Gov HPI report

[user not found]

I couldnt see the HPI stats on BBC news, so guessed they were worse than expected (i.e. better from our perspective!). I tracked down the results, and yes indeed - YOY down to 0.8%, expected 1.3%, but bang on trend

Bring it on

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-summary-october-2019

 

[rantnrave]

England annual change at 0.5%

South East now negative YoY

[rantnrave]

England report

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-england-october-2019/uk-house-price-index-england-october-2019

Flats and maisonettes down 3.7% YoY in England

[user not found]

22 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

England report

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-england-october-2019/uk-house-price-index-england-october-2019

Flats and maisonettes down 3.7% YoY in England

I have the contact details of a buying agent (father of a kid in my daughter's class). Was trying to get me to buy in the summer.... refused to admit that prices were dropping. He specializes in flats. ha ha. I might email him. We're on the coast in west sussex, hour from london.

[Aidan Ap Word]

Huge amount of bear food in this report.

Like the dropping sales volumes (first person to mention Brexit uncertainty causing this owes me £5).

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Aidan Ap Word
Added annotated image.

[Trump Invective]

55 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Huge amount of bear food in this report.

Like the dropping sales volumes (first person to mention Brexit uncertainty causing this owes me £5).

 

Yeah, all about Brexit uncertainty. Brexit uncertainty really affects peoples ability to pay for stuff. The other day I took a pound to the pound shop and couldnt buy anything in there because of brexit uncertainty making my spending power decrease

[copydude]

I notice someone put a 'Really?' flag by the North East.

Maybe it's because it's all buy-to-let up here - Southern landlords buying up streets of ex-miner's terraces. (Like the one I live in.)

[Aidan Ap Word]

22 hours ago, copydude said:

I notice someone put a 'Really?' flag by the North East.

Maybe it's because it's all buy-to-let up here - Southern landlords buying up streets of ex-miner's terraces. (Like the one I live in.)

I added annotation before positing image TBH.

That said: kind of matches up with the drop in flats and maisonettes ... because other stuff increased in price but not enough to offset?

But but but ... with all the amateur landlords selling up ... where are all the tenants going to live? Going to be homeless surely! *sarcasm*.

[Dorkins]

Oxford and Cambridge crashing fairly hard 4-5%pa, nice to see. Surely some of the most out of kilter places in the country in terms of house price to wage ratios.

[zugzwang]

40 year mortgages.

Is it a good idea?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7549887/40-year-mortgages-borrow-80s.htm

Proportion of first-time buyer mortgages by mortgage term 2007-2019  Source: UK Finance   First six months 20 to 25 Years 25  to 30 Years 30 to 35 Years 2007  48% 22% 16% 2008  42% 22% 17% 2009  44% 20% 17% 2010  43% 22% 18% 2011  38% 24% 21% 2012  36% 25% 22% 2013  37% 25% 21% 2014  34% 26% 25% 2015  30% 27% 27% 2016  27% 28% 29% 2017  25% 27% 31% 2018  23% 27% 33% 2019  22% 26% 36%

[Bear Goggles]

On 19/12/2019 at 22:31, Dorkins said:

Oxford and Cambridge crashing fairly hard 4-5%pa, nice to see. Surely some of the most out of kilter places in the country in terms of house price to wage ratios.

I’m in Oxford and I haven’t seen much by the way of falling prices. My guess is that this figure is somewhat skewed by the high end. Properties in the £2m+ bracket following prime central London down.

Probably just a matter of time until it filters down though. 

Edited December 22, 2019 by Bear Goggles

[Innkeeper]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-rise-interest-rates-mortgages-bank-of-england-a9258196.html

So it's taken the BoE ten years to find out what HPCers have known all along.

Who gives these clowns jobs?  

[The Spaniard]

So £1,600,000,000,000, about two thirds of the pounds in circulation, has been borrowed into existence at interest from commercial banks by Joe Public for the purchase of somewhere to live, a basic human need.

The very existence and maintenance of a viable medium of exchange for the UK economy, of an adequate money supply for business and commerce, is based upon keeping the population in fierce competition for 'ownership' of a slave box.

Is the tail wagging the dog?

Why don't we, the UK citizenry, the user base of the pound sterling issue, publicly and debt-free, an adequate, persistently circulating money supply with which to run our productive economy?

Edited December 26, 2019 by The Spaniard

[Pebbles]

That is truly shocking. Those bank of England fools really stagger me. And these people are in charge of our national Bank 

[The Spaniard]

2 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

That is truly shocking. Those bank of England fools really stagger me. And these people are in charge of our national Bank 

Maybe we are collectively the fools for acquiescing to our expensive and controlling 'rent-a-currency' money system?

[Bluestone59]

On 22/12/2019 at 09:11, Bear Goggles said:

I’m in Oxford and I haven’t seen much by the way of falling prices. My guess is that this figure is somewhat skewed by the high end. Properties in the £2m+ bracket following prime central London down.

Probably just a matter of time until it filters down though. 

I was sent click bait the other day saying Oxford prices were now rising faster than almost anywhere, I didn't bother to read it and can't now recall the source.

[bear.getting.old]

Country and government office region	Price	Monthly change	Annual change
England	£248,939	-0.7%	0.5%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 3 - 2019)	£139,951	2.3%	4.0%
Scotland	£153,692	-0.9%	1.4%
Wales	£166,245	0.7%	3.3%
East Midlands	£194,134	-0.7%	1.3%
East of England	£293,928	-0.1%	0.3%
London	£472,232	-1.7%	-1.6%
North East	£129,360	-2.3%	-1.1%
North West	£166,134	-0.6%	1.4%
South East	£323,438	-0.8%	-0.3%
South West	£258,372	-0.8%	0.6%
West Midlands	£198,345	-1.6%	0.2%
Yorkshire and The Humber	£166,904	0.9%	3.2%

[bear.getting.old]

I guess people have been too busy with xmas to take any notice of this report

[bear.getting.old]

16 hours ago, Innkeeper said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-rise-interest-rates-mortgages-bank-of-england-a9258196.html

So it's taken the BoE ten years to find out what HPCers have known all along.

Who gives these clowns jobs?  

You couldn't make it up, talk about find out the obvious. How much are these fools paid to finally come up with that?

[Harry Sacks]

On 26/12/2019 at 10:29, The Spaniard said:

So £1,600,000,000,000, about two thirds of the pounds in circulation, has been borrowed into existence at interest from commercial banks by Joe Public for the purchase of somewhere to live, a basic human need.

The very existence and maintenance of a viable medium of exchange for the UK economy, of an adequate money supply for business and commerce, is based upon keeping the population in fierce competition for 'ownership' of a slave box.

Is the tail wagging the dog?

Why don't we, the UK citizenry, the user base of the pound sterling issue, publicly and debt-free, an adequate, persistently circulating money supply with which to run our productive economy?

There's no profit for the people who pull the strings.

I'm not sure if there would be any economic growth in the UK in the absence of residential land inflation.

Mortgages or QE, the inflation is hidden in assets. For the most part, the gains are never fully realised for the vast majority of people, even after they die.

[ftb_fml]

On 19/12/2019 at 22:31, Dorkins said:

Oxford and Cambridge crashing fairly hard 4-5%pa, nice to see. Surely some of the most out of kilter places in the country in terms of house price to wage ratios.

Heartening on the face of it but certainly with Oxford, while there is a prevailing slight downward trend the small sample size gives a lot of variation in sold prices month to month, with a circa 3-4%  swing in either direction about the mean generally. It seems that for the past 3-4yrs prices have been largely static with a slight overall decline and a lot of noise.

 

On 22/12/2019 at 09:11, Bear Goggles said:

I’m in Oxford and I haven’t seen much by the way of falling prices. My guess is that this figure is somewhat skewed by the high end. Properties in the £2m+ bracket following prime central London down.

Probably just a matter of time until it filters down though. 

Being of little practical interest to me I've paid little attention to the top end so couldn't comment on this; however at the "low" end flats have certainly seen a bit of a pasting - anecdotally I reckon down 20-25% from their 2016 peak although this isn't reflected in the LR data.. perhaps because I'm only looking at the entry level and prices of flats are being maintained overall by stuff higher up the price range..?

 

On 26/12/2019 at 11:38, Bluestone59 said:

I was sent click bait the other day saying Oxford prices were now rising faster than almost anywhere, I didn't bother to read it and can't now recall the source.

Was that the one in the Oxford Mail? If so I took the bait but was relieved to find that it was a comment regarding the past 10yrs or so (which of course we all know about); probably a VI propaganda piece to try and combat the far more recent stalls in the market. Equally the OM published another piece more recently based on Zoopla / Hometrack data that suggested a decline; but again really this was only based on the volatility of figures mentioned above, so other than a possible sentiment-driver was more noise than news. 

All this LR data is certainly promising (if painfully slow) although my concern now is that we might see a short-term sentiment-driven "Brexit bounce" since the election has signalled that we're closer to a resolution, even if that resolution might ultimately cause a significant decline in house prices..