dugsbody Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, dugsbody said: The question shouldn't be how often he has been correct but how often he has been incorrect. It's easy to always predict things and then silently drop the predictions that fail. 18 minutes ago, Warlord said: he has been correct for a long time. .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d49b537a-95f8-4e1a-b4b1-19f0c44d751e FT: Dear Joe Biden, deficits still matter ... The average person understands that there is no free lunch. The path to prosperity cannot be so easy as to just print and spend. If he relies on low rates to fund further massive government spending increases, Mr Biden will double down on policies that have magnified the problems he aims to fix: weak growth, financial instability and rising inequality. Decades of constant stimulus have left capitalism weaker, less dynamic and less fair, fuelling angry populism. Deficits matter for the damage they are already inflicting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Terry Smith's annual newsletter came out today - here's his deliberately vague prediction: there are some clear signs that existing trends have been accelerated by COVID. For example: • E-commerce • Online working from remote locations using the cloud or distributed computing • Home cooking and food delivery • Online schooling and medicine • Social media and communications • Pets — which have become more important in isolation and when their owners are at home more • Automation and AI The result is that many people have become more productive. Salespeople can visit many more clients if video conferencing is acceptable and at virtually no incremental cost. We receive reports of factories which we are told are operating with 50% staffing due to social distancing rules but which have more or less maintained production. I wonder what conclusion that leads to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Si1 said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d49b537a-95f8-4e1a-b4b1-19f0c44d751e FT: Dear Joe Biden, deficits still matter ... The average person understands that there is no free lunch. The path to prosperity cannot be so easy as to just print and spend. If he relies on low rates to fund further massive government spending increases, Mr Biden will double down on policies that have magnified the problems he aims to fix: weak growth, financial instability and rising inequality. Decades of constant stimulus have left capitalism weaker, less dynamic and less fair, fuelling angry populism. Deficits matter for the damage they are already inflicting. It was Dick Cheney who said "deficits don't matter". Reagan ran up a $1 trillion deficit now their deficit is $25 trillion and Biden wants to add more. Sooner or later inflation will show up . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Warlord said: It was Dick Cheney who said "deficits don't matter". Reagan ran up a $1 trillion deficit now their deficit is $25 trillion and Biden wants to add more. Sooner or later inflation will show up . That's fine as long as real interest rates are falling. For various reasons I suspect the long term trajectory of real interest rates is either falling or remaining low. But that doesn't mean they can't overshoot and then correct upwards, clearing out the herd in the process. Which I think is currently due. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Oh, and Jim Rogers thinks we're due an enormous bear market in everything soon, when market interest rates tick up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Locke said: Sorry, I can't understand you when Boris' nuts are filling your mouth. I have little time for Boris. I am just pointing out that in the face of infectious diseases weak lockdowns have historically been shown to result in greater suppression of economic activity as while some will take part in risky activity, promoting spread, many will not. If you look at the statistics on economic activity, you can see this was already happening prior to the lockdown last March. There will come a point where the economic damage from an enforced lockdown will be less than a laissez faire option. As it is, the UK's lockdown has not been strict, timely or structured, so even more reason not to agree with BoJo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, NobodyInParticular said: I have little time for Boris. I am just pointing out that in the face of infectious diseases weak lockdowns have historically been shown to result in greater suppression of economic activity as while some will take part in risky activity, promoting spread, many will not. If you look at the statistics on economic activity, you can see this was already happening prior to the lockdown last March. There will come a point where the economic damage from an enforced lockdown will be less than a laissez faire option. Agreed, it's not a lockdown vs economy question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Several significant mainstream commentators calling inflation for the next few years: https://amp.ft.com/content/6536113f-f509-41e2-bee0-597ed90843b6 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/17/inflation-not-dead-thought-merely-resting/ Of course the timing of when that may cause an asset crash is hard to tell. May be this year, or next, or the year after... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) On 17/01/2021 at 10:46, mrlegend123 said: I listen to his podcasts weekly. He is really good. I am getting out of the US markets because of Biden's corp tax increase which will reduce company earnings by at least 11%. We will see a stock market correction at minimum. Whilst I'm sure Biden's increased taxes will see a correction, his increased stimulus first may see more inflation of the bubbles. The question is - when will it correct? (I really don't know) Edited January 21, 2021 by Si1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 On 20/01/2021 at 11:57, Si1 said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d49b537a-95f8-4e1a-b4b1-19f0c44d751e FT: Dear Joe Biden, deficits still matter ... The average person understands that there is no free lunch. The path to prosperity cannot be so easy as to just print and spend. If he relies on low rates to fund further massive government spending increases, Mr Biden will double down on policies that have magnified the problems he aims to fix: weak growth, financial instability and rising inequality. Decades of constant stimulus have left capitalism weaker, less dynamic and less fair, fuelling angry populism. Deficits matter for the damage they are already inflicting. The economy/markets stopped being an actual thing that follows the 'rules' at least as far back as 2008, if not earlier. Since then it's lived on printed money and both overt and covert support for the financial system. Good old fiat currency, showing why the bankers like it so much. The only question is how much longer they can keep the plates spinning for. This whole COVID crisis has provided TPTB with an excellent excuse to apply a bit more spin to them and keep the show on the road probably for a few years longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warlord Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, Si1 said: Whilst I'm sure Biden's increased taxes will see a correction, his increased stimulus first may see more inflation of the bubbles. The question is - when will it correct? (I really don't know) Predicting is a mugs game but some people who i respect say an uptick around Easter followed by a "dark winter" See: https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/238162-you-thought-2020-was-bad-2021-will-be-‘dreadful’-unprecedented/ Edited January 21, 2021 by Warlord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Warlord said: Predicting is a mugs game but some people who i respect say an uptick around Easter followed by a "dark winter" See: https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/238162-you-thought-2020-was-bad-2021-will-be-‘dreadful’-unprecedented/ Hmmm....that is definitely the consensus I am getting from those who follow trends closely and do well investing. The expect an upturn and then a big pile of sh1te 😆😆 I would also caveat that without exception that not one of them are 100% certain about anything anymore notably what economic rules apply anymore. ie they all have self doubt. Edited January 21, 2021 by Pop321 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Warlord said: Predicting is a mugs game but some people who i respect say an uptick around Easter followed by a "dark winter" See: https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/238162-you-thought-2020-was-bad-2021-will-be-‘dreadful’-unprecedented/ I'm not sure I trust Celente's opinion - but it is consistent with other commentators in the field Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Frugality Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 On 17/01/2021 at 22:06, MARTINX9 said: So you tax them after they die - by increasing the inheritance tax on their estate - so their younger kids and grandkids will in fact pay the tax. So it won't affect them personally one bit. Can I also defer my taxes until after I die? LOL such a sense of entitlement as I've said many times.. Will I benefit financially from death of family members, yes. Is this right? No. Why should you be entitled to it just because you were born in the right family.. Would happily forgo any inheritance IF everyone else did. You'll see who's cruising by in life and who's not.. Maybe you should look at the entitled kids you've procreated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Money Frugality said: LOL such a sense of entitlement as I've said many times.. Will I benefit financially from death of family members, yes. Is this right? No. Why should you be entitled to it just because you were born in the right family.. Would happily forgo any inheritance IF everyone else did. You'll see who's cruising by in life and who's not.. Maybe you should look at the entitled kids you've procreated. because IHT is theft. it should be zero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, longgone said: because IHT is theft. it should be zero. Is general taxation theft too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, IMHAL said: Is general taxation theft too? sure is. especially when taxed multiple times on the same money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Frugality Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, longgone said: because IHT is theft. it should be zero. From whom? Answer that and you see the entitlement. You've clearly never met champagne socialist millennials that are bred in conservative families. Quickly changes to I'm alright Jack on wealth transfer. Make your own money, sponging off parents is the same as sponging off the state.. Get what you're given, dont ask or expect.. Reminds me of the meme below; funny when it comes to capital. Edited January 21, 2021 by Money Frugality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Money Frugality said: From whom? Answer that and you see the entitlement. You've clearly never met champagne socialist millennials that are bred in conservative families. Quickly changes to I'm alright Jack on wealth transfer. Make your own money, sponging off parents is the same as sponging off the state.. Get what you're given, dont ask or expect.. Reminds me of the meme below; funny how manners go out the window when it comes to capital. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Have you ever pretended not to look at the biscuits being handed around the room and acted surprised when you got offered one? <a href="https://t.co/UFEkdQXSNd">pic.twitter.com/UFEkdQXSNd</a></p>— 𝓍𝑜𝓍𝑜 (@Rlawsonnnn) <a href="https://twitter.com/Rlawsonnnn/status/1185267515380948992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> so what happens to the money when taken back by the state after death ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Frugality Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 44 minutes ago, longgone said: so what happens to the money when taken back by the state after death ? Lets talk about the retirement age increase the boomers caused.. It's not about life expectancy its about the underfunding of pretty much everything whilst enjoying the existing benefits. Your inheritance tax is payment for the ladder that has been pulled up and the services that have been crippled in order to keep you on this earth for longer *with the same benefits* at the cost of your children's income and retirement.. So yes, it is being entitled to expect anything. Like I said, I'll pay mine, if everyone else pays theirs. If you cant survive without mummy and daddy funding, tough. Make better choices. Your parents should have left you with knowledge not cash.. Teach a man to fish etc. Edited January 21, 2021 by Money Frugality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Money Frugality said: Lets talk about the retirement age increase the boomers caused.. It's not about life expectancy its about the underfunding of pretty much everything whilst enjoying the existing benefits. Your inheritance tax is payment for the ladder that has been pulled up and the services that have been crippled in order to keep you on this earth for longer *with the same benefits* at the cost of your children's income and retirement.. So yes, it is being entitled to expect anything. Like I said, I'll pay mine, if everyone else pays theirs. If you cant survive without mummy and daddy funding, tough. Make better choices. Your parents should have left you with knowledge not cash.. Teach a man to fish etc. what ladder what services ? so you are saying someone should work their entire life for nothing basically and just give the whole lot to the state. why work and why spend then. no point owning anything if that is the case. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 57 minutes ago, longgone said: sure is. especially when taxed multiple times on the same money. I'm curious. No roads, state schools, health and all the other services you use and take for granted. Who do you expect to pay for and adminster these? Do you expect someone else to pay for it? Or do you want some sort of pay as you use service for everything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, Money Frugality said: Lets talk about the retirement age increase the boomers caused.. It's not about life expectancy its about the underfunding of pretty much everything whilst enjoying the existing benefits. Your inheritance tax is payment for the ladder that has been pulled up and the services that have been crippled in order to keep you on this earth for longer *with the same benefits* at the cost of your children's income and retirement.. So yes, it is being entitled to expect anything. Like I said, I'll pay mine, if everyone else pays theirs. If you cant survive without mummy and daddy funding, tough. Make better choices. Your parents should have left you with knowledge not cash.. Teach a man to fish etc. Fishing is one thing. Selling the fish... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, IMHAL said: I'm curious. No roads, state schools, health and all the other services you use and take for granted. Who do you expect to pay for and adminster these? Do you expect someone else to pay for it? Or do you want some sort of pay as you use service for everything? I'm pretty sure Santa and the Easter Bunny will sort out roads and so on for free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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