Timm Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Â https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/august2023 Nothing much to add really, but the graph does look very much like early 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 What's the MoM figure? I can't work it out from that link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Timm said:  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/august2023 Nothing much to add really, but the graph does look very much like early 2008. Down from 0.7% (revised estimate, hmmm) in August. About -0.5% MoM? Edit. I worked it out from test numbers rather than one YoY result less the other, although they do tie up that way too....🤔 Edited October 18, 2023 by Huggy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, scottbeard said: What's the MoM figure? I can't work it out from that link https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-august-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 This is quite important too: "The amount of time between the sale of a property and the registration of this information varies. It typically ranges between 2 weeks and 2 months but can be longer. Volume figures for the most recent 2 months are not yet at a reliable level for reporting, so they are not included in the report." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Frankie Teardrop said: This is quite important too: "The amount of time between the sale of a property and the registration of this information varies. It typically ranges between 2 weeks and 2 months but can be longer. Volume figures for the most recent 2 months are not yet at a reliable level for reporting, so they are not included in the report." Sales figures and mortgage approvals figures have been low since 2008. Been a bit of a false markey for 15y now. ZIRP has allowed peopel to clign onto too much housing for too long. Now IR ave turned everythign has changed. Last 15+y has only seen the odd house near me come onto th amrket. Last 6 moths has seen more For Sale signs than then the last ~10y combined.    Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 29 minutes ago, Frankie Teardrop said: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-august-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2023 Compare this to the figure £295,903 actually reported in August 2022's release and you get: -1.66% YoY https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-august-2022/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 They almost certainly revised August 2022 down months after the fact. The figures really should state they are not comparing like-to-like but provisional to revised. Lies, damned lies and statistics... Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Small seasonal adj'd difference too 2 hours ago, Frankie Teardrop said: They almost certainly revised August 2022 down months after the fact. The figures really should state they are not comparing like-to-like but provisional to revised. Agreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggus Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 At first glance this looks like bad news. But I don't see any fundamental reason to be pessimistic. We simply had a bad month. You should not expect to see prices go down in a straight line. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, Biggus said: At first glance this looks like bad news. But I don't see any fundamental reason to be pessimistic. We simply had a bad month. You should not expect to see prices go down in a straight line. Â The rate of falls in the rate of HPI looks remarkably consistant to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Tbf this data is so lagging it probably from Mar/Apr? Tracking rates we saw them still coming down until April so this represents that time in my book. Coupled with "its not going to be that bad, rates are falling, everything will be fine"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frankie Teardrop Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 I suspect within a year those annual changes are showing -5 to -10% as the data eventually makes its way thro the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 22 minutes ago, Frankie Teardrop said: I suspect within a year those annual changes are showing -5 to -10% as the data eventually makes its way thro the system. I agree. Thanks for posting the graph - the percentage change has collapsed from about 14% to close to zer in less than 6 months. It is likely IMHO that the line will continue to fall through zero into negative territary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Absolutely plateaued. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 56 minutes ago, Stewy said: Absolutely plateaued. What a totally unexpected response from you 🙄. TBH, I'm disappointed. Isn't AI supposed to learn and adapt itself so you can't tell it's not human. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, dpg50000 said: What a totally unexpected response from you 🙄. TBH, I'm disappointed. Isn't AI supposed to learn and adapt itself so you can't tell it's not human. It's an accurate and succinct word and therefore a good use of language ✓✓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Around only 15% of properties are included in the latest Land Registry figures. There is a good chance these figures are derived from the highest-priced selling houses so the figures could certainly be fudged. Inflation still going up at 6.7% (to get the true inflation figure just double this number), fudged. Looks like inflation is not transitory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newgi Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 On 18/10/2023 at 11:24, Timm said:  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/august2023 Nothing much to add really, but the graph does look very much like early 2008. Also looks like early 2011. The early 2008 drop showed 10.6% from Jul 2007 to -7.2% in Aug 2008 whereas this drop is 13.8% to 0.2% over the same period (admittedly with a likely revision but that could go either way). As to "the percentage change has collapsed from about 14% to close to zero in less than 6 months", I don't see that. It's more like 13 months from Jul 22 to Aug 23. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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