Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[Staffsknot]

French TV news is saying US has agreed to ATACMS system for Ukraine.

That puts all current Russian logistics in range and when Winter comes the Russian logistic hubs will be on hit lists right as logistic buildup is needed

[pig]

2 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

French TV news is saying US has agreed to ATACMS system for Ukraine.

That puts all current Russian logistics in range and when Winter comes the Russian logistic hubs will be on hit lists right as logistic buildup is needed

That is potentially big news. Complicated news as well - at least from my armchair generals perspective: for one thing I'm wondering about timing as a number of things going on - was this always going go happen in autumn as preparation for winter ? is this linked to their recent breakthrough the final line of defence ?

On that last wouldn't it have been better to have them earlier, potentially saving Ukrainian lives in the effort to break through (bearing in mind breaking through the lines is also about bringing other areas into range) ?

[Staffsknot]

1 hour ago, pig said:

That is potentially big news. Complicated news as well - at least from my armchair generals perspective: for one thing I'm wondering about timing as a number of things going on - was this always going go happen in autumn as preparation for winter ? is this linked to their recent breakthrough the final line of defence ?

On that last wouldn't it have been better to have them earlier, potentially saving Ukrainian lives in the effort to break through (bearing in mind breaking through the lines is also about bringing other areas into range) ?

Tbh its like me trying to get 4 hungover people up for breakfast or lunch. If I go slowly and tactfully I get better results than dragging them from their rooms and demanding they drink pints of water until they are capable of making it to watch Scotland vs Tonga in a bar.

While the latter is the fastest the former is more effective diplomatically.

Ukr has proven its not going to fold and has will to fight on + ability to strike with prev kit.

Also HIMARS & MLRS crews now experienced and in sufficient numbers as rollouts continued even as headlines moved

[Fishfinger]

On 22/09/2023 at 11:07, 70PC said:

Hersh is definitely a step up from the usual culprits sourced by team Putin. I get what he is saying but strongly disagree some of the assertions he draws. I can see why the following comment appears on his Wikipedia profile. 

"Hersh uses the method of medieval scholastics: first choose your belief, then seek proofs."

And of course absolutely no one on this thread does exactly the same either?😁😁

[Fishfinger]

On 23/09/2023 at 14:56, Peter Hun said:

Russian tactic of flinging the head quarters of the Black Sea fleet and the entire general staff of the Naval and Army against two Storm Shadows shows ithe impressive Russian success.

To paraphrase a certain post on this thread -

You do not provide proof, evidence quotes or sources.

You may as well be describing life in heaven, because there is nothing whatsoever to backup your claims, other than faith in the Holy Tzar (or should that be Zelensky in your case?)😁

[Fishfinger]

11 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

French TV news is saying US has agreed to ATACMS system for Ukraine.

That puts all current Russian logistics in range and when Winter comes the Russian logistic hubs will be on hit lists right as logistic buildup is needed

According to the BBC & Guardian Biden has approved a small number of ATACMS but no time frame given.

So who knows when these will turn up (if at all)? If only a small number I don't think this will be war winner. I suspect the Russians will keep a beady eye on their arrival. Heavens forbid the Russians may lob the odd cruise/hypersonic missile their way...

 

[Peter Hun]

17 minutes ago, Fishfinger said:

To paraphrase a certain post on this thread -

You do not provide proof, evidence quotes or sources.

You may as well be describing life in heaven, because there is nothing whatsoever to backup your claims, other than faith in the Holy Tzar (or should that be Zelensky in your case?)😁

 

Here you go peabrain, videos of stormshadow missiles hitting the headquarters of the Black Sea fleet in broad daylight.

You can the see the missiles flying and exploding, sufficient detail to see that it is a storm shadow.

Russia media also reported it.

[Peter Hun]

13 minutes ago, Fishfinger said:

who knows when these will turn up (if at all)? If only a small number I don't think this will be war winner. I suspect the Russians will keep a beady eye on their arrival. Heavens forbid the Russians may lob the odd cruise/hypersonic missile their way...

Nobody knows, so why bother mentioning it?  It might be Stormshadow, Neptune or ATACMS. You can find out after the events.

 

[Peter Hun]

10 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

 

Here you go peabrain, videos of stormshadow missiles hitting the headquarters of the Black Sea fleet in broad daylight.

You can the see the missiles flying and exploding, sufficient detail to see that it is a storm shadow.

Russia media also reported it.

Um, sorry YouTube is banned in Nazi Russia, isn't it? 

For clarity fir you and the other Nazi Russian bastards who post here, there is many videos showing the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea fleet being hit by 3 Stormshadows. Bunker busting high angle and altitude of attack. Also satellite photos of the smoking black holes where they hit. There were bunkers underneath the headquarters. 

Many casualties from reports of the number of ambulances.

[Staffsknot]

Just another point on ATACMS delay

If you gae Ukr everything on day one you would have had mixed results and kit sat unused as people are trained.

Its always nice to paper have it but the truth is you can't yank resources away to train en masse in a large war.

[pig]

32 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Just another point on ATACMS delay

If you gae Ukr everything on day one you would have had mixed results and kit sat unused as people are trained.

Its always nice to paper have it but the truth is you can't yank resources away to train en masse in a large war.

I guess there is a logic to that. Also its interesting that step by step a formidable European defence is being built and by the end of this other European countries will be learning off the Ukrainians - if they aren't already.

[steaky]

Oops...naughty naughty Trudeau and Zelenskyy.

I'm guessing the Canadian Jewish contingent are unhappy.  Unless of course it's actually OK to be a literal WWII Nazi these days?

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-09-25/canadian-parliament-apologises-after-accidentally-honouring-wwii-nazi

[Sackboii]

14 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

 

Here you go peabrain, videos of stormshadow missiles hitting the headquarters of the Black Sea fleet in broad daylight.

You can the see the missiles flying and exploding, sufficient detail to see that it is a storm shadow.

Russia media also reported it.

Gee I could watch the first 5 seconds of that over and over again for hours. 

[Staffsknot]

3 hours ago, pig said:

I guess there is a logic to that. Also its interesting that step by step a formidable European defence is being built and by the end of this other European countries will be learning off the Ukrainians - if they aren't already.

There was mutual exchange of info on fighter training progs and captured Russian tec has gone West for checks or info has.

Same US weapon fragments going into Russia - China analysis

[pig]

2 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

There was mutual exchange of info on fighter training progs and captured Russian tec has gone West for checks or info has.

Same US weapon fragments going into Russia - China analysis

I remember a podcast where the gist of it was the MoD were providing training without appreciating that as the soldiers had been through months of the toughest war already, actually they were well past basic training to the point they could offer the instructors valuable insight. Copy-paste across the army at all levels and I’m wondering rather then a simple ‘white saviour’ act this is a two way street of value to everybody.

[Peter Hun]

3 hours ago, Sackboii said:

Gee I could watch the first 5 seconds of that over and over again for hours. 

Ukraine claiming 34 dead, 105 injured.

[Up the spout]

On 22/09/2023 at 17:25, zugzwang said:

How will the Biden adminstration cope with its loss in the Ukraine?

Seymour Hersh's latest. 👇

 

https://archive.ph/wLTiA#selection-559.0-755.221

Next Tuesday will be the anniversary of the Biden administration’s destruction of three of the four pipelines of Nord Stream 1 and 2. There is more I have to say about it, but it will have to wait. Why? Because the war between Russia and Ukraine, with the White House continuing to reject any talk of a ceasefire, is at a turning point. There are significant elements in the American intelligence community, relying on field reports and technical intelligence, who believe that the demoralized Ukraine army has given up on the possibility of overcoming the heavily mined three-tier Russian defense lines and taking the war to Crimea and the four oblasts seized and annexed by Russia. The reality is that Volodymyr Zelensky’s battered army no longer has any chance of a victory.

The war continues, I have been told by an official with access to current intelligence, because Zelensky insists that it must. There is no discussion in his headquarters or in the Biden White House of a ceasefire and no interest in talks that could lead to an end to the slaughter. “It’s all lies,” the official said, speaking of the Ukrainian claims of incremental progress in the offensive that has suffered staggering losses, while gaining ground in a few scattered areas that the Ukrainian military measures in meters per week. “Let’s be clear,” the official said. “Putin did a stupid and self-destructive act in starting the war. He thought he had a magical power and that all that he wanted was going to work out.” Russia’s initial attack, the official added, was poorly planned, understaffed, and led to unnecessary losses. “He was lied to by his generals and began the war with no logistics—no way of resupplying his troops.” Many of the offending generals were summarily dismissed.

“Yes,” the official said, “Putin did something stupid, no matter how provoked, by violating the UN charter and so did we”—meaning President Biden’s decision to wage a proxy war with Russia by funding Zelensky and his military. “And so now we have to paint him black, with the help of the media, in order to justify our mistake.” He was referring to a secret disinformation operation that was aimed at diminishing Putin, undertaken by the CIA in coordination with elements of British intelligence. The successful operation led major media outlets here and in London to report that the Russian president was suffering from varied illnesses that included blood disorders and a serious cancer. One oft-quoted story had Putin being treated by heavy doses of steroids. Not all were fooled. The Guardian skeptically reported in May of 2022 that the rumors “spanned the gamut: Vladimir Putin is suffering from cancer or Parkinson’s disease, say unconfirmed and unverified reports.” But many major news organizations took the bait. In June 2022, Newsweek splashed what it billed a major scoop, citing unnamed sources saying that Putin had undergone treatment two months earlier for advanced cancer: “Putin’s grip is strong but no longer absolute. The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense. . . . everyone sensing that the end is near.”

“There were some early Ukrainian penetrations in the opening days of the June offensive,” the official said, “at or near” the heavily trapped first of Russia’s three formidable concrete barriers of defense, “and the Russians retreated to sucker them in. And they all got killed.” After weeks of high casualties and little progress, along with horrific losses to tanks and armored vehicles, he said, major elements of the Ukrainian army, without declaring so, virtually canceled the offensive. The two villages that the Ukrainian army recently claimed as captured “are so tiny that they couldn’t fit between two Burma-Shave signs”—referring to billboards that seemed to be on every American highway after World War II.

A byproduct of the Biden administration’s neocon hostility to Russia and China—exemplified by the remarks of Secretary of State Tony Blinken, who has repeatedly stated that he will not currently countenance a ceasefire in Ukraine—has been a significant split in the intelligence community. One casualty are the secret National Intelligence Estimates that have delineated the parameters of American foreign policy for decades. Some key offices in the CIA have refused, in many cases, to participate in the NIE process because of profound political disagreement with the administration’s aggressive foreign policy. One recent failure involved a planned NIE that dealt with the outcome of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
I have reported for many weeks on the longstanding disagreement between the CIA and other elements of the intelligence community on the prognosis of the current war in the Ukraine. CIA analysts have consistently been far more skeptical than their counterparts at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) on the prospect for a Ukraine success. The American media has ignored the dispute, but the London-headquartered Economist, whose well-informed reporters do not get bylines, has not. One sign of the internal tension inside the American community emerged in the magazine’s September 9 edition when Trent Maul, the DIA’s director of analysis, gave an extraordinary on-the-record interview to the Economist in which he defended his agency’s optimistic reporting on the Ukraine war and its troubled counteroffensive. It was, as the Economist observed in a headline, “A rare interview.” It also passed unnoticed by America’s premiere newspapers.

Maul acknowledged that the DIA “got it wrong” in its reporting on the “will to fight” of America’s allies when the US-trained and -financed armies in Iraq and Afghanistan “crumbled almost overnight.” Maul took issue with CIA complaints—though the agency was not cited by name—about the Ukrainian military leadership’s lack of skill and their tactics in the current counteroffensive. He told the Economist that Ukraine’s recent military successes were “significant” and gave its forces a 40 to 50 percent probability of breaking through Russia’s three-tiered defense lines by the end of this year. He warned, however, the Economist reported, that “limited ammunition and worsening weather will make this ‘very difficult.’”
Zelensky, in an interview with the Economist published a week later, acknowledged that he had detected—how could he not?—what the magazine quoted him as saying was “a change of mood among some of his partners.” Zelensky also acknowledged that what he called his nation’s “recent difficulties” on the battlefield were seen by some as a reason to begin serious end-of-war negotiations with Russia. He called this “a bad moment” because Russia “sees the same.” But he again made clear that peace talks are not on the table, and he issued a new threat to those leaders in the region, whose countries are hosting Ukrainian refugees and who want, as the CIA has reported to Washington, an end to the war.

Zelensky warned in the interview, as the Economist wrote: “There is no way of predicting how the millions of Ukrainian refugees in European countries would react to their country being abandoned.” Zelensky said the Ukrainian refugees have “behaved well . . . and are grateful” to those who have sheltered them, but it would not be a “good story” for Europe if a Ukrainian defeat “were to drive the people into a corner.” It was nothing less than a threat of internal insurrection.
Zelensky’s message this week to the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York offered little new and, the Washington Post reported, he received the obligatory “warm welcome” from those in attendance. But, the Post noted, “he delivered his address to a half-full house, with many delegations declining to appear and listen to what he had to say.” Leaders of some developing nations, the report added, were “frustrated” that the multiple billions being spent without serious accountability by the Biden administration to finance the Ukraine war was diminishing support for their own struggles to deal with “a warming world, confronting poverty and ensuring a more secure life for their citizens.”
President Biden, in his earlier speech to the General Assembly, did not deal with Ukraine’s perilous position in the war with Russia but renewed his resounding support for Ukraine and insisted that “Russia alone bears responsibility for this war”—ignoring, as the leaders of many developing nations do not, three decades of NATO expansion to the east after and the Obama administration’s covert involvement in the overthrow of a pro-Russian government in Ukraine in 2014.
The president may be right on the merits but the rest of the world remembers, as this White House seems not to, that it was America that chose to make war in Iraq and Afghanistan, with little regard for the merits of its justification for doing so.
There was no talk from the president of the need for an immediate ceasefire in a war that cannot be won by Ukraine and is adding to the pollution that has caused the current climate crisis engulfing the planet. Biden, with the support of Secretary Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan—but diminishing support elsewhere in America—has turned his unrelenting financial and moral support for the Ukraine war into a do-or-die issue for his re-election.

Meanwhile, a relentless Zelensky, in an interview last week with a fawning correspondent of 60 Minutes, once the pinnacle of aggressive American journalism, depicted Putin as another Hitler and falsely insisted that Ukraine had the initiative in its current faltering war with Russia.

Asked by the CBS correspondent, Scott Pelley, if he thought “the threat of nuclear war is behind us,” Zelensky responded: “I think he’s going to continue threatening. He is waiting for the United States to become less stable. He thinks that’s going to happen during the US election. He will be looking for instability in Europe and the United States of America. He will use the risk of using nuclear weapons to fuel that. He will keep on threatening.”

The American intelligence official I spoke with spent the early years of his career working against Soviet aggression and spying has respect for Putin’s intellect but contempt for his decision to go to war with Ukraine and to initiate the death and destruction that war brings. But, as he told me, “The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going.

“The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House.”

 

Ukraine's advances are accelerating, and once they banish the ruZZIan drunks and sociopathic brutes and slobs Ukraine will be free of their pollution, rubbish, dread bodies, and desperate empty vodka bottles out, it will more peaceful, cleaner, safer, less corrupt, and I will definitely visit for holidays.

[Staffsknot]

37 minutes ago, pig said:

I remember a podcast where the gist of it was the MoD were providing training without appreciating that as the soldiers had been through months of the toughest war already, actually they were well past basic training to the point they could offer the instructors valuable insight. Copy-paste across the army at all levels and I’m wondering rather then a simple ‘white saviour’ act this is a two way street of value to everybody.

Well actually it was more a case of they had combat experience but were often using the Soviet era tactics with a little adaptation Ukr had already.

The training was toget them to act, think and fight like a NATO force and that was the sole aim.

Many things you would encounter in Warsaw Pact forces were regarded as cowboy practice in West. Largely because they got you killed eventually.

When Poland was still largely adopting NATO methodology and ways it had some soldiers who still did legacy ways of doing things that tbh lazy / shortsighted / cost cutting and shortcuts that would get people killed. Didn't mean individual soldiers were bad or inexperienced just there was a system that let it happen so it happened. Grenades were the big one as there was a real casualness and TV style hook it by the fly off lever to your kit

The information on Russian kit and tactics is useful but learning what two Soviet equipped and largely Soviet style tactically lead forces do to each other in a given situation isn't as helpful as you think.

There was a step change in doctrine and for a bit there was resentment at it as some in the UAF felt they were going back to basics when they'd been fighting already.

Where useful info is available it was being exchanged but as say initially it seems resentment at being 'in training' again and taken back to the basics of full routine, kit handling, field routine room clearances and patrolling. This is from people involved in training I spoke to but its a small sample so poss one cadre.

The Russians still use their system...

[pig]

1 hour ago, Staffsknot said:

Well actually it was more a case of they had combat experience but were often using the Soviet era tactics with a little adaptation Ukr had already.

The training was toget them to act, think and fight like a NATO force and that was the sole aim.

Many things you would encounter in Warsaw Pact forces were regarded as cowboy practice in West. Largely because they got you killed eventually.

When Poland was still largely adopting NATO methodology and ways it had some soldiers who still did legacy ways of doing things that tbh lazy / shortsighted / cost cutting and shortcuts that would get people killed. Didn't mean individual soldiers were bad or inexperienced just there was a system that let it happen so it happened. Grenades were the big one as there was a real casualness and TV style hook it by the fly off lever to your kit

The information on Russian kit and tactics is useful but learning what two Soviet equipped and largely Soviet style tactically lead forces do to each other in a given situation isn't as helpful as you think.

There was a step change in doctrine and for a bit there was resentment at it as some in the UAF felt they were going back to basics when they'd been fighting already.

Where useful info is available it was being exchanged but as say initially it seems resentment at being 'in training' again and taken back to the basics of full routine, kit handling, field routine room clearances and patrolling. This is from people involved in training I spoke to but its a small sample so poss one cadre.

The Russians still use their system...

Well thats an interesting nuance at that level of training -  as at a more global level the Ukranians problem reputedly is that they don't have the 'normal' NATO spectrum of resource available to them -  commentators with NATO backgrounds have said what they are trying to do is extremely difficult eg NATO manoeuvres without air cover, hence the need to adapt their strategy to what they've got.

[zugzwang]

Just now, pig said:

Well thats an interesting nuance at that level of training -  as at a more global level the Ukranians problem reputedly is that they don't have the 'normal' NATO spectrum of resource available to them -  commentators with NATO backgrounds have said what they are trying to do is extremely difficult eg NATO manoeuvres without air cover, hence the need to adapt their strategy to what they've got.

What they're trying to do is impossible, which is why half a million of them have already been put into the meatgrinder and reduced to plasma.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

14 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

What they're trying to do is impossible, which is why half a million of them have already been put into the meatgrinder and reduced to plasma.

No no nooo, you got it all wrong, WE are WINNING!!!
All narratives converge at the 'winning'.
What we are winning and at what human cost... just don't go there.

[Sackboii]

58 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

What they're trying to do is impossible, which is why half a million of them have already been put into the meatgrinder and reduced to plasma.

You must be getting confused with ruZZia.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

7 hours ago, Sackboii said:

Gee I could watch the first 5 seconds of that over and over again for hours. 

Getting hard over a storm shadow missile, hmm, that's a new one. 🤏job.
don't care if I do go blind...

[zugzwang]

27 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

You must be getting confused with ruZZia.

The Americans have destroyed the Ukraine as they did Afghanistan and Iraq. That's the truth of it.

[Staffsknot]

9 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The Americans have destroyed the Ukraine as they did Afghanistan and Iraq. That's the truth of it.

Nope you are again confused that's Russia, but then someone who once said they wish collective harm upon all Americans is always going to be a dim xenophobe

Now you've lost your way from howling like a woowoo in the Russell Brand thread so scuttle back