Food inflation suddenly goes out of control - the media has barely noticed.

[Gurgle]

51 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Still value, and WAY cheaper than drinking JD out somewhere? The big stores will still discount whisky, vodka etc, to good levels, you just need to be there at the right time.

Waitrose had 30% off my favourite wine this week (again).  Food price inflation seems to be specifically focused on certain food types as far as I can see.  

[crash-and-burn]

I love homegrown potatoes, you can't beat the flavour, but they take a lot of space and are cheap to buy, so things like courgettes are going up in price, tomatoes if you can get an early start indoors. I grow a lot of summer squashes (patty pans and straightnecks), which you don't typically find for sale, but taste really good. There's also a Pacific giant pumpkin variety that grows huge, tastes great, and doesn't spread much. Between the pumpkins (which do still require a fair amount of space), I plant sweetcorn, as they don't interfere with one another. If you want to do the whole native American 'three sisters', you can also throw in some climbing beans. I tend to grow those on a bamboo tripod though, and also plant out rows of bush beans, which make for great pickings.

This year I've got Jerusalem artichoke, Asturian cabbage tree (lots of tasty greens, and perennial if you pick off the flowers), various kales, summer squashes, winter squashes, carrots, giant bolvian achoca, tree spinach, Aztec brocolli, giant yellow purslane, Spanish red peppers, tomatoes, cucumbers, potatoes, sweetcorn, salads, cucamelons, melons,  tomatillos, many different herbs, edible flowers, strawberries, grapes, jostaberries, tayberry, raspberries, gooseberries, black currants and goji berries.

The one problem is you tend to have a glut of too much food in the summer, and not enough in the winter and spring, unless you know how to store well, fill up the freezer or learn how to preserve food.

[winkie]

Now is time to dig back into the freezer to rotate previous years crops or purchases ready to blanch and freeze anything that have grown where there is a glut or can buy in bulk where can see value today to save for later......always date and label, take food out of plastic containers and put into meal sized zip freezer bags, saves space and only defrost to use what is required at time number of units required at time.......tip: a modern pressure cooker is invaluable, both cooks food quickly and saves on energy, soups are so easy and quick to make using one, can also make base curry sauce that can be frozen in old clean margarine tubs, can knock up a quick curry at a later date, best curries have layers of flavours, stocks the same.....boil the chicken bones with onion celery and carrot bay leaf and freeze in tubs for use later.......can also freeze own mirepoix, a great start to any recipe, saves time and money, tastes good......what more is there to like.

[skinnylattej]

1 hour ago, crash-and-burn said:

I love homegrown potatoes, you can't beat the flavour, but they take a lot of space and are cheap to buy, so things like courgettes are going up in price, tomatoes if you can get an early start indoors. I grow a lot of summer squashes (patty pans and straightnecks), which you don't typically find for sale, but taste really good. There's also a Pacific giant pumpkin variety that grows huge, tastes great, and doesn't spread much. Between the pumpkins (which do still require a fair amount of space), I plant sweetcorn, as they don't interfere with one another. If you want to do the whole native American 'three sisters', you can also throw in some climbing beans. I tend to grow those on a bamboo tripod though, and also plant out rows of bush beans, which make for great pickings.

This year I've got Jerusalem artichoke, Asturian cabbage tree (lots of tasty greens, and perennial if you pick off the flowers), various kales, summer squashes, winter squashes, carrots, giant bolvian achoca, tree spinach, Aztec brocolli, giant yellow purslane, Spanish red peppers, tomatoes, cucumbers, potatoes, sweetcorn, salads, cucamelons, melons,  tomatillos, many different herbs, edible flowers, strawberries, grapes, jostaberries, tayberry, raspberries, gooseberries, black currants and goji berries.

The one problem is you tend to have a glut of too much food in the summer, and not enough in the winter and spring, unless you know how to store well, fill up the freezer or learn how to preserve food.

Wow, that's impressive, you must have a small farm!

You have given me some ideas for planting next year.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

On 03/05/2022 at 19:13, shlomo said:

Do you think further down the line prices will shoot up

Prices have already shot up which has speeded up the destocking... take the prices now and a few months of fodder to fatten and prices will shoot up again. 

[shlomo]

23 minutes ago, Sausages said:

Prices have already shot up which has speeded up the destocking... take the prices now and a few months of fodder to fatten and prices will shoot up again. 

People still have savings and people can more for a certain period of time and they can sell things, it takes some time till excess savings finish 

[crash-and-burn]

4 hours ago, skinnylattej said:

Wow, that's impressive, you must have a small farm!

You have given me some ideas for planting next year.

I've got just over an acre and a half, but nearly half of that is woodland, and another large section is a small orchard (apples, plums, figs, pears, quince and cherries), so the actual growing space for vegetables and squashes is quite condensed. If you have a much smaller garden, there's a lot you can grow vertically, especially if you employ square foot gardening principals.

[Pmax2020]

17 hours ago, Gurgle said:

Waitrose had 30% off my favourite wine this week (again).  Food price inflation seems to be specifically focused on certain food types as far as I can see.  

Like most people, my weekly grocery shop is blend of the cheap staples, some prepared/ready meals, as well as some more expensive branded items. Clearly retailers have enough headroom that lots of prices have stayed the same, while others are up 10p in the pound, if not more. 

The main thing I’ve noticed is the pace in which pack sizes are changing to hide the rising cost. You’ll probably all know the ‘3 for £1’ packs of sweets you get. The strawberry laces, cola bottles, etc. The kids ask for them from time to time but bloody hell - the pack of cola bottles in Aldi literally had about 9 of them in it!!!

I think someone mentioned Pringles being £1 not too long ago. I think that was a good 5 or 6 years ago but again it’s the pack sizes which have shrunk and shrunk. I think a tube used to be 210g but is now 165g.

Edited May 8, 2022 by Pmax2020

[Gurgle]

3 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

Like most people, my weekly grocery shop is blend of the cheap staples, some prepared/ready meals, as well as some more expensive branded items. Clearly retailers have enough headroom that lots of prices have stayed the same, while others are up 10p in the pound, if not more. 

The main thing I’ve noticed is the pace in which pack sizes are changing to hide the rising cost. You’ll probably all know the ‘3 for £1’ packs of sweets you get. The strawberry laces, cola bottles, etc. The kids ask for them from time to time but bloody hell - the pack of cola bottles in Aldi literally had about 9 of them in it!!!

I think someone mentioned Pringles being £1 not too long ago. I think that was a good 5 or 6 years ago but again it’s the pack sizes which have shrunk and shrunk. I think a tube used to be 210g but is now 165g.

A good question would be whether the way that CPI / RPI is calculated takes that into consideration (I/e the shrinkflation).  Certainly the real numbers are higher that what has been reported over the last 10 years and maybe this is part of the reason why?

[FallingAwake]

7 minutes ago, Gurgle said:

A good question would be whether the way that CPI / RPI is calculated takes that into consideration (I/e the shrinkflation).  Certainly the real numbers are higher that what has been reported over the last 10 years and maybe this is part of the reason why?

I'll give you three guesses.

[Nick Cash]

Last week Sainsburys had loads of price reductions. Looks like they’d decided to attack Aldi and Lidl etc even more. 

[dances with sheeple]

On 07/05/2022 at 23:49, Gurgle said:

Waitrose had 30% off my favourite wine this week (again).  Food price inflation seems to be specifically focused on certain food types as far as I can see.  

Yes, would it be fair to say vegan/vegetarian diets will be hit less than meat/animal based, or not?

[dances with sheeple]

21 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

Like most people, my weekly grocery shop is blend of the cheap staples, some prepared/ready meals, as well as some more expensive branded items. Clearly retailers have enough headroom that lots of prices have stayed the same, while others are up 10p in the pound, if not more. 

The main thing I’ve noticed is the pace in which pack sizes are changing to hide the rising cost. You’ll probably all know the ‘3 for £1’ packs of sweets you get. The strawberry laces, cola bottles, etc. The kids ask for them from time to time but bloody hell - the pack of cola bottles in Aldi literally had about 9 of them in it!!!

I think someone mentioned Pringles being £1 not too long ago. I think that was a good 5 or 6 years ago but again it’s the pack sizes which have shrunk and shrunk. I think a tube used to be 210g but is now 165g.

Yes, but you can always leave that kind of sh*it on the shelf, not really going to affect your wellbeing one way or the other really? I think is was discussed on here that in earlier stages of the cheap credit craze you would see people with trolleys in the supermarket rammed to the brim with alcohol, biscuits, snacks, chocolate, fizzy drinks etc. almost as if to say - Look at me, I eat like a farmyard animal - I`m special - I`m wealthy - I have access to loads of debt credits.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

On 08/05/2022 at 12:43, shlomo said:

People still have savings and people can more for a certain period of time and they can sell things, it takes some time till excess savings finish 

farmers tend to have loans. Very vulnerable. Financed to the sky!

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

25 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Yes, would it be fair to say vegan/vegetarian diets will be hit less than meat/animal based, or not?

No - swings and roundabouts. My da can fatten stock without any spray and fertilizer, etc. - most veg is sprayed and covered in artificial fertilizer. Most veggie diets are also very reliant on elongated supply chains (and on soy!). 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Sausages

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

21 hours ago, Nick Cash said:

Last week Sainsburys had loads of price reductions. Looks like they’d decided to attack Aldi and Lidl etc even more. 

Supermarkets have good profits and long price controlled contracts. The interesting bit will start Sept onwards this year for that very reason. That is when the crisis kicks in. 

[dances with sheeple]

6 minutes ago, Sausages said:

No - swings and roundabouts. My da can fatten stock without any spray and fertilizer, etc. - most veg is sprayed and covered in artificial fertilizer. Most veggie diets are also very reliant on elongated supply chains (and on soy!). 

Ok, so a vegan with a Jumbo mortgage loan taken out during the stamp duty holiday won`t escape?

[scottbeard]

22 hours ago, Gurgle said:

A good question would be whether the way that CPI / RPI is calculated takes that into consideration (I/e the shrinkflation).  Certainly the real numbers are higher that what has been reported over the last 10 years and maybe this is part of the reason why?

For some items it does take that into account because for example the item in the basket is a 100 g something about that so if they change that to become 90 g CPI can pick that up. However if the CPI definition is something more vague like a medium sized packet then it won’t pick that up.

 

For some items it does take that into account because for example the item in the basket is a 100 g something about that so if they change that to become 90 g CP I can pick that up. However if the CPI definition is something more vague like a medium sized packet then it won’t pick that up.

 

The other thing CPI definitely doesn’t pick up is if the quality reduces so for example you’re still getting 100 g but now it’s just a worse quality product. Finally CPI allows for substitution for example if the chicken becomes expensive it assumes that you buy less chicken and more of something else for example beef.

 

Whilst that probably is reflective of what people do, it also means that some of the inflation effect is missed because actually in reality the prices of chicken are going up and that’s not offset by something else going down, even if people switch to beef

[Pmax2020]

1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

Yes, but you can always leave that kind of sh*it on the shelf, not really going to affect your wellbeing one way or the other really? I think is was discussed on here that in earlier stages of the cheap credit craze you would see people with trolleys in the supermarket rammed to the brim with alcohol, biscuits, snacks, chocolate, fizzy drinks etc. almost as if to say - Look at me, I eat like a farmyard animal - I`m special - I`m wealthy - I have access to loads of debt credits.

I totally agree - and not meaning to rub it in but I’ve said a few times that I’m fortunate enough that my wife and I both earn reasonable wages, though nonetheless we are tightening our belts because it feels like the right thing to do.

That said, I don’t decry anyone treating themselves to some more expensive food stuffs. I like making a huge pot of ‘cheap’ vegetable soup but I wouldn’t want to live on it permanently. Same with takeaway - you can’t blame people for wanting something tasty delivered every now and again. I think it’s dangerous to assume a lot of people living in poverty could elevate out of it through shopping a bit more frugally. Sadly I suspect millions of people don’t have the income for that. 

[Gurgle]

2 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Yes, would it be fair to say vegan/vegetarian diets will be hit less than meat/animal based, or not?

Well wheat prices have been hit quite hard as Ukraine and Russia are essentially the breadbasket of Europe.  I didn't know this until the war broke out.  However, the UK is largely self-sufficient in terms of wheat I'm told, although there may be international competition for it.  Sunflower oil is similar.  But I'd imagine that in general veggie prices will be less hard hit although I suspect farmers will be paying more for crop pickers this year.

[Gurgle]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

For some items it does take that into account because for example the item in the basket is a 100 g something about that so if they change that to become 90 g CPI can pick that up. However if the CPI definition is something more vague like a medium sized packet then it won’t pick that up.

 

For some items it does take that into account because for example the item in the basket is a 100 g something about that so if they change that to become 90 g CP I can pick that up. However if the CPI definition is something more vague like a medium sized packet then it won’t pick that up.

 

The other thing CPI definitely doesn’t pick up is if the quality reduces so for example you’re still getting 100 g but now it’s just a worse quality product. Finally CPI allows for substitution for example if the chicken becomes expensive it assumes that you buy less chicken and more of something else for example beef.

 

Whilst that probably is reflective of what people do, it also means that some of the inflation effect is missed because actually in reality the prices of chicken are going up and that’s not offset by something else going down, even if people switch to beef

Thanks !

[PeanutButter]

BUT THEY SAID IT WAS TRANSIENT!!!!!!

 

[winkie]

9 minutes ago, Gurgle said:

Well wheat prices have been hit quite hard as Ukraine and Russia are essentially the breadbasket of Europe.  I didn't know this until the war broke out.  However, the UK is largely self-sufficient in terms of wheat I'm told, although there may be international competition for it.  Sunflower oil is similar.  But I'd imagine that in general veggie prices will be less hard hit although I suspect farmers will be paying more for crop pickers this year.

We can be self sufficient in wheat for flour but not STRONG bread flour......much of which is imported.

Fertiliser notwithstanding.

Edited May 9, 2022 by winkie

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

17 hours ago, Gurgle said:

Well wheat prices have been hit quite hard as Ukraine and Russia are essentially the breadbasket of Europe.  I didn't know this until the war broke out.  However, the UK is largely self-sufficient in terms of wheat I'm told, although there may be international competition for it.  Sunflower oil is similar.  But I'd imagine that in general veggie prices will be less hard hit although I suspect farmers will be paying more for crop pickers this year.

Harder hit if anything - most veg is imported on long supply chains. Salad? Spain and beyond, for example. Most meat and dairy is home produced. 

[Gurgle]

3 minutes ago, Sausages said:

Harder hit if anything - most veg is imported on long supply chains. Salad? Spain and beyond, for example. Most meat and dairy is home produced. 

We’d better start farming our unused fields then.  There’s plenty of them