longgone Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 a forced auction sale of a house without basic amenities to obtain a mortgage will be a good start to price discovery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 14 hours ago, jaseywasey said: Expect to see the adoption of a "make do & mend culture"; the end of globalisation, the end of cheap international travel, the end of immigration and the start of countries making their own products that are expensive, but built to last. And laws passed to ensure the UK can produce enough food and medical equipment for its own needs. Won't happen, despite it being a wet dream for some people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 13 hours ago, longgone said: nope seems those advocating high inflation probably own a home and have money invested in stocks. Not advocating it, just predicting. Governments could not have shown their hand more clearly over the last 15 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 1 minute ago, dugsbody said: Not advocating it, just predicting. Governments could not have shown their hand more clearly over the last 15 years. But how are they going to keep doing it ? wages don`t go up. only way would probably bring in a Citizens income Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, longgone said: But how are they going to keep doing it ? wages don`t go up. only way would probably bring in a Citizens income I think you mean real wages don't go up and that is precisely what we're saying. Nominal wages go up but because of inflation, your purchasing power does not. eg: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna or https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/supplementaryanalysisofaverageweeklyearnings/august2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, dugsbody said: I think you mean real wages don't go up and that is precisely what we're saying. Nominal wages go up but because of inflation, your purchasing power does not. eg: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna or https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/supplementaryanalysisofaverageweeklyearnings/august2018 i have to disagree the job boards and agency pimps have a different set of rules. there has been no wage inflation at all for over a decade. only inflation of assets, borrowing can`t be made cheaper hence HTB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Voice of Doom said: And the Great Depression was, funnily enough, deflationary. Can we really compare then with now? We have a fait based currency and an electronic printing press. Yes, we are currently in deflation. Don't count out... QE to infinity and beyond! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 1 hour ago, longgone said: i have to disagree the job boards and agency pimps have a different set of rules. there has been no wage inflation at all for over a decade. only inflation of assets, borrowing can`t be made cheaper hence HTB Well, I showed you the stats, can't do much more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryrot Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 OP wrote: "Just spoke to a surveyor who told me he could no longer value houses - he said he thought values may be down by 25%-50% yet he had no real idea..." ??? Why dpes'nt the surveyor follow the standard valuing process? (5 minute look at similar houses in a local EA and add 10%?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voice of Doom Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 (edited) "Can we really compare then with now? We have a fait based currency and an electronic printing press. Yes, we are currently in deflation. Don't count out..." Fair point about comparability. We were on the gold standard. Re. QE, can it avert deflation in the short term if unemployment sharply rises and businesses go to the wall? QE doesn't create demand and there will be very little in the near term. I'm agnostic as to whether policy responses end up creating inflation in the medium- to long-term though. Edited April 4, 2020 by Voice of Doom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 17 hours ago, Dorkins said: How are they going to stop the deflation, the central bank pays the bill on every contract? At that point there is no economy, just fraud and anarchy. Inflation of the money supply??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Well, I showed you the stats, can't do much more. stats don`t always manifest into peoples pay packets is the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, longgone said: stats don`t always manifest into peoples pay packets is the point. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 3 hours ago, longgone said: i have to disagree the job boards and agency pimps have a different set of rules. there has been no wage inflation at all for over a decade. Mark Gaisford had an interesting recruiters Webinar on linkedin yesterday had 6 recruiters all arguing that recruiters fees couldn't possibly drop as the quality of service would continue, and if anything rates may need to rise due to the skills needed to navigate the worse market conditions. They argued sure some recruiters might drop their rates.... But only because they are weak and don't have a USP. Self important vermin in all sales/consulting/recruiting markets everywhere will be saying the same thing. Some of these markets will be a bloodbath. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 They are vermin and have no USP they need to be gone and HR need to step up again. better off paying you staff 20% more than some spiv 10k to pick words out of a CV and send an email. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Now or never Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 I was in a company meeting two months ago, we were told all recruiting now through HR - no more agencies. Apparently last FY agency cost amounted to over 200K, circa 3K for an advisor role on 16K. Then the lowlife come back and tap them up for another position elsewhere - the cycle starts again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 8 hours ago, Jimmyjammy001 said: If prices fell by 50% in my area it would only bring them back to 2014 levels around when help to buy was introduced. That is awful, where do you live? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 10 hours ago, North London Rent Girl said: Sadly, I agree. 50% would be but a start for many people. I might finally get to use my what-should-be-a-very-good-deposit savings, except I work for myself and am over the threshold so I might need to spend my savings if this thing really runs on. Am glad I developed a philosophical attitude towards my ineligibility to get anything back ever when I bust my wrist and couldn't work for a few months. Worker donkeys of the world unite. We would have to agree on who we want to unite against. For me - everyone who doesn't pay for their own housing and everyone who wants to stop more houses being built! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmyjammy001 Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, iamnumerate said: That is awful, where do you live? South West - 3 bed semis were 150-160k now same ones selling 230-240k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Jimmyjammy001 said: South West - 3 bed semis were 150-160k now same ones selling 230-240k Depressingly I think that sounds cheap. I live in South East London, unless these are really small, you are talking 2003 prices! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 1 hour ago, iamnumerate said: Depressingly I think that sounds cheap. I live in South East London, unless these are really small, you are talking 2003 prices! try south west london 3x as much since HTB i have seen on some houses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirtysteve Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Jimmyjammy001 said: South West - 3 bed semis were 150-160k now same ones selling 230-240k I need to move there. There’s garages where I live fetching that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 10 hours ago, longgone said: try south west london 3x as much since HTB i have seen on some houses. Words fail me - it was not cheap then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 1 hour ago, iamnumerate said: Words fail me - it was not cheap then. indeed average is around 2x the price but on some previously unfashionable areas and roads 3x the price from 2011 have been achievable i can`t see this virus taking much off if i`m truly honest with myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted April 5, 2020 Author Share Posted April 5, 2020 On 03/04/2020 at 20:07, jiltedjen said: I would imagine a slight fall as deposits get eaten by living costs and unemployment and redundancies. but probably only reversing about 2 years of gains. there is. A lot of pent up demand at price levels of even two years ago. the longer the crisis goes on the bigger a deal it will be. Three months of shutdown will wipe off two years off the housing market, anything longer suddenly amplifies the falls. but the amount of printed money thrown at the problem will change a lot, flat out handing every FTB £10k of printed money, that kind of thing There has been so much disruption to the world economy (ongoing - and for how long? 3 years? 2 years? 1 years? Who knows - it'll be very challenging to go back to where we were. The USA, UK, Australia are all uniquely exposed due to failed responses. Laissez faire doesn't work with pandemics, the plonkers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.