The payrise thread

[Timm]

6.5% for me.

[Sackboii]

16 hours ago, fellow said:

I have one simple question for this thread:

 

With QT and a shrinking money supply, where will the money come from to sustain these above inflation pay increases?

 

Simple answer = it won't.

Well yes, it won't. Looking at these types of graphs though it seems to me that wage growth and inflation are about on a par with each other, albeit at different times. I am sure the same will continue, although I'd hope that they will both stop oscillating around each other and dampen themselves out as time goes on. But you will always get overshoot and undershoot when significant step changes in conditions are present.

But draw a straight line average between these two sets of data and they're almost identical.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Sackboii

[dugsbody]

On 07/12/2023 at 09:45, msi said:

Yet no one is asking the simple question.

 

Where is the money going?

Sorry what? Everyone is always asking that question.

And more importantly, we know where it is going because the figures are published. It is going on pensions, health and social care.

[A.steve]

9 hours ago, scottbeard said:

If the money  supply keeps falling very quickly inflation turns to deflation.  In that case even a pay CUT could still be a real terms increase.

I don’t think money supply growth will end up being negative for that long though at the gentle pace of current  QT 

Are you vying for a job as Union representative for collective pay bargaining?

More seriously, I think it doubtful that money supply has meaningfully contracted.  Sure, some measures showed a nominal decline over some brief periods... but those periods have been short.

I think the bigger problem is that we don't have any good way to measure a concept as vague as "the money supply".  There are lots of metrics which are thought to correlate with it... but any sensible interpretation of the concept itself is effectively beyond measurement. 

[Housepricecrash91]

Sainsbury’s increases pay as supermarkets battle for staff - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67883985

It will increase minimum pay for employees outside London to £12 an hour, with wages for staff in the capital increasing to £13.15 an hour.

Things are definitely heating up in terms of wages for unskilled work.... Soon people with decent experience and skilled jobs will be paid only slightly more than workers in the local supermarket. 

[clarkey]

47 minutes ago, Housepricecrash91 said:

Sainsbury’s increases pay as supermarkets battle for staff - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67883985

It will increase minimum pay for employees outside London to £12 an hour, with wages for staff in the capital increasing to £13.15 an hour.

Things are definitely heating up in terms of wages for unskilled work.... Soon people with decent experience and skilled jobs will be paid only slightly more than workers in the local supermarket. 

I guess it shows how important people who work in supermarkets are

[btl_hater]

I’ve never seen a more laidback worker than supermarket staff. Fair play to them, I guess!

[fellow]

13 minutes ago, clarkey said:

I guess it shows how important people who work in supermarkets are

Nope, it shows how undesirable the job is.

Edited January 4 by fellow

[clarkey]

8 minutes ago, fellow said:

Nope, it shows how undesirable the job is.

It goes to show that the supermarkets understand they need those people to make their massive profits. 

[PeanutButter]

2 hours ago, Housepricecrash91 said:

Sainsbury’s increases pay as supermarkets battle for staff - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67883985

It will increase minimum pay for employees outside London to £12 an hour, with wages for staff in the capital increasing to £13.15 an hour.

Things are definitely heating up in terms of wages for unskilled work.... Soon people with decent experience and skilled jobs will be paid only slightly more than workers in the local supermarket. 

Saw a guy steal 3 retail boxes of easter chocolate (I know) from Sains today. Just walked out with them. 

Staff looked half asleep.

[Housepricecrash91]

15 hours ago, clarkey said:

I guess it shows how important people who work in supermarkets are

Agreed. Most staff are important, thus why we see the constant crying from well off people and the press when staff go on strike.

15 hours ago, fellow said:

Nope, it shows how undesirable the job is.

I used to do it whilst at university. I didn't mind it, but yeah dragging heavy cages, being on your feet and dealing with the dregs of society wasn't great.

14 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Saw a guy steal 3 retail boxes of easter chocolate (I know) from Sains today. Just walked out with them. 

Staff looked half asleep.

That's what inflation does to you, you go to work and think why the hell do I bother. I feel like that currently working in an office job

 

[fellow]

Craft beer giant Brewdog abandons real living wage for employees

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67932569

Quote

 

Craft beer giant Brewdog will no longer pay its employees the real living wage.

Workers will receive the UK government's national minimum wage of £11.44 an hour from April - below the £12 cost of living-based rate.

The Aberdeenshire-based firm said the move was "necessary" as part of an effort to return to profitability after making a £24m operating loss last year.

But former staff have accused the company of "abandoning its principles" over the move.

A letter to employees, seen by BBC Scotland News, said "hard decisions" had to be taken in order to maintain financial stability despite a "bumper" festive period.

Brewdog, founded by James Watt and Martin Dickie, had paid the voluntary wage since 2015.

 

 

[a5042680]

Reckon our April rise will be in relation to the latest inflation rather than the past 12 months, can't wait for us all to be ripped off again...!

[Housepricecrash91]

7 minutes ago, a5042680 said:

Reckon our April rise will be in relation to the latest inflation rather than the past 12 months, can't wait for us all to be ripped off again...!

Yep, pay rises will either be low or non-existent in a lot of industries in April.

The pay rise pot at my last year at my previous company was 7%..... but the business then cut around 100 jobs...so I suspect a lot of companies will do something similar this year around year end

[Sackboii]

31 minutes ago, a5042680 said:

Reckon our April rise will be in relation to the latest inflation rather than the past 12 months, can't wait for us all to be ripped off again...!

Off course.. When inflation is running riot, pay rises are capped "because inflation won't always be this high, and we have to average it out over the year..", but when inflation is falling pay rises are low "because inflation is now falling..".

There's a pattern. It's been going on for hundreds of years.

[fellow]

Wage growth slows to 6.6%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67983212

Quote

 

Wage growth slowed again in the UK jobs market but is still outpacing price rises, official figures show.

Pay growth, excluding bonuses,fell sharply from 7.3% to 6.6% in the three months to November, although earnings are still rising faster than inflation.

But there are signs the jobs market is stalling as higher interest rates hit businesses, with the number of vacancies dropping.

Roles in the retail sector have seen the biggest fall in recent months.

The figures come as several big recruitment companies warned the jobs market was slowing down. Page Group, Hays and Robert Walters said confidence was weak among hiring companies and Page said the UK was its worst-performing market with profits down by around a fifth.

Between October and December, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell by 49,000 - the 18th month in a row that the number has fallen and the longest consecutive run of quarterly falls ever recorded.

But vacancies still remain above levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which calculates the latest jobs market figures.

The ONS said annual public sector pay growth (6.6%) in the three months to November last year overtook wage rises in the private sector (6.5%) for the first time since March 2021.

 

 

[a5042680]

3.5%

[Grayphil]

Just had my payrise starting next month, its 3% for senior Mgmt, and 3.5 for non senior.

Received 5% last year.

[jiltedjen]

4 hours ago, Grayphil said:

Just had my payrise starting next month, its 3% for senior Mgmt, and 3.5 for non senior.

Received 5% last year.

wonder if they have realised there has been a compounding effect on wage differences between lower and higher paid. 

The % acting on higher wages accelerating the differences.

and now that the bottom is finding actual issues with bills and cost of living, compounded with a still fairly healthy job market for lower skilled ‘bodies’ 

keeping higher pay slightly more restrained saves some money to help normalise lower wages slightly.

the last few years at my place the % have been applied across the board, but for the lower paid it’s barely kept them above the new minimum wage, the higher more senior people (like me) have done OK. But I suspect the people making the decisions (management) on their own pay rise have chosen to ignore the fact senior wages have probably risen too far in recent years.

from my experience we have been dead for more than 6 months now, recessions usually last 6-18 months, and have some signs of recovery for orders for 2025. If we had not had those initial enquiries then we would have been chopping imminently. The axe has stayed in the cupboard for now. 

if we had not had those green shoots the unnecessarily retained labour might have been cut in another round of redundancies. 

I have also seen a kind of ‘wage compression’ happening at my mid-senior level. There is a limit companies are willing to pay, and more and more of my peers (who were underpaid) are now reaching that common limit.

 

[Stewy]

30 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

wonder if they have realised there has been a compounding effect on wage differences between lower and higher paid. 

The % acting on higher wages accelerating the differences.

 

Erm, that's the complete opposite of what you just quoted. 

[Grayphil]

Just now, jiltedjen said:

wonder if they have realised there has been a compounding effect on wage differences between lower and higher paid. 

The % acting on higher wages accelerating the differences.

and now that the bottom is finding actual issues with bills and cost of living, compounded with a still fairly healthy job market for lower skilled ‘bodies’ 

keeping higher pay slightly more restrained saves some money to help normalise lower wages slightly.

the last few years at my place the % have been applied across the board, but for the lower paid it’s barely kept them above the new minimum wage, the higher more senior people (like me) have done OK. But I suspect the people making the decisions (management) on their own pay rise have chosen to ignore the fact senior wages have probably risen too far in recent years.

from my experience we have been dead for more than 6 months now, recessions usually last 6-18 months, and have some signs of recovery for orders for 2025. If we had not had those initial enquiries then we would have been chopping imminently. The axe has stayed in the cupboard for now. 

if we had not had those green shoots the unnecessarily retained labour might have been cut in another round of redundancies. 

I have also seen a kind of ‘wage compression’ happening at my mid-senior level. There is a limit companies are willing to pay, and more and more of my peers (who were underpaid) are now reaching that common limit.

 

I'm also in the senior bracket, so it was 3.5% 5% and then 3%, so honestly I think that because these payrises over the last few years takes a huge slice of my mortgage I'm really not in a position to complain.

But it has made me proportionally better off then my colleagues in lower ranks over the years, so I do think that the .5 is fair, however ot can't be done every year, cos those .5 will add up in a few years

 

 

[fellow]

UK wage growth eases to 5.8%

https://www.ft.com/content/8ef73964-2676-41f0-add6-d3b0d32a06cb

[Stewy]

Just now, fellow said:

UK wage growth eases to 5.8%

https://www.ft.com/content/8ef73964-2676-41f0-add6-d3b0d32a06cb

Poor sods, must have no bargaining power. 

[Grayphil]

On 31/01/2024 at 12:42, Grayphil said:

Just had my payrise starting next month, its 3% for senior Mgmt, and 3.5 for non senior.

Received 5% last year.

Just unexpectedly had a re-raise, Senior Mgmt 4.5% and non senior 5%.

I didn't expect that, and its quite welcome.

[Shep]

It'll be 3% for me in 2024/25 (plus an extra 3 days leave) - it's the same across the organisation (excluding those who were on minimum wage).  My increase will be going into my pension, so my take home pay will stay the same.

I got a 4% increase in 2023/24.