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Biggus

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  1. Has anyone who had the vaccine taken the magnet challenge? Is it nonsense or is there something to it? https://wickedtruths.org/en/the-magnet-challenge
  2. As you say it's important to note the difference between inflation caused by bank credit, typically lent against a particular asset class and general price increases caused by an increase in monetary base. Bank credit creates bubbles which distort markets and later burst, creating a lot of misery. Inflation in base money ought generally to cause increases in overall price levels. I'll call overall general price rises inflation, for the sake of simplicity. High overall price increases are a bit of a nightmare. Not really noticable at first, one begins to spend an ever higher proportion of income on necessities. Imagine the price of pertol going up to £2 per litre, bread going up to £3 per loaf, higher gas and electricity bills and so on. You may have to cut back a bit. Then prices go up by a similar proportion the next year and the next. You get poor over time, especially if you're on a fixed income. Government expences also increase leading them to print more perpetuating the cycle. There are other effects, such as erosion of capital and difficulties faced by businesses attempting to plan for the future and so on. You could fill a book with the effects. Hyperinflation is an unimaginable nightmare. Fuel is not available. Electricity is typically shut off for large periods of time. Shops are empty. Savings, pensions and so on become worthless. People resort to barter for food and get really, really bd deals. There's a story in a book I once read of a woman exchange her grand piano for a sacl of spuds. A grand piano would cost about 50k, so go figure. People acutally starve to death. Society breaks down. It's really not something you want to see.
  3. If rates went up there would be a spectacular crash. Not just in stocks, but also bonds, housing and anything else that's in a credit bubble. There would be defaults and banks would have to write down debts, probably a some would go bust. The US would go broke pretty quickly, as they have no intention of balancing their budget and debt payments would skyrocket. There would be huge unemployment as credit dependent firms went bust. The other choice is even worse. To keep rates low and keep printing until the dollar is worthless. The result would basically be an end to most economic activity. State employees are paid with worthless paper. Pensions and state benefits become worthless. Farms and factories stop production as they would be paid in worthless paper. Nothing is available to buy in stores and people go hungry. Imports stop as exporters don't want worthless nothing in exchange for thei goods an services. Full on economic collapse. That's the choice thanks to twenty years of incredibly, unbelievably bad policy. In keeping with past performance I'm betting they go gor the second option. They wont believe it's even possible until it happens. And it's inevitable if rates are never allowed to increase and money is continually printed.
  4. He sounds like a Labour chancellor. I don't see the budget being balanced any time soon. Interest rates will remain low to keep borrowing low for the oversized, juggernaught state. The public will pays with higher living costs.
  5. Gold is down sharply today. I have a suspicion that some European banks are in trouble with the Basel 3 deadline around the corner. Efforts, such as the French government selling gold to bail them out are underway. Gold price could go down even more. The media is reporting the reason for the drop is the Fed saying it might raise interest rates in a few years. Maybe that's the real reason. Or maybe there's some other reason I'll never find out. Either way I was stopped out. I'll buy back in when the correction looks to be over.
  6. Brexit's consequence was the ability to enter trade talks with India. There is no obligation to reach any agreement. An agreement that lowers the standard of living of a huge portion of the country would be incredibly inept. Imigration is an election winner or loser. In Europe the French military are warning about a civil war over the issue. So, really, I doubt the deal will go ahead if it is not very much in the interests of the UK.
  7. It's interesting that the velocity of money is low. The Keynsians have been telling us that lower interest rates will encourage economic ativity. Instead low interest rates seem to have a stifling effect on the economy. Take a look at this Of course it's always tempting to see a correlation and jump to conclustions. It could be that rates were lowered in response to a decline in economic activity. At first glance, though, it does not look like lower rates are causing people to spend more. The opposit seems to be true, with Increasing rates having a stimulous effect on the turnover of money.
  8. Remember when the oil price went negative last year? What happened if you opened a long cash position when it was negative, would your account go negative and get a margin call? When it crossed zero was everyone wiped out? Crazy.
  9. 'Vlieghe rejected the idea that increases in the money supply, commodity prices or wages were poised to send the inflation rate permanently above the government’s 2% target. “Comparisons with the 1970s are misplaced,” he said.' That's the Bank's answer to the inflation people are experiencing? Ther are completely crackers! I don't know how bad inflation really is because the stats have been falsified. But when you can feel it you know it's bad. But really, holding interest rates at zero and printing money for decades and they actually think this is not going to be inflationary? A pack of monkeys would do a better job. We're at the point where a lot of people think a complete systemic collapse would be a good thing. Inflation eats away savings, interest rates on savings are basically at zero and houses are stupidly expensive. Taxes are also incredibly high. Yields on equities are are low and they are overvalued. People are being pushed into speculation in an attempt to achieve financial security. Bubbles everywhere. The BOE would be a joke, were they not impoverishing the population. We really need to get rid and replace them with sound money and interest rates set by the market.
  10. We're in the middle of a battle between market forces and the printing press. For a long time central bank money creation seemd to have the upper hand. But it looks like the tide is finally turning. People sometimes compare inflation to turning an oil supertanker around. It takes a long time and a lot of effort to get it to turn. It would take a similar effort to make it turn back the other way. Back in the '80s Milton Friedman put it like this The consequences of letting inflation run rampant are dire. Inflation grows as a portion of itself, or can be expressed exponentially. Eventually it causes complete collapse. But to turn it around the pain would be extraordinary. Here's a comment from today's daily mail. ' nflation is a ticking timebomb in these circumstances. If it seriously takes hold, the recourse has to be higher interest rates. And any rise in rates would be murderous for home buyers, who have taken on oversized mortgages in the belief that low interest rates are here for ever. It could lead to a cascade of defaults on payments, to plunging house prices and negative equity causing misery across the land. But it’s not just homeowners. Higher interest rates would be equally troubling for over-borrowed firms, plunging countless ‘zombie’ companies — those currently protected by low interest rates and Covid borrowing schemes — into insolvency.' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9597783/ALEX-BRUMMER-Theres-timebomb-heart-economy-fear-started-tick.html Yes, we could still turn this around. But it would be really, really painful. Allowing inflation to take off would be much worse, but is easier politically. It's been a long time coming, but it looks like the inflatinary chickens are finally coming home to roost.
  11. Gold is now above the 200 dma on the daily. Golden cross is forming. The technicals are very bullish. (The last candle is a shooting star man, btw, so possibly a pullback tomorrow) The fundamentals also make a bullish case. Inflation is rocketing and there are is signs of the Fed tightening. Also June 28th is a key date for Basel 3. From what I've been told a lot of the gold bucket shops will be shutting down on this date.
  12. Shift in sentiment for sure. The aligator is done with his meal of bulls. Now he is eating bears. He looks hungry.
  13. I like gold because everyone is so bearish. The Fed just printed trillions and is continuing to print and inflation is rearing its ugly head, yet suddenly everyone hates gold? There are some solid fundamental reasons for getting into gold now. The technicals also look good, so I'm going to trade gold for a while and hopefully ride the bull I think is coming. But you should never take advice from a salesman.
  14. A very good buy. Even if people don't sell now and lose a pile of money there will be another bitcoin bubble in a couple of years. There was a guy who sold his house to buy bitcoin a few bubbles back and was crushed in the crash. But, if he kept them, he'll be happy now. Not that I'm saying hold. You should sell now and buy back later, if you like bitcoin. Edit - Don't take investment advice from me or you will go broke.
  15. Yes, it's well below the 50 day moving average, for the first time since the bubble really took off. It's going down. Best say something about gold, as we're in the gold thread. This guy seems to know what he's talking about
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