Gove was waffling on about a return to "normal" interest rates in his housing speech this week, worryingly I think he meant normal as in lower than now. Edited December 20, 2023 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulip_mania Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Gas + Electric are down (seems flat v govt payment last year, but for ONS price is down) Petrol/Diesel is down Food seems pretty flat in last 6 months. Anything related to car maintenance, purchase, or home improvements is up a lot. Mortgage is flat (fixed for a few years yet) I think the numbers announced seem resonable, though note CPIH is higher as OOH costs increasing as people remortgage, the problem is that none of us is probably a statistical average, so we all have different experiences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stewy said: 25% deflation right there. It probably costs more to cook them, unless done in the microwave (actually quite good for sprouts). They do that every Christmas......all supermarkets want to encourage foot flow into their stores, only got so much to spend, only need to spend so much.......re 15p bags of veg, peel, prepare, and blanch 2mins in boiling water then plunge into cold water, cool, bag and freeze....onions best kept as are store in cool dark dry place same with potatoes.....potatoes however can freeze if cook first, mashed potato freezes well, otherwise peel and pre boil as if to make crispy roasts but cool and freeze, then when need to roast most of the work already done, important to label well and rotate use within six months or so...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, BaldED said: No. And never have. @scottbeard is the only one that believes the official figures whether it be inflation or the daddy of all GDP. The global mind of a billion + on the stock market don't believe it either. I believe that they are an accurate calculation of what they are intended to measure, not just a made up number CPI systematically and by design understates the actual level of inflation most people face, lets be clear about that But it's a calculation from thousands of data points, not just a man in a room going "oooh let's throw out a number less than 4% to help Andrew Bailey out" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Most news outlets are quite telling in what they're really taking from this. eg. "raised hopes that the Bank of England will begin cutting interest rates sooner than expected. " https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67769782 Sucker rate mortgage up for renewal is it? You'd better hope Big J at the Fed bails you out then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 If anyone thinks we are going back to low low rates they are in for a rude awakening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, staintunerider said: If anyone thinks we are going back to low low rates they are in for a rude awakening! Is this the Bargaining phase? 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 41 minutes ago, Huggy said: Most news outlets are quite telling in what they're really taking from this. eg. "raised hopes that the Bank of England will begin cutting interest rates sooner than expected. " https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67769782 Sucker rate mortgage up for renewal is it? You'd better hope Big J at the Fed bails you out then. https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/stockmanhow-fed-wrecked-dream-homeownership As has been discussed there's a lot of homes that are not going to be put on the market with folk sitting on 30 year 3 % fixes something that does not exist here... What it doesn't say is what I think it was wolf richter at wolf street......is thats not quite the story...sure these folk sit tight and are not selling but they also ain't buying so its actually a net zero sum game.....they have removed their properties from the selling pool but they are not in the buying pool... Now here in the Uk there is none of this 30 year 3% stuff.....folk are coming off short term fixes to higher fixes or svr rates....many i have already read have to go to svr or a fix with current lender...THEY CANNOT SHOP AROUND AS THEY DON'T QUALIFY for other lender deals...so limitied options.... Prices are dropping in the US....what keeps the market from imploding here ? NOT Much ! Hopium I would say! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, staintunerider said: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/stockmanhow-fed-wrecked-dream-homeownership As has been discussed there's a lot of homes that are not going to be put on the market with folk sitting on 30 year 3 % fixes something that does not exist here... What it doesn't say is what I think it was wolf richter at wolf street......is thats not quite the story...sure these folk sit tight and are not selling but they also ain't buying so its actually a net zero sum game.....they have removed their properties from the selling pool but they are not in the buying pool... Now here in the Uk there is none of this 30 year 3% stuff.....folk are coming off short term fixes to higher fixes or svr rates....many i have already read have to go to svr or a fix with current lender...THEY CANNOT SHOP AROUND AS THEY DON'T QUALIFY for other lender deals...so limitied options.... Prices are dropping in the US....what keeps the market from imploding here ? NOT Much ! Hopium I would say! Little cut and paste from the link: Actually, true mortgage rates are still sub-normal. What is way too high are home prices, and that condition is absolutely attributable to decades of interest rate repression, which is now taking a second bite of the apple owing to a severe, cheap-mortgage “lock-in” effect that is keeping millions of homes off the market. With respect to super-cheap mortgage rates during the past decade and more, the home price inflation mechanism is simple: Homes are the quintessential leveraged asset—with current outstanding mortgage debt equal to nearly $13 trillion. Accordingly, the marginal bid for properties is heavily debt financed, meaning that the lower real interest rates, the higher the market-clearing price of properties. But now that home prices have been driven sky-high by cheap mortgage debt, prospective home buyers are being monkey-hammered by an economic double whammy. To wit, instead of going down as interest rates rise per the normal laws of economics, home prices are still going up owing to artificially scarce availability of units for sale. So when you multiply a higher mortgage rate times even higher home prices you get monthly mortgage payments that are way out of reach for an increasing share of US households. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, staintunerider said: But now that home prices have been driven sky-high by cheap mortgage debt, prospective home buyers are being monkey-hammered by an economic double whammy. To wit, instead of going down as interest rates rise per the normal laws of economics, home prices are still going up owing to artificially scarce availability of units for sale. So when you multiply a higher mortgage rate times even higher home prices you get monthly mortgage payments that are way out of reach for an increasing share of US households. I think he's completey wrong on the last part...prices are falling....with some exceptions like detroit which is starting from totally ******* busted and Miami and Florida where folk are flocking to leave Democrat states and driving prices up... All those on fixes are not buyers he misses that completely..... Credit cost and availability are what price property not stock of properties....its irrelevant about the stock...the buyers must be able to afford and get the credit......and increasingly they can;t Wolf Street has covered this.... Makes many salient points like why prices are expensive but prices are tanking now regardless they are not going up... Edited December 20, 2023 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Just now, staintunerider said: I think he's completey wrong on the last part...prices are falling.... All those on fixes are not buyers he misses that completely..... Credit cost and availability are what price property not stock of properties....its irrelevant about the stock...the buyers must be able to afford and get the credit......and increasingly they can;t Wolf Street has covered this.... Makes many salient points like why prices are expensive but prices are tanking now regardless they are not going up... Here;'s canada https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/14/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-toronto-19-from-peak-back-to-sept-2021-hamilton-area-25-back-to-feb-2021-new-high-in-calgary/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, staintunerider said: Here;'s canada https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/14/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-toronto-19-from-peak-back-to-sept-2021-hamilton-area-25-back-to-feb-2021-new-high-in-calgary/ Here's US https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/21/home-sales-collapse-prices-drop-further-supply-jumps-people-are-finally-on-buyers-strike/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, frederico said: Yep it’s all over hpc cancelled again. Nope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 It's going to be a massive 2024 recession/depression in the UK, US and Europe, imo. I've got UB40's greatest hits on standby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hullabaloo82 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 5 hours ago, Warlord said: YES! It's truly magical! Government's can print money without consequence or inflation! Amazing isn't it ! Boom time! I don't think anybody's saying there's no consequences are they? We've had a period of much higher inflation than in previous years and various other consequences, not least a largely static housing market when, at times, inflation was running at 10% or more. Lots of these consequences (eg fiscal drag) will be with us for years to come but it seems fairly likely that once wage inflation catches up a bit more (most likely in the new year), rates will fall again and mortgage rates will be more expensive than effectively nothing, like at times during the pandemic, but still ultimately pretty cheap. We ain't building anything like enough new homes and we've absorbed something like a net million plus additional people over the last 2 years alone. Regardless of whatever you believe the consequences of money creation are, if you think that mixture adds up to anything other than HPI, I have a bridge to sell you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 hour ago, simon99 said: I noticed Cash ISA Fixed rates have dropped in the last day or two. Looks like we might not even see a year of normal interest rates after all that. Gove was waffling on about a return to "normal" interest rates in his housing speech this week, worryingly I think he meant normal as in lower than now. It will be at mnost less than 1.0 of rate cuts if that.....check out the lord king interview....."low rate experiment went on too long" he knows they are not going back to where they were.....chances are as time goes on they will tick up again over this decade..... Tooth = Pull fast or slow UK Real Estate = Pull fast or slow] End result, it's happening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, staintunerider said: It will be at mnost less than 1.0 of rate cuts if that.....check out the lord king interview....."low rate experiment went on too long" he knows they are not going back to where they were.....chances are as time goes on they will tick up again over this decade..... Tooth = Pull fast or slow UK Real Estate = Pull fast or slow] End result, it's happening! I hope we don't see a return to the lunacy of ZIRP, but he's not at the helm any more, and the BoE often talk a tough game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smuf-ww Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: It's going to be a massive 2024 recession/depression in the UK, US and Europe, imo In an election year for the US and UK? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted December 20, 2023 Author Share Posted December 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Hullabaloo82 said: I don't think anybody's saying there's no consequences are they? We've had a period of much higher inflation than in previous years and various other consequences, not least a largely static housing market when, at times, inflation was running at 10% or more. Lots of these consequences (eg fiscal drag) will be with us for years to come but it seems fairly likely that once wage inflation catches up a bit more (most likely in the new year), rates will fall again and mortgage rates will be more expensive than effectively nothing, like at times during the pandemic, but still ultimately pretty cheap. We ain't building anything like enough new homes and we've absorbed something like a net million plus additional people over the last 2 years alone. Regardless of whatever you believe the consequences of money creation are, if you think that mixture adds up to anything other than HPI, I have a bridge to sell you. HPI is bad for society. Shelter from the rain is needed for everyone, whether they are a debtor or not. The establishment want homeless people on the news because it sends a message to the serfs that if you don't work in a non job for 50 years, this could be you. It's embarrassing for all involved who call themselves civilised. Printers, borrowers the lot. Nothing civilised about western consumer capitalism. The Romans had a more civilised society 2000 years ago. Today in 2023 we have fiat printing/borrowing animals who will all pay the price for being rat scum, eventually. Time is marching on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hullabaloo82 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 4 hours ago, smuf-ww said: That is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read. Wage demands are going to fall away. More people are about to lose their jobs. Wage demands usually lag inflation given people don't typically negotiate a raise or change jobs more than once a year. There's also a slightly counterintuitive effect whereby loss of lower paid jobs can drive up earnings data by removing the low end of average or median calculations. The UK has seen a K shaped recovery since covid; lots of people have been on low mortgage rates and wfh since the pandemic and a lot more have also changed jobs or at least pushed up earnings through leverage during the "great resignation". These are the people actually buying houses and they will absorb the shock of remortgaging or taking out a new loan, especially if we're look at the return of sub 3% loans. There may well be job losses but I'm not sure it will move the needle as much as some hope. For starters, vacancies are still high, even as numbers on payrolls start to dip. The rental market still seems to defy gravity, not least because the supposed fiscal hawks in the Conservative party seem desperate to prop it up with subsidies of all kinds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smuf-ww Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: HPI is bad for society. Shelter from the rain is needed for everyone, whether they are a debtor or not. Van Life. The answer was and is there all along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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