Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[Grayphil]

3 hours ago, bumble bee said:

I think Lukashenko is opening a back door for Ukraine and its sponsors to escape from the quagmire they have created ...

Belarus’ Lukashenko says conditions are ripe to start Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday that there was a stalemate on the Ukrainian frontline and conditions were ripe to start peace talks.

Lukashenko said preliminary texts discussed between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Turkey in the early weeks of the war could serve as a starting point for negotiations.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2024/04/25/belarus-lukashenko-says-conditions-are-ripe-to-start-russia-ukraine-peace-talks

Ah Minsk 3

Why doesn't that surprise me, suggesting trying the same thing and expecting different results.

Sounds like Russia is starting to beg if Lukashenko is suggesting this 

I'm curious, Ukriane and Russia do negotiate something, are the "Ukrainian nazis" real anymore?

How can Russia negotiate if Ukriane is full of Nazis? And Biolab weapon laboratories etc

[bumble bee]

7 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

Ah Minsk 3

Why doesn't that surprise me, suggesting trying the same thing and expecting different results.

Sounds like Russia is starting to beg if Lukashenko is suggesting this 

I'm curious, Ukriane and Russia do negotiate something, are the "Ukrainian nazis" real anymore?

How can Russia negotiate if Ukriane is full of Nazis? And Biolab weapon laboratories etc

You have missed some very important details, it's not Minsk 3 but Istanbul  1.

Can you see now, where you did the key mistake?

 

[bumble bee]

 

Lithuania may assist Ukraine in returning military-aged men

Lithuania had said it could follow Poland's lead and take steps to encourage Ukrainian men of military age in the country to return home.

Lithuania's Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas said in the parliament he was closely watching his Polish counterparts, who announced a similar stance on April 24, though he said Vilnius has not yet decided on specific measures.

"Of course, no one will collect them and take them to Ukraine - this will not happen,"  Kasciunas said, adding: "But (it is possible to limit these persons) in terms of social benefits, work permits, documents – these are options that I hear from the Polish side as well.

"So, let's wait and see what option they will offer, maybe it will also be suitable for Lithuania."

https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-assist-ukraine-in-returning-military-aged-men/

[Staffsknot]

50 minutes ago, bumble bee said:

 

Lithuania may assist Ukraine in returning military-aged men

Lithuania had said it could follow Poland's lead and take steps to encourage Ukrainian men of military age in the country to return home.

Lithuania's Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas said in the parliament he was closely watching his Polish counterparts, who announced a similar stance on April 24, though he said Vilnius has not yet decided on specific measures.

"Of course, no one will collect them and take them to Ukraine - this will not happen,"  Kasciunas said, adding: "But (it is possible to limit these persons) in terms of social benefits, work permits, documents – these are options that I hear from the Polish side as well.

"So, let's wait and see what option they will offer, maybe it will also be suitable for Lithuania."

https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-assist-ukraine-in-returning-military-aged-men/

You will have a heart attack when you see what Russia is having to offer as signing on payments to get soldiers then...

[Grayphil]

3 hours ago, bumble bee said:

You have missed some very important details, it's not Minsk 3 but Istanbul  1.

Can you see now, where you did the key mistake?

 

Don't really think it was a mistake, sounds like Lukashenko starting to try to get the ball rolling for a battered Putin

[pig]

1 hour ago, Grayphil said:

Don't really think it was a mistake, sounds like Lukashenko starting to try to get the ball rolling for a battered Putin

Putin wants this over with - its screwing up Russia - but he wants his maximalist demands.

I think the idea here is to weaken the political will of Ukraines allies (eg Trumpian withholding of aid to achieve "peace") thereby weaken Ukraines military position and hence dictate the peace terms.

But I can't help but suspect some kind of military intelligence memo has been circulating around world capitals recently....

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

We all want this conflict over cause Ukrainians vs. Russian is like Wales vs. England, when fighting the same people and phuckin stupid!

[Grayphil]

3 hours ago, pig said:

Putin wants this over with - its screwing up Russia - but he wants his maximalist demands.

I think the idea here is to weaken the political will of Ukraines allies (eg Trumpian withholding of aid to achieve "peace") thereby weaken Ukraines military position and hence dictate the peace terms.

But I can't help but suspect some kind of military intelligence memo has been circulating around world capitals recently....

Pretty much agree with this

[Staffsknot]

2 hours ago, pig said:

Putin wants this over with - its screwing up Russia - but he wants his maximalist demands.

I think the idea here is to weaken the political will of Ukraines allies (eg Trumpian withholding of aid to achieve "peace") thereby weaken Ukraines military position and hence dictate the peace terms.

But I can't help but suspect some kind of military intelligence memo has been circulating around world capitals recently....

He wants a halt so that he can rebuild and start again. Right now its try and grab everything can before the aid reaches Ukraine.

Interestingly the moment Russia deployed long range ballistic missiles inc those from N Korea it allowed Biden to release ATACMs to Ukraine.

Russia was told this was the condition of not releasing longer range M57 ATACMs and they broke it thinking Biden would blink. He supplied a few as part of the March package and they arrived start of April.

More are going as part of the 1bn package announced immediately last night.

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

We all want this conflict over cause Ukrainians vs. Russian is like Wales vs. England, when fighting the same people and phuckin stupid!

It is, then you will conceed it's stupid for Russia to have started the whole thing in the first place.

I shouldn't say Russia, this is all on Putin, he is the one who has done this awful things, both to his neighbour and also to his own country.

He could have minded his own business for the last 15 years, Russia would have grown in respect worldwide, Ukraine and Europe would have all done better.

Russia would be without sanctions, and both countries would have intact militaries, and each country would have 500,000 more men living within it.

There is simply no explainable logic, that makes what Putin has done to Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the world acceptable or tolerable.

Around 2012, i think Russia looked impressive and credible on the world stage in my opinion.

Putin screwed his people big time, and no kremlin lies can cover that obvious fact up

[Flat Bear]

1 hour ago, Staffsknot said:

He wants a halt so that he can rebuild and start again. Right now its try and grab everything can before the aid reaches Ukraine.

This is the way I see it. There is no peace option with Putin's Russia and I mean that very sadly.

59 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

It is, then you will conceed it's stupid for Russia to have started the whole thing in the first place.

I shouldn't say Russia, this is all on Putin, he is the one who has done this awful things, both to his neighbour and also to his own country.

He could have minded his own business for the last 15 years, Russia would have grown in respect worldwide, Ukraine and Europe would have all done better.

Russia would be without sanctions, and both countries would have intact militaries, and each country would have 500,000 more men living within it.

There is simply no explainable logic, that makes what Putin has done to Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the world acceptable or tolerable.

Around 2012, i think Russia looked impressive and credible on the world stage in my opinion.

Putin screwed his people big time, and no kremlin lies can cover that obvious fact up

Yes. What a very terrible decision it was. Total miscalculation of his own might and the response.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

Only half the story, not the Disney fairy-tale of denial. NATO expansion has been stupid.

Oh, your the guy that doesn't know what a NeoCon is, yet claims to know all about the Ukraine conflict 🙄.

[Flat Bear]

On 24/04/2024 at 19:51, DiggerUK said:

The talking heads reckon that Kyiev will be receiving just enough aid from the USA, to enable them to carry on for a year or more. My opinion is that recruitment will be their biggest problem.

This lost cause has caused enough death, time to negotiate is now..._

I disagree with your conclusion (there is no point in negotiating) as you are already aware but you are right in that this latest aid package will give the Ukrainians enough to keep it all going on the front line for around a year or slightly less before the begging bowl comes out again.

I agree that recruitment will be their biggest problem. I know of three Ukrainian younger men in our town (SE England) who have used very poor excuses not to fight. Apparently the number capable and able is in the millions throughout western Europe. Where Russia forces men to the front line it is more of an option for Ukrainian men. Can I really say I blame these men? Would I want to fight in the knowledge I would probably lose my life to a superior force?

I think it is legitimate that Ukraine uses everything it can to get these young men to the front line to defend their country but a man that really does not want to be there and fight is not worth much at all. Please note it is always the men that are called to arms the feminists are always very quiet when it comes to recruitment. With exceptions to some very brave Ukrainian women I know.

This does not mean Putin can ever be in a position to take the whole of Ukraine but it will drag it all on for longer with Russia maybe taking a few percent more of Ukraine before eventually running out of everything and imploding in on itself. It has all got very ugly and painful.

[pig]

1 hour ago, Staffsknot said:

He wants a halt so that he can rebuild and start again. Right now its try and grab everything can before the aid reaches Ukraine.

Interestingly the moment Russia deployed long range ballistic missiles inc those from N Korea it allowed Biden to release ATACMs to Ukraine.

Russia was told this was the condition of not releasing longer range M57 ATACMs and they broke it thinking Biden would blink. He supplied a few as part of the March package and they arrived start of April.

More are going as part of the 1bn package announced immediately last night.

Yes I heard/read that today - done in secret in March.

The entirety of Crimea is now in range and they have already been used. A couple of attacks thought to be drones at the time were most likely ATACMS

[Flat Bear]

On 07/01/2023 at 15:16, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

- Neocon hegemonic wet dreams.
        - Destabilise the Russian economy, cease assets and reserves.
               - Regime change toward more western friendly.
        - Use conflict as a foot hold into a future US conflict with China.

        - Undermine Europe politically and weaken economically.
        - De-industrialise EU/Germany.
        - Re establish internal EU influence post UK Brexit, (Poland?).

The above is from a link you put from back in January 2023

I admit to not knowing what a Neocon was. I thought they were the bad guys but after reading online definitions and your own OTT version of what a Neocon wants they are the out and out good guys.

What I don't understand or agree with is that in your version you think Neocons are actively seeking conflict with countries and destabilising their economies by covert actions? This is wrong on so many levels and if a Neocon believed in the ballet box, which is the fundamental, they could not agree with such actions.

It does look like us Neocons are winning when it comes to Russia all round.

Only thing I would like to see the philosophy adopt a more live and let live approach.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

You are kidding right.
You might recognise some when they visited Ukraine in the past 20 years.
Here's a small sample of pure evil.

How Neocons Destabilized Europe (9 years ago!)

https://www.transcend.org/tms/2015/09/how-neocons-destabilized-europe/

 

 

Edited April 25 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
add detail

[satsuma]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Yes I heard/read that today - done in secret in March.

The entirety of Crimea is now in range and they have already been used. A couple of attacks thought to be drones at the time were most likely ATACMS

To be honest US have done very little, 1% of their military spending now grudgingly given after delay and bending the knee to Russia too long.

[Grayphil]

10 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Only half the story, not the Disney fairy-tale of denial. NATO expansion has been stupid.

Oh, your the guy that doesn't know what a NeoCon is, yet claims to know all about the Ukraine conflict 🙄.

Nato hadnt moved towards Russia in 18 years before Putin had his full scale invasion.

Not a reason to invade.

Ukraine had a non NATO alignment part with Russia, to appease their NATO wibble, from 2010 until 2014, they also had a pro Russian Government, this is until Russia invaded proving the need for people to need to be in NATO.

Finland and Sweden recently saw the pure evil of Russia and realised they couldn't be trusted, so they also asked to be part of NATO, in order to preserve themselves as countries.

That's the same with pretty much every country on Russias border, it's not NATO being some supranational organisation that swallowed up nations whole, it's smaller countries banding together for safety, all of the counties in NATO have been threatened in some form by Russia, don't say this isn't the case, simply look on YouTube at Julia Davis Russian disinformation channel for nightly evidence on Russian state media for evidence of this.

As for your refusal to admit that Putin made a terrible mistake in invading Ukriane, and by poorly trying to deflect because I don't believe people in the west who haven't has their brains turned to mush by Russian Disinformation use the word Neocon, well it's just proving the point. You are clearly either a victim of Russian disinfo, or an agent to spread it, I'm not sure which, but you are pretty low as a human either way.

Hope you find some joy searching for your global multipolarity hegemony in a world where the zionost neocon satanic cabal doesn't rule over the world with its 33rd degree freemasonry, the WEF, Bill gates, George soros, and something about 5G, vaccines, chemtrails and flat earth.

[Grayphil]

9 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

You are kidding right.
You might recognise some when they visited Ukraine in the past 20 years.
Here's a small sample of pure evil.

How Neocons Destabilized Europe (9 years ago!)

https://www.transcend.org/tms/2015/09/how-neocons-destabilized-europe/

 

 

Ahhahahahaa

I had written one post a minute a go, and hadn't read this, I was spot on in my post.

You need to lay off Qanon bro, it's really not good for you 

[bumble bee]

7 hours ago, satsuma said:

To be honest US have done very little, 1% of their military spending now grudgingly given after delay and bending the knee to Russia too long.

Yes, and US aid will last until end of the year maybe bit longer. With Trump most probably win the election the next aid package is very uncertain.

Plus the aid from EU, UK and others, it come close to 150 billion dollars for this year and next year Ukraine will need it again and again. This to continue is simply unrealistic expectations.

With future aid uncertain, Ukraine now struggling to get number of troops they needed, what victory Ukraine could realistically achieve against Russia a country that has put its industries on a war footing and is able to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men?

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

33 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

...You need to lay off Qanon bro, it's really not good for you 

You've already provided us with your lack of credentials and lack of balanced or depth on this subject.
Framing, pigeonholing and projecting what you want to say I believe and why, doesn't change or diminish the uncomfortable truths and lies, other than in your mind maybe.

But for what its worth: Wrong, I don't know any details about Qanon and I wouldn't trust at face value what the media presents to me as to what Qanon is actually about. Luckily, Qanon aren't involved in this conflict. Regardless, this is just your attempt at distraction or deflection whilst attempting to deny historic and current realities. Hey, it is a complex and layered situation, which is not black n white and persistently clouded by an unfaithful media from all sides, successfully demonstrated by the extreme polarisation of opinion in this thread.

[70PC]

1 hour ago, bumble bee said:

Yes, and US aid will last until end of the year maybe bit longer. With Trump most probably win the election the next aid package is very uncertain.

Plus the aid from EU, UK and others, it come close to 150 billion dollars for this year and next year Ukraine will need it again and again. This to continue is simply unrealistic expectations.

With future aid uncertain, Ukraine now struggling to get number of troops they needed, what victory Ukraine could realistically achieve against Russia a country that has put its industries on a war footing and is able to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men?

The case has been made that Trump's position on Ukraine is linked to personal history. Ukraine was not helpful in Trump's efforts to discredit Biden. 

Whether Trump will terminate support for Ukraine if he wins the election is far from clear. The threat Russia poses is clear to many, even in Trump's own camp. He has recently stepped back from outright opposition to arms support. 

[bumble bee]

12 minutes ago, 70PC said:

The case has been made that Trump's position on Ukraine is linked to personal history. Ukraine was not helpful in Trump's efforts to discredit Biden. 

Whether Trump will terminate support for Ukraine if he wins the election is far from clear. The threat Russia poses is clear to many, even in Trump's own camp. He has recently stepped back from outright opposition to arms support. 

Yes, Trump asked Zelensky to see what he could find out about Joe Biden and his family and at the time Zelensky said no.

I think, to make aid package to go through will be used as topic during presidential campaign. The attention will be pointed out towards how unwise the US taxpayers dollars are spent. Instead of protecting US Mexico borders, money are sent to Ukraine and that is not in US taxpayers interest.

[yelims]

31 minutes ago, 70PC said:

The case has been made that Trump's position on Ukraine is linked to personal history. Ukraine was not helpful in Trump's efforts to discredit Biden. 

Whether Trump will terminate support for Ukraine if he wins the election is far from clear. The threat Russia poses is clear to many, even in Trump's own camp. He has recently stepped back from outright opposition to arms support. 

Trump will do whatever gets him into power and out of prison, period.

No amount of propaganda by Russians which only managed to lodge itself in the very far left and far right extremes can change the fact that Americans like most Europeans see this war exactly for what it is, the last colonial war of Europes last empire run by a neo nazi who is wholesale copying tactics of the original scumbags with terrorism thrown on top.

This regime and ideology and any Russians supporting it need to be eliminated like the cockroaches that they are.

 

 

Edited April 26 by yelims

[yelims]

17 minutes ago, bumble bee said:

Yes, Trump asked Zelensky to see what he could find out about Joe Biden and his family and at the time Zelensky said no.

I think, to make aid package to go through will be used as topic during presidential campaign. The attention will be pointed out towards how unwise the US taxpayers dollars are spent. Instead of protecting US Mexico borders, money are sent to Ukraine and that is not in US taxpayers interest.

Unwise? Every Russian nazi eliminated makes the world a better and safer place