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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Biggus

  1. If rates went up there would be a spectacular crash. Not just in stocks, but also bonds, housing and anything else that's in a credit bubble. There would be defaults and banks would have to write down debts, probably a some would go bust. The US would go broke pretty quickly, as they have no intention of balancing their budget and debt payments would skyrocket. There would be huge unemployment as credit dependent firms went bust. The other choice is even worse. To keep rates low and keep printing until the dollar is worthless. The result would basically be an end to most economic activity
  2. He sounds like a Labour chancellor. I don't see the budget being balanced any time soon. Interest rates will remain low to keep borrowing low for the oversized, juggernaught state. The public will pays with higher living costs.
  3. Gold is down sharply today. I have a suspicion that some European banks are in trouble with the Basel 3 deadline around the corner. Efforts, such as the French government selling gold to bail them out are underway. Gold price could go down even more. The media is reporting the reason for the drop is the Fed saying it might raise interest rates in a few years. Maybe that's the real reason. Or maybe there's some other reason I'll never find out. Either way I was stopped out. I'll buy back in when the correction looks to be over.
  4. Brexit's consequence was the ability to enter trade talks with India. There is no obligation to reach any agreement. An agreement that lowers the standard of living of a huge portion of the country would be incredibly inept. Imigration is an election winner or loser. In Europe the French military are warning about a civil war over the issue. So, really, I doubt the deal will go ahead if it is not very much in the interests of the UK.
  5. It's interesting that the velocity of money is low. The Keynsians have been telling us that lower interest rates will encourage economic ativity. Instead low interest rates seem to have a stifling effect on the economy. Take a look at this Of course it's always tempting to see a correlation and jump to conclustions. It could be that rates were lowered in response to a decline in economic activity. At first glance, though, it does not look like lower rates are causing people to spend more. The opposit seems to be true, with Increasing rates having a stimulous effect on the turnover o
  6. Remember when the oil price went negative last year? What happened if you opened a long cash position when it was negative, would your account go negative and get a margin call? When it crossed zero was everyone wiped out? Crazy.
  7. 'Vlieghe rejected the idea that increases in the money supply, commodity prices or wages were poised to send the inflation rate permanently above the government’s 2% target. “Comparisons with the 1970s are misplaced,” he said.' That's the Bank's answer to the inflation people are experiencing? Ther are completely crackers! I don't know how bad inflation really is because the stats have been falsified. But when you can feel it you know it's bad. But really, holding interest rates at zero and printing money for decades and they actually think this is not going to be inflationary? A pack of
  8. We're in the middle of a battle between market forces and the printing press. For a long time central bank money creation seemd to have the upper hand. But it looks like the tide is finally turning. People sometimes compare inflation to turning an oil supertanker around. It takes a long time and a lot of effort to get it to turn. It would take a similar effort to make it turn back the other way. Back in the '80s Milton Friedman put it like this The consequences of letting inflation run rampant are dire. Inflation grows as a portion of itself, or can be expressed exponenti
  9. Gold is now above the 200 dma on the daily. Golden cross is forming. The technicals are very bullish. (The last candle is a shooting star man, btw, so possibly a pullback tomorrow) The fundamentals also make a bullish case. Inflation is rocketing and there are is signs of the Fed tightening. Also June 28th is a key date for Basel 3. From what I've been told a lot of the gold bucket shops will be shutting down on this date.
  10. Shift in sentiment for sure. The aligator is done with his meal of bulls. Now he is eating bears. He looks hungry.
  11. I like gold because everyone is so bearish. The Fed just printed trillions and is continuing to print and inflation is rearing its ugly head, yet suddenly everyone hates gold? There are some solid fundamental reasons for getting into gold now. The technicals also look good, so I'm going to trade gold for a while and hopefully ride the bull I think is coming. But you should never take advice from a salesman.
  12. A very good buy. Even if people don't sell now and lose a pile of money there will be another bitcoin bubble in a couple of years. There was a guy who sold his house to buy bitcoin a few bubbles back and was crushed in the crash. But, if he kept them, he'll be happy now. Not that I'm saying hold. You should sell now and buy back later, if you like bitcoin. Edit - Don't take investment advice from me or you will go broke.
  13. Yes, it's well below the 50 day moving average, for the first time since the bubble really took off. It's going down. Best say something about gold, as we're in the gold thread. This guy seems to know what he's talking about
  14. Nothing wrong with bitcoin, if you buy at the right time. But when the price goes up from about 5k to about 60k in a couple of months it's time to sell and buy back later. The problem is that people get too emotionally involved. Same with gold and silver. There's a time to buy and a time to sell.
  15. Well, it could go up or down. But that's not what I said. In the absence of a market downturn I'm actually expecting gold to move sideways, or have a slight upward trend for a while. This is the called accumulation phase. 'Dow theory asserts that major market trends are composed of three phases: an accumulation phase, a public participation (or absorption) phase, and a distribution phase. The accumulation phase (phase 1) is a period when investors "in the know" are actively buying (selling) stock against the general opinion of the market. During this phase, the stock price does not chang
  16. It does look like we are moving into the accumulation stage of the cycle. I'm also dipping my toes in to test the water. Everybody's wary of the frothy stock market, so I am not into calls but am looking at mining stocks instead. Also using a tight stop loss. Maybe I should hedge with a dow put. I like the look of Centamin right now. Here's what I'm seeing A hammer followed by a DOJI, an engulfing candle then three (actually four) rising methods. Up trend looks good. But beware. A falling tide sinks all ships. Watch out for a market correction.
  17. The 1 trillion is nonsense. A huge pile of those bitcoins were mined by Satoshi and a couple of other early adopters, years ago. If they ever even moved the market would crash like a stone. Loads more have been lost over the years. Remember too it's not a bank. There's no money backing it. Just bids on an exchange. With the speed of the price rise restitance on the way down is going to be weak. You will see how weak resistence is in the coming crash.
  18. Thinking about it I could set up a cascade of puts, take the bitcoin gains and sell them on the open market. Drive the price down to bring my next put in the money and repeat. Single handedly crash the entire bitcoin market. Heh.
  19. Option to sell 1000 btc at 50k. So far out of the money it should have cost about 20 bucks. 1 million per drop of 1000 dollars. 10k btc price target, 50 mil profit. I'm going to be too late. In fact this is why btc is not taken seriously. If you want to speculate on a price rise you buy a call for 100 btc. It would cost you less than 1 btc and every time the price goes up 1k you get 100k. You are not supposed to scrape your money together and buy the underlying asset if you are speculating. Take the speculation away and the price of btc reverts to it's actual real value. Speculation
  20. Sure. There have been five bitcoin bubbles exactly like this one but this time it's different. Wont need suicide support threads on foums this time. This is the big one! Interestingly it's difficult to find anyone dumb enough to sell me bitcoin puts. I've been trying to get a bitcoin options account set up all week, so that I can cash in on the massive crash that's coming.
  21. First let me make this clear. Whatever you do don't take investment advice from me. You'll lose all your money. I've been hearing about shortages in pms, especially in the silver market. Mints running out of available coins and so forth. When people have the money to buy something but the product is not available the price is too low. Also heared that mines are not delivering silver as they are waiting for the price to increase. I'm getting more bullish on silver than gold in the short term. Also this is a pretty good discussion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J99fm7ssGIc
  22. You guys must be seeing something I'm not. To me it looks like people are buying because the price is going up and they believe it will make them rich. There is some underlying value in btc, sure. But sixty thousand dollars? Really? How would you calculate that value? Given the choice between your body weight in silver, one hundred and fifty gold sovereigns or one digital token, you want the digital token? I don't see it. Not disputing the price could continue to rise. Could hit a hundred thousand or a million. I don't know, but honestly, do you think it really worth that much? Take
  23. So much information goes into a price. Mine output, exchange rates, central bank purchases, Indian jewelery demans, comex action and on and on. They all go into a single number. So there's no possible way I'm going to be able to pick a bottom. I'm just not that smart. So I'm not going to try. What I can do is look at the macro and see where I think the price should be going and I can follow a trend. The macro is all about inflation. If you think inflation is going up you want to be getting out of tech and into companies that can respond to inflation. For me that means companies producing
  24. Seems like safe havens, like gold and bonds, are being sold. I think because people feel there are gains to be made elsewhere as the economy opens up after the Corona. So yields are up and gold is down. Gold cares more about inflation than interest rates, so I'm not worried about the effect of rates on the gold price. But to me it looks like inflation is on the up. I don't see any slow down in central bank printing or in defecit spending. That makes me a gold bull. I'm betting we see a new all time high this year. But now does not look like a good time to buy in. Take a look at the chart
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