BoE decision this week - predictions?

[coypondboy]

I think it will depend on what the fed do but either no rise or only 0.25% as local elections on Thursday and like many others checking their bank account I saw a huge rise in my direct debit payment to the gas/electric company.

[Gurgle]

2 minutes ago, coypondboy said:

I think it will depend on what the fed do but either no rise or only 0.25% as local elections on Thursday and like many others checking their bank account I saw a huge rise in my direct debit payment to the gas/electric company.

But not increasing rates will make that worse,  not better.  Devaluing of the pound hits everyone.  Increasing of rates hits those most in debt.  Raising rates is the lesser of 2 poisons

[scottbeard]

47 minutes ago, henry the king said:

I would have thought he could stop the BoE doing announcements on that day, get them to delay it a day.

And be accused of delaying bad news until after the election...?   Labour would have a field day with that.

Better to let this coincidence of dates simply happen.

There is lots to criticise Boris for, but to do so for not meddling with announcements that aren't anything to do with him is an odd choice.

[henry the king]

9 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

And be accused of delaying bad news until after the election...?   Labour would have a field day with that.

Better to let this coincidence of dates simply happen.

There is lots to criticise Boris for, but to do so for not meddling with announcements that aren't anything to do with him is an odd choice.

Fair enough.

I am just pissed off at him for being so useless.

But you are right, you seem to be the voice of reason on here!

[henry the king]

55 minutes ago, Gurgle said:

But not increasing rates will make that worse,  not better.  Devaluing of the pound hits everyone.  Increasing of rates hits those most in debt.  Raising rates is the lesser of 2 poisons

Yeh, which is why the Fed is keeping the BoE honest. They would 100% not raise them without the £ being in trouble. They know if they don't raise them the pound is on a fast track to 1.20 and below.

[scottbeard]

5 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Fair enough.

I am just pissed off at him for being so useless.

But you are right, you seem to be the voice of reason on here!

Haha thanks!

I went off Boris in 2016 when he sided with the Leave campaign quite clearly to further his career rather than because he really believed in it.

Why I am now unhappy with the government is because they just don't seem to feel that honesty is necessary.  Boris having a drink in his garden isn't a big deal.  Boris LYING about what he has done whilst in office definitely is.  Similarly I don't mind if Rishi is a millionaire.  But I do mind if he taxes the poor whilst his wife ducks tax as a "non-dom" (despite very much being dommed in No.11).  But most of all, it's that when caught out by things like this they aren't actually SORRY.  They still seem to feel they are in the right.

When I have had to assess employees at work I have sympathy for people who make genuine mistakes, and I have sympathy for people who break rules but then you can see in their face they understand that what they did was wrong, and WHY, and that they have learned from it.  With Boris all I see is someone who just will say anything and everything to keep himself in power.  That is the sort of person that should not be given power. 

[winkie]

40 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Haha thanks!

I went off Boris in 2016 when he sided with the Leave campaign quite clearly to further his career rather than because he really believed in it.

Why I am now unhappy with the government is because they just don't seem to feel that honesty is necessary.  Boris having a drink in his garden isn't a big deal.  Boris LYING about what he has done whilst in office definitely is.  Similarly I don't mind if Rishi is a millionaire.  But I do mind if he taxes the poor whilst his wife ducks tax as a "non-dom" (despite very much being dommed in No.11).  But most of all, it's that when caught out by things like this they aren't actually SORRY.  They still seem to feel they are in the right.

When I have had to assess employees at work I have sympathy for people who make genuine mistakes, and I have sympathy for people who break rules but then you can see in their face they understand that what they did was wrong, and WHY, and that they have learned from it.  With Boris all I see is someone who just will say anything and everything to keep himself in power.  That is the sort of person that should not be given power. 

Too big for his boots.

 

 

Every dog, big or small has its day......there for a reason, a moment/blip in time.

Edited May 3, 2022 by winkie

[henry the king]

50 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Haha thanks!

I went off Boris in 2016 when he sided with the Leave campaign quite clearly to further his career rather than because he really believed in it.

Why I am now unhappy with the government is because they just don't seem to feel that honesty is necessary.  Boris having a drink in his garden isn't a big deal.  Boris LYING about what he has done whilst in office definitely is.  Similarly I don't mind if Rishi is a millionaire.  But I do mind if he taxes the poor whilst his wife ducks tax as a "non-dom" (despite very much being dommed in No.11).  But most of all, it's that when caught out by things like this they aren't actually SORRY.  They still seem to feel they are in the right.

When I have had to assess employees at work I have sympathy for people who make genuine mistakes, and I have sympathy for people who break rules but then you can see in their face they understand that what they did was wrong, and WHY, and that they have learned from it.  With Boris all I see is someone who just will say anything and everything to keep himself in power.  That is the sort of person that should not be given power. 

I agree with a lot of this

I am anti-globalisation so a supporter of Brexit. I have gone off him because of reasons totally unconnected to the partygate nonsense. I couldn't care less about that. The issue for me was the rules being so ridiculous that it was almost impossible to stick to. There was no justification for stopping people going into hospitals to see dying people. So what if the R rate went up from 0.7 to 0.72 as a result or whatever. Cruel and callous from the government. And I say that knowing labour would have been just as bad and just as cruel and callous with their rules.

Boris isn't even a tory imo, he just does what the latest outrage in the papers/on twitter suggests - hence all the U-turns. He is weak. Weakest leader I have ever seen. 

Then during covid, as he is weak and pathetic, he dishes out billions in furlough into late 2021 (way after the vaccine roll-out and when there was full employment). Utterly wasteful. To those who don't need it usually. 

He also has no political brain whatsoever. He chases poll ratings and headlines NOW whereas what the polls say NOW doesn't matter, 2024 matters. Cameron understood that. Thatcher too. But Boris has no idea. So instead of treating it like a 5 year game he has to be liked always because of his own issues probably. So he has now lost the Tories chance in 2024 as a result. Furlough money should have been less to leave more room to move now. People didn't need that much money. Hence why it all got saved and dunked into +20% housing. Imagine they had spent 1/2-3/4 as much on furlough. It would still been reasonable and more than enough. But they now would have more room in the budget to do things in the run up to the election.

In my view Johnson has to go. I would rather a labour leader who at least is capable of making tough decisions 10% of the time (Johnson manages it 0% of the time). Even though I am aware labour are in many ways even more cruel than Boris (their covid rules would have been even worse)

Even his policies are just headline grabbers. Like his right to buy idea. Just nonesense. Won't do anything. His Rwanda scheme. Good idea in theory (imo) but then you find out they will end up sending about 100 people in a year. All worthless and done for headlines. He is incompetent, weak and useless.  How are no fault evictions STILL ALLOWED for example? Boris is useless. He cannot govern.

Labour do him a favour if they focus on partygate and lies. They should just focus on his record of not getting anything done. 

Edited May 3, 2022 by henry the king

[Odysseus]

I think the FED will go for a 0.5% rate rise forcing the BOE to match with a 0.5%. Our interest rates will be dictated by the market and the Fed.

[dugsbody]

4 minutes ago, henry the king said:

I agree with a lot of this

I am anti-globalisation so a supporter of Brexit.

But what did you think of it when all the brexit campaigners told you it was about a more global Britain? More free trade. More globalisation. More immigration.

[henry the king]

3 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

But what did you think of it when all the brexit campaigners told you it was about a more global Britain? More free trade. More globalisation. More immigration.

I don't listen to campaigners. I just make up my mind myself. 

Brexit is just the first step to me. Next I want PR.

Edited May 3, 2022 by henry the king

[zugzwang]

36 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

But what did you think of it when all the brexit campaigners told you it was about a more global Britain? More free trade. More globalisation. More immigration.

Global Britain = China First.

 

[henry the king]

Australia raised rates by more than expected.

Sign of things to come perhaps?

[zugzwang]

5 minutes ago, henry the king said:

Australia raised rates by more than expected.

Sign of things to come perhaps?

Excellent! 🤞

[Gurgle]

3 hours ago, henry the king said:

I agree with a lot of this

I am anti-globalisation so a supporter of Brexit. I have gone off him because of reasons totally unconnected to the partygate nonsense. I couldn't care less about that. The issue for me was the rules being so ridiculous that it was almost impossible to stick to. There was no justification for stopping people going into hospitals to see dying people. So what if the R rate went up from 0.7 to 0.72 as a result or whatever. Cruel and callous from the government. And I say that knowing labour would have been just as bad and just as cruel and callous with their rules.

Boris isn't even a tory imo, he just does what the latest outrage in the papers/on twitter suggests - hence all the U-turns. He is weak. Weakest leader I have ever seen. 

Then during covid, as he is weak and pathetic, he dishes out billions in furlough into late 2021 (way after the vaccine roll-out and when there was full employment). Utterly wasteful. To those who don't need it usually. 

He also has no political brain whatsoever. He chases poll ratings and headlines NOW whereas what the polls say NOW doesn't matter, 2024 matters. Cameron understood that. Thatcher too. But Boris has no idea. So instead of treating it like a 5 year game he has to be liked always because of his own issues probably. So he has now lost the Tories chance in 2024 as a result. Furlough money should have been less to leave more room to move now. People didn't need that much money. Hence why it all got saved and dunked into +20% housing. Imagine they had spent 1/2-3/4 as much on furlough. It would still been reasonable and more than enough. But they now would have more room in the budget to do things in the run up to the election.

In my view Johnson has to go. I would rather a labour leader who at least is capable of making tough decisions 10% of the time (Johnson manages it 0% of the time). Even though I am aware labour are in many ways even more cruel than Boris (their covid rules would have been even worse)

Even his policies are just headline grabbers. Like his right to buy idea. Just nonesense. Won't do anything. His Rwanda scheme. Good idea in theory (imo) but then you find out they will end up sending about 100 people in a year. All worthless and done for headlines. He is incompetent, weak and useless.  How are no fault evictions STILL ALLOWED for example? Boris is useless. He cannot govern.

Labour do him a favour if they focus on partygate and lies. They should just focus on his record of not getting anything done. 

Good post.  There's just no substance to this government at all.

[Gurgle]

3 hours ago, Odysseus said:

I think the FED will go for a 0.5% rate rise forcing the BOE to match with a 0.5%. Our interest rates will be dictated by the market and the Fed.

Spoke to someone who works for a financial services company today.  The companies view was they're expecting 0.5% from BoE this week.  Total anecdotal of course

[henry the king]

23 minutes ago, Gurgle said:

Spoke to someone who works for a financial services company today.  The companies view was they're expecting 0.5% from BoE this week.  Total anecdotal of course

Basically impossible I think.

The issue will be if they do 0.25%, and if they do then the key will be what the vote was and what the ideas at the meeting were. And when they will do active reversal of QE. 

Maybe if the Fed did +1% or something it would force their hand.

[BaldED]

10 hours ago, cbathpc said:

I think people here are delusional if they think a 0.5% rate rise will happen. I'd be surprised if 0.25 happened.

Look at the wider economy, we've just had a tax increase, energy prices will have likely doubled by the end of this year vs last year, rate rises will crush the economy rather than get inflation under control. 

They'll stick, no matter what inflation is.. and it'll be high. 

You do realise that if the US raise their rates and £ is kept where it is the pound is weaker and imports become more expensive thus inflation goes up. Leaving them as they are won't happen on Thursday.

[dugsbody]

4 hours ago, henry the king said:

I don't listen to campaigners. I just make up my mind myself. 

Brexit is just the first step to me. Next I want PR.

So when the people who would be running the UK after brexit told you their plan for post brexit was more globalisation, you ignored them?

That seems a strange way to get what you want. If I wanted to legalise drugs, I wouldn't vote for a party who told me they had no intention of legalising drugs.

[dugsbody]

6 minutes ago, BaldED said:

You do realise that if the US raise their rates and £ is kept where it is the pound is weaker and imports become more expensive thus inflation goes up. Leaving them as they are won't happen on Thursday.

What if we import most of our stuff from someone other than the US?

[BaldED]

Just now, dugsbody said:

What if we import most of our stuff from someone other than the US?

The world economy runs on US $ doesn't matter where you buy it from.

[Social Justice League]

IR's will rocket this year and many filthy debtors will be destitute.

In the old days it would be the work house for those feckless b4stards.

[dugsbody]

1 minute ago, BaldED said:

The world economy runs on US $ doesn't matter where you buy it from.

I admit, I'm out of my depth. But it seems unlikely to me that a rising USD causes prices to rise everywhere.

[Gurgle]

18 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I admit, I'm out of my depth. But it seems unlikely to me that a rising USD causes prices to rise everywhere.

Nearly all international trade is done in USD except within the EU where it's EUR.  That my understanding anyway.  Foreign countries like China like to hold foreign currency reserves anyway so they're happy.  You will have seen in the news that Russia prices it's gas to EU countries in EUR, not Roubles.

[henry the king]

28 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

So when the people who would be running the UK after brexit told you their plan for post brexit was more globalisation, you ignored them?

That seems a strange way to get what you want. If I wanted to legalise drugs, I wouldn't vote for a party who told me they had no intention of legalising drugs.

Brexit isn't about 3 years. It is about decades