Are young people poised to slam the brake on endless economic growth?

[Confusion of VIs]

On 04/12/2023 at 10:52, kzb said:

I think you are missing the point here.

Now, I personally don't give these model forecasts any credibility.  But a lot do, and so if you believe it, you should be pleased that GDP is 4% smaller.  It basically means 4% less damage to the environment.

So, I am asking which is it?  Are you angry that the economy is 4% poorer or do you want to recover that 4% ?   Which is it?

You are right 4% has no credibility, that was a figure provided by the OBR operating under constraints dictated to it by the government. These included ignoring the losses that occured before we exited, no long term affect on business investment and assuming ongoing mass immigration. 

Have a listen to the interview Mark Carney gave a couple of weeks ago, where he explains that "project fear" is being more than fully delivered and that Brexits impact on investment has put us a path towards a 10% loss of GDP. 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, regprentice said:

What happens when you cant afford your subscriptions anymore.

You've lost your job and need to write your CV, but your subscription to Office 365 has expired. No CV writing for you. There are free alternatives but recruiters dont accept anything other than word docs, and theres no guarantee a file in Libre office saved in word format will look 100% the same to a recruiter using word as it did when you saved it.

So you want to print your CV instead of mail it.... but your ink subscription for your HP printer has expired. You now find it wont print despite having ink in it, and that its now locked against using cartridges that arent part of the ink subscription programme. If you can afford 1 month on the cheapest 99p subscription level only lets you publish 10 pages a month.... thats probably just 3 cvs. 

In a similar situation (needing to print a disclosure certificate for the next day) i went to my local library to find they have PCs but no printers. Internet cafes dont seem to exist anymore, printings actually difficult without your own printer. 

in the meantime while you wait to hear if you have a job you cant listen to music, read ebooks, watch TV on a streaming service, or even access the internet. You put on weight because you've lost access to peleton or apple fitness. When your friends come round to your house to check if you are ok you dont realise they are at the door because your ring doorbell subscription has expired. 

That all seems rather grim to me.

Fortunately it is not a realistic scenario.

3 hours ago, winkie said:

Not all subscriptions are discretionary some are very necessary a cartel or a monopoly with no price or even service competition. 

Same issues affect the stuff you buy.

[Confusion of VIs]

20 hours ago, kzb said:

You've gone off piste here.  Unless you are disagreeing with the question in this thread?

You are saying that young people are not poised to slam the brake on economic growth?  That in fact economic growth is important for young people ?

The link with more physical stuff and economic growth is being broken.  Moving to a more circular economy will make higher living standards possible without trashing the environment. 

 

[regprentice]

28 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Fortunately it is not a realistic scenario.

In what way.

one in four UK adults has less than £100 in savings link. The second those people lose their job their discretionary monthly payments will have to stop. Spotify, Netflix, Peleton...even your ring doorbell will all stop. 

Those are all legitimate examples - for example HP are subject to a class action suit in America right now for remotely locking consumers out of printers that they paid for up front but they the customer subsequently stopped paying an optional monthly fee for printer cartridges  link. 

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by regprentice

[14stFlyer]

3 hours ago, Money Frugality said:

turn net zero on migration not climate. 

How about net zero on migration AND climate?

I think you are on to something with “net zero” inward migration. It will appeal to a lot of people and is clearly a fair and thoughtful policy which recognises people will want to both leave Britain and enter Britain and simply links the two. 
 

Obviously there are short term issues with skills so, as with climate there will need to be a transition period.  But the concept has merit. 

[14stFlyer]

dupl

Edited December 5, 2023 by 14stFlyer

[winkie]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Fortunately it is not a realistic scenario.

Same issues affect the stuff you buy.

Subscription is for stuff you buy via renting it......give an example, once went away for six months, could cancel broadband, CT, telephone, electricity and gas services.......today would have to continue paying whether using services or not......if not in a fixed deal the cost month to month would be so much more, pay as you go is becoming more of a rarity.......can you imagine calling up the phone company or council today and saying can you hold payments for six months.....BT used to and would give you the same number as had before back again...... impossible today, land lines are being done away with over time, when our mobile services are still dire and patchy at best in many parts of the country......the national grid goes down we would all be totally stranded, no tinternet, no car/ transport, no electricity, no heating, no light, no banking services no WiFi streaming services would continue to pay for.......just saying.

[kzb]

3 hours ago, Money Frugality said:

Hell no, get that ****** Sunak out cancel all foreign gifting & turn net zero on migration not climate. 

But who do you vote for to stop it ?

All the signs are that Labour, Green or Libdem would, if anything, increase the handouts?

[Confusion of VIs]

46 minutes ago, regprentice said:

In what way.

one in four UK adults has less than £100 in savings link. The second those people lose their job their discretionary monthly payments will have to stop. Spotify, Netflix, Peleton...even your ring doorbell will all stop. 

Those are all legitimate examples - for example HP are subject to a class action suit in America right now for remotely locking consumers out of printers that they paid for up front but they the customer subsequently stopped paying an optional monthly fee for printer cartridges  link. 

 

Basic free or ad supported options are generally available. 

What about the equally large problem of people who cannot afford to buy everything up front?  

 

[kzb]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You are right 4% has no credibility, that was a figure provided by the OBR operating under constraints dictated to it by the government. These included ignoring the losses that occured before we exited, no long term affect on business investment and assuming ongoing mass immigration. 

Have a listen to the interview Mark Carney gave a couple of weeks ago, where he explains that "project fear" is being more than fully delivered and that Brexits impact on investment has put us a path towards a 10% loss of GDP. 

 

 

OK people should be even more pleased.  That's 10% less resources used, and so about 10% less damage to the planet.  This isn't another Brexit thread you know.

[kzb]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The link with more physical stuff and economic growth is being broken.  Moving to a more circular economy will make higher living standards possible without trashing the environment. 

 

"Higher living standard" (as opposed to "more money"), basically equates to more resources used per person.

[Social Justice League]

16 hours ago, MarkG said:

What people like Moonbat really mean is that the Guardianistas should have everything they want and the proles should be happy with the scraps that fall from the 'elites' table.

Just standard old communism.

That said, I know quite a few people who are tired of the system and just want a place in the country with some chickens and goats. Consumerism for the sake of consuming was really a Boomer thing and it's dying out.

100% agree.

[regprentice]

30 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Basic free or ad supported options are generally available. 

I generally don't find thats the case. if i do find a free version of something it tends to print a watermark, have a maximum file size, or time out after a set time (say 28 days). 

I've been told by a recruiter previously that MS word is "industry standard" and you mark yourself out as an outlier if your CV isnt in word format. As i posted recently a vacancy doing my job has just been advertised and there were 400 applicants. You cant afford to make the recruiters life difficult ... if your cv is in an odd format, wont open easily in word, or formats oddly when opened they wont spend any time trying to get your CV to "work" they just move onto one of the other 399 CVs they've received  

30 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What about the equally large problem of people who cannot afford to buy everything up front?  

I agree, its an issue for government as its effectively price fixing.

MS used to charge £800 for a copy of MS Office. Instead of taking MS to task the government allowed them to continue to charge these prices - even to government and councils. Then they allowed them to drift into monthly payments.

i've made the same point previously about cars  ... the drift towards monthly payments masks the horrific inflation in the OTR price of cars.

There are two ways i see you could achieve this

• Government sets prices at what the public can afford. This already happens globally -  Microsoft , Netflix, Spotify charge customers in Pakistan, Argentina and Turkey a tenth what they charge customers in the UK for the same product
• Companies are obliged to operate at a set Profit Margin, for example cost+10%.

[scottbeard]

5 hours ago, regprentice said:

What happens when you cant afford your subscriptions anymore.

You've lost your job and need to write your CV, but your subscription to Office 365 has expired. No CV writing for you. There are free alternatives but recruiters dont accept anything other than word docs, and theres no guarantee a file in Libre office saved in word format will look 100% the same to a recruiter using word as it did when you saved it.

Rather than leaving my friend at the doorbell, I will proactively go around to his house and say "Hi John, any chance I can just borrow your laptop for a couple of hours to send off a job application?"

5 hours ago, regprentice said:

in the meantime while you wait to hear if you have a job you cant listen to music, read ebooks, watch TV on a streaming service, or even access the internet. You put on weight because you've lost access to peleton or apple fitness. When your friends come round to your house to check if you are ok you dont realise they are at the door because your ring doorbell subscription has expired. 

However I can put the radio on, head down to the library to pick up a couple of books, watch BBC and ITV TV on a normal TV, and get some exercise at no cost by going for a walk or run (parkrun is free to enter for example).

Oh and if someone's doorbell isn't working I tend to knock loudly on the door - not sure about you?

[regprentice]

32 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Rather than leaving my friend at the doorbell, I will proactively go around to his house and say "Hi John, any chance I can just borrow your laptop for a couple of hours to send off a job application?"

However I can put the radio on, head down to the library to pick up a couple of books, watch BBC and ITV TV on a normal TV, and get some exercise at no cost by going for a walk or run (parkrun is free to enter for example).

Oh and if someone's doorbell isn't working I tend to knock loudly on the door - not sure about you?

To qualify for UC you need to spend 35 hours a week looking for work. it wont be long until borrowing a laptop for that long becomes an imposition. 

You wont be watching BBC or ITV , or listening to BBC radio, without a TV licence. 

Thats not quite the point though. im trying to demonstrate that monthly payments are slowly becoming ingrained in modern life for many, mainly younger, people. 20 years ago the idea that your doorbell, or your typewriter or even the heater in your car would stop working if you didnt pay money every month would have been laughable. todays its a reality.

Edited December 5, 2023 by regprentice

[scottbeard]

4 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Thats not quite the point though. im trying to demonstrate that monthly payments are slowly becoming ingrained in modern life for many, mainly younger, people. 20 years ago the idea that your doorbell, or your typewriter or even the heater In your car would stop working if you didnt pay money every month would have been laughable. todays its a reality  

I know, and you're also ignoring the point I'm making which is that there are more ways around these things than you might first think.  

I also think you can look at this very differently.  For example:

- I own many hundreds of books and CDs that I almost never read or play.   Why have a house full of things you don't use when you can pay for a streaming service that has constant new updates?  Every year I slowly throw more and more of them away.  One day I'll eventually bite the bullet and just junk them.

- You say it was laughable for your appliances to stop working if you stopped paying: not in the days of Radio Rentals it wasn't.  Many people paid for all sorts of appliances on hire purchase or just renting.

- The idea that once you've bought a thing it's yours forever for no more cost is also rubbish: remember how we all had our favourite films on VHS?  Then had to rebuy them on DVD? etc

7 minutes ago, regprentice said:

You wont be watching BBC or ITV , or listening to BBC radio, without a TV licence. 

In relation to TV that was also true 20 years ago so not relevant to your argument about streaming being bad.  In relation to radio that's false and you don't need a licence.

[regprentice]

10 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

In relation to TV that was also true 20 years ago so not relevant to your argument about streaming being bad.  In relation to radio that's false and you don't need a licence.

i was recently unable to listen to radio without confirming my tv licence, but that was through the iplayer app. I'm  not sure how else a young person would do it as most dont own an analogue radio and i tried the BBC sounds App but it simply didnt work on my wifi (but did work if i switched wifi off and selected 4g - but that needlessly hammers my data)

17 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The idea that once you've bought a thing it's yours forever for no more cost is also rubbish: remember how we all had our favourite films on VHS?  Then had to rebuy them on DVD? etc

if we'd been having this conversation 20 years ago then my point at the time was that i should only have to pay the pressing cost of a DVD is i already owned the VHS. that never happened but I don't recall ever buying a DVD of a film i already owned on VHS  

18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

you say it was laughable for your appliances to stop working if you stopped paying: not in the days of Radio Rentals it wasn't.  Many people paid for all sorts of appliances on hire purchase or just renting.

 

That was also a debt trap for the working classes.

we went beyond that in the 70s and early 80s into a halycon period of "ownership"... home ownership, car ownership and so on. Somehow we are now regressing and suddenly theres no pride in having no personal debt. Instead of personal freedom we are happy to have an american corporation control what we watch and.listen to and to milk us dry every month for the privilege. 

If things cary on going backwards this then in ten years they be brining back slavery and segregation. 

back to your main point, there are ways around these things.... why should there be? i didnt need to find an alternative to ringing a doorbell until an american corporation decided to monetise the ringing of doorbells. Thats the problem, not me.

[scottbeard]

35 minutes ago, regprentice said:

i was recently unable to listen to radio without confirming my tv licence, but that was through the iplayer app.

https://www.tvlicensing.co.uk/faqs/

Do I need a TV Licence to listen to the radio?

No, you do not need a TV Licence to listen to the radio (including on BBC Sounds).

 

35 minutes ago, regprentice said:

we went beyond that in the 70s and early 80s into a halycon period of "ownership"... home ownership, car ownership and so on. Somehow we are now regressing and suddenly theres no pride in having no personal debt. Instead of personal freedom we are happy to have an american corporation control what we watch and.listen to and to milk us dry every month for the privilege. 

If things cary on going backwards this then in ten years they be brining back slavery and segregation. 

In going to unpick several things here:

- Halcyon period of ownership:  the issue is that in the 1970s/80s/90s the UK actually was actually functioning well, we had hard workers and good industries.  The problem now is half the country on benefits and all of the country buying stuff from China.  That's the issue, not Netflix.

- Debt revulsion: we are talking here about a subscription model, which doesn't involve debt.   So a fair point but not really relevant.

- Americans milking us dry :  it's an OPTIONAL discretionary purchase.  No-one is forced to buy these things.  People who do are not feeling "milked dry" they are happy with the service they are paying for, and the day they aren't they cancel.

35 minutes ago, regprentice said:

back to your main point, there are ways around these things.... why should there be? i didnt need to find an alternative to ringing a doorbell until an american corporation decided to monetise the ringing of doorbells. Thats the problem, not me.

Your point seemed to be that they are bad because if you have no money you can't have the stuff - but frankly it's always the case that if you lose your job then you can't afford as good a lifestyle.  All we are debating is what precisely you don't have.  Even with a normal doorbell it needs batteries and if you're unemployed you may not have the money to replace them.

[Bear Necessities]

 

5 hours ago, regprentice said:

In what way.

one in four UK adults has less than £100 in savings link. The second those people lose their job their discretionary monthly payments will have to stop. Spotify, Netflix, Peleton...even your ring doorbell will all stop. 

Those are all legitimate examples - for example HP are subject to a class action suit in America right now for remotely locking consumers out of printers that they paid for up front but they the customer subsequently stopped paying an optional monthly fee for printer cartridges  link. 

 

The doorbell thing is bullsh*t.

We have a Blink doorbell which is similar to ring. It came with a free subscription, but when that ran out you can still use the doorbell locally. Losing the subscription doesn't mean you can't hear someone at the door, that's just nonsense. In the case of blink the doorbell still rings on all the devices without the subscription and it also stores video locally on the hub memory card. 

Also if I choose I can get a regular doorbell with batteries or that wires into the house that has no fancy features but just needs new batteries occasionally. Nobody has removed that option from me.

The subscription gives you premium features like cloud storage and remote access, but they aren't as basic features as "being able to use it as a doorbell like the doorbells people have had for decades."

same for spotify, if you have to lose the sub because you can't afford it each month then you can drop down to the free tier where you listen to it with adverts on.  You don't lose access to the music, you just lose the extra premium features (so it ends up more like the radio than your own personal jukebox). and then I could listen to the radio instead if I didnt want to use spotify at all. 

If they lose their Peloton subscription, the bike doesnt stop working. You can still exercise on it. It doesn't lock the wheels. you just lose the premium features like having a motovational tw*t telling you to pedal faster.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Bear Necessities

[Social Justice League]

2 hours ago, regprentice said:

i was recently unable to listen to radio without confirming my tv licence, but that was through the iplayer app. I'm  not sure how else a young person would do it as most dont own an analogue radio and i tried the BBC sounds App but it simply didnt work on my wifi (but did work if i switched wifi off and selected 4g - but that needlessly hammers my data)

if we'd been having this conversation 20 years ago then my point at the time was that i should only have to pay the pressing cost of a DVD is i already owned the VHS. that never happened but I don't recall ever buying a DVD of a film i already owned on VHS  

That was also a debt trap for the working classes.

we went beyond that in the 70s and early 80s into a halycon period of "ownership"... home ownership, car ownership and so on. Somehow we are now regressing and suddenly theres no pride in having no personal debt. Instead of personal freedom we are happy to have an american corporation control what we watch and.listen to and to milk us dry every month for the privilege. 

If things cary on going backwards this then in ten years they be brining back slavery and segregation. 

back to your main point, there are ways around these things.... why should there be? i didnt need to find an alternative to ringing a doorbell until an american corporation decided to monetise the ringing of doorbells. Thats the problem, not me.

I'm proud to have no debt and it's easy to use a Bit Torrent client for all your entertainment needs.

All modern TV's have USB ports that can connect to massive external hard drives and can read just about every video file format under the sun.

[Bear Necessities]

3 hours ago, regprentice said:

I generally don't find thats the case. if i do find a free version of something it tends to print a watermark, have a maximum file size, or time out after a set time (say 28 days). 

I've been told by a recruiter previously that MS word is "industry standard" and you mark yourself out as an outlier if your CV isnt in word format. As i posted recently a vacancy doing my job has just been advertised and there were 400 applicants. You cant afford to make the recruiters life difficult ... if your cv is in an odd format, wont open easily in word, or formats oddly when opened they wont spend any time trying to get your CV to "work" they just move onto one of the other 399 CVs they've received  

I agree, its an issue for government as its effectively price fixing.

MS used to charge £800 for a copy of MS Office. Instead of taking MS to task the government allowed them to continue to charge these prices - even to government and councils. Then they allowed them to drift into monthly payments.

i've made the same point previously about cars  ... the drift towards monthly payments masks the horrific inflation in the OTR price of cars.

There are two ways i see you could achieve this

• Government sets prices at what the public can afford. This already happens globally -  Microsoft , Netflix, Spotify charge customers in Pakistan, Argentina and Turkey a tenth what they charge customers in the UK for the same product
• Companies are obliged to operate at a set Profit Margin, for example cost+10%.

It's a good job that it takes all of 10 seconds to save out a CV as a .docx format in the free online software Google Docs then (or the free version of Word online). And it looks identical 99% of the time and nobody is any the wiser.  And if you aren't certain it looks the same you can open your saved file in a free microsoft word viewer provided by microsoft themselves to check it looks the same. 

But sure you could also make up reasons why you can't print it because of subscriptons. (nobody has sent a CV in the post to anyone in the last 15 years, because it would make you look like a luddite who can't use email, hell why not fax it over?)

[Bear Necessities]

2 hours ago, regprentice said:

20 years ago the idea that your doorbell, or your typewriter or even the heater in your car would stop working if you didnt pay money every month would have been laughable. todays its a reality.

I don't think many people were using typewriters by 2003, but if they were. If they needed a new ribbon, and couldn't afford to pay the money for a new one, then their typewriter would stop working.  If you consider buying ribbons (or for printers ink cartridges) in a shop every time they run out,  is essentially not dissimilar from a subscription for the same.

The car heated seat thing - (was it BMW?) was short-lived. so today it isn't a reality because you are right it was laughable and they had to scrap the idea.

[Si1]

2 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

I'm proud to have no debt and it's easy to use a Bit Torrent client for all your entertainment needs.

All modern TV's have USB ports that can connect to massive external hard drives and can read just about every video file format under the sun.

I torrented a few moves and had serious quality issues, in particular poor audio sync. Thought it wasn't worth it compared to actually pretty cheap streaming / digital renting (if you're sensible)

[regprentice]

Just now, Bear Necessities said:

 

The doorbell thing is bullsh*t.

We have a Blink doorbell which is similar to ring. It came with a free subscription, but when that ran out you can still use the doorbell locally. Losing the subscription doesn't mean you can't hear someone at the door, that's just nonsense. In the case of blink the doorbell still rings on all the devices without the subscription and it also stores video locally on the hub memory card. 

The subscription gives you premium features like cloud storage and remote access, but they aren't as basic features as "being able to use it as a doorbell like the doorbells people have had for decades."

same for spotify, if you have to lose the sub because you can't afford it each month then you can drop down to the free tier where you listen to it with adverts on.  You don't lose access to the music, you just lose the extra premium features (so it ends up more like the radio than your own personal jukebox).

If they lose their Peloton subscription, the bike doesnt stop working. You can still exercise on it. It doesn't lock the wheels. you just lose the premium features like having a motovational tw*t telling you to pedal faster.

I think for spotify you can listen to a playlist or album as if it were the radio with adverts but its not easy to choose songs from your liked songs and stop and start them as you like?

I never had a Peleton bike but i had an app subscription. when they trebled the price i had to leave the service. i quite liked some of the motivational twats on there. 

For doorbells i have a eufy doorbell which functions the same as ring or blink, but doesnt have a subscription and is no more expensive up front.

You wouldnt have paid £100+ for a doorbell to use it like youve been able to use doorbells for decades. 

[MarkG]

52 minutes ago, Bear Necessities said:

If you consider buying ribbons (or for printers ink cartridges) in a shop every time they run out,  is essentially not dissimilar from a subscription for the same.

Of course it is. I have some old and expensive software where the developers are eager to get me onto a subscription instead of actually owning it. That means if I stop paying them I lose the use of the software and the terabyte or two of data which is stored in the format that software uses.

If I have a typewriter, if I don't feel like paying their 'subscription' for ink ribbons, I can spend a day making my own. That is not an option for that software. They want to be able to hold my data hostage if if stop paying.

And yes, I should really dump it and replace it with something equivalent that's not retarded but I don't use it enough any more to justify spending the time to find an alternative and convert all the files.

It's all just tiresome rent-seeking from companies which can't do anything to justify people repeat-buying their products.

Edited December 5, 2023 by MarkG