“We could sell but no one could afford to buy”

[Mancunian284]

Decided this deserved it’s own thread….The last paragraph in particular.  Is Amanda Osborne bankrupt?  

“Amanda Osborne, who owns five buy-to-let properties on variable rate mortgages, told MailOnline: 'Our income hasn't increased by that much. And obviously we cannot increase our tenants rent by 89 per cent to match these increases and certainly not as rapidly as the interest rates have gone up. It's simply unaffordable on incomes as they are.

More interest rate increases, which seem inevitable given the BofE approach to this mess, is simply not affordable.

So we are in a situation where we could sell but no one can afford to buy or we increase tenants rent so that it is unaffordable and they can't pay?”

[Huggy]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11255321/Mortgage-market-turmoil-continues-HSBC-Santander-suspend-new-deals-Nationwide-hikes-rates.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

So you're not in a position to sell then are you Mandy?

One very quick tweak to your expectations will change that though! Immediately.

[Smiley George]

[Dames]

It's comin home .........

to roost.

 

D

[Mancunian284]

18 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

😂

[Brendan110_0]

Nobody wants to work anymore.....

Nobody wants to buy homes anymore....  

Excellent news for me, my wife and young daughter. Mortgage overpaid 2008 - now, £900 left to go. No MEW'ing, no credit card debts, store cards etc. Nice car on PCP, both work so wife allowed a luxury to go with her horse.

Hopefully some bargains to be had for my daughter in the next decade.

[TerryBoi]

This is a VERY important thread.

I hope it doesn't get buried.

This is exactly what's happened in the US.

The real-estate market has split into 4 groups.

1. People who have 30 year mortgages at 1% fixed and can't afford to move up (mortgage rate now 7%) so they don't sell.
2. First time buyers who have jobs and deposits but have been priced out of mortgages @ 7% so they can't afford to buy.
3. Old people with no mortgages who are ready to sell now and can discount HARD.
4. Relatively small group of cash buyers (HPC forum types) sitting with mega cash sums on the sidelines.

#3 plus divorce are starting to hit the market now hard and fast.

#4 are starting to get BIG discounts.

It took a little time.

The reality is that #3 + divorce is providing vastly more than enough inventory than #4 can ever scoop up.

Soon it will be #3 + divorce + repossessions ... things get real spicy.

#1 and #2? They're fukked, forget about them for about 5 years.

Edited September 28, 2022 by TerryBoi

[TheCountOfNowhere]

54 minutes ago, Mancunian284 said:

Decided this deserved it’s own thread….The last paragraph in particular.  Is Amanda Osborne bankrupt?  

“Amanda Osborne, who owns five buy-to-let properties on variable rate mortgages, told MailOnline: 'Our income hasn't increased by that much. And obviously we cannot increase our tenants rent by 89 per cent to match these increases and certainly not as rapidly as the interest rates have gone up. It's simply unaffordable on incomes as they are.

More interest rate increases, which seem inevitable given the BofE approach to this mess, is simply not affordable.

So we are in a situation where we could sell but no one can afford to buy or we increase tenants rent so that it is unaffordable and they can't pay?”

 

[Si1]

Which conservative constituency party is she a member of?

[longgone]

57 minutes ago, Mancunian284 said:

Decided this deserved it’s own thread….The last paragraph in particular.  Is Amanda Osborne bankrupt?  

“Amanda Osborne, who owns five buy-to-let properties on variable rate mortgages, told MailOnline: 'Our income hasn't increased by that much. And obviously we cannot increase our tenants rent by 89 per cent to match these increases and certainly not as rapidly as the interest rates have gone up. It's simply unaffordable on incomes as they are.

More interest rate increases, which seem inevitable given the BofE approach to this mess, is simply not affordable.

So we are in a situation where we could sell but no one can afford to buy or we increase tenants rent so that it is unaffordable and they can't pay?”

Whack em in to auction with no reserve.

Time and tested way to shift over priced prole palace chitboxes.

[Casual-observer]

4 minutes ago, TerryBoi said:

This is a VERY important thread.

I hope it doesn't get buried.

This is exactly what's happened in the US.

The real-estate market has split into 4 groups.

1. People who have 30 year mortgages at 1% fixed and can't afford to move up (mortgage rate now 7%) so they don't sell.
2. First time buyers who have jobs and deposits but have been priced out of mortgages @ 7% so they can't afford to buy.
3. Old people with no mortgages who are ready to sell now and can discount HARD.
4. Relatively small group of cash buyers (HPC forum types) sitting with mega cash sums on the sidelines.

#3 plus divorce are starting to hit the market now hard and fast.

#4 are starting to get BIG discounts.

It took a little time.

The reality is that #3 + #4 is providing vastly more than enough inventory than #4 can ever scoop up.

#1 and #2? They're fukked, forget about them for about 5 years.

Yep, I mentioned this on a prior thread.

Financial divorce agreements made in a low interest rate world are now being blown out of the water, some going back as far as 5 years or more. 

A lot women who bought out their men to 'get the house' will find it's a millstone around their necks for the rest of their lives.

Plus you'll be seeing a lot of divorced men already doing the maths and realising how fruitless it is to stick around paying half a mortgage on a house  he's going to get nothing out of. Some will be better off going on the dole and declaring bankruptcy 

[HousePriceTooHigh]

Ms Osborne doesn't realise it yet, but she's already bankrupt...

[Huggy]

15 minutes ago, TerryBoi said:

This is a VERY important thread.

I hope it doesn't get buried.

This is exactly what's happened in the US.

The real-estate market has split into 4 groups.

1. People who have 30 year mortgages at 1% fixed and can't afford to move up (mortgage rate now 7%) so they don't sell.
2. First time buyers who have jobs and deposits but have been priced out of mortgages @ 7% so they can't afford to buy.
3. Old people with no mortgages who are ready to sell now and can discount HARD.
4. Relatively small group of cash buyers (HPC forum types) sitting with mega cash sums on the sidelines.

#3 plus divorce are starting to hit the market now hard and fast.

#4 are starting to get BIG discounts.

It took a little time.

The reality is that #3 + divorce is providing vastly more than enough inventory than #4 can ever scoop up.

Soon it will be #3 + divorce + repossessions ... things get real spicy.

#1 and #2? They're fukked, forget about them for about 5 years.

Number 3, meet number 4

 

 

and.....

[spyguy]

11 minutes ago, longgone said:

Whack em in to auction with no reserve.

Time and tested way to shift over priced prole palace chitboxes.

It's a property market not a property wishful thinking.

Markets work by clearing.

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

13 minutes ago, TerryBoi said:

This is a VERY important thread.

I hope it doesn't get buried.

This is exactly what's happened in the US.

The real-estate market has split into 4 groups.

1. People who have 30 year mortgages at 1% fixed and can't afford to move up (mortgage rate now 7%) so they don't sell.
2. First time buyers who have jobs and deposits but have been priced out of mortgages @ 7% so they can't afford to buy.
3. Old people with no mortgages who are ready to sell now and can discount HARD.
4. Relatively small group of cash buyers (HPC forum types) sitting with mega cash sums on the sidelines.

#3 plus divorce are starting to hit the market now hard and fast.

#4 are starting to get BIG discounts.

It took a little time.

The reality is that #3 + divorce is providing vastly more than enough inventory than #4 can ever scoop up.

Soon it will be #3 + divorce + repossessions ... things get real spicy.

#1 and #2? They're fukked, forget about them for about 5 years.

You forgot #5 which was the most common in the 1990s. Mortgage holder gets behind on mortgage. Bank repossesses house and sells it to the first person to offer more than the amount they are owned. That really hammered prices as the only properties selling were repossessions.

p.s. Unlike the U.S.A. the U.K. has never had "jingle mail" (hand the keys back and walk away from your debt) so that isn't even an option. 

[longgone]

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

It's a property market not a property wishful thinking.

Markets work by clearing.

Clearing needs price discovery 

[spyguy]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceTooHigh said:

Ms Osborne doesn't realise it yet, but she's already bankrupt...

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

1 minute ago, longgone said:

Clearing needs price discovery 

Like I just said the banks weren't interested in price discovery, just recovering the amount they were owed. 

[spyguy]

21 minutes ago, TerryBoi said:

This is a VERY important thread.

I hope it doesn't get buried.

This is exactly what's happened in the US.

The real-estate market has split into 4 groups.

1. People who have 30 year mortgages at 1% fixed and can't afford to move up (mortgage rate now 7%) so they don't sell.
2. First time buyers who have jobs and deposits but have been priced out of mortgages @ 7% so they can't afford to buy.
3. Old people with no mortgages who are ready to sell now and can discount HARD.
4. Relatively small group of cash buyers (HPC forum types) sitting with mega cash sums on the sidelines.

#3 plus divorce are starting to hit the market now hard and fast.

#4 are starting to get BIG discounts.

It took a little time.

The reality is that #3 + divorce is providing vastly more than enough inventory than #4 can ever scoop up.

Soon it will be #3 + divorce + repossessions ... things get real spicy.

#1 and #2? They're fukked, forget about them for about 5 years.

It's like water to a concrete dam.

Sooner or later, it wiggles in.

[Mancunian284]

38 minutes ago, TerryBoi said:

This is a VERY important thread.

I hope it doesn't get buried.

This is exactly what's happened in the US.

The real-estate market has split into 4 groups.

1. People who have 30 year mortgages at 1% fixed and can't afford to move up (mortgage rate now 7%) so they don't sell.
2. First time buyers who have jobs and deposits but have been priced out of mortgages @ 7% so they can't afford to buy.
3. Old people with no mortgages who are ready to sell now and can discount HARD.
4. Relatively small group of cash buyers (HPC forum types) sitting with mega cash sums on the sidelines.

#3 plus divorce are starting to hit the market now hard and fast.

#4 are starting to get BIG discounts.

It took a little time.

The reality is that #3 + divorce is providing vastly more than enough inventory than #4 can ever scoop up.

Soon it will be #3 + divorce + repossessions ... things get real spicy.

#1 and #2? They're fukked, forget about them for about 5 years.

I think sellers are stubborn and it will take a while here too.  
 

My expectations are a stalled market - sellers still listing at sky high prices for the next few months.  Lots of mumsnet threads with the title “why won’t my house sell?”.  They won’t sell and then eventually, those that have to sell will start cutting asking prices.  
 

Expecting asking price drops on forced sales from about January.  

[Quicken]

44 minutes ago, longgone said:

Whack em in to auction with no reserve.

Time and tested way to shift over priced prole palace chitboxes.

Lottery. Works every time

[Casual-observer]

5 minutes ago, Mancunian284 said:

I think sellers are stubborn and it will take a while here too.  
 

My expectations are a stalled market - sellers still listing at sky high prices for the next few months.  Lots of mumsnet threads with the title “why won’t my house sell?”.  They won’t sell and then eventually, those that have to sell will start cutting asking prices.  
 

Expecting asking price drops on forced sales from about January.  

Estate agents won't be letting people hang around for 4 months, they need to pay their own bills.  I can imagine a hell of a lot of tough conversations have already begun this week between switched on estate agents and sellers. People need to smell the coffee, the party is over. 

I expect supply to reduce a fair bit initially hoping for stability but on the flip side they can't hang round.

Zero-hedge pointed out that 26% of uk mortgages are on variables, people cannot hang around for long. 

37% are on 2 year fixed. 

Many homes will be going to auction regardless and other sellers will be under court orders from divorce settlements to sell. 

The clocks ticking 

 

[longgone]

40 minutes ago, TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack said:

Like I just said the banks weren't interested in price discovery, just recovering the amount they were owed. 

They still want to debt slave to buy back in

Hard if they are brassic.

[Mancunian284]

10 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

Estate agents won't be letting people hang around for 4 months, they need to pay their own bills.  I can imagine a hell of a lot of tough conversations have already begun this week between switched on estate agents and sellers. People need to smell the coffee, the party is over. 

I expect supply to reduce a fair bit initially hoping for stability but on the flip side they can't hang round.

Zero-hedge pointed out that 26% of uk mortgages are on variables, people cannot hang around for long. 

37% are on 2 year fixed. 

Many homes will be going to auction regardless and other sellers will be under court orders from divorce settlements to sell. 

The clocks ticking 

 

I’m not sure that many estate agents are switched on.  They’ve had to do nothing to sell a house for years, meaning estate agents are full of incompetent staff.  

[Casual-observer]

4 minutes ago, Mancunian284 said:

I’m not sure that many estate agents are switched on.  They’ve had to do nothing to sell a house for years, meaning estate agents are full of incompetent staff.  

They'll have their own mortgages to pay and kids to feed...necessity will kick in