Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Peter Schiff: We're about to suffer WORSE than I thought


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 145
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

7 minutes ago, mrlegend123 said:

I listen to his podcasts weekly. He is really good.

I am getting out of the US markets because of Biden's corp tax increase which will reduce company earnings by at least 11%. We will see a stock market correction at minimum. 

Good, if there is. Buying opportunity nd money to be made.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, RS chickened out implementing a wealth tax as he doesnt want to upset the tax payer. 

But the common tax payer is thick as the government will just use inflation without increasing IRs (can't any ways due to high debt levels) to get rid of national debt instead of the wealth tax. 

Tax payer will end up paying the same but will it work at the future unemployment level? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've started listening to him again after a break (he does get a bit repetitive).

 

The thing is, the dust hasn't really settled following the Corona debacle.

 

I suspect, we need 1 year of "normal" to see what the damage is.

 

My guess is, it is a lot worse than expected, likely going to be worse for the UK and EU rather than the US.

Edited by reddog
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, reddog said:

I've started listening to him again after a break (he does get a bit repetitive).

 

The thing is, the dust hasn't really settled following the Corona debacle.

 

I suspect, we need 1 year of "normal" to see what the damage is.

 

My guess is, it is a lot worse than expected, likely going to be worse for the UK and EU rather than the US.

I agree, I'm moving into the short-term money markets for 2021 to see what the crack is and bank my 2020 gains of at least 30-40%.

I am keeping a close eye on the dollar index and 10 yr yields. I do not bother looking at the official inflation figures. It normally starts in the US (reserve currency) and ripple out to other countries/currencies. 

I think the smart investors have left the markets and retail investors have been sucked in, the playbook of 2000 and 2008. Also, most market news is negative. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps!

Senior government sources told the Sunday Times that Sunak will also look to increase corporation tax in the Budget if the UK’s Covid vaccine rollout remains on track.

The Treasury is also reportedly looking at abolishing stamp duty and council tax, at some point later this year, and instead implement a national property tax.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/rishi-sunak-eyes-uk-corporation-tax-hike-in-march-budget/ar-BB1cPuDx?li=AAwnS0s&ocid=mailsignout

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, mrlegend123 said:

Also, RS chickened out implementing a wealth tax as he doesnt want to upset the tax payer. 

But the common tax payer is thick as the government will just use inflation without increasing IRs (can't any ways due to high debt levels) to get rid of national debt instead of the wealth tax. 

Tax payer will end up paying the same but will it work at the future unemployment level? 

Only in their dreams can the government have that sort of control over inflation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Warlord said:

Schiff explains the "inflation tax very well and the same thing is happening here with our govt.  

What you need is some store of value, one that cant be debased, is scarce, with a transparent mechanism to determine exact supply worldwide, so it is never swamped in the derivitives market with Paper. 

Hmmmmmm. 

Sounds like Bitcoin. 

Everyone should invest at least 2% of their net worth, now, before its to late, as protection.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, wighty said:

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps!

Senior government sources told the Sunday Times that Sunak will also look to increase corporation tax in the Budget if the UK’s Covid vaccine rollout remains on track.

The Treasury is also reportedly looking at abolishing stamp duty and council tax, at some point later this year, and instead implement a national property tax.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/rishi-sunak-eyes-uk-corporation-tax-hike-in-march-budget/ar-BB1cPuDx?li=AAwnS0s&ocid=mailsignout

So what's the national property tax going to be🤔.   

One way of raising the existing council tax is to reduce central gov funding to councils and raise the limit councils can raise that tax by and blame councils for the rises.  Renaming council tax something else might be used to hide this or any other tinkering.

Of course "looking at" doesn't mean "will implement" though.

Edited by nightowl
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, markyh said:

What you need is some store of value, one that cant be debased, is scarce, with a transparent mechanism to determine exact supply worldwide, so it is never swamped in the derivitives market with Paper. 

Hmmmmmm. 

Sounds like Bitcoin. 

Everyone should invest at least 2% of their net worth, now, before its to late, as protection.  

Sounds more like gold or silver. You have to be seriously demented to believe that something that swings up and down 40% in price and has been around for only 10 years is a "store" of value .  Sorry Mark, nice try.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the video Schiff describes the Fed financing half the government spending through buying the bonds.  The same is happening here with the BoE .I think they're at a third rather than half but it is still ultimately expanding the money supply. Eventually inflation will show up here in consumer prices and will go through the roof .

 

Edited by Warlord
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some of the burden should be borne by those aged over 60 or so, the ones who have had their lives saved as a direct result of one year of restrictions on people who did not or would not need NHS care.

Hit them with 20% tax due on their estate when they die.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

Some of the burden should be borne by those aged over 60 or so, the ones who have had their lives saved as a direct result of one year of restrictions on people who did not or would not need NHS care.

Hit them with 20% tax due on their estate when they die.

It should anyway since they have all the assets. In politically very difficult though, I should think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Different take from AEP:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/17/bidens-mega-stimulus-widens-staggering-gap-fiscal-support-us/

"The Biden administration is led by Obama-era veterans, battle scarred by the global financial crisis and its destructive aftermath. This time they are determined to “go big” early and blast the US economy out of its low-growth deflationary malaise. Their assumption - supported by Moody’s Analytics and Oxford Economics, among others, but not all economists - is that the debt will pay for itself over time through higher growth."

 

He also goes on to criticise the ECB for funding its stimulus package via QE, but not the US for doing frankly some of the same. I'm not saying I know the answer but I do look forward to your opinions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Different take from AEP:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/17/bidens-mega-stimulus-widens-staggering-gap-fiscal-support-us/

"The Biden administration is led by Obama-era veterans, battle scarred by the global financial crisis and its destructive aftermath. This time they are determined to “go big” early and blast the US economy out of its low-growth deflationary malaise. Their assumption - supported by Moody’s Analytics and Oxford Economics, among others, but not all economists - is that the debt will pay for itself over time through higher growth."

 

He also goes on to criticise the ECB for funding its stimulus package via QE, but not the US for doing frankly some of the same. I'm not saying I know the answer but I do look forward to your opinions.

Biden wants a 2 trillion stimulus which won't work and fuel inflation as Schiff says. It's going to come sooner or later 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Different take from AEP:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/17/bidens-mega-stimulus-widens-staggering-gap-fiscal-support-us/

"The Biden administration is led by Obama-era veterans, battle scarred by the global financial crisis and its destructive aftermath. This time they are determined to “go big” early and blast the US economy out of its low-growth deflationary malaise. Their assumption - supported by Moody’s Analytics and Oxford Economics, among others, but not all economists - is that the debt will pay for itself over time through higher growth."

 

He also goes on to criticise the ECB for funding its stimulus package via QE, but not the US for doing frankly some of the same. I'm not saying I know the answer but I do look forward to your opinions.

The US is putting in much more direct stimulus (like a kind of universal income) rather than just QE which creates a deflationary effect and which is constrained for political reasons in the EU.
 

The problem I see is that all the presumptions rely on a return to growth and that was actually in decline across the world even before COVID struck. For the past couple of decades in the west we have used credit to boost low rates of growth, essentially spending future income to create growth in the present. However we live on a finite planet with finite resources and everyone chasing sources of energy, water, minerals etc. Money is just a claim on goods and services and boosting it will not create new sources of energy or anything else. I see that on another thread here it talked about a population exodus from the U.K. of about 1.6 million. That could knock 2% off GDP for a start.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, markyh said:

What you need is some store of value, one that cant be debased, is scarce, with a transparent mechanism to determine exact supply worldwide, so it is never swamped in the derivitives market with Paper. 

Hmmmmmm. 

Sounds like Bitcoin. 

You want one that is widely accepted, durable, carries little counter party risk and not at risk and not subject to huge speculative swings. I'm not gold bug, but it fits the bill far better and the risk of it being worth $0 or be inaccessible a week on Tuesday is basically 0.

5 hours ago, markyh said:

Everyone should invest at least 2% of their net worth, now, before its to late

If it is possible to be 'too late' then it means it is likely to be fairly illiquid, thus a poor choice for a store of value that you might want to access. It might be worth 2% of liquid holdings as a gamble. Net worth, that's £5000 to £10000. Most people don't have £5000 to £10000 sitting around they might be prepared to lose. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, GeneCernan said:

Some of the burden should be borne by those aged over 60 or so, the ones who have had their lives saved as a direct result of one year of restrictions on people who did not or would not need NHS care.

Hit them with 20% tax due on their estate when they die.

They are dead. It's not really taxing them if they are dead. It's a tax on recipients. In any case you are basically suggesting what is already the case, except perhaps limits. It also creates a perverse incentive for the government. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, GeneCernan said:

Some of the burden should be borne by those aged over 60 or so, the ones who have had their lives saved as a direct result of one year of restrictions on people who did not or would not need NHS care.

Hit them with 20% tax due on their estate when they die.

So you tax them after they die - by increasing the inheritance tax on their estate - so their younger kids and grandkids will in fact pay the tax. So it won't affect them personally one bit.

Can I also defer my taxes until after I die?

Edited by MARTINX9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.